Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Guest]

Still find it amusing when politicians are claiming that leave only won because they 'played the race card'.

 

 

So politicians are basically calling over 50% of the population racists.

 

If the differrence was about a million they're only saying that 500,000 have racial tendancies.

Where are you heading, Moose?

 

Hopefully not France or Madiera. I'd guess Australia.

[Guest]

Cornwall > Madeira.

 

Although it's getting harder to buy them these days, can't remember the town but they passed a motion a few weeks ago to try and stop rich bastards buying up holiday homes there.

 

edit: Was St Ives - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/yourview/1518711/Should-villages-ban-second-home-ownership.html

 

I had a father so no problem there.

 

I like Cornwall but the year round 20° - 25° really appeals to me. 

 

I'm tired of cold winters and hot summers.

[leicsmac]

It isn't very vocal at all. But the BBC's bias over the whole referendum saga has been a disgrace.

 

The argument that people voted leave because they're racist, is as plausible as those who voted remain because they're into polish birds.

 

Really? There's been a lot of shouting via various media from such folks before and after the referendum, you didn't hear any of it? If anything, it gave the Leave establishment a headache trying to make sure they weren't lumped in with them, both in the campaign itself and discussion about it (like on here).

 

Some people undoubtedly voted Leave because they believe that "all the foreigners would be kicked out", that's pretty much a certainty. But the number isn't as big as some people are making out, nor as small as others are saying.

[Babylon]

Really? There's been a lot of shouting via various media from such folks before and after the referendum, you didn't hear any of it? If anything, it gave the Leave establishment a headache trying to make sure they weren't lumped in with them, both in the campaign itself and discussion about it (like on here).

 

Some people undoubtedly voted Leave because they believe that "all the foreigners would be kicked out", that's pretty much a certainty. But the number isn't as big as some people are making out, nor as small as others are saying.

The staggeringly thick people who thought that, the sort of people who we've seen in the last few weeks abusing foreigners on buses and trams etc. I'd happily wager that many of them are in the 28% that didn't bother turning up to vote.

[Dodgy Bob]

Where are you heading, Moose?

Clearly I've no idea why you keep calling me Moose, but in answer to your question it will most likely be somewhere in the middle east. Won't be until early next year though.

[Alf Bentley]

Clearly I've no idea why you keep calling me Moose, but in answer to your question it will most likely be somewhere in the middle east. Won't be until early next year though.

 

 

Peace envoy, replacing Tony Blair? 

[Guest MattP]

Clearly I've no idea why you keep calling me Moose, but in answer to your question it will most likely be somewhere in the middle east. Won't be until early next year though.

 

Nice standard of living no doubt but the Middle East is very boring for a keen, active young male such as yourself.

 

P.S Does "Dodgy Bob" refer to the rather enjoyable character at the start of Jimmy White's autobiography?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Clearly I've no idea why you keep calling me Moose, but in answer to your question it will most likely be somewhere in the middle east. Won't be until early next year though.

Terroist!

[Buce]

Clearly I've no idea why you keep calling me Moose, but in answer to your question it will most likely be somewhere in the middle east. Won't be until early next year though.

It's easier than typing Dodgy Moose..

[Dodgy Bob]

Nice standard of living no doubt but the Middle East is very boring for a keen, active young male such as yourself.

P.S Does "Dodgy Bob" refer to the rather enjoyable character at the start of Jimmy White's autobiography?

Yeah I've heard it can be a bit boring but i think it should be alright. Get a nice villa or apartment in a complex with lots of leisure facilities. Lots of money, lots of holidays, year round sunshine. Life could be worse.

No I haven't read that one

[Jon the Hat]

Yeah I've heard it can be a bit boring but i think it should be alright. Get a nice villa or apartment in a complex with lots of leisure facilities. Lots of money, lots of holidays, year round sunshine. Life could be worse.

No I haven't read that one

 

Yes!  You could be one of the millions of exploited construction and domestic immigrant workers living in hell to provide that nice comfortable life for the few.

[Rincewind]

Yes!  You could be one of the millions of exploited construction and domestic immigrant workers living in hell to provide that nice comfortable life for the few.

Maybe Dodgy Bob is going to be one of the chain gang bosses.

[Steven]

Britain now has a smaller economy than France. €2.177 tn v. €2.182 tn. Thanks Brexit voters.

[James.]

Well this is all going well isn't it. Good work UK.

[Dodgy Bob]

Yes! You could be one of the millions of exploited construction and domestic immigrant workers living in hell to provide that nice comfortable life for the few.

As bad as I'm sure it is, being sanctimonious about it doesn't achieve anything, and nobody in the UK needs to be looking abroad to see examples of exploitation.

[LanguedocFox]

Still find it amusing when politicians are claiming that leave only won because they 'played the race card'.

 

 

So politicians are basically calling over 50% of the population racists.

 

About 30%, as it happens. 17 mill out of 60 mill (roughly).

 

But yes, it's unfair to tar all Leave voters with that brush. The ones that voted leave just because they want to see Jonny Foreigner shown the door are a minority, but a rather vocal one.

 

 

Being a pedantic old fart, it was about 38% if the qualified electorate: 17mill out of 45 mill.

[LanguedocFox]

It is honest to say you wont promise EU nationals living in the UK can stay, however also rather naïve.  The reality is that everything is on the table in negotiations, but in practical terms it would be impossible to kick anyone out.  Imagine the chaos!  Jesus.  Anyway, the point here is we also need to think of the Brits abroad, who lets face it, we really don't want back - they are painful enough slagging of Britain when they come back and visit!  So we have to be able to discuss this.

 

The other question is how you stop 2Million people turning up in the months before we close the borders.  Hmm?

 

 

One major issue stems from the fact that the vast majority (upwards of 90%) of the two million or so Brits who live in the EU are older people - ie, over the age of 60 - while about 10% of the employees of the NHS are EU immigrants.

 

Now, not all ex-pat Brits will want to come back to the UK, but the majority will - as I know from personal experience. And maybe not all of the EU immigrants working for the NHS will want to go back to their home countries. But it's likely that a majority will do so.

 

Given that older people tend to suffer from more illnesses than younger people, this will impose an additional burden on an already understaffed and under-funded NHS. How fortunate that we will have the additional £350 million a week to help deal with this issue.

[reynard]

I'm sure it would be reassuring for EU nationals if all candidates announced a policy to allow those already here to stay. It wouldn't have any legal force until legislation was passed, though, so wouldn't be a full guarantee.

We all know that individual politicians or political parties promise all sorts of things during election campaigns.....and they don't necessarily happen once those individuals or parties are in power.

 

Doesn't "freedom of movement" continue until we actually leave the EU, though, or have I misunderstood that? If so, then if the Brexit negotiations last until, say, late 2018, and we don't leave until 2019, then surely they'd be OK at least until then?

 

The same applies to newcomers, doesn't it? So, if EU nationals want to come here now or next year, they'll be freely able to do so, won't they (unless Brexit negotiations are super-rapid)? In theory, there could be a high level of EU immigration for 2-3 years yet. However, the uncertainty about the economy and future status might discourage that, likewise reports of hostility to immigrants. If things settle down a bit, that might not bother those who intend to just come over, work for a bit and then return home.

 

What will be the attitude of those who voted Brexit to control immigration, though? Doubtless some would be happy with the idea of those already here staying, provided national control is asserted at some point. Others might not be, particularly if the economic situation deteriorates and jobs are lost or pay stagnates. They might feel that there are already too many foreigners here, never mind allowing free access to more of them over the next 2 years or so....  

 

I believe you are correct. Once we activate clause 50 then that is the same as handing in your notice at work. Our notice period is a maximum of two years. If all is agreed we could leave prior to that. However, if after two years we have not reached any final agreement we could  just be kicked out by the remaining member states. During the period of negotiation all existing Eu laws and freedom of movement remain in place as does free trade and things like EU health cards though I guess there may be individual cases where UK citizens are denied Eu privileges though this would technically be illegal though I wouldn't blame them if they did..

 

I'm happy for some legal mind to correct me but that is how I see it.

 

Problems will occur if the EU insist upon freedom of movement as part of the trade deal which may happen and frankly should happen after all it is one of the fundamental parts of EU membership. So far we have a load of bluster from our politicians on this issue drawing a line in the sand they may not be able to maintain.

[Webbo]

You know, we won't just be negotiating to sell our stuff to them, they're going to want  to sell their stuff to us. We're a big economy and we buy a lot of stuff. There's nothing we buy from Europe that we can't buy elsewhere. We have a bit of leverage here.

[Guest]

One major issue stems from the fact that the vast majority (upwards of 90%) of the two million or so Brits who live in the EU are older people - ie, over the age of 60 - while about 10% of the employees of the NHS are EU immigrants.

 

Now, not all ex-pat Brits will want to come back to the UK, but the majority will - as I know from personal experience. And maybe not all of the EU immigrants working for the NHS will want to go back to their home countries. But it's likely that a majority will do so.

 

Given that older people tend to suffer from more illnesses than younger people, this will impose an additional burden on an already understaffed and under-funded NHS. How fortunate that we will have the additional £350 million a week to help deal with this issue.

The expats issue is an interesting one. From an economic standpoint, many of these expats are collecting a uk pension, but then spending it abroad in Spain etc. Essentially money going out of the UK economy. Also there's a good chance that they come back to the UK for NHS care. Or they use their EHIC for treatment over there, which is then reimbursed by the NHS (if I understand that arrangement correctly).

 

So it would be interesting to see what the actual financial balance of returning expats would be.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

We're one of the few net contributors to the EU. Once we're out, a lot of countries will see a lot of money disappear. It's in the EU's interest to keep

us sweet.

Through all the bullshit, they'll want us to end up vetoing Article 50 and staying in or giving us favourable trade deals to keep our business within the EU so the financial loss to the organisation isn't as great.

[Alf Bentley]

You know, we won't just be negotiating to sell our stuff to them, they're going to want  to sell their stuff to us. We're a big economy and we buy a lot of stuff. There's nothing we buy from Europe that we can't buy elsewhere. We have a bit of leverage here.

 

 

We're a big economy compared to most individual EU countries, but not compared to the EU as a whole - with which we'll be negotiating. Yes, we buy 16% of EU exports, but the EU buys 45% of UK exports (about 14% v. 53% for imports). They'll have a lot more leverage - not to mention political motivation, not wanting to encourage others to leave the EU.

 

Yes, we can buy most goods/services elsewhere. But the fact that we buy 53% of our imports from the EU and not elsewhere suggests that EU goods/services are often seen as the best deal on the market, whether in terms of quality, price or convenience. Nobody's stopping us buying elsewhere now - and we currently benefit from dozens of trade deals that the EU has with countries around the world. Once we leave the EU, we will no longer benefit from those deals and will rely on inferior, generic WTO trading terms until we negotiate new terms (some believe this could take many years).

 

We'll see....but it doesn't seem like the Brexiteers have thought this all through properly. 

[Strokes]

We're a big economy compared to most individual EU countries, but not compared to the EU as a whole - with which we'll be negotiating. Yes, we buy 16% of EU exports, but the EU buys 45% of UK exports (about 14% v. 53% for imports). They'll have a lot more leverage - not to mention political motivation, not wanting to encourage others to leave the EU.

Yes, we can buy most goods/services elsewhere. But the fact that we buy 53% of our imports from the EU and not elsewhere suggests that EU goods/services are often seen as the best deal on the market, whether in terms of quality, price or convenience. Nobody's stopping us buying elsewhere now - and we currently benefit from dozens of trade deals that the EU has with countries around the world. Once we leave the EU, we will no longer benefit from those deals and will rely on inferior, generic WTO trading terms until we negotiate new terms (some believe this could take many years).

We'll see....but it doesn't seem like the Brexiteers have thought this all through properly.

It would be nice to see that in a country by country breakdown Alf, I can't find it at the minute. Obviously some countries have more sway/power within the EU, what percentage of Germany's exports do we buy for example?

I found this from a little while back, it doesn't give percentages but shows that we might have a stronger hand than you give credit for, we buy strong from the German powerhouses and I'm not sure they can afford to put many barriers up.

http://www.cityam.com/1415361850/uk-deficit-widens-brits-cant-get-enough-those-german-goods

[Webbo]

We're a big economy compared to most individual EU countries, but not compared to the EU as a whole - with which we'll be negotiating. Yes, we buy 16% of EU exports, but the EU buys 45% of UK exports (about 14% v. 53% for imports). They'll have a lot more leverage - not to mention political motivation, not wanting to encourage others to leave the EU.

 

Yes, we can buy most goods/services elsewhere. But the fact that we buy 53% of our imports from the EU and not elsewhere suggests that EU goods/services are often seen as the best deal on the market, whether in terms of quality, price or convenience. Nobody's stopping us buying elsewhere now - and we currently benefit from dozens of trade deals that the EU has with countries around the world. Once we leave the EU, we will no longer benefit from those deals and will rely on inferior, generic WTO trading terms until we negotiate new terms (some believe this could take many years).

 

We'll see....but it doesn't seem like the Brexiteers have thought this all through properly. 

We buy a lot of stuff from the EU because it's tariff free and tariffs are imposed on other countries. It could soon be the other way around.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

This isn't quite what you were after Stoke's, but it gives a flavour of our trade position in April (for goods). However, our biggest weakness in any negotiation may not be shown in that data, because I'm pretty sure we need to obtain concessions for services.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OTS%20Releases/OTS_Release_0416.pdf