The FTSE100 is taking another hammering this morning after Chinese trading was suspended for the 2nd time in a week. Could be looking at a new 52 week low being set today and a rocky year ahead.
I think we'll see a moderate stock market crash this year, possibly pushing the ftse down into the 4,000s, followed by a small recession perhaps early next year.
Osborne senses the danger and is setting out to manage expectations in his speech today, not that there's a lot he can do about the big troubles in little China or the new economic oil wars.
I think ordinary citizens will be able to ride this one out feeling little impact but the numbers will make grim reading, such a shame for Labour that they've got nobody in place to take advantage of what will be (wrongly) perceived by some as a tory failure on the economy.