Brexit Discussion Thread.

[davieG]

Quote

 

Ceta: EU 'not capable' of signing deal says Canadian minister

21 October 2016

 

From the sectionEurope

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Media captionChrystia Freeland says the EU is "not capable" of an international trade agreement

A trade deal between the EU and Canada is on the brink of collapse because a Belgian region with a population of just 3.6 million opposes it.

An emotional Canadian Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland left the talks in Brussels, saying the EU was "not capable" of signing a trade agreement.

Belgium, the only country blocking accord, needed consent from the regional parliament of Wallonia.

The wide-ranging deal, seven years in the making, was to be signed next week.

Belgium-Canada Ceta trade dispute bedevils EU summit

Speaking outside the seat of the Walloon government, Ms Freeland told reporters: "It seems evident for me and for Canada that the European Union is not now capable of having an international accord even with a country that has values as European as Canada."

 

"  who say Ceta and deals like it give too much power to multinationals - power even to intimidate governments. "

 

Too big, too encompassing and too powerful against individual countries and their people.

[Webbo]

58 minutes ago, davieG said:

"  who say Ceta and deals like it give too much power to multinationals - power even to intimidate governments. "

 

Too big, too encompassing and too powerful against individual countries and their people.

I believe the Walloons rejected the deal because their farmers couldn't compete with free trade. That's the problem with EU trade deals, too many individual countries, in this case regions, with their own agenda.

[Alf Bentley]

Interesting article from the "Irish Times": http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041#.WA5hJauZ9Lg.twitter

 

It floats the idea of a new federal post-Brexit state of SCINI (not Scunny....SCotland, Ireland & Northern Ireland).

 

It makes more sense than might initially seem to be the case - at least for the 2 parts of Ireland.

Not sure how happy the Northern Irish Proddies would be, though, and it would presumably require a hard border between England and Scotland (though that would be true if the SNP won independence, anyway).

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Interesting article from the "Irish Times": http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041#.WA5hJauZ9Lg.twitter

 

It floats the idea of a new federal post-Brexit state of SCINI (not Scunny....SCotland, Ireland & Northern Ireland).

 

It makes more sense than might initially seem to be the case - at least for the 2 parts of Ireland.

Not sure how happy the Northern Irish Proddies would be, though, and it would presumably require a hard border between England and Scotland (though that would be true if the SNP won independence, anyway).

Good read that, although I don't think it's got any chance of happening, there would be absolutely no desire for that in Northern Ireland, they shouldn't be too affected anyway, the Irish government has expressed a desire for no hard border, the British government has expressed a desire for no hard border, Stormont has expressed a desire for no hard border and the EU has expressed a desire for no hard border, so if we get a hard border, something has gone seriously wrong in negotiations.

 

Although I still think Sturgeon is bluffing here, she is going to throw her toys out the pram at every opportunity and has to rely on making this look like we have deliberetely screwed Scotland over in order to further her cause, the SNP are struggling now to deflect from their own failings as a government and are going to hang onto this like a lifejacket, a desperate attempt to stay in the EU via the backdoor because they know financially they haven't got a chance of being accepted without huge tax rises and severe spending cuts.

 

When you actually look at the facts, Scotland exports 64% of its produce to the rest of the UK, when you take that out it's only 16% to the EU. So the idea they are going to be better off with free trade in Europe than Britain doesn't really make any sense, the economic case for an independent Scotland was weak in 2014, it's a corpse now and I think the SNP know it and that's why there has been no shift towards independence. She should also remeber far more people voted for Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom than the European Union.

 

On this subject does anyone know if this is true? if it is I like Billy Connolly far more than I did before

 

http://www.inspiringquotes.us/quotes/VdsT_Bg9hu3vE

 

Quote

"Braveheart is pure Australian shiteWilliam Wallace was a spy, a thief, a blackmailer - a c**t basically. And people are swallowing it. It's part of a new Scottish racism, which I loath - this thing that everything horrible is English. It's conducted by the great unread and the conceited w***ers at the SNP, those dreary little pr**ks in Parliament who rely on bigotry for support"

 

[Alf Bentley]

39 minutes ago, MattP said:

Good read that, although I don't think it's got any chance of happening, there would be absolutely no desire for that in Northern Ireland, they shouldn't be too affected anyway, the Irish government has expressed a desire for no hard border, the British government has expressed a desire for no hard border, Stormont has expressed a desire for no hard border and the EU has expressed a desire for no hard border, so if we get a hard border, something has gone seriously wrong in negotiations.

 

Although I still think Sturgeon is bluffing here, she is going to throw her toys out the pram at every opportunity and has to rely on making this look like we have deliberetely screwed Scotland over in order to further her cause, the SNP are struggling now to deflect from their own failings as a government and are going to hang onto this like a lifejacket, a desperate attempt to stay in the EU via the backdoor because they know financially they haven't got a chance of being accepted without huge tax rises and severe spending cuts.

 

When you actually look at the facts, Scotland exports 64% of its produce to the rest of the UK, when you take that out it's only 16% to the EU. So the idea they are going to be better off with free trade in Europe than Britain doesn't really make any sense, the economic case for an independent Scotland was weak in 2014, it's a corpse now and I think the SNP know it and that's why there has been no shift towards independence. She should also remeber far more people voted for Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom than the European Union.

 

On this subject does anyone know if this is true? if it is I like Billy Connolly far more than I did before

 

http://www.inspiringquotes.us/quotes/VdsT_Bg9hu3vE

 

 

 

You might well be right about SNP party political calculations and the weakness of the economic case for Scottish independence. Hard Brexit could easily boost the political case for Scottish independence, though, particularly if there are economic problems (and the SNP would be able to blame Brexit for economic problems, whether they were caused by Brexit or by their own policies).

 

It's true that as an absolute figure (not a %) more people voted for Scotland to stay in the UK than in the EU - but not "far more":

- 2,001,926 (55%) voted to stay in the UK on an 84.5% turnout

- 1,661,191 (62%) voted to stay in the EU on a 67.2% turnout 

 

Re. Norn Iron: I reckon a lot of Catholics would be happier with a federal, 3-nation SCINI (Scotland, Rep. Ireland & N. Ireland) inside the EU and they constitute about 45% of the population, I think. I'm guessing that only a minority of Ulster Protestants would fancy it, but maybe more than we might think if they were in with their Scottish forefathers, with constitutional guarantees and not under "Rome rule" via Dublin? Worth remembering that even the Northern Irish protestants only voted narrowly for Brexit.

 

What are we anticipating instead of a hard Irish border then? Immigration controls between the island of Great Britain and the island of Ireland, and customs checks at inland sites instead of the border or random checks on the roads/railways?

If we do get Hard Brexit with tariffs between the EU and UK, the lack of a hard border would presumably generate smuggling issues to avoid tariffs, wouldn't it? Also, presumably EU migrants would enjoy free movement into Northern Ireland, but without the right to work....though they would be able to live there and commute into the Irish Republic (or work illegally), I presume?

[Alf Bentley]

Short notice, but this should be an interesting event: http://www.dmu.ac.uk/about-dmu/events/events-calendar/2016/october/eu-question-time.aspx

I'll be attending and will report back (you'll be delighted to hear)...

 

EU Question Time

Location

Hugh Aston Building, Leicester De Montfort Uni

Date(s)

26/10/2016 (17:30-19:30)

Contact

To reserve your place please complete the booking form, email[email protected] or call 0116 257 7164

You are warmly invited to join in a special debate exploring the issues behind the European Union headlines.

Professor Alasdair Blair from De Montfort University will Chair a panel of three former MEPs: Jose Maria Gil-Robles (Spain), Gay Mitchell (Ireland) and Barbara Weiler (Germany) who will speak on a range of issues including:

● Which direction now for the EU?

● Unity and diversity in the EU

● The implications of Brexit

● Europe's security challenges

There will also be the opportunity for questions from the audience and guests are encouraged to email in questions to [email protected] by Friday 21st October. (Please note we cannot guarantee that all questions will be selected).

The evening will begin with refreshments in the Hugh Aston atrium at 5:30pm. The debate will start at 6pm and last approximately one hour. A drinks reception will then follow.

[Wymsey]

Brexit may make staff to opt for job security than hope in wage rise.

http://news.sky.com/story/wage-rises-hold-key-to-brexit-price-pressure-10616501

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

May not be too bad for certain industry staff.

https://www.ft.com/content/d0829086-96bc-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582

 

Any chance of a copy & paste? It's behind an FT pay wall....

[Wymsey]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

Any chance of a copy & paste? It's behind an FT pay wall....

Edited for new view on Brexit.

[Guest MattP]

36 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You might well be right about SNP party political calculations and the weakness of the economic case for Scottish independence. Hard Brexit could easily boost the political case for Scottish independence, though, particularly if there are economic problems (and the SNP would be able to blame Brexit for economic problems, whether they were caused by Brexit or by their own policies).

 

It's true that as an absolute figure (not a %) more people voted for Scotland to stay in the UK than in the EU - but not "far more":

- 2,001,926 (55%) voted to stay in the UK on an 84.5% turnout

- 1,661,191 (62%) voted to stay in the EU on a 67.2% turnout 

 

Re. Norn Iron: I reckon a lot of Catholics would be happier with a federal, 3-nation SCINI (Scotland, Rep. Ireland & N. Ireland) inside the EU and they constitute about 45% of the population, I think. I'm guessing that only a minority of Ulster Protestants would fancy it, but maybe more than we might think if they were in with their Scottish forefathers, with constitutional guarantees and not under "Rome rule" via Dublin? Worth remembering that even the Northern Irish protestants only voted narrowly for Brexit.

 

What are we anticipating instead of a hard Irish border then? Immigration controls between the island of Great Britain and the island of Ireland, and customs checks at inland sites instead of the border or random checks on the roads/railways?

If we do get Hard Brexit with tariffs between the EU and UK, the lack of a hard border would presumably generate smuggling issues to avoid tariffs, wouldn't it? Also, presumably EU migrants would enjoy free movement into Northern Ireland, but without the right to work....though they would be able to live there and commute into the Irish Republic (or work illegally), I presume?

 

Maybe not far more, but 350,000 is still a pretty significant number in Scotland, Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit or no Brexit it's hard to envisage any Northern Irish proddy I know voting to leave the United Kingdom, although I know a very small number and none of them are part of the young generation that voted strongly to remain.

 

I wouldn't imagine any change in the border, this has been the case since 1923, long before the European Union and I see no need to change it, keep it as it is now with you just having to show ID if crossing onto the UK mainland, I may be wrong but I can't see an influx of EU migrants into Northern Ireland via Ireland.

 

Do report back on that debate, had I known about it a bit earlier I would have made the effort to go (although I think they should have put at least one Eurosceptic on the panel rather than three pro Europeans, I'm sure Roger Helmer was avaliable).

[Strokes]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Short notice, but this should be an interesting event: http://www.dmu.ac.uk/about-dmu/events/events-calendar/2016/october/eu-question-time.aspx

I'll be attending and will report back (you'll be delighted to hear)...

 

EU Question Time

Location

Hugh Aston Building, Leicester De Montfort Uni

Date(s)

26/10/2016 (17:30-19:30)

Contact

To reserve your place please complete the booking form, email[email protected] or call 0116 257 7164

You are warmly invited to join in a special debate exploring the issues behind the European Union headlines.

Professor Alasdair Blair from De Montfort University will Chair a panel of three former MEPs: Jose Maria Gil-Robles (Spain), Gay Mitchell (Ireland) and Barbara Weiler (Germany) who will speak on a range of issues including:

● Which direction now for the EU?

● Unity and diversity in the EU

● The implications of Brexit

● Europe's security challenges

There will also be the opportunity for questions from the audience and guests are encouraged to email in questions to [email protected] by Friday 21st October. (Please note we cannot guarantee that all questions will be selected).

The evening will begin with refreshments in the Hugh Aston atrium at 5:30pm. The debate will start at 6pm and last approximately one hour. A drinks reception will then follow.

Gay Mitchell 

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Gay Mitchell 

 

Something queer about that, Strokes? 

[Buce]

"I'm white and working class. I'm sick of Brexiters saying they speak for me":

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/25/white-working-class-brexiters-politicians-bigotry

[Alf Bentley]

One by one, all those wonderful new non-EU trade deals promised by the Brexiteers seem to be unravelling.....

 

Australia this time: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5f0e18e0-9a26-11e6-b375-620558266136 

 

Australia has ruled out starting negotiations on a free trade deal with the government until after Britain has formally left the European Union. In a blow to Liam Fox’s plans to line up deals for the UK to sign shortly after Brexit, his Australian opposite number Steven Ciobo said that he had received advice that this would be illegal. He added that while he believed that a trade deal would then be negotiated as “efficiently and promptly as possible”, he refused to give it a time frame. Privately Australian officials want the deal to include privileged access to UK labour…

[Webbo]

53 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

One by one, all those wonderful new non-EU trade deals promised by the Brexiteers seem to be unravelling.....

 

Australia this time: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5f0e18e0-9a26-11e6-b375-620558266136 

 

Australia has ruled out starting negotiations on a free trade deal with the government until after Britain has formally left the European Union. In a blow to Liam Fox’s plans to line up deals for the UK to sign shortly after Brexit, his Australian opposite number Steven Ciobo said that he had received advice that this would be illegal. He added that while he believed that a trade deal would then be negotiated as “efficiently and promptly as possible”, he refused to give it a time frame. Privately Australian officials want the deal to include privileged access to UK labour…

We already knew that we couldn't negotiate deals until after Brexit.

[bovril]

4 hours ago, Strokes said:

Gay Mitchell 

The oft-forgotten about third member of the Mitchell brothers.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We already knew that we couldn't negotiate deals until after Brexit.

We will probably still strike one with Canada first.

[bovril]

4 hours ago, Buce said:

"I'm white and working class. I'm sick of Brexiters saying they speak for me":

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/25/white-working-class-brexiters-politicians-bigotry

I'm white and not working class and I think the English obsession with race and class was one of the factors behind the referendum result.

[Alf Bentley]

42 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We already knew that we couldn't negotiate deals until after Brexit.

 

Fact check: FALSE

The Vote Leave campaign claimed that we could start negotiating trade deals immediately:

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june.html

" After we Vote Leave, we would immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals with emerging economies and the world’s biggest economies (the US, China and Japan, as well as Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and so on), which could enter into force immediately after the UK leaves the EU".

[Barky]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

One by one, all those wonderful new non-EU trade deals promised by the Brexiteers seem to be unravelling.....

 

Australia this time: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5f0e18e0-9a26-11e6-b375-620558266136 

 

Australia has ruled out starting negotiations on a free trade deal with the government until after Britain has formally left the European Union. In a blow to Liam Fox’s plans to line up deals for the UK to sign shortly after Brexit, his Australian opposite number Steven Ciobo said that he had received advice that this would be illegal. He added that while he believed that a trade deal would then be negotiated as “efficiently and promptly as possible”, he refused to give it a time frame. Privately Australian officials want the deal to include privileged access to UK labour…

Privileged access to U.K. Labour eh? You drive a hard bargain, Australia, but we'll graciously accept your offer. And allow me personally to be the first to offer my services. My country needs me, and those waves won't surf themselves.

[Webbo]

13 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Fact check: FALSE

The Vote Leave campaign claimed that we could start negotiating trade deals immediately:

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june.html

" After we Vote Leave, we would immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals with emerging economies and the world’s biggest economies (the US, China and Japan, as well as Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and so on), which could enter into force immediately after the UK leaves the EU".

Maybe they claimed that at the time, I don't know, but it's been common knowledge for months we can't negotiate any deals until we've left.

[Strokes]

51 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Maybe they claimed that at the time, I don't know, but it's been common knowledge for months we can't negotiate any deals until we've left.

We could always have private discussions, like ttip.

[Alf Bentley]

48 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Maybe they claimed that at the time, I don't know, but it's been common knowledge for months we can't negotiate any deals until we've left.

 

So it's OK that Vote Leave lied about this during the campaign, because it's now common knowledge that they were lying? 

 

Vote Leave made that claim about immediately negotiating new trade deals on 15th June.

 

On 14th June, one day before, this bloke pointed out that such trade negotiations would only take place AFTER Brexit has happened and other countries know whether we're staying in the single market etc.

The relevant bit is from 22:40 in the video (though the couple of minutes before that are pretty relevant, too):

 

 

 

[Webbo]

I don't see the point on posting such partisan commentators. There are plenty on both sides and it's only their opinion at the end of the day. Time has proven the remain campaign to be based on unrealistic scaremongering. There were lies and exaggeration on both sides, same as in all elections. The results are in, there's no point trying to fight the campaign again.

 

BTW does anyone have any objections to me changing the name of this thread to "The Brexit Thread" or any other suggestion?

[ajthefox]

I for one am sick of the media still using "remainers" and "brexiters", chastising those who voted in a different way like petty children.

 

Politics and political journalism are petty and full of shite but maybe in this instance where we are now all in one boat, we should try and work together instead of trying to throw each other off the fecking sides.