Mr Popodopolous

There are specific criteria for what can and can't count for certain Allowables. I still stand by my overall view of £25m or so for a typical year in respect of FFP Allowables. Some individual areas maybe a bit higher, some a bit lower. Basic terms for tbis year. £35m, £35m and £13m £25m + £25m + £25m +£1.4m (Covid claim in 2021-22). £159.4m in aggregated Pre Tax Loss to this year could be the limit. Minus £92.4m already accounted for in 2021-22. The one that surprises me still is a potential to last year. Given the higher Loss Limits, the Lower starting point and the bigger Covid stuff.

Could be. It is the Women's side as such and these Accounts are published that is excludable. I stick by my £25mish for total Allowable expenses in a year. Somewhere between £2.3-3.3m in a a Year. Albeit the charge or Embargo is for figures after these excluded. The Women's side isn't t that huge albeit rising in the Grand Scheme. Accounts for last season aren't there yet.

The apparent -9 limitation is interesting as EFL Championship 3 year fail deductions can rise as high as 21. Albeit that is for the very very worst cases and Clubs voted in more fixed but not entirely fixed or binding levels. Essentially..dunno how it would cut across 2 divisions. £39m 3 Year Limit Excess of £15m+, so just under 40%..-12 prior to mitigating factors. If the case merits no mitigation, then aggravation if needed can push it up to -21. Clubs voted for this in 2018.

Just an example. Just trying to think of what Leicester's angle could be.

By way of example, the working of the Club may show methods that are non-permissible by the Rules which are clear. I dunno selling a Training Ground as I mentioned before...Profit doesn't count towards the Calculations at EFL level and that is crystal clear.

Could do, depends on the size of the Forecast Overspend. It all helps.

Ah interesting segue on all that. When Reading were under their Restrictive FFP Embargo in 2021-22 and 2022-23 they made some notable signings in that context. Rahman- £50k per week, Drinkwater- £120k per week. Season loan each. Their cap without loan fees was £8.5k per week, at most they paid 10% collectively for the pair. Kieran Maguire said Chelsea covered all the wages for at least one. Marina Granovskaia > Kia Joobrachian < Dai Yongge. Essentially he was a mutual friend or Business client Idk of the 2. Same connection got Rahman (again) season long loan and potentially Casadei half-season. Under that tough Embargo. Dai Yongge is Chinese, Abramovich is Russian. You just wonder.

Add-ons accrue as they arise, become due and not before. Base fee would hit the P&L straight away, add-ons as and when they are hit.

I reckon for Leicester it is probably around £25m per annum in FFP Allowables. Swiss Ramble said between £15-20m. Like you I applaud the transparency of Ipswich. Clubs should have to publish, but clubs vote on the Rules as of now and most wouldn't concur I expect.

The other bit about Business Plans is that the EFL can now, for their own clubs mainly, seek to.pre-empt breaches before they happen. In effect the idea is to prevent Breaches before they can occur with agreed Spending Plans etc. Up to 2 years in advance. More restrictive Powers available if clubs don't play ball. FFI exists at both levels but the PL are probably lighter touch with it.

The Business Plan is an interesting element that the media haven't discussed by drawing on past cases enough. The PL appear to have no equivalent fwiw. Birmingham In 2017-18, Birmingham failed the 3 Years ending that year. As well as Points they were under a Business Plan. They got 7 pts for the overspend, 3 more for rising losses and 1 back for cooperation. (£9.5m over the £39m or something). The Business Plan was designed to keep them compliant in 2018-19 and 2019-20. Where the EFL went wrong was to not seek to attach some automatic deduction to it and to stipulate how Compliance should be achieved in a more Binding manner. Birmingham were agitating to get their full Embargo lifted to a softish one after FFP failed and adding Pedersen for a fee when under a Soft Embargo so the EFL arguably had more leverage in Summer 2018. Anyway they were charged with breaching this too some time between Summer 2019 and January 2020 by not selling Che Adams in particular in January 2019 and achieving compliance in late May by selling and leasing back St Andrews. EFL lost their case but Appealed and won! No Sanction was handed down but crucially they won the debate of Binding Commitment vs Best Endeavours in Summer 2020. Reading Much like Birmingham they failed but ran aground massively. £18-19m over £39m limits aka 12 point deduction territory. Like Birmingham they were Embargoed and latterly allowed to add players in very strict terms (6 signings max, No Fees, No Loan Fees, individual wages not exceeding £8.5k per week etc). There was an Agreed Decision whereby Reading got an immediate -6 and had targets to adhere to until end of June 2023 and a Suspended -6 which kicks in at the first sign of fail if either Upper Loss Limits of the Business Plan. It was that or the EFL would have pushed for -12 instantly at a Hearing. This Agreed Decision remained in play until June 2023 and Reading had to cut wage by and to £x, likewise with Amortisation and raise £x in Player Sale Profits. Had to do so in particular by January 2023. Failure to do sees RPTs and Player Sale Profits post March 1st removed from Business Plan and -6 kicks in automatically. However suspended deduction kicking in doesn't water down or remove obligation to comply with FFP for Year ending 2022-23 either ie that in itself can incur Sanctions.

Yeah, it confuses me slightly, we can extrapolate when the numbers are out..clearly if Maddison in 2023-24 then there is a major breach to last year. For simplicity purposes let's assume Maddison in 2022-23 as originally assumed. I reckon Leicester Profit on Disposal this year including Loan Fees but excluding Maddison is probably £45-50m. Projected Accounts would include that and on the basis of future Receipts might either include a Promise to sell £x by end of June or actually forecasting their Accounts to include it. Say the Forecast 3 Year Breach is I dunno £20m..adding another £20m to Forecast Trsnrer Profit or simply adding it to the likely £45-50m would fix the Projection but still leave an Embargo in play pending completion. No club has yet to my knowledge put in a straight up overspend in that manner to the EFL in March so there are a lot of unknowns. Who knows perhaps Leicester have pledged to the EFL that they will sell whatever it takes by end of June..Embargo in March can hold a club to that.

The EFL IMO overreached unless it was a clever ploy by them (unlikely) on their attempts to impose a Business Plan and the different interpretations of 'T'. The commercial sceptic in me says about Settlements with Leicester and Bournemouth under the old Regulations, that given they were out of reach and the PL were less than helpful in enforcement that there was a mutually acceptable wording and fine to draw a line given it dragged for so long. However, the Sanctions were very limited then too. Had Leicester not gone up the worst they would have got was an Embargo in January 2015. It was a Strict Liability Offence or something like. Fine on a sliding scale Promoted (which the PL didn't really help to collect as they thought the Regulations were flawed and diverged from their own) and Embargo if not.

One bit that confuses me slightly is the Maddison sale. 30th June I was convinced and I guess everyone else has been too. If post 30th June maybe it saves Leicester to this year but would absolutely seal a major breach to last. Income minimum was down £25-30m based in 8th to 18th and no European Revenue. May have been significantly higher as Leicester didn't appear in Deloitte Money League Top 30 for 2023. Could be due to a lack of data but fairly accurate to date. Everton on £170m came in 30th so by process of elimination Leicester may come in below that. All will be revealed soon I suppose. My own gut feeling was Leicester with Maddison sale in 2022-23 numbers pass to last season but crunch to this. There was a 13th month to be included last year as Leicester moved to end of June, that added costs net of income probably. Maybe there was some Impairment which again counts vs FFP but can ease it a bit moving forward and make offload of players easier. I did ballpark estimate of Leicester total club (ie Football, non Football plus NI and Tax on PAYE) as being £90m or so this season. Income probably around down £100m from 2021-22 to now, maybe more.

Thank you. I agree it will if there have been breaches proven catch up eventually, I don't see how a club if proven wriggle out in the long run if PSR breached.