The Doctor Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 1 hour ago, BlueSi13 said: Do you know how complex and costly it is to relocate a manufacturing plant? Especially one as large and as important to Nissan as the one in Sunderland? Nissan will know the score, they will understand the cost of leaving the single market and would have made their relocation plans clear upon the scenario that the EU decides to bring up the draw bridge to free trade. However, they haven't done that. The industry wants as few barriers to trade as possible of course. However there are huge costs and difficulties with relocating also. I am sure in the upcoming the negotiations the EU will circle the ideological wagons and deny us entry to the single market. However what lies in the centre of that circle is a wounded, divided and declining organisation that is now under the complete control of Berlin. This move would hurt the all-important Germans a lot more than the rest of the EU due to our huge trade surplus with them. There will be pain at this arrangement no doubt, however it won't take long before people start to notice that their pockets are getting lighter and when the bitter dust settles, deals will be made. Business can never be stopped. PS if you're still worried about the prospect of businesses leaving the UK, remember what happened to the Ford Transit factory when it closed in Southampton? Remember where they relocated to? Turkey. A country NOT in the EU. Food for thought. Nissan have been demanding danger money to keep investment in the UK and Maggie May has already decided we're not staying in the single market and announced that in the tory party conference. I know you brexiteers don't like reality but you could at least try and stay in the same room as it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reynard Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 07:51, MattP said: As others have mentioned, this is not down to the Brexit date but more to do with the decision that we are going to start heavily borrowing again instead of paying off our debts, something you seem to actually want according to the other thread. I think it's sad the way you have phrashed this though, almost like sovereignty isn't important, less than a century ago young men had to storm beaches into certain death to get their sovereignty, all we had to do was tick a box to get liberty and freedom back and if a few months of a devalued currency is what we have to go through I'd say we've got a good deal. I deal a lot with ex servicemen. Many of them WWII survivors. Not one of them that I know voted to leave. (Though I accept there will have been many that did, I can only speak from my own experiences) They all voted to remain as they saw it as the best way to keep the freedoms across the whole of Europe for which they all fought and for which many of their friends paid the highest price. In the 1974 referendum many also voted in favour. Surprisingly many consider the most important lasting legacy of their efforts to have been the creation of a more liberal Europe with less nationalism and freedom of movement which has allowed citizens all across the continent to aspire to reach the standards of living enjoyed by only the few at the time of the war. Many that I know are despondent about the decision to leave and feel that the sacrifices of their generation have been wasted and what they see is the potential threat of the rise of right wing nationalism across Europe, something they hope they had defeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 3 hours ago, BlueSi13 said: Do you know how complex and costly it is to relocate a manufacturing plant? Especially one as large and as important to Nissan as the one in Sunderland? Nissan will know the score, they will understand the cost of leaving the single market and would have made their relocation plans clear upon the scenario that the EU decides to bring up the draw bridge to free trade. However, they haven't done that. The industry wants as few barriers to trade as possible of course. However there are huge costs and difficulties with relocating also. I am sure in the upcoming the negotiations the EU will circle the ideological wagons and deny us entry to the single market. However what lies in the centre of that circle is a wounded, divided and declining organisation that is now under the complete control of Berlin. This move would hurt the all-important Germans a lot more than the rest of the EU due to our huge trade surplus with them. There will be pain at this arrangement no doubt, however it won't take long before people start to notice that their pockets are getting lighter and when the bitter dust settles, deals will be made. Business can never be stopped. PS if you're still worried about the prospect of businesses leaving the UK, remember what happened to the Ford Transit factory when it closed in Southampton? Remember where they relocated to? Turkey. A country NOT in the EU. Food for thought. I take your point about the cost and complexity of someone like Nissan relocating. They'd doubtless only do so if their long-term competitiveness was seriously affected, which it might not be if the UK stayed in the single market. However, that now looks unlikely. Firms like Nissan would face the prospect, for decades ahead, of competing against continental rivals enjoying all the competitive advantages of single market membership. In that context, Nissan would be crazy NOT to relocate, and would surely have to grin and bear the heavy relocation costs to keep the firm competitive? No doubt it would be a gradual process - gradually running down the Sunderland plant and building up continental facilities over years. You mention Ford Transit relocating to Turkey. No doubt lower labour costs were a key factor...but they're also able to make tariff-free exports to the EU as Turkey is a member of the EU customs union. Meanwhile, Liam Fox is calling for the UK to leave the customs union. So, we'd potentially be in a worse situation than Turkey for export tariffs as well as for labour (and land) costs. Meanwhile, here's Robert Peston with an excellent article explaining why we'd be unable to do our own trade deals with the likes of China and the USA unless we DID leave the customs union, with all the implications for incurring EU tariffs: http://www.itv.com/news/2016-09-22/mays-choice-admit-were-out-of-eu-customs-union-or-fox-is-redundant/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 Business leaders plead against 'hard Brexit': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37592866 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 8 October 2016 Share Posted 8 October 2016 59 minutes ago, Buce said: Business leaders plead against 'hard Brexit': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37592866 The CBI wanted us to join the Euro, I wouldn't take too much notice of them. It seems this sudden drop in the pound, which could have been due to a technical hitch, has made all the remainers come out and say I told you so, the same ones that tell us every time there is good news that we've not left yet. We all knew that there would be ups and downs in leaving, in truth it's been a lot better than anyone had hoped. Economically, over the next 2 and a half years there'll be good days and bad days, some Brexit related and some not. We're just going to have to get used to it, it's going to happen whether we like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 10 October 2016 Share Posted 10 October 2016 On 10/8/2016 at 12:12, reynard said: I deal a lot with ex servicemen. Many of them WWII survivors. Not one of them that I know voted to leave. (Though I accept there will have been many that did, I can only speak from my own experiences) They all voted to remain as they saw it as the best way to keep the freedoms across the whole of Europe for which they all fought and for which many of their friends paid the highest price. In the 1974 referendum many also voted in favour. Surprisingly many consider the most important lasting legacy of their efforts to have been the creation of a more liberal Europe with less nationalism and freedom of movement which has allowed citizens all across the continent to aspire to reach the standards of living enjoyed by only the few at the time of the war. Many that I know are despondent about the decision to leave and feel that the sacrifices of their generation have been wasted and what they see is the potential threat of the rise of right wing nationalism across Europe, something they hope they had defeated. It's amazing who we meet, off the top of my head I've probably only spoken to a handful of war vets but every single one voted out and were all quite passionate about it (given the age demographic of the vote we can be confident most of them did) I went to the funeral of one who spent his 19th birthday in a German POW camp on Friday, one of the last things he said to was "thank god we are out of that". We'll obviously agree to disagree on this but as I've said before I don't think any organisation has done more to help the far-right than the European Union in recent times, if you enforce austerity, ever closer union and people into their borders than they don't want you are pushing them into the arms of some of the parties we have seen, It can't be a coincidence that we've seen the biggest rise in that sort of politics across Europe whilst this lot have been in control of it. On 10/8/2016 at 14:12, Buce said: Business leaders plead against 'hard Brexit': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37592866 Are we still treating the CBI seriously? How many things do they have get wrong before we stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 'Hard Brexit will cost Treasury 66 billion per Year': https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/hard-brexit-treasury-66bn-eu-single-market Hey, but at least we have our sovereignty back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 From the same people who told us we'd be in recession by now with rising unemployment. There may be some short term drop in GDP but £66 billion? Just more project fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 Can't get my head around Buce now believing as gospel all these reports commissioned by George Osborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 The construction firm JCB has left the business lobby group, the CBI, reportedly because of its anti-Brexit stance. A JCB spokesperson confirmed that the company had ended its membership of the CBI, but did not give reasons why. Sky news had earlier reported that it was due to the group's response to the referendum outcome JCB's chairman, Lord Bamford, was a prominent supporter of the Brexit campaign. During the campaign he said: "The UK is the world's fifth largest trading nation. We therefore have little to fear from leaving the EU." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 8 minutes ago, MattP said: Can't get my head around Buce now believing as gospel all these reports commissioned by George Osborne. Who said anything about me believing them or otherwise? I'm not intelligent enough to verify their accuracy - I'm merely providing links to relevant articles for this debate. What you make of them is up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 39 minutes ago, Buce said: Who said anything about me believing them or otherwise? I'm not intelligent enough to verify their accuracy - I'm merely providing links to relevant articles for this debate. What you make of them is up to you. Apologies, I assumed the comment after it starting with "Hey, but at least" was an indicition you believed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 7 minutes ago, MattP said: Apologies, I assumed the comment after it starting with "Hey, but at least" was an indicition you believed it. it's a bit of a tongue-in-cheek response to the Brexiters, Matt. It seems that whenever anything negative is reported regarding the effects of Brexit, it is either dismissed as a continuation of Project Fear, or if indisputable (like the fall in the value of Sterling) is justified by having our sovereignty back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 4 minutes ago, Buce said: It seems that whenever anything negative is reported regarding the effects of Brexit, it is either dismissed as a continuation of Project Fear, or if indisputable (like the fall in the value of Sterling) is justified by having our sovereignty back. Well it is if you don't attach a price to your sovereignty, as I would imagine most people who voted to leave feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 20 minutes ago, MattP said: Well it is if you don't attach a price to your sovereignty, as I would imagine most people who voted to leave feel. As I've said before, I don't accept the premise that we lost it in the first place, but if we had, then the worst-case-scenario economic consequences that may come to pass would not be worth it, imo. But I'm not trying to convince anyone - 5 years posting on FT has shown me that nobody changes their mind about anything, regardless of the validity of the opposing argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bovril Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 I am happy to admit I know sweet fvck all about economics although I believe it is far from an exact science and even seasoned economists struggle to predict the future. But isn't all this 'I told you so' stuff missing the point somewhat, which is a) we haven't left yet and b) people didn't necessarily vote on economic reasons but for a range of very different and sometimes contradictory pledges that may be very difficult to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 2 hours ago, MattP said: Well it is if you don't attach a price to your sovereignty, as I would imagine most people who voted to leave feel. It's funny, isn't it? Of all the things folk could choose to put a value on beyond the material and don't, then they choose that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 15 minutes ago, leicsmac said: It's funny, isn't it? Of all the things folk could choose to put a value on beyond the material and don't, then they choose that. Really? I don't think I would put independence of self-governance behind anything, I think more people have given their lives for it than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 6 minutes ago, MattP said: Really? I don't think I would put independence of self-governance behind anything, I think more people have given their lives for it than anything else. Oh yes, I don't deny it has importance, and there have been many people that died for it around the world. I just find it interesting that this one factor is given that level of importance when there are others equally important that people mostly don't give a toss about. I wonder why that's the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerard Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 18:39, Webbo said: The FTSE is up 1.2% The only reason the FTSE is up is because of such a weak Pound. The FTSE companies are global companies so when Sterling is crashing it values them higher in Pounds. If you valued the FTSE in USD or Euros post Brexit then the FTSE hasn't gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 4 hours ago, Buce said: But I'm not trying to convince anyone - 5 years posting on FT has shown me that nobody changes their mind about anything, regardless of the validity of the opposing argument. That's quite true, but us sad fckers who inhabit the political threads enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37616750 FTSE goes up as a result of £'s value decreasing to new low... Exchange rate looking a bit pants it'll be a pound to the Euro soon it's already at 1.11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voll Blau Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 10 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37616750 FTSE goes up as a result of £'s value decreasing to new low... Exchange rate looking a bit pants it'll be a pound to the Euro soon it's already at 1.11 It was last week. Now at 1.07 everywhere I've looked today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted 11 October 2016 Share Posted 11 October 2016 3 minutes ago, Voll Blau said: It was last week. Now at 1.07 everywhere I've looked today. Okay - I'll blame the BBC for that info that they are alleging is only an hour old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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