Brexit Discussion Thread.

[The Doctor]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

As others have mentioned, this is not down to the Brexit date but more to do with the decision that we are going to start heavily borrowing again instead of paying off our debts, something you seem to actually want according to the other thread.

I think it's sad the way you have phrashed this though, almost like sovereignty isn't important, less than a century ago young men had to storm beaches into certain death to get their sovereignty, all we had to do was tick a box to get liberty and freedom back and if a few months of a devalued currency is what we have to go through I'd say we've got a good deal.

He's probably phrased it that way because we've not gained anything back, we already had our sovereignty. What we've actually done is throw away possibly the best position any country could be in for absolutely nothing. 

[Guest MattP]

38 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

He's probably phrased it that way because we've not gained anything back, we already had our sovereignty. What we've actually done is throw away possibly the best position any country could be in for absolutely nothing. 

Best position any country could be in? Have you not watched the news for ten years?

 

I'm sorry projects you are personally involved in might be losing some funding but for you to be omniscient about how this is all going to turn out is a bit silly, the reality is none of us know.

 

(and claims we had our sovereignty while we still couldn't deport people we wanted, control our borders, had our courts overruled were the reason you lost the referendum, people aren't stupid enough to believe you, they have eyes and watch the news, you must have a different definition of the word)

[The Doctor]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

Best position any country could be in? Have you not watched the news for ten years?

 

I'm sorry projects you are personally involved in might be losing some funding but for you to be omniscient about how this is all going to turn out is a bit silly, the reality is none of us know.

 

(and claims we had our sovereignty while we still couldn't deport people we wanted, control our borders, had our courts overruled were the reason you lost the referendum, people aren't stupid enough to believe you, they have eyes and watch the news, you must have a different definition of the word)

We had access to the single market without actually signing up to the full EU - getting the best out of membership while picking and choosing what we wanted to sign up to and getting discounted membership anyway. In terms of EU membership we were in an incredibly privileged position - and in a generation of so when we look to rejoin we'll never get that good a deal back.

 

I don't have any involvement in EU projects, but that doesn't change that the EU was actually beneficial for our R&D sector and therefore important for our future prosperity.

 

Who could we not deport that we wanted?  

[foxinexile]

I can understand why people associate Brexit with reclaiming our sovereignty although I would also respectfully point that that we were "sovereign" enough at the time to keep the Pound and not replace it with the Euro. Although this decision was based on sound fiscal judgement (and despite being a strong advocate of the EU, I do believe we absolutely made the right decision to retain it), there was very definitely an element of the desire to keep our sovereignty by not replacing it with a currency that had no historical or cultural relevance to our country. On this basis alone I don't believe it would have been possible for the then-government to introduce it - there would have been uproar and mass protest. As a side note, if we had introduced the Euro, I wonder what would happen now and what the effect would be? I assume we would return to the Pound once we had officially left the EU?

 

With regard to not having control over our own borders ... well, we effectively have control over part of France's border in Calais. British border checks are carried out there, so I find the argument that we have no border control quite weak and a bit of a misnomer really. Fortunately in August the 2003 Le Touquet treaty was reinforced with further commitment from both countries and will, I imagine, survive our exit from the EU. Despite calls from right-wing French politicians (and including Nicolas Sarkozy) for it to be scrapped, Bernard Cazeneuve has dismissed these calls. Were they listened to, our border control would return to Dover and I find it unlikely that the French would then put up much effort to prevent people crossing into the UK. So rather than lacking control of our own borders, we are actually allowed to control them from another country. And considering that Calais is a migrant "hotspot", I don't think our lack of control is an argument that can be effectively put forward. 

[Buce]

Why rising shares are not a sign of joy:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37553566

[The Railway Man]

Can anyone explain to me why all the people involved in the remain campaign have been awarded knighthoods, MBE's etc but no one from the leave side has?

 

Do you just reward failure now?

 

 

 

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, The Railway Man said:

Can anyone explain to me why all the people involved in the remain campaign have been awarded knighthoods, MBE's etc but no one from the leave side has?

 

Do you just reward failure now?

 

 

 

Well im not sure about you but to me, they did a great job of not promoting remain well enough.

[Buce]

How low can the pound go?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36721278

 

Grim reading.

[Wymsey]

Would hate to be a business owner now that mainly operates on foreign imports. Bleak forecast.

[GazzinderFox]

28 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Would hate to be a business owner now that mainly operates on foreign imports. Bleak forecast.

Would love to be a business owner now that mainly operates on foreign exports though. Great time to buy a hotel too. Loads more brits will be staying home next summer because of the low pound, loads more people will be visiting from abroad for the same reason. Book you holidays early!

[leicsmac]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/lse-brexit-non-uk-experts-foreign-academics?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

It's the Grauniad, but isn't this a bit like sticking your fingers in your ears and humming to drown out all the bad stuff happening around you? 

[Magictv]

2 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

Would love to be a business owner now that mainly operates on foreign exports though. Great time to buy a hotel too. Loads more brits will be staying home next summer because of the low pound, loads more people will be visiting from abroad for the same reason. Book you holidays early!

Shame we import £18bn more than we export then...

[The Doctor]

48 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/lse-brexit-non-uk-experts-foreign-academics?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

It's the Grauniad, but isn't this a bit like sticking your fingers in your ears and humming to drown out all the bad stuff happening around you? 

 

C'mon Mac, we don't need/want experts or foreigners now.

[Livid]

 

4 hours ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Would hate to be a business owner now that mainly operates on foreign imports. Bleak forecast.

That'll be the vast majority of the British high street names screwed then.

[Webbo]

10 minutes ago, Livid said:

 

That'll be the vast majority of the British high street names screwed then.

You think people are going to stop buying shoes, clothes and other consumer goods?

[GazzinderFox]

1 hour ago, Magictv said:

Shame we import £18bn more than we export then...

Yeah, and do you think that imbalance is going to get better or worse as a result of brexit? Especially if the French and Germans want to bargain hard.

 

By the way I'm speaking as someone who imports 90% of his products directly from the US so it's not like I don't feel the effects of a low pound, especially on days like today.

[The Doctor]

31 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Yeah, and do you think that imbalance is going to get better or worse as a result of brexit? Especially if the French and Germans want to bargain hard.

 

By the way I'm speaking as someone who imports 90% of his products directly from the US so it's not like I don't feel the effects of a low pound, especially on days like today.

For the UK? Worse. We lose our sales into the rest of the EU, particularly if (and it's not a big if given they're demanding danger money to stay investing) the likes of Nissan pull out and relocate to mainland Europe. We'll still need to import what we do now - even more so if we want to rebuild the manufacturing sectors to take advantage of the weak pound and have stuff to export.

 

41 minutes ago, Webbo said:

You think people are going to stop buying shoes, clothes and other consumer goods?

Quite obviously not what they're saying, but how much of those consumer goods are made in Britain?

[Webbo]

29 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

 

 

Quite obviously not what they're saying, but how much of those consumer goods are made in Britain?

So we'll import less while we're exporting more? Where's the downside?

[GazzinderFox]

1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

For the UK? Worse. We lose our sales into the rest of the EU

Oh yes sorry I forgot that on planet remain all trade with the EU ceases the moment we brexit.

 

Thats going to come as a mighty shock to the Germans with there +30 billion in surplus exports to the U.K!

[The Doctor]

11 hours ago, Webbo said:

So we'll import less while we're exporting more? Where's the downside?

No we won't - as you said, people will still buy consumer goods - precious few of which are made in the uk. So we'll still have to import stuff, but the prices for the importers will go up - hence why a low pound is bad for practically every high street shop 

 

10 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

Oh yes sorry I forgot that on planet remain all trade with the EU ceases the moment we brexit.

 

Thats going to come as a mighty shock to the Germans with there +30 billion in surplus exports to the U.K!

as I said - if, as looks likely, the likes of Nissan relocate into the eu, we have less to export. Companies within the EU may also look at alternative suppliers in the single market, which would also hurt our exports. We'll likely still import from the EU, demand for things like German cars isn't going to go away, but with a weak pound that isn't good news.

[BlueSi13]

45 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

No we won't - as you said, people will still buy consumer goods - precious few of which are made in the uk. So we'll still have to import stuff, but the prices for the importers will go up - hence why a low pound is bad for practically every high street shop 

 

as I said - if, as looks likely, the likes of Nissan relocate into the eu, we have less to export. Companies within the EU may also look at alternative suppliers in the single market, which would also hurt our exports. We'll likely still import from the EU, demand for things like German cars isn't going to go away, but with a weak pound that isn't good news.

Do you know how complex and costly it is to relocate a manufacturing plant? Especially one as large and as important to Nissan as the one in Sunderland?  

 

Nissan will know the score, they will understand the cost of leaving the single market and would have made their relocation plans clear upon the scenario that the EU decides to bring up the draw bridge to free trade.  However, they haven't done that.  The industry wants as few barriers to trade as possible of course.  However there are huge costs and difficulties with relocating also.

 

I am sure in the upcoming the negotiations the EU will circle the ideological wagons and deny us entry to the single market.  However what lies in the centre of that circle is a wounded, divided and declining organisation that is now under the complete control of Berlin.  This move would hurt the all-important Germans a lot more than the rest of the EU due to our huge trade surplus with them.  

 

There will be pain at this arrangement no doubt, however it won't take long before people start to notice that their pockets are getting lighter and when the bitter dust settles, deals will be made.  Business can never be stopped.

 

PS if you're still worried about the prospect of businesses leaving the UK, remember what happened to the Ford Transit factory when it closed in Southampton?  Remember where they relocated to?  Turkey.  A country NOT in the EU.  Food for thought.

[Livid]

One thing I think the last week has taught us is that politicians should stick to the facts, we're invoking Article 50 by March 2017, but need to tone down their posturing about a Hard Brexit.

 

With the financial markets and decisions on buying/selling currencies apparently dependent an a group of social media analysing algorithms we need to be very careful about who says what. Hammond talked about ups and downs but his own party conference was the catalyst for one of those downs.

 

This is a 30 month game of poker between us and the EU, neither of whom are holding particularly spectacular hands, which doesn't need to be played out in public.

[leicsmac]

23 minutes ago, Livid said:

One thing I think the last week has taught us is that politicians should stick to the facts, we're invoking Article 50 by March 2017, but need to tone down their posturing about a Hard Brexit.

 

With the financial markets and decisions on buying/selling currencies apparently dependent an a group of social media analysing algorithms we need to be very careful about who says what. Hammond talked about ups and downs but his own party conference was the catalyst for one of those downs.

 

This is a 30 month game of poker between us and the EU, neither of whom are holding particularly spectacular hands, which doesn't need to be played out in public.

Au contraire, IMO public is exactly where every detail of the negotiation should be.

 

Our elected officials decided to make the decision to exit the EU open to the public, I think it should follow that the consequences and mechanics of doing so should be equally transparent, public domain and open to interpretation. If they thought the public was educated and trustworthy enough to make such a big decision as this, they should also trust them to be educated and knowledgeable enough about what happens afterwards.

 

If they didn't want that, they should never have made the vote public in the first place.

[reynard]

14 hours ago, Webbo said:

So we'll import less while we're exporting more? Where's the downside?

 

Except the balance of trade deficit on goods alone increased by 2.6 billion pounds just in August.

We will only import less if we manufacture more or if the British public stop buying goods imported and only buy goods made in the UK. This was tried in the 1970s and failed! Even things manufactured in the UK often consist of components purchased in dollars. Since the vote we have suffered a 13% fall in currency value. This wasn't a policy advocated by our government and is an involuntary consequence of the vote. The worrying thing is we have not even left the EU yet but every time there is official talk of doing so the pound plummets in value.

The downside is that goods will become more expensive to buy, companies will either have to pass on costs to the customer or make less profits meaning there will eventually be less investment in jobs, infrastructure and equipment.

Some exporters may be doing well but not enough of them to help the economy in any significant way in the medium to long term.

[Nick]

On 5 September 2016 at 14:15, Jon the Hat said:

I have a loan Evoque from Land Rover today, it is nice, albeit pretty small, quite a hard ride too, but I suppose it has to be to corner so well given its height.  Quite nippy too - 2.2 Pure or something.

My Mrs has one - I love it in all honesty - the only faults are the seat belts are non adjustable, the cup holders are in front of the gear stick and it has big ears and a thick window frame strut that creates a bit of a blind spot which you have to get used to peering round!