Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Jon the Hat]

19 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

They backed remain due to the threat to British research posed by brexit - with the probability that British researchers would move out to the EU to preserve their collaboration networks and funding. The murmurs of a Norway type deal that seems to be the preferred option would help soften that blow since we could still be receiving  funding from the commission for research like Switzerland do; but GSK is more taking advantage of the falling pound for exports - not seeing sense, brexit was still a ridiculous decision, but making the best of a bad situation.

The threat to British research as far as I could see was based on the idea that we would for some reason (insanity?) deport all the intelligent scientists working her, or decide to destroy a hugely important industry by not making up any funding gaps which might arise.  Neither of which look likely to arise.

[Steven]

Retail sales take a tumble

Bad news: UK retail sales have fallen at the fastest pace in over four years in July this month.

The latest survey, from the CBI, bolsters concerns that the economy is weakening fast - unravelling the solid growth in the last quarter.

Some 24% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in July compared with a year earlier, while 38% said they were down, giving a rounded balance of -14%. That’s the weakest reading since January 2012.

The CBI says:

Within retail, sales by grocers, and furniture and carpets stores were the main drivers of the drop in overall volumes. But some sectors bucked the trend, with non-specialised department stores and retailers of footwear and leather goods reporting higher volumes.

Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics says it’s worrying news:

— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs)July 27, 2016

First retail survey solely covering the post-ref period and guess what? It's collapsed. CBI reported sales bal. at lowest level since Jan 12

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/27/uk-gdp-economy-growth-brexit-referendum-pound-markets-live

[Guest MattP]

Does Steven just sit there with the Guardian rolling on his PC 24/7?

 

I know it might be hard for you but other media outlets (far more neutral ones as well) are available.

[Steven]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Does Steven just sit there with the Guardian rolling on his PC 24/7?

 

I know it might be hard for you but other media outlets (far more neutral ones as well) are available.

It is the business section; facts and figures. Are your parents spin doctors? 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Steven said:

It is the business section; facts and figures. Are your parents spin doctors? 

No.

 

Every link you post in here is from Guardian, it's just a bit strange that's all.

[Guest MattP]

Another Brexit myth destroyed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a8460f2-5280-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef.html

 

 

Quote

 

Theresa May has promised that Brexit will not lead to a restoration of “the borders of the past” in Ireland, but her visit to Belfast on Monday left more questions than answers about the future of the north-south frontier.

The prime minister has yet to come up with an answer as to how the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland can be as porous as it is today, once it becomes an external EU frontier.

Mrs May will on Tuesday meet Enda Kenny, Irish prime minister, to discuss how free movement of people and goods might be maintained after Brexit, with Mr Kenny insisting there can be no return to a “hard border”.

“What we want to do is find a way through this that is going to work and deliver a practical solution for everybody,” Mrs May said.

 

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Thracian said:

 

Are you just as negative at home? 

 

     

 

Are you classing your posts as positive?

 

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

Does Steven just sit there with the Guardian rolling on his PC 24/7?

 

I know it might be hard for you but other media outlets (far more neutral ones as well) are available.

Or do you mean outlets that agree with your pov?

 

 

[leicsmac]

25 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The threat to British research as far as I could see was based on the idea that we would for some reason (insanity?) deport all the intelligent scientists working her, or decide to destroy a hugely important industry by not making up any funding gaps which might arise.  Neither of which look likely to arise.

Given the UK's contempt towards the STEM fields in the past, I think the fear for EU research funding not being made up by the UK is a very legitimate one.

 

And I know this is purely anecdotal, but a lot of the EU nationals I did my Masters with in 2013 and are working in the UK now feel afraid for their jobs, unwelcome, or both.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, FIF said:

 

Or do you mean outlets that agree with your pov?

Not at all.

 

I think there is a general consensus about position of media outlets ie left Guardian, Mirror - centre Times, I, right Sun Mail etc

Coming in here and just posting a Guardian article every time should be treated with the same distain as someone just consistently posting from the Express.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Not at all.

 

I think there is a general consensus about position of media outlets ie left Guardian, Mirror - centre Times, I, right Sun Mail etc

Coming in here and just posting a Guardian article every time should be treated with the same distain as someone just consistently posting from the Express.

I thought it would be seen as balance to the right wing twaddle.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, FIF said:

I thought it would be seen as balance to the right wing twaddle.

 

I am so bored of you.

[Guest]

Just now, MattP said:

 

I am so bored of you.

no problem.

 

I only reply to you when I see something rather biased or if you ask for views.

[The Doctor]

38 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The threat to British research as far as I could see was based on the idea that we would for some reason (insanity?) deport all the intelligent scientists working her, or decide to destroy a hugely important industry by not making up any funding gaps which might arise.  Neither of which look likely to arise.

The fear wasn't about deporting - it was about the loss of free movement and barriers being out up to our participation in pan-European collaborations, particularly those funded by horizon 2020 - and we did and do see British researchers being encouraged by their peers to step away from heading horizon projects due to fears of not getting funding.

 

As for Britain cutting or not replacing the funding - successive governments have had an awful record in that regard - that fear was very much a logical and realistic one to hold 

[Webbo]

At the mini europe model park in Brussels, they've built an anti brexit demo outside the model houses of parliament

 

[Alf Bentley]

22 minutes ago, MattP said:

Another Brexit myth destroyed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a8460f2-5280-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef.html

 

 

 

 

I couldn't access the FT article due to a pay-wall, but if all it contains is May's statement that there'll be "no restoration of the borders of the past", then that destroys no myths whatsoever.

 

It's just a bit of aspirational rhetoric - welcome rhetoric, but still just rhetoric, like her rhetoric about economic inequality, tax avoidance etc. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

 

Your own quote points out that her visit "left more questions than answers" about the border once it becomes an external EU frontier.

Questions such as:

- How will the UK "control its borders" without a hard border in Ireland, if we no longer allow free movement of EU citizens, but Eire does? What's to stop Poles or Romanians travelling to the Irish Republic and then entering the UK via a porous border?

- How with the UK & Ireland handle cross-border checks on goods and tariffs (if applicable) if the UK leaves the EU single market and the Republic of Ireland stays in?

 

These questions aren't "myths". They might be resolved via the Brexit negotiations. I seriously hope they are for all our sakes, as a return to tension and violence over Northern Ireland is the very last thing we need.

 

Maybe we'll stay in the single market or do some deal that precludes tariffs or border checks on goods. Maybe we'll do a compromise on free movement (e.g. the 7-year "brake", though that would only postpone the problem).

No myths will be destroyed until we know the terms and conditions for Brexit, anyway.

[Alf Bentley]

20 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=FTSE+250&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=&oe=&gfe_rd=cr&ei=4I6XV4y0G_PS8AfU9IHICg

 

FTSE 250 slightly above June 22nd close.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=FTSE+250&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=&oe=&gfe_rd=cr&ei=4I6XV4y0G_PS8AfU9IHICg#q=FTSE+100

 

FTSE 100 386 points higher than June 22nd Close.

 

DISASTER!

 

 

The FTSE falling or rising can mean something or absolutely nothing re. the prospects of the real economy.

 

If there's going to be a short/medium-term economic impact from Brexit, we'll start seeing it over the next 6 months, I'd guess - through figures on GDP growth, investment, unemployment etc.

 

I'd assume there will then be more effects (good or bad) a bit further down the line, once the likely and actual terms of Brexit become clearer.

 

Of course, it's quite possible that political/economic uncertainty could drag the real economy into slow growth or recession in 2016-17 and it could then recover if the terms of Brexit look good....or it could recover and do better over many years if we do good trade deals (a very big IF). Likewise, the outlook for the E27 is very uncertain with slow growth, unemployment, rising nationalism, terrorism, the need for EU reform etc. Could turn out well or very, very badly.

 

At the moment, I reckon I'd settle for a bit of a downturn over the next year, then a UK semi-recovery with slower-than-expected growth - and the EU doing likewise and reforming its stupid austerity-driven Eurozone/EMU set-up. It could end up better than that - but it could end up a hell of a lot worse (economic instability, recession and a Europe of nationalist states didn't end well in the 1930s...).

[Alf Bentley]

20 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=FTSE+250&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=&oe=&gfe_rd=cr&ei=4I6XV4y0G_PS8AfU9IHICg

 

FTSE 250 slightly above June 22nd close.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=FTSE+250&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=&oe=&gfe_rd=cr&ei=4I6XV4y0G_PS8AfU9IHICg#q=FTSE+100

 

FTSE 100 386 points higher than June 22nd Close.

 

DISASTER!

 

 

The FTSE falling or rising can mean something or absolutely nothing re. the prospects of the real economy.

 

If there's going to be a short/medium-term economic impact from Brexit, we'll start seeing it over the next 6 months, I'd guess - through figures on GDP growth, investment, unemployment etc.

 

I'd assume there will then be more effects (good or bad) a bit further down the line, once the likely and actual terms of Brexit become clearer.

 

Of course, it's quite possible that political/economic uncertainty could drag the real economy into slow growth or recession in 2016-17 and it could then recover if the terms of Brexit look good....or it could recover and do better over many years if we do good trade deals (a very big IF). Likewise, the outlook for the E27 is very uncertain with slow growth, unemployment, rising nationalism, terrorism, the need for EU reform etc. Could turn out well or very, very badly.

 

At the moment, I reckon I'd settle for a bit of a downturn over the next year, then a UK semi-recovery with slower-than-expected growth - and the EU doing likewise and reforming its stupid austerity-driven Eurozone/EMU set-up. It could end up better than that - but it could end up a hell of a lot worse (economic instability, recession and a Europe of nationalist states didn't end well in the 1930s...).

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I couldn't access the FT article due to a pay-wall, but if all it contains is May's statement that there'll be "no restoration of the borders of the past", then that destroys no myths whatsoever.

 

It's just a bit of aspirational rhetoric - welcome rhetoric, but still just rhetoric, like her rhetoric about economic inequality, tax avoidance etc. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

 

Your own quote points out that her visit "left more questions than answers" about the border once it becomes an external EU frontier.

Questions such as:

- How will the UK "control its borders" without a hard border in Ireland, if we no longer allow free movement of EU citizens, but Eire does? What's to stop Poles or Romanians travelling to the Irish Republic and then entering the UK via a porous border?

- How with the UK & Ireland handle cross-border checks on goods and tariffs (if applicable) if the UK leaves the EU single market and the Republic of Ireland stays in?

 

These questions aren't "myths". They might be resolved via the Brexit negotiations. I seriously hope they are for all our sakes, as a return to tension and violence over Northern Ireland is the very last thing we need.

 

Maybe we'll stay in the single market or do some deal that precludes tariffs or border checks on goods. Maybe we'll do a compromise on free movement (e.g. the 7-year "brake", though that would only postpone the problem).

No myths will be destroyed until we know the terms and conditions for Brexit, anyway.

I don't understand why the issues with people coming here via Ireland. It's them working/claiming benefits here that is of concern. We can control that with a porous border if we wish.

[leicsmac]

41 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

The fear wasn't about deporting - it was about the loss of free movement and barriers being out up to our participation in pan-European collaborations, particularly those funded by horizon 2020 - and we did and do see British researchers being encouraged by their peers to step away from heading horizon projects due to fears of not getting funding.

 

As for Britain cutting or not replacing the funding - successive governments have had an awful record in that regard - that fear was very much a logical and realistic one to hold 

This.

 

I've still seen no reassurances or convincing arguments that Brexit will be a positive factor for UK STEM, or even maintain a status quo.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

I don't understand why the issues with people coming here via Ireland. It's them working/claiming benefits here that is of concern. We can control that with a porous border if we wish.

 

Certainly, there would be a lot fewer EU citizens coming here if they didn't enjoy the right to work - and very few claim benefits, anyway. However, there could be a serious issue with EU migrants from poorer countries arriving and working illegally in the black market. That could be a major drag on unskilled pay and damaging to businesses employing people legitimately, paying their N.I. contributions, minimum pay, safe working conditions etc.

 

It's also by no means clear that the EU would allow us to operate trade conditions similar to the single market if we stopped free movement of labour. If we were effectively outside the single market, there's the risk that we'd have to institute checks on goods.

There might be ways of avoiding all this (e.g. conducting goods/tariff documentation checks inland, allowing free movement with no right to work/benefits but employing a lot more employment inspectors). It might all be resolved - and there does seem to be the will to do so on all sides - but it's by no means simple and certainly hasn't been resolved yet.

[Carl the Llama]

16 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I don't understand why the issues with people coming here via Ireland. It's them working/claiming benefits here that is of concern. We can control that with a porous border if we wish.

...the British public?

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Certainly, there would be a lot fewer EU citizens coming here if they didn't enjoy the right to work - and very few claim benefits, anyway. However, there could be a serious issue with EU migrants from poorer countries arriving and working illegally in the black market. That could be a major drag on unskilled pay and damaging to businesses employing people legitimately, paying their N.I. contributions, minimum pay, safe working conditions etc.

 

It's also by no means clear that the EU would allow us to operate trade conditions similar to the single market if we stopped free movement of labour. If we were effectively outside the single market, there's the risk that we'd have to institute checks on goods.

There might be ways of avoiding all this (e.g. conducting goods/tariff documentation checks inland, allowing free movement with no right to work/benefits but employing a lot more employment inspectors). It might all be resolved - and there does seem to be the will to do so on all sides - but it's by no means simple and certainly hasn't been resolved yet.

We've had this discussion on black market labour before and I understand it's concern but it is upto the government to police it properly for all of our sakes. I'm not sure it will be anywhere near as bad as it currently is (how bad is it?) as we are only currently talking about one border as opposed to several. You would have to be pretty desperate to come and work illegally to make the journey over to Ireland and then still somehow make it over to the mainland, it's not far fetched but perhaps a little bit to difficult for not much reward. 

In the name of peace on a volatile situation I'm sure we can come up with a deal that, whilst not perfect, maintains the freedoms of the Irish/northern Irish.

 

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

...the British public?

[Steven]

Because I am balanced.

 

FTSE 250 regains all post-Brexit vote losses

The FTSE 100 is not the only index to be boosted by the news of better than expected UK GDP figures and, perhaps more pertinently, an interest rate cut from the Bank of England next week to try and stall a post-Brexit downturn.

The leading index is now at its highest level for more than a year - the best since 20 July 2015.

Meanwhile the FTSE 250, which is more focused on the UK domestic economy than the 100 index, has regained all the losses it suffered since the Brexit result.

The mid-cap index is up 1.6% at 17,354, compared to the 17,333 level it reached on the day of the referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/27/uk-gdp-economy-growth-brexit-referendum-pound-markets-live

[Jon the Hat]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Given the UK's contempt towards the STEM fields in the past, I think the fear for EU research funding not being made up by the UK is a very legitimate one.

 

And I know this is purely anecdotal, but a lot of the EU nationals I did my Masters with in 2013 and are working in the UK now feel afraid for their jobs, unwelcome, or both.

 

 

 

I'm sure they do, there has been a lot of scaremongering, and of course lots of publicity for racists twats leaving stupid notes and saying stupid things.