Brexit Discussion Thread.

[The Railway Man]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live

 

Quote

Nissan’s surprise announcement came just as McDonnell .was giving a speech about the economy, which is rather bad luck for Labour (unless the dark arts of political spin are in play...) 

[The Doctor]

What are these "support and reassurances"?

 

Given Nissan have basically said if you shorten our profit margins you're covering the extra or we're off, surely either we're going for soft brexit with us being on the single market, or we're going to be subsidising Nissan.

[bovril]

I find the whole debate a fascinating study in human behaivour. Supporters of both sides contradicting themselves and alligning themselves with causes that seem to be the exact opposite of their political position in an attempt to be proved right. And all this before we've even left.

All has a whiff of divide and conquer about it.

[The Railway Man]

41 minutes ago, bovril said:

I find the whole debate a fascinating study in human behaivour. Supporters of both sides contradicting themselves and alligning themselves with causes that seem to be the exact opposite of their political position in an attempt to be proved right. And all this before we've even left.

All has a whiff of divide and conquer about it.

Can't really argue with that, does seem to be.....

Brexit news for Leavers:

IF BAD = "Too soon to tell, we haven't left yet", "Project Fear,
"You lost get over it", "Treason"

IF GOOD = " Brexit was a good idea, this proves it"

 

Brexit news for Remainers:

IF BAD = "We told you so." "Thick bastards, you've ****ed everything up" "Cancel Brexit" "RACISTS"

IF GOOD = "It's too soon to tell" "We haven't even left yet" 

[The Railway Man]

57 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

What are these "support and reassurances"?

 

Given Nissan have basically said if you shorten our profit margins you're covering the extra or we're off, surely either we're going for soft brexit with us being on the single market, or we're going to be subsidising Nissan.

Do you have any evidence for that or is just more speculation and hearsay to do what Bovril is saying above and try and throw something bad on another prediction gone awol from remain? If we had told them we were going for soft Brexit you would have seen a massive upsurge in the pound.

 

Anyhoos, hopefully we can agree Nissan staying and investing is a good thing.

[Finnaldo]

Just now, The Railway Man said:

Do you have any evidence for that or is just more speculation and hearsay to do what Bovril is saying above and try and throw something bad on another prediction gone awol from remain? If we had told them we were going for soft Brexit you would have seen a massive upsurge in the pound.

 

Anyhoos, hopefully we can agree Nissan staying and investing is a good thing.

 

I think both sides have to be cautious about this, I mean the implications of 'assurances' is something that needs to be understood before we truly celebrate but at the same time you can't call it a negative that 7,000 jobs are secured, it's a massive post-Brexit boost whatever your standing.

 

We just have to make sure in the brave new world that we don't want to be offering silly assurance packages that become just as restrictive as the EU was.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, The Railway Man said:

Do you have any evidence for that or is just more speculation and hearsay to do what Bovril is saying above and try and throw something bad on another prediction gone awol from remain? If we had told them we were going for soft Brexit you would have seen a massive upsurge in the pound.

 

Anyhoos, hopefully we can agree Nissan staying and investing is a good thing.

 

Nissan staying and investing is certainly a good thing for the NE - and probably for the nation in the short-term as it might quell some of the nervousness and uncertainty.

 

Whether it's a good thing for the UK long-term will depend on the terms, which are not being publicised. Here's some analysis: http://news.sky.com/story/nissan-investment-may-come-at-significant-cost-10634181

Sky quotes Reuters:  

"Britain has given Nissan a written commitment of extra support in the event that Brexit reduces the competitiveness of its Sunderland plant, in return for new production investments by the Japanese carmaker, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. In addition to unconditional investment aid, Britain pledged in a letter to offer further relief if the terms of Britain’s European Union exit ended up harming the plant’s performance, the source said".

 

If it's true that the Govt has promised Nissan lots of pound notes if their profitability is damaged, presumably other car makers will want similar support - and other industries potentially affected by Brexit. It would be ironic if a Tory government took us "back to the 70s" with Nissan as the new British Leyland, and the taxpayer subsidising plants rendered non-viable by the terms of trade with the EU. Of course, that's a "benefit" of Brexit - the UK will be able to subsidise British industry without fear of breaching EU competition law. Very much a Hard Left approach: get out of the EU and use tax receipts from Joe Public to subsidise uncompetitive British industries. Corbyn should be appaluding this move! 

 

[The Railway Man]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

If it's true that the Govt has promised Nissan lots of pound notes if their profitability is damaged, presumably other car makers will want similar support - and other industries potentially affected by Brexit. It would be ironic if a Tory government took us "back to the 70s" with Nissan as the new British Leyland, and the taxpayer subsidising plants rendered non-viable by the terms of trade with the EU. Of course, that's a "benefit" of Brexit - the UK will be able to subsidise British industry without fear of breaching EU competition law. Very much a Hard Left approach: get out of the EU and use tax receipts from Joe Public to subsidise uncompetitive British industries. Corbyn should be appaluding this move! 

Didn't MattP actually put that across as a benefit during the when he was talking about the benefits of a socialist Brexit? Someone did

[Buce]

23 hours ago, Webbo said:

Unless you believe in string theory. 

 

4 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

Fact-check: FALSE

 

I've just been through your profile and scanned all your posts from June, at no point do I see this prediction anywhere, what you do have instead is about 150 posts of you saying there is no problem at all with the EU and in virtually every single one you describe anyone voting to leave it as racist, xenophobic, bigoted etc.

 

You could argue people like you are one of the reasons why the country voted to leave the EU, reading it certainly riled me up again and removed any doubt I had about my vote.

 

Seriously?

 

You need to get a girlfriend..

[The Railway Man]

4 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

Seriously?

 

You need to get a girlfriend..

Takes 5 minutes since they updated it.

[Alf Bentley]

On 10/26/2016 at 10:08, MattP said:

My last post today as I'm a busy man, but please report back on the debate, I'm looking forward to reading it.

 

A report on the "EU Question Time" event at De Montfort Uni....

 

Guests (all former MEPs): Jose Gil Robles (Partido Popular, Spain); Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael, Ireland); Barbara Weiler (SPD, Germany) - so 2 centre-right, 1 centre-left

 

Comments (with nationality of speakers first)

- All: There is no desire to "punish" the UK for Brexit (though some irritation was evident), but a strong desire to protect the EU project, so the EU will strongly protect its own interests & future viability

- All: There WILL be an EU/UK Brexit deal within 2 years as it's in everyone's interests (wasn't convinced they were 100% confident, though)

- Ger/Sp: There will NOT be a compromise over free movement (v. single market); Ire: I've proposed an "associate" status for the UK (Ger/Sp looked dubious)

- All: UK could continue to benefit from aspects of the single market, but only if they paid cash into the coffers

- Ger/Sp: EU would NOT allow an independent Scotland direct entry to EU. They were adamant about this, quoting problems the EU had with divided Cyprus & ex-Yugoslavia;

Ire said it would be legal for Scotland or N. Ireland to join, but an audience member (an academic?) said it would be politically unacceptable & wouldn't happen....no guests disagreed (not good news for Sturgeon!)

- Ire: There will be no "hard border" in Ireland as neither London, nor Dublin nor Belfast want it & the EU won't intervene (Ger/Sp didn't disagree); maybe a few extra immigration/security checks between GB & Ire/NI - didn't answer re. Customs

- Ire: Hundreds of firms of London solicitors have registered in Dublin in recent months (anticipating relocation of banks/businesses?); Ger: "Frankfurt is open for business" (with a big grin)

- Sp: EU must reform its institutions & "we must double the EU budget" ()....in general, the speakers' mindsets seemed very EU-centred and unrealistic as to constraints on national govts & their likely funding for EU

- Ire: EU must change remit of European Central Bank to focus on employment/growth, not just inflation - and this will be easier without UK objections (this from a centre-right politician)

- Ger: Better EU social legislation will be possible without the UK (e.g. Working Time Directive, H&S at work, especially noise); in contrast, perceptions that the UK obstructs EU environmental legislation are false - it's the Poles who do that

- Sp: The UK will be missed in the field of animal welfare, where it has led the way in Europe

- Ire/All: A lot of praise for the role played by the Commission - particularly important for smaller nations or big nations would dominate via Council; likewise, in preparing law, as it has a "European mentality" compared to "national interests" promoted by Govt Ministers/PMs at Council

 

They announced that there'll be a similar event in a few weeks concerning the future of the USA - presumably timed to coincide with the Presidential election. I might try to get to that, too.

 

 

[Carl the Llama]

4 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

Fact-check: FALSE

 

I've just been through your profile and scanned all your posts from June, at no point do I see this prediction anywhere, what you do have instead is about 150 posts of you saying there is no problem at all with the EU and in virtually every single one you describe anyone voting to leave it as racist, xenophobic, bigoted etc.

 

You could argue people like you are one of the reasons why the country voted to leave the EU, reading it certainly riled me up again and removed any doubt I had about my vote.

Well no I didn't make that point in that precise manner on here, I presume because others had already made those points in one way or another and I'm loathe to clutter threads with parroting, preferring to voice my agreement by +1ing the relevant post and also probably because I had to spend so much time responding to people explaining why most of the stuff about migrants and borders etc was all bullshit or pointing out why I wasn't saying everyone who wants to vote leave is racist etc (so I suggest you brush up on your scan reading skills given your erroneous conclusions).  If you want to look up CCTV footage of me going about my personal life around that time you'll see me having numerous debates on the matter where I was unable to leave it up to the likes of Alf who frequently voiced how I saw things in much better detail than I could hope to and so had to clearly state my own opinions.  Indeed I alluded to it quite recently here:

On 13/10/2016 at 13:53, Carl the Llama said:

In a similar vein I know a Brexiter who had this annoying habit of speaking often and loudly of his big claims about how leaving would strengthening the economy and that there was absolutely no way there'd even be a decline in the pound, not even in the short term, making sure everyone within a mile could hear and generally being an arrogant twat shouting you down with the line of "I've studied economics" if you tried explaining to him that the pound would obviously fall in the short term at the very least with the uncertainty of the markets exacerbated by a vague leave stance.  I haven't heard him talking so boisterously about these issues of late.

In future I'll endeavour to make a note on here of my every thought and interaction in the outside world for the purposes of posterity.

[Alf Bentley]

24 minutes ago, The Railway Man said:

Didn't MattP actually put that across as a benefit during the when he was talking about the benefits of a socialist Brexit? Someone did

 

Are you accusing @MattP of being a Hard Left Corbynista? 

 

That sort of interventionist national state socialism has long been behind a lot of anti-EU sentiment on the Hard Left (e.g. Labour's Campaign Group). 

People like Corbyn have spent decades espousing that view (until very recently) - and Labour's 1983 policy was to leave the (then) EEC. 

I canvassed the 1983 election & an NF supporter said he'd be voting Labour because of that policy....he added that he'd like to see me deported to Ireland as I'm of Irish parentage. 

 

Hence some people wondering about Corbyn's apparent lack of commitment to the Remain cause & even which way he voted.

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Are you accusing @MattP of being a Hard Left Corbynista? 

 

That sort of interventionist national state socialism has long been behind a lot of anti-EU sentiment on the Hard Left (e.g. Labour's Campaign Group). 

People like Corbyn have spent decades espousing that view (until very recently) - and Labour's 1983 policy was to leave the (then) EEC. 

I canvassed the 1983 election & an NF supporter said he'd be voting Labour because of that policy....he added that he'd like to see me deported to Ireland as I'm of Irish parentage. 

 

Hence some people wondering about Corbyn's apparent lack of commitment to the Remain cause & even which way he voted.

I always said there was a good left wing base for leaving the EU, the ability of governments to nationalise things, not deport the irish

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I always said there was a good left wing base for leaving the EU, the ability of governments to nationalise things, not deport the irish

 

It was the dominant position of the Labour Left in the 70s and 80s.

I was dubious even in 1983 and have been critically pro-EU ever since. Mainly on the principle that the capitalist economy has become ever more international/global, so democratic politics needs to (partly) follow suit.

 

I suppose, in theory, you could have a Left-wing government that left the EU, subsidised non-viable industries, spent heavily on public services but kept corporation tax rates internationally competitive by putting Income Tax, VAT, Stamp Duty & Inheritance Tax through the roof......can't see it lasting long in power, though! 

 

My only reason for considering voting Leave was that a mismanaged EU might be even worse than a Tory UK. I decided not, in the end, but it still might happen. I'm pessimistic about Brexit Britain, but almost as pessimistic about the future of the EU.

[Webbo]

3 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

Can't really argue with that, does seem to be.....

Brexit news for Leavers:

IF BAD = "Too soon to tell, we haven't left yet", "Project Fear,
"You lost get over it", "Treason"

IF GOOD = " Brexit was a good idea, this proves it"

 

Brexit news for Remainers:

IF BAD = "We told you so." "Thick bastards, you've ****ed everything up" "Cancel Brexit" "RACISTS"

IF GOOD = "It's too soon to tell" "We haven't even left yet" 

There's a lot in what you're saying. In truth, although I'm optimistic, nobody knows for sure how it's going to turn out. It's just some of the remainers are so smug and self righteous I like to rub their noses in it..

[Webbo]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

 

Seriously?

 

You need to get a girlfriend..

I don't actually know what String theory is, it's just something I heard on Big Bang Theory.

[leicsmac]

Just now, Webbo said:

I don't actually know what String theory is, it's just something I heard on Big Bang Theory.

And there's no reason to be ashamed of knowledge regarding subatomic physics anyway, Webbo.

 

But TBBT was only any good for the first couple of seasons.

[Webbo]

[Barky]

4 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

Do you have any evidence for that or is just more speculation and hearsay to do what Bovril is saying above and try and throw something bad on another prediction gone awol from remain? If we had told them we were going for soft Brexit you would have seen a massive upsurge in the pound.

 

Anyhoos, hopefully we can agree Nissan staying and investing is a good thing.

It's a good thing at face value but it lends credence to the theory that there's no coherent nationwide brexit strategy in place. You can't go around making deals in isolation, there needs to be an overarching approach.

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

BREXIT = Putting the "Great" back in Britain.  

[The Doctor]

6 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

Do you have any evidence for that or is just more speculation and hearsay to do what Bovril is saying above and try and throw something bad on another prediction gone awol from remain? If we had told them we were going for soft Brexit you would have seen a massive upsurge in the pound.

 

Anyhoos, hopefully we can agree Nissan staying and investing is a good thing.

Not really doing what bovril said since I'm generally in favour of subsidising industry to shape our economy (hence why I've repeatedly said we should invest more into R&D). Yes, it is speculation but it's also the two most likely reasons. Nissan demanded danger money to stay, they're staying so either that danger money isn't needed, or it's been paid.

[Buce]

2 hours ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

BREXIT = Putting the "Great" back in Britain.  

 

DT: Putting the crap back in Foxestalk..

[Dr The Singh]

13 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

DT: Putting the crap back in Foxestalk..

[Dr The Singh]

2 hours ago, The Doctor said:

Not really doing what bovril said since I'm generally in favour of subsidising industry to shape our economy (hence why I've repeatedly said we should invest more into R&D). Yes, it is speculation but it's also the two most likely reasons. Nissan demanded danger money to stay, they're staying so either that danger money isn't needed, or it's been paid.

The hookers and coke were provided last week in skewness....all is good, cars will continue to be built