Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Buce]

23 minutes ago, MattP said:

Come on, it doesn't matter what website it is that reports the video, we can see it, he doesn't mention immigration alongside it, if the video isn't enough you can read a report of the interview, he even also says the Brexit campaign have made it clear as well that is what will happen.

 

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-bbc-andrew-marr-ill-pull-uk-out-of-the-single-market-after-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/

 

There is simply no argument that voting to leave the EU didn't mean we were also voting to leave the single market, people knew what they were voting for.

 

What Peston said seems legit, I think we are going to have to leave the customs union to enjoy the benefits of setting our own trade deals with the rest of the World.

 

Yeah, but did they understand what they were voting for?

[Alf Bentley]

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

Come on, it doesn't matter what website it is that reports the video, we can see it, he doesn't mention immigration alongside it, if the video isn't enough you can read a report of the interview, he even also says the Brexit campaign have made it clear as well that is what will happen.

 

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-bbc-andrew-marr-ill-pull-uk-out-of-the-single-market-after-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/

 

There is simply no argument that voting to leave the EU didn't mean we were also voting to leave the single market, people knew what they were voting for.

 

What Peston said seems legit, I think we are going to have to leave the customs union to enjoy the benefits of setting our own trade deals with the rest of the World.

 

"He doesn't mention immigration alongside it"?!? 

You've quoted him doing so yourself!... "The prime minister told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show that it would be impossible to copy the Norwegian model by remaining inside the trading bloc despite being outside the EU because that would mean accepting freedom of movement and trade rules made in Brussels".

 

What you could certainly claim is that Cameron was trying to scare people to vote Remain in the (false) expectation that voters would be scared of losing the benefits of the single market. Alternatively, you could assume he was sincerely letting people know that the EU would not compromise on freedom of movement and that we'd have to leave the single market if we wanted freedom of movement.

 

Note, too, that he specifically discussed "the Norwegian model" (being outside the EU but inside the single market). Whether honestly or dishonestly, he claimed that it wasn't viable, but this is clear evidence that the Norwegian model was being debated - and the Leave camp never made it clear which model they preferred post-Brexit. Indeed they still haven't.

 

[Guest MattP]

13 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Yeah, but did they understand what they were voting for?

Who knows? Did remainers understand what they wer voting for? Did anybody?

 

I'm doing a Carl the Llama here but I met one person who voted to stay in because she thought leaving meant she couldn't go on holiday to Spain anymore.

 

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

"He doesn't mention immigration alongside it"?!? 

You've quoted him doing so yourself!... "The prime minister told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show that it would be impossible to copy the Norwegian model by remaining inside the trading bloc despite being outside the EU because that would mean accepting freedom of movement and trade rules made in Brussels".

 

What you could certainly claim is that Cameron was trying to scare people to vote Remain in the (false) expectation that voters would be scared of losing the benefits of the single market. Alternatively, you could assume he was sincerely letting people know that the EU would not compromise on freedom of movement and that we'd have to leave the single market if we wanted freedom of movement.

 

Note, too, that he specifically discussed "the Norwegian model" (being outside the EU but inside the single market). Whether honestly or dishonestly, he claimed that it wasn't viable, but this is clear evidence that the Norwegian model was being debated - and the Leave camp never made it clear which model they preferred post-Brexit. Indeed they still haven't.

 

It's been a long week.

 

They didn't mention what type of model they want because I imagine they will be trying to achieve a completely unique one, you wouldn't claim you are going for a model of a country who the EU has far less dependacy on and is a vastly smaller economy,

I'm not sure any leaver was deliberetely misguiding people with what they said, I certainly thought the EU could start to move (they do for a start, there have been temporary borders across member nations for a while now) towards policy where they won't blindly follow anything on idelogy purely because it's a founding principle but I may be proved wrong about that.

 

We still don't know for definite who we will even be dealing with, our plans could change just as much as the EU's, France and Germany have elections next year and it's possible they will both be under new leadership, if the EU isn't going to change, and the current lot have made that clear it won't while they are in charge, then by 2019 when we are due to leave it could be on the verge of collapse anyway. Eurosceptism is only going to go up across the continent.

[Jon the Hat]

**** it.  Go hard or go home.  Much better to chuck it all in, pay the poxy tariffs, and have our freedom to trade globally in goods, services and talent.

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

**** it.  Go hard or go home.  Much better to chuck it all in, pay the poxy tariffs, and have our freedom to trade globally in goods, services and talent.

Pretty much where I am now, if we go through all this for some half arsed deal that effectively keeps us inside the EU in everything but name then it was all for nothing.

 

If May wants to stay at 40%+ in the polls she should know that as well.

[Guest MattP]

18 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's been a long week.

One that has just got longer as well as I've just realised it's Thursday after thinking it has been Friday all morning.

[Alf Bentley]

30 minutes ago, MattP said:

Who knows? Did remainers understand what they wer voting for? Did anybody?

 

I'm doing a Carl the Llama here but I met one person who voted to stay in because she thought leaving meant she couldn't go on holiday to Spain anymore.

 

It's been a long week.

 

They didn't mention what type of model they want because I imagine they will be trying to achieve a completely unique one, you wouldn't claim you are going for a model of a country who the EU has far less dependacy on and is a vastly smaller economy,

I'm not sure any leaver was deliberetely misguiding people with what they said, I certainly thought the EU could start to move (they do for a start, there have been temporary borders across member nations for a while now) towards policy where they won't blindly follow anything on idelogy purely because it's a founding principle but I may be proved wrong about that.

 

We still don't know for definite who we will even be dealing with, our plans could change just as much as the EU's, France and Germany have elections next year and it's possible they will both be under new leadership, if the EU isn't going to change, and the current lot have made that clear it won't while they are in charge, then by 2019 when we are due to leave it could be on the verge of collapse anyway. Eurosceptism is only going to go up across the continent.

 

I didn't get the impression that the Leave crowd were misguiding people because they had some secret agenda. In interviews during the campaign, I got the impression that some might not have thought through which post-Brexit option was best - while others had preferences but didn't want to go into detail, maybe to avoid exposing differences with fellow Leave campaigners. There was no agreed Leave stance, anyway.

 

Given that the EU allowed member states to delay free movement for East Europeans by a few years, my guess is that they would offer some flexibility on freedom of movement, particularly if it meant avoiding the disruption of the UK leaving the single market and the loss of British contributions. That would suit most Remainers (and maybe a few "soft Leave" types), but not most Leavers, I'd guess. I'd be astonished if a complete end to freedom of movement was negotiable, though.

 

Good point about the outcome of the French and German elections affecting the negotiations. If Le Pen became French president, she'd doubtless be much more favourable to Europe as a continent of nationalist states and would presumably seek to take France out of the EU. A victory for the centre-right (Juppé or Sarkozy?) seems more likely; I'm not sure what their stance on Brexit would be. The German stance might not change that much even if Merkel does badly in their elections: unless the German Far Right (AfD) has a massive surge, presumably a Christian Democrat/Social Democrat grand coalition of some kind is likely - so their approach might not change much, even if Merkel lost her position (not 100% about that - I'm no expert on German politics).

 

Yep, the EU could easily fall apart within a few years if it doesn't reform - the main reason why I considered voting Leave. I hope it has the sense to reform, particularly on economic policy restrictions. Chaos in Europe doesn't sound a good idea.

[Guest MattP]

I'm certainly not an expert either, Merkel and the CDU/CSU (the latter is basically the former in Bavaria from what I gather) got a majority of just 11 on 40% of the vote last time, she's certainly not getting that this time barring something craxy happening.

 

Her biggest problem will appear to be she may only be able to go into coalition with the Alternative for Germany party, which I'm not sure would now be possible given the reason they have risen is Eurosceptism and her refugee plicy.

 

 

Good page on wiki for the French election as well.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

 

In short, Alain Juppe appears to be a very popular politician, Marine Le Pen polls well in the first round but will struggle in a run off. Francois Hollande looks done for.

 

In those it's bascaily,

 

Sarkozy hammers Hollande

Hollande may just edge out Le Pen but it's close

Juppe destroys Hollande

Juppe destroys Le Pen

 

What an absolute conundrum that is for voters, the only chance the socialists appear to have of winning is if Le Pen is the opposing candidate and the only way the hard right can win if is the socialist candidate is in.

 

[Carl the Llama]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Who knows? Did remainers understand what they wer voting for? Did anybody?

 

I'm doing a Carl the Llama here but I met one person who voted to stay in because she thought leaving meant she couldn't go on holiday to Spain anymore.

In a similar vein I know a Brexiter who had this annoying habit of speaking often and loudly of his big claims about how leaving would strengthening the economy and that there was absolutely no way there'd even be a decline in the pound, not even in the short term, making sure everyone within a mile could hear and generally being an arrogant twat shouting you down with the line of "I've studied economics" if you tried explaining to him that the pound would obviously fall in the short term at the very least with the uncertainty of the markets exacerbated by a vague leave stance.  I haven't heard him talking so boisterously about these issues of late.

[Nick]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

 

Surely Westminster will never give this the go-ahead?

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

 

Surely Westminster will never give this the go-ahead?

Why not? Polls are higher now in support for the Union than they were before indyref1, the SNP are a busted flush and only the cult around them sees them as some of sort of credible, radical anti-austerity party anymore.

 

(discussed in the politics thread)

[Jon the Hat]

SNP are challenging the Labour leadership for the lowest level of credibility award at the moment aren't they?

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

I'm certainly not an expert either, Merkel and the CDU/CSU (the latter is basically the former in Bavaria from what I gather) got a majority of just 11 on 40% of the vote last time, she's certainly not getting that this time barring something craxy happening.

 

Her biggest problem will appear to be she may only be able to go into coalition with the Alternative for Germany party, which I'm not sure would now be possible given the reason they have risen is Eurosceptism and her refugee plicy.

 

Good page on wiki for the French election as well.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

 

In short, Alain Juppe appears to be a very popular politician, Marine Le Pen polls well in the first round but will struggle in a run off. Francois Hollande looks done for.

 

In those it's bascaily,

 

Sarkozy hammers Hollande

Hollande may just edge out Le Pen but it's close

Juppe destroys Hollande

Juppe destroys Le Pen

 

What an absolute conundrum that is for voters, the only chance the socialists appear to have of winning is if Le Pen is the opposing candidate and the only way the hard right can win if is the socialist candidate is in.

 

 

Merkel is already in coalition with the SPD (Social Democrats), isn't she? Presumably that coalition could continue, if the numbers don't change too much?

Alternatively, your poll graph suggests that the centrist FDP are back above 5% again. They've been in coalition with Merkel's Christian Democrats (centre-right) before, but weren't an option last time as the German system gives very little parliamentary representation to any party with less than 5% of the national vote. So, that's another option. I can't imagine AfD ("Alternative for Germany" - equivalent to UKIP?) being in government unless they have a massive surge before the elections - mainstream German politicians are very cautious about having anything to do with right-wing nationalist parties for obvious historical reasons....

 

Under the French system (2nd round play-off between the 2 leading candidates in the 1st round), Juppé must be strong favourite. If Hollande - or whoever is the Socialist candidate - is eliminated in the 1st round, leftist voters would massively support Juppé against Le Pen in the 2nd round, as happened in 2002, surely? I presume it would work the other way round, too - that if Le Pen finishes 3rd, her supporters would back Juppé over Hollande? Maybe not to the same extent, but Juppé (or whoever is the centre-right candidate) is strong favourite, surely?

 

That all suggests that, unless something dramatic happens in the coming months, French and German attitudes to Brexit might not change a lot....

[Nick]

57 minutes ago, MattP said:

Why not? Polls are higher now in support for the Union than they were before indyref1, the SNP are a busted flush and only the cult around them sees them as some of sort of credible, radical anti-austerity party anymore.

 

(discussed in the politics thread)

So SNP supporters are part of a cult and so are Labour Party supporters as you wrote in the other thread - Tories are they a cult too?

 

Or is cult the word you are using today to label and discredit any views that are not your own....

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

SNP are challenging the Labour leadership for the lowest level of credibility award at the moment aren't they?

It's like a three way battle royal for it these days/

 

UKIP raise the bar by punching each others lights out in the European Parliament, Labour hear about it and promote Diane Abbott to home secretary whilst organise a rise to power around "concerts for Corbyn", and then the SNP show up and throw together another economic plan that makes the Green party look fiscally capable.

 

Ironacially, this was the time in history where a young, good looking, competent politician like Nick Clegg would have been absolutely perfect for the Liberal Democrats, instead of the cross between Sooty Bear and Les Dennis they currently have in charge.

 

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Merkel is already in coalition with the SPD (Social Democrats), isn't she? Presumably that coalition could continue, if the numbers don't change too much?

Alternatively, your poll graph suggests that the centrist FDP are back above 5% again. They've been in coalition with Merkel's Christian Democrats (centre-right) before, but weren't an option last time as the German system gives very little parliamentary representation to any party with less than 5% of the national vote. So, that's another option. I can't imagine AfD ("Alternative for Germany" - equivalent to UKIP?) being in government unless they have a massive surge before the elections - mainstream German politicians are very cautious about having anything to do with right-wing nationalist parties for obvious historical reasons....

 

Under the French system (2nd round play-off between the 2 leading candidates in the 1st round), Juppé must be strong favourite. If Hollande - or whoever is the Socialist candidate - is eliminated in the 1st round, leftist voters would massively support Juppé against Le Pen in the 2nd round, as happened in 2002, surely? I presume it would work the other way round, too - that if Le Pen finishes 3rd, her supporters would back Juppé over Hollande? Maybe not to the same extent, but Juppé (or whoever is the centre-right candidate) is strong favourite, surely?

 

That all suggests that, unless something dramatic happens in the coming months, French and German attitudes to Brexit might not change a lot....

You are right, the CDU/CSU were just short of a majority last time out, so it will just be a continuation, although would Merkel's job be safe if the parties vote share went down as far as it was predicted to?

 

Quote

 

Many SPD insiders do not want to work with The Left. One day after the election, Merkel announced that she had already spoken with the SPD, but would not rule out other possibilities.^[35] An opinion poll conducted shortly after the election showed that 65% of SPD members were opposed to entering a Merkel-led grand coalition,^[36] however the SPD executive voted to enter coalition talks^[37] with the proviso that they would seek a vote from their membership before making a final agreement on entering a coalition.^[38]

The Greens were "open" to coalition talks with the CDU/CSU,^[39] but CSU leaders said they opposed a coalition with the Greens.^[40] The Greens announced they would not consider going into coalition with the Left.^[41]

Formal talks began in the first week of October when Merkel met SPD leaders on 4 October. She said: "Europe is watching us, the world is watching us. We have the common responsibility to build a stable government." She also planned to hold talks with the Greens the following week.^[42] After five weeks of negotiations that culminated in an all-night session 27–28 November, the CDU/CSU reached agreement with the SPD to form a new coalition government. Issues resolved in the talks included the planned introduction of a minimum hourly wage of €8.50 in 2015 and no new taxes. The deal depended on approval by the SPD rank and file, with a poll set for 6 December.^[43][44][45] On 14 December, 76% of the SPD's members voted for the coalition to go ahead. The new government under Chancellor Angela Merkel was sworn in on 17 December.^[46]

 

 

It makes it all a bit farcial really if the biggest two parties are prepared to make a coalition. Pointless even voting.

[foxy boxing]

i just want to apologise for everyone in Britain for Lily Allen,a one time musician who is now totally unimportant who just likes shooting her mouth off about whatever can get her media attention. once again we are all sorry(you have no idea)

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

So SNP supporters are part of a cult and so are Labour Party supporters as you wrote in the other thread - Tories are they a cult too?

 

Or is cult the word you are using today to label and discredit any views that are not your own....

Not at all, I agree with a lot of of their policy but UKIP are a cult as well, the parties themselves aren't cults of course, but the sections if people inside them who are devoutly dedicated to one person or cause in it are. I don;t agree wih the Lib Dems but I don't see any "cult like" behaviour from their members.

 

When they surround someone (usually a glorious leader, a la Corbyn) and then even when faced with beyond doubt evidence he's done wrong ie lying on the Train and they still blindly defend him then I think it heads into the territory of being a cult, the same is said for the others but just replace comrade Corbyn with Farage or the desire to Scottish Independence no matter what inconvient fact is thrown up.

 

There are certainly some Tory cultists around Thatcher and Sir Robert Peel if you want to go back in time.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

You are right, the CDU/CSU were just short of a majority last time out, so it will just be a continuation, although would Merkel's job be safe if the parties vote share went down as far as it was predicted to?

 

It makes it all a bit farcial really if the biggest two parties are prepared to make a coalition. Pointless even voting.

 

I don't know enough about German politics to speculate as to whether Merkel would have to go and be replaced by another Christian Democrat leader if polls are accurate.

I'm sure she'd go if they finished behind the SPD or AfD, but that doesn't look likely.

 

It's only a couple of times that they've had this "grand coalition" of the 2 big parties, isn't it? Merkel's Christian Democrats were in coalition with the centrist FDP before, and the SPD (centre-left) were in coalition with the Greens.

All depends on the numbers, I suppose - with the complication of the 5% threshold (no seats unless you get 5% nationally or win individual seats outright, I think)

[bovril]

11 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

i just want to apologise for everyone in Britain for Lily Allen,a one time musician who is now totally unimportant who just likes shooting her mouth off about whatever can get her media attention. once again we are all sorry(you have no idea)

Agreed, she is absolutely cringe-worthy.

[bovril]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Not at all, I agree with a lot of of their policy but UKIP are a cult as well, the parties themselves aren't cults of course, but the sections if people inside them who are devoutly dedicated to one person or cause in it are. I don;t agree wih the Lib Dems but I don't see any "cult like" behaviour from their members.

 

When they surround someone (usually a glorious leader, a la Corbyn) and then even when faced with beyond doubt evidence he's done wrong ie lying on the Train and they still blindly defend him then I think it heads into the territory of being a cult, the same is said for the others but just replace comrade Corbyn with Farage or the desire to Scottish Independence no matter what inconvient fact is thrown up.

 

There are certainly some Tory cultists around Thatcher and Sir Robert Peel if you want to go back in time.

Typo?

[Guest MattP]

Whoever does these videos at Sky needs a payrise, this is quite brilliant.

 

 

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Whoever does these videos at Sky needs a payrise, this is quite brilliant.

 

 

 wow!

[Darkon84]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Whoever does these videos at Sky needs a payrise, this is quite brilliant.

 

 

Bloody brilliant

 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

On 13/10/2016 at 11:32, MattP said:

Pretty much where I am now, if we go through all this for some half arsed deal that effectively keeps us inside the EU in everything but name then it was all for nothing.

 

If May wants to stay at 40%+ in the polls she should know that as well.

I doubt she's going to stay at 40%+.

 

She's been dealt a pretty shitty hand really and pretty soon, the more she crashes at PMQ's and when (trust me it's gonna happen) she has to backtrack on Brexit, she'll become a party sacrificial lamb.

[Great Boos Up]

Today all my companies raw material suppliers (all in Europe) got together and put prices up 4%. We can just about take that on the chin but if it happens again we will have to put ours up. Hopefully the pound will hold at this level as there is not much more to crash against the Euro. Surely it's 10% stronger than the Euro? Some UK companies stick prices up as a knee jerk reaction but speaking to the MD if we get another wave of increases we will have to increase our prices and as lower end packaging company this will trickle right through to every consumable in your kitchen cupboards.

Just crack on with article 50. markets hate uncertainty and at least we will know what kind pitch we are playing on. A swift short sharp shock is the better than a long drawn out turmoil.