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DJ Barry Hammond

Brexit Discussion Thread.

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Guest MattP
31 minutes ago, reynard said:

The referendum is over and we need to get on with it now. However, there needs to be parliamentary scrutiny as those who voted to leave do not really know exactly what they voted for. I don't mean to be patronising here but what for eg did you personally vote for? Yes you voted to leave the Eu but what does that mean to you? What it means to you it won't mean to others.

For eg did you vote to leave the Eu at all cost. ie no deal on free trade available or did you vote for a position of free trade in return for free movement but without any political ties or did you vote for free trade with partial free movement of people and no political ties? Do you want to continue to enjoy the benefits of European health care free of charge or even things like free entry to museums for EU citizens. Do you want our students to enjoy reciprocal university education and research and so on and so on? All of these need to be negotiated and hundreds more issues as well. I bet you that many who voted to leave did so for many different reasons and that illustrates the sheer complexity of where we are now. Those who voted to remain had a fairly simple choice those who voted to leave didn't. Listening to radio phone ins the reasons for leaving were mainly given as immigration but there were some truly bizarre reasons from believing the Eu undermined Christian fundamental values in this country to the fact that all the drunks in Bradford were immigrants and wasters and even some believing it would "save" our national health service. The practicalities and detail and legal intricacies now required are far beyond the ordinary sod like me and that is why parliament must debate it all in detail and why the House of Lords is duty bound to study everything and to ask the House of Commons to look again if needs be.

As the terms of our trading deals, I'm afraid they are largely at the whim of other nations now.

I'd imagine people voted to leave the European Union for a variety of reasons, in the same way I imagine people voted to stay in the European Union for a variety of reasons.

 

However it is binary, there is a list of nations in it and out of it, we will now be one of the ones out of it, now it's the government's job to get the best deal for us and like any other they will judged on what they have done at the next election.

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2 hours ago, Strokes said:

It would take a brave MP to vote against their constituents. I'd actually like to see how this turns out, the backlash would be monumental. 

This.

 

As for the people still talking about a second referendum, hilarious. I can't believe it is still being talked about.

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15 hours ago, MattP said:

 

Even if there is clear evidence of a huge swing towards remain (which there isn't) then no I wouldn't have a second referendum, we have these things to decide things like this and the decision has now been made by the people fairly conclusively and with the biggest mandate of the British people in history.

 

If you start changing results of referendums you'll end up just having one after the other, let's say we have another one and we have a narrow vote to stay, what happens then in 3 months time if there is a shift to leave after we realise there is no change of reform and nothing is going to change, do we then have a third referendum again? Do you really think for a start the EU would even be happy to watch that happen? Of course they wouldn't.

 

You lost the referendum, I cannot believe you are still whinging on about this in August.

I didn't lose, why is everything so personal with you Matt? I am not whinging about it I am re-iterating what is being reported about the House of Lords. They believe they can block and delay the legislation (which we may not need) with the intention of forcing a second referendum. Seeing as we will not start  the process to leave until 2017 we have enough time to have a second referendum. Coincidence? There are some very powerful people who do not want us to leave, and the only way we could feasibly not leave, without causing a riot would be a second referendum.

 

I also don't understand this obsession with the referendum result must be acted upon regardless, even if it became irrefutably clear that it is no longer the will of the people, or that leaving the EU would harm the country. If you realise you are making a mistake you don't carry on regardless. There is process for forcing a re-election when it is clear that it has been a mistake, look at the Labour party they voted in Corbyn as leader it is a disaster they are trying to change it.

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14 hours ago, reynard said:

The referendum is over and we need to get on with it now. However, there needs to be parliamentary scrutiny as those who voted to leave do not really know exactly what they voted for. I don't mean to be patronising here but what for eg did you personally vote for? Yes you voted to leave the Eu but what does that mean to you? What it means to you it won't mean to others.

For eg did you vote to leave the Eu at all cost. ie no deal on free trade available or did you vote for a position of free trade in return for free movement but without any political ties or did you vote for free trade with partial free movement of people and no political ties? Do you want to continue to enjoy the benefits of European health care free of charge or even things like free entry to museums for EU citizens. Do you want our students to enjoy reciprocal university education and research and so on and so on? All of these need to be negotiated and hundreds more issues as well. I bet you that many who voted to leave did so for many different reasons and that illustrates the sheer complexity of where we are now. Those who voted to remain had a fairly simple choice those who voted to leave didn't. Listening to radio phone ins the reasons for leaving were mainly given as immigration but there were some truly bizarre reasons from believing the Eu undermined Christian fundamental values in this country to the fact that all the drunks in Bradford were immigrants and wasters and even some believing it would "save" our national health service. The practicalities and detail and legal intricacies now required are far beyond the ordinary sod like me and that is why parliament must debate it all in detail and why the House of Lords is duty bound to study everything and to ask the House of Commons to look again if needs be.

As the terms of our trading deals, I'm afraid they are largely at the whim of other nations now.

This is why I was disappointed to hear this:

Quote

'The clear message from the EU referendum was that people want us to get back control of our borders. Theresa is absolutely determined to do that.' 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3687520/I-solve-migrant-crisis-New-PM-Theresa-vows-bring-control-British-borders-end-free-movement-EU-citizens.html#ixzz4GA9ICesd
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 

The clear message was to leave the EU, even if only 5% of the leave voters wanted to leave solely for other reasons, sovereignty, trade etc and are happy with the freedom of movement then that is not a clear message that the people want us to get back control  of our borders. We don't know why people voted to leave, we didn't ask them why.

 

Not allowing freedom of movement would prevent any EFTA deal and significantly hamper any sort of collaboration with the EU on science and research.

 

Voting to leave the EU has not given the Government a mandate to close the borders, and saying it has is disingenuous and wrong. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I didn't lose, why is everything so personal with you Matt? I am not whinging about it I am re-iterating what is being reported about the House of Lords. They believe they can block and delay the legislation (which we may not need) with the intention of forcing a second referendum. Seeing as we will not start  the process to leave until 2017 we have enough time to have a second referendum. Coincidence? There are some very powerful people who do not want us to leave, and the only way we could feasibly not leave, without causing a riot would be a second referendum.

 

I also don't understand this obsession with the referendum result must be acted upon regardless, even if it became irrefutably clear that it is no longer the will of the people, or that leaving the EU would harm the country. If you realise you are making a mistake you don't carry on regardless. There is process for forcing a re-election when it is clear that it has been a mistake, look at the Labour party they voted in Corbyn as leader it is a disaster they are trying to change it.

Apparently Matt never pulls out.

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Guest MattP
2 hours ago, Captain... said:

I didn't lose, why is everything so personal with you Matt? I am not whinging about it I am re-iterating what is being reported about the House of Lords. They believe they can block and delay the legislation (which we may not need) with the intention of forcing a second referendum. Seeing as we will not start  the process to leave until 2017 we have enough time to have a second referendum. Coincidence? There are some very powerful people who do not want us to leave, and the only way we could feasibly not leave, without causing a riot would be a second referendum.

 

I also don't understand this obsession with the referendum result must be acted upon regardless, even if it became irrefutably clear that it is no longer the will of the people, or that leaving the EU would harm the country. If you realise you are making a mistake you don't carry on regardless. There is process for forcing a re-election when it is clear that it has been a mistake, look at the Labour party they voted in Corbyn as leader it is a disaster they are trying to change it.

If you really don't understand why a referendum result should be acted on then I don't really think we need to go much further, some people believe in democracy and some don't, comparing this to the Labour party election is futile, two completely different things.

 

Let's be quite frank, if they have a second referendum the intention will be to block us leaving the European Union full stop, even in the event of another leave vote the intention will be still to block us and I'm sure they do it even if we "make a mistake again" - as I've said before they can do it if they want as the referendum isn't binding, but get ready for a UKIP government if you do who will just then invoke article 50 immediately, my advice is to get on with leaving and do it getting the best deal for Britain rather than waiting for chaos in 2020.

 

Last post I'll make on this unless the Lords does decide to commit suicide by trying to block it, Theresa May has said "Brexit means Brexit" and I'm certain she'll make sure of it, if she doesn't the Conservative party dies with her.

 

Despite saying I still think leave would win a second referendum thinking about it I certainly wouldn't vote in a second referendum and I would encourage every leave voter, MP and supporter not to either, don't take part in any campaigning, send no leaflets out and instead just encourage everyone not to vote, as I say if they have a second referendum the result doesn't matter anyway as they would be keeping us in whatever so let's let remain win with 80% on a 40% turnout and show the World what a farce it is, then instead take direct action against the companies, MP's and all others who trood on British democracy, unfortunately if you take away the rights of the people all you are left with is bullets and bombs. :(

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Guest MattP

In fact if there was a second referendum I'm almost certain the vote would be fiddled anyway, no way would they go to that extent and not be absolutely 100% of getting the result they want.

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Guest MattP
4 minutes ago, Watson said:

I think the idea of a UKIP govt is a little far fetched Matt 

I don't think it is, you only have to look what happened North of the border and that was with 45% who felt betrayed, UKIP would have 52% to work with. The SNP didn't just win either, they swept the board as we have a FPTP system. They had swings upto 40% in some areas.

17.5 million voted leave, UKIP has around 3.9million voters now so they would probably need about 50% of the rest, with the state of Labour and the collapse of the Conservative party that's more than possible.

 

If we were denied leaving the European Union I'd make UKIP no more than 4/1 to win a majority at the next election and they would surely be the largest party.

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7 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't think it is, you only have to look what happened North of the border and that was with 45% who felt betrayed, UKIP would have 52% to work with. The SNP didn't just win either, they swept the board as we have a FPTP system.

17.5 million voted leave, UKIP has around 3.9million voters now so they would probably need about 50% of the rest, with the state of Labour and the collapse of the Conservative party that's more than possible.

 

If we were denied leaving the European Union I'd make UKIP no more than 4/1 to win a majority at the next election and they would surely be the largest party.

It would certainly be interesting but I just can't see it. I'm not sure comparing it to Scotland is entirely fair. The mood there after the election swung more towards independence, whereas it seems to have swung more towards remain here. 

 

FPTP is surely more likely to act as a detriment to UKIP too. The dispersed support of UKIP wouldn't help them. Scotland voted 38% to leave the EU. Would you bet much money that the SNP would lose many, if any, seats? UKIP got 1 MP with 12.6% of the vote at the last election. They'd certainly improve both but then you have to consider campaigning experience, one or two mad candidates they'll inevitably pick up, plenty of their more suspect manifesto pledges having to be considered more seriously by voters, not having Farage as leader etc.

 

I think it's also unfair to dismiss that 17m or so who voted remain too. It seems as though they have just as strong feelings as the outers and would perhaps be more likely to vote in a general election than leavers (working class historically have a lower turnout). I keep hearing how the leave vote has the biggest mandate ever in UK politics. Well that's the largest dissenting vote we've ever seen too.

 

Of course it's impossible to really guess what might happen given the events of the last 6 months with the Tories and Labour, but I really just can't see it. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

If you really don't understand why a referendum result should be acted on then I don't really think we need to go much further, some people believe in democracy and some don't, comparing this to the Labour party election is futile, two completely different things.

 

Let's be quite frank, if they have a second referendum the intention will be to block us leaving the European Union full stop, even in the event of another leave vote the intention will be still to block us and I'm sure they do it even if we "make a mistake again" - as I've said before they can do it if they want as the referendum isn't binding, but get ready for a UKIP government if you do who will just then invoke article 50 immediately, my advice is to get on with leaving and do it getting the best deal for Britain rather than waiting for chaos in 2020.

 

Last post I'll make on this unless the Lords does decide to commit suicide by trying to block it, Theresa May has said "Brexit means Brexit" and I'm certain she'll make sure of it, if she doesn't the Conservative party dies with her.

 

Despite saying I still think leave would win a second referendum thinking about it I certainly wouldn't vote in a second referendum and I would encourage every leave voter, MP and supporter not to either, don't take part in any campaigning, send no leaflets out and instead just encourage everyone not to vote, as I say if they have a second referendum the result doesn't matter anyway as they would be keeping us in whatever so let's let remain win with 80% on a 40% turnout and show the World what a farce it is, then instead take direct action against the companies, MP's and all others who trood on British democracy, unfortunately if you take away the rights of the people all you are left with is bullets and bombs. :(

I'm not saying it shouldn't be acted upon, the government currently has a mandate to leave the EU and I agree they should just bloody get on with it, if it is what we are going to do. The only way to reverse it would be another referendum, and boycotting it would just be pointless, it is not undemocratic to ask the people again. Since the leave vote it has become clearer what the UK will be like outside the EU, but it is still a muddle.

 

I would genuinely like to see the UK offered a real choice, a real alternative to the EU, not the EU as it is or a post brexit utopian fantasy. Whatever the preferred exit strategy I would like to see that put to the people, and I would like to see it with an option of remaining in the EU.

 

EU or EFTA or complete independence from the EU (including what that means for ECHR, ECJ, CFP, CAP in each case) an AV referendum, negotiate the loose terms of joining EFTA, outline the impact of complete independence and let people make an informed decision on the future of the UK.

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10 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I'm not saying it shouldn't be acted upon, the government currently has a mandate to leave the EU and I agree they should just bloody get on with it, if it is what we are going to do. The only way to reverse it would be another referendum, and boycotting it would just be pointless, it is not undemocratic to ask the people again. Since the leave vote it has become clearer what the UK will be like outside the EU, but it is still a muddle.

 

I would genuinely like to see the UK offered a real choice, a real alternative to the EU, not the EU as it is or a post brexit utopian fantasy. Whatever the preferred exit strategy I would like to see that put to the people, and I would like to see it with an option of remaining in the EU.

 

EU or EFTA or complete independence from the EU (including what that means for ECHR, ECJ, CFP, CAP in each case) an AV referendum, negotiate the loose terms of joining EFTA, outline the impact of complete independence and let people make an informed decision on the future of the UK.

It is undemocratic to ask again, if you don't act upon the first referendum. We should only ask again if the question is different, i.e. what relationship should the UK have with the EU. 

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1 hour ago, Captain... said:

I'm not saying it shouldn't be acted upon, the government currently has a mandate to leave the EU and I agree they should just bloody get on with it, if it is what we are going to do. The only way to reverse it would be another referendum, and boycotting it would just be pointless, it is not undemocratic to ask the people again. Since the leave vote it has become clearer what the UK will be like outside the EU, but it is still a muddle.

 

I would genuinely like to see the UK offered a real choice, a real alternative to the EU, not the EU as it is or a post brexit utopian fantasy. Whatever the preferred exit strategy I would like to see that put to the people, and I would like to see it with an option of remaining in the EU.

 

EU or EFTA or complete independence from the EU (including what that means for ECHR, ECJ, CFP, CAP in each case) an AV referendum, negotiate the loose terms of joining EFTA, outline the impact of complete independence and let people make an informed decision on the future of the UK.

Surely the remain camp made it abundantly clear that things would be pretty dire if we left the EU and people still voted to leave. Why would we need another referendum  asking 'are you really sure?' We were given a choice and the majority chose the 'post brexit utopian fantasy' option as you called it. You can't eradicate that as a valid path forward just because you don't like the idea of it! 

 

The 'real alternative' to the EU is the UK as a truly independent nation in as many areas as is feasible and that is what the ordinary man on the street voted for. The rest is now over to the government to make the best of. The next 'referendum' will be the general election in 2020 and it will be at that point that the government will be held to account for whether or not they have done an adequate job. Cameron's disgusting dereliction of duty in only preparing for one of the two very possible outcomes may very well come back to bite the new PM.        

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20 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Surely the remain camp made it abundantly clear that things would be pretty dire if we left the EU and people still voted to leave. Why would we need another referendum  asking 'are you really sure?' We were given a choice and the majority chose the 'post brexit utopian fantasy' option as you called it. You can't eradicate that as a valid path forward just because you don't like the idea of it! 

 

The 'real alternative' to the EU is the UK as a truly independent nation in as many areas as is feasible and that is what the ordinary man on the street voted for. The rest is now over to the government to make the best of. The next 'referendum' will be the general election in 2020 and it will be at that point that the government will be held to account for whether or not they have done an adequate job. Cameron's disgusting dereliction of duty in only preparing for one of the two very possible outcomes may very well come back to bite the new PM.        

 

 

Your alternative to the  EU as a truly independent nation is not the only option and not what everyone who voted leave wants.

 

Being part of EFTA allows us to maintain close collaboration with the EU, whilst giving us a lot of freedoms  from EU rule, but it comes with certain conditions.

 

The post brexit utopian fantasy is not a valid path forwards because many things were offered but they were contradictory and were offered by people who would have no say in how the country left the EU. The result of leaving the EU will not satisfy all leave voters, and once the post brexit utopian fantasy becomes a post brexit reality based on facts, people should be allowed an informed choice between 2 or 3 concrete options.

 

You sound like you would be unhappy if we left the EU but kept freedom of movement, that is a definite possibility but was not offered as an option. Other leave voters voted to leave believing that we would join EFTA and if we don't would not be happy with the outcome. A leave vote was a vote for many possibilities, and you do not have a chance to have your say in how your vote is carried out.

 

Can people stop saying I lost, or I want to change it because I don't like the result. It is not about me, it is not me pushing for a second referendum, that is coming from the HoL from Owen Smith from others with power. Personally I can see how joining EFTA is a better option than the EU, but that wasn't an option which is why I couldn't vote to leave. I want to see the people given a choice between real options, not a choice between reality and anything else.

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5 hours ago, MattP said:

In fact if there was a second referendum I'm almost certain the vote would be fiddled anyway, no way would they go to that extent and not be absolutely 100% of getting the result they want.

 

how do you think it would be "fiddled"?

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The mistake was letting the public decide this in the first place, so I say bollocks to another referendum. Let the people who we elect and pay to make the big calls work outarrow-10x10.png what the best deal is, the public have done enough damage already.

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12 hours ago, Captain... said:

I didn't lose, why is everything so personal with you Matt? I am not whinging about it I am re-iterating what is being reported about the House of Lords. They believe they can block and delay the legislation (which we may not need) with the intention of forcing a second referendum. Seeing as we will not start  the process to leave until 2017 we have enough time to have a second referendum. Coincidence? There are some very powerful people who do not want us to leave, and the only way we could feasibly not leave, without causing a riot would be a second referendum.

 

I also don't understand this obsession with the referendum result must be acted upon regardless, even if it became irrefutably clear that it is no longer the will of the people, or that leaving the EU would harm the country. If you realise you are making a mistake you don't carry on regardless. There is process for forcing a re-election when it is clear that it has been a mistake, look at the Labour party they voted in Corbyn as leader it is a disaster they are trying to change it.

But the point is, if we have a second referendum, what stops us having a third, or a fourth? If it's clear the majority want leave, yet we just keep voting until the powers that be get the result they want, democracy would be gone. Either way, it would be political suicide for MPs and Lords who try to block us leaving the EU, they'd be forced out of a job.

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/aug/03/markets-await-uk-services-data-ahead-of-bank-of-england-meeting-business-live

 

9s ago09:45

The chances of the UK sliding into recession have increased, says Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, and an interest rate cut on Thursday now seems “a foregone conclusion.” He says:

The marked service sector downturn follows news from sister PMI surveys showing construction activity suffering its steepest decline since mid- 2009 and manufacturing output contracting at the fastest rate since late-2012. At these levels, the PMI data are collectively signalling a 0.4% quarterly rate of decline of GDP.

It’s too early to say if the surveys will remain in such weak territory in coming months, leaving substantial uncertainty over the extent of any potential downturn. However, the unprecedented month-on-month drop in the all-sector index has undoubtedly increased the chances of the UK sliding into at least a mild recession.

UK service sector PMI
 UK service sector PMI Photograph: Markit

Services providers are certainly bracing themselves for worse to come, with a record drop in business confidence about the year ahead leaving optimism at its lowest ebb since February 2009.

However, the extent of any downturn clearly depends to some degree on the policy response. The PMI is already deep into territory which would normally spur the Bank of England into taking action to stimulate the economy. A quarter-point cut in interest rates therefore seems to be a foregone conclusion at tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, though the extent and nature of other non-standard stimulus measures remains a far greater source of uncertainty and the subject of intense speculation.

 

5m ago09:40

The fall in the UK composite index from 51.9 to 47.3 in July was the biggest one month drop in the 20 year history of the survey.

 

9m ago09:36

UK economy shrinks at fastest rate since financial crisis

Ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, the UK economy has been confirmed as slowing at its fastest rate since the financial crisis.

The final reading of the UK services PMI for July came in at 47.4, down from 52.3 in June and in line with the flash reading two weeks ago.

The composite index of services and manufacturing was lower than the initial estimate, down from 51.9 in June to 47.3 and marking the lowest level since April 2009. The flash estimate was 47.7.

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16 hours ago, Captain... said:

 

 

Your alternative to the  EU as a truly independent nation is not the only option and not what everyone who voted leave wants.

 

Being part of EFTA allows us to maintain close collaboration with the EU, whilst giving us a lot of freedoms  from EU rule, but it comes with certain conditions.

 

The post brexit utopian fantasy is not a valid path forwards because many things were offered but they were contradictory and were offered by people who would have no say in how the country left the EU. The result of leaving the EU will not satisfy all leave voters, and once the post brexit utopian fantasy becomes a post brexit reality based on facts, people should be allowed an informed choice between 2 or 3 concrete options.

 

You sound like you would be unhappy if we left the EU but kept freedom of movement, that is a definite possibility but was not offered as an option. Other leave voters voted to leave believing that we would join EFTA and if we don't would not be happy with the outcome. A leave vote was a vote for many possibilities, and you do not have a chance to have your say in how your vote is carried out.

 

Can people stop saying I lost, or I want to change it because I don't like the result. It is not about me, it is not me pushing for a second referendum, that is coming from the HoL from Owen Smith from others with power. Personally I can see how joining EFTA is a better option than the EU, but that wasn't an option which is why I couldn't vote to leave. I want to see the people given a choice between real options, not a choice between reality and anything else.

I hear what you're saying, I just don't think you're being very realistic about how the process is going to work. Whether or not we're going to be in the free trade area or not will be decided in the two year period after article 50 is triggered, not after we leave the EU as you suggest. We really will be in big trouble if we don't have an answer to that question in two years time! 

 

Another problem with a further referendum is that the last two we have had in the UK have been dominated by whopping lies on both sides of the argument and I mean real stinkers, I think everybody, regardless of which way they voted agree with that. So would we really be properly informed of what the implications for the choices would be? I doubt it, so whats the point?

 

I didn't vote to leave over immigration concerns, although the idea of the thousands of radicalised Muslims that have settled in Europe with no kind of checks at all having the freedom to go where they want in 2-3 years time is at the back of my mind. I voted to leave the EU because it's a corrupt, undemocratic and unreformable juggernaut that needed somebody to blow one of the wheels off.

 

 

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Guest MattP
11 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

But the point is, if we have a second referendum, what stops us having a third, or a fourth? If it's clear the majority want leave, yet we just keep voting until the powers that be get the result they want, democracy would be gone. Either way, it would be political suicide for MPs and Lords who try to block us leaving the EU, they'd be forced out of a job.

As I said earlier if they had a second referendum they are keeping us in whatever, another leave vote wouldn't of all a sudden make those people think we have to leave now if they were sinister enough to force another plebiscite. Then as I say it's time for direct action on those people who wish to deny the will of the people, they should be treated no differently to anyone else through history who tried to deny the British people the right to democracy.

 

Although the latest Yougov poll now has leave ahead again (which given they had it 51-49% remain on the day of the ref means we are now looking at 54-46 leave) lol - http://order-order.com/2016/08/02/voters-dont-regret-brexit/ Which wouldn't surprise me at all given the main argument I heard from people in the last week of the campaign was that a "leave" vote was guaranteed to leave us "at the mercy" of PM Boris and his deputy Gove.

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On 8/1/2016 at 17:23, MattP said:

Be honest Captain, which one are you? lol

 

 

Please stop this "second referendum" nonsense, it really is silly, if anything now after a few weeks has passed and we have a stable government, the lies of being at the mercy of "Boris and Gove" (that was probably the most terrible lie of the lot in hindsight) trade deals being south from other nations and even the possibility a lot of the Labour party would campaign for Brexit to save their jobs I think the vote for a leave would probably be even bigger second time around, let only remain actually managing to close a gap of 1.3million odd.

lollollol

 

That video is absolutely amazing! Sums up a lot of the remainers down to a tee! Thx for posting.

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