Brexit Discussion Thread.

[The Railway Man]

16 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Well no I didn't make that point in that precise manner on here, I presume because others had already made those points in one way or another and I'm loathe to clutter threads with parroting, preferring to voice my agreement by +1ing the relevant post and also probably because I had to spend so much time responding to people explaining why most of the stuff about migrants and borders etc was all bullshit or pointing out why I wasn't saying everyone who wants to vote leave is racist etc (so I suggest you brush up on your scan reading skills given your erroneous conclusions).  If you want to look up CCTV footage of me going about my personal life around that time you'll see me having numerous debates on the matter where I was unable to leave it up to the likes of Alf who frequently voiced how I saw things in much better detail than I could hope to and so had to clearly state my own opinions.  Indeed I alluded to it quite recently here:

 

In future I'll endeavour to make a note on here of my every thought and interaction in the outside world for the purposes of posterity.

Fair enough, I actually said the pound would drop as well but the economy would remain stable, said Boris would be stabbed in the back by Gove and May would be PM, also predicted the vote spot on at 52-48, didn't post it on here obviously but said it to all my friends and in th arguments I go around geting involved in, guess I'm just lucky.

 

I'll take your word for it you were arguing the points rather than just throwing insults, problem is when you click on a random page your posts don't really seem to bare this out, everyone is a "xenophobe" who hates Johnny Foreigner.

 

Don't compare yourself to Alf either, you are a Euro fantatic, you even claimed there is no need to change migration laws, Alf is someone I see as quite Eurosceptic and wants to question and hold the project to account, a reluctant remainer only as he saw the alternative as too much of a risk and probably worse. He put his points across very well in the debate thread and never just resorted to calling everyone racist who disagreed with him.

 

11 hours ago, The Doctor said:

Not really doing what bovril said since I'm generally in favour of subsidising industry to shape our economy (hence why I've repeatedly said we should invest more into R&D). Yes, it is speculation but it's also the two most likely reasons. Nissan demanded danger money to stay, they're staying so either that danger money isn't needed, or it's been paid.

We don't know the details, I can't believe anyone can see a negative in this, if it was this easy just to throw a bit of money at them why did everyone tell us they would be leaving the UK?

[davieG]

 

There was "no cheque book" involved in the assurances given to Nissan ahead of its decision to boost UK production, Business Secretary Greg Clark has said.

The carmaker said it would build two new models at its Sunderland plant following talks with the government.

Ministers have declined to confirm reports that a written promise was made to protect the company from any consequences of Brexit.

Labour said the government should set out exactly what was promised.

Speaking on BBC Question Time, Mr Clark indicated there had been no offer of financial compensation or state aid.

"There's no cheque book. I don't have a cheque book," he said.

"The important thing is that they know this is a country in which they can have confidence they can invest. That was the assurance and the understanding they had and they have invested their money."

[Alf Bentley]

33 minutes ago, davieG said:

 

There was "no cheque book" involved in the assurances given to Nissan ahead of its decision to boost UK production, Business Secretary Greg Clark has said.

The carmaker said it would build two new models at its Sunderland plant following talks with the government.

Ministers have declined to confirm reports that a written promise was made to protect the company from any consequences of Brexit.

Labour said the government should set out exactly what was promised.

Speaking on BBC Question Time, Mr Clark indicated there had been no offer of financial compensation or state aid.

"There's no cheque book. I don't have a cheque book," he said.

"The important thing is that they know this is a country in which they can have confidence they can invest. That was the assurance and the understanding they had and they have invested their money."

 

 

On Newsnight last night they seemed to have some inside info & did interesting analysis (probably available via I-Player).

 

The suggestion was:

- The Govt promised Nissan significant post-Brexit funding, if required, not specifically for losses due to Brexit but for Nissan's investment in vehicles using new technology (driver-less cars etc.). Nissan is making big commitments in this area. Unlike some other state subsidies, apparently such "new tech" funding would not breach rules of either WTO or single market 

- The analysis seemed to be that the UK would have to leave the Customs Union in order to make its own trade deals (which would add a lot of bureaucracy to trade). It would no longer be a full member of the Single Market, but would negotiate to keep elements of the Single Market (possibly avoiding tariffs?). The MEPs at the debate I attended also seemed to reckon that, although there'd be no compromise on free movement, the UK would be able to keep elements of the Single Market - but only if they paid some contributions to the EU (presumably less than before, but more than the Brexiteers would like).

 

Looks like the elements of a plan / compromise might be coming into view...

[SMX11]

From what I have read the goverment will opt for a complete cluster **** approach (unsurprisingly) and try to stay in customs union (which makes Liam Fox's job redundant).

 

If this is pursued then Peter Hitchens correct is in saying that we were half in and afterwards we will be half out. A liberal brexit appears doomed.

[Guest MattP]

19 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

A report on the "EU Question Time" event at De Montfort Uni....

 

Guests (all former MEPs): Jose Gil Robles (Partido Popular, Spain); Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael, Ireland); Barbara Weiler (SPD, Germany) - so 2 centre-right, 1 centre-left

 

Comments (with nationality of speakers first)

- All: There is no desire to "punish" the UK for Brexit (though some irritation was evident), but a strong desire to protect the EU project, so the EU will strongly protect its own interests & future viability

- All: There WILL be an EU/UK Brexit deal within 2 years as it's in everyone's interests (wasn't convinced they were 100% confident, though)

- Ger/Sp: There will NOT be a compromise over free movement (v. single market); Ire: I've proposed an "associate" status for the UK (Ger/Sp looked dubious)

- All: UK could continue to benefit from aspects of the single market, but only if they paid cash into the coffers

- Ger/Sp: EU would NOT allow an independent Scotland direct entry to EU. They were adamant about this, quoting problems the EU had with divided Cyprus & ex-Yugoslavia;

Ire said it would be legal for Scotland or N. Ireland to join, but an audience member (an academic?) said it would be politically unacceptable & wouldn't happen....no guests disagreed (not good news for Sturgeon!)

- Ire: There will be no "hard border" in Ireland as neither London, nor Dublin nor Belfast want it & the EU won't intervene (Ger/Sp didn't disagree); maybe a few extra immigration/security checks between GB & Ire/NI - didn't answer re. Customs

- Ire: Hundreds of firms of London solicitors have registered in Dublin in recent months (anticipating relocation of banks/businesses?); Ger: "Frankfurt is open for business" (with a big grin)

- Sp: EU must reform its institutions & "we must double the EU budget" ()....in general, the speakers' mindsets seemed very EU-centred and unrealistic as to constraints on national govts & their likely funding for EU

- Ire: EU must change remit of European Central Bank to focus on employment/growth, not just inflation - and this will be easier without UK objections (this from a centre-right politician)

- Ger: Better EU social legislation will be possible without the UK (e.g. Working Time Directive, H&S at work, especially noise); in contrast, perceptions that the UK obstructs EU environmental legislation are false - it's the Poles who do that

- Sp: The UK will be missed in the field of animal welfare, where it has led the way in Europe

- Ire/All: A lot of praise for the role played by the Commission - particularly important for smaller nations or big nations would dominate via Council; likewise, in preparing law, as it has a "European mentality" compared to "national interests" promoted by Govt Ministers/PMs at Council

 

They announced that there'll be a similar event in a few weeks concerning the future of the USA - presumably timed to coincide with the Presidential election. I might try to get to that, too.

 

 

Thanks for that, an interesting read.
 

How optimistic are you about the future of the European Union after listening to the debate? Do you think it's capable of the reforms it needs to save itself and work for everybody?

 

19 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Are you accusing @MattP of being a Hard Left Corbynista? 

 

That sort of interventionist national state socialism has long been behind a lot of anti-EU sentiment on the Hard Left (e.g. Labour's Campaign Group). 

People like Corbyn have spent decades espousing that view (until very recently) - and Labour's 1983 policy was to leave the (then) EEC. 

I canvassed the 1983 election & an NF supporter said he'd be voting Labour because of that policy....he added that he'd like to see me deported to Ireland as I'm of Irish parentage. 

 

Hence some people wondering about Corbyn's apparent lack of commitment to the Remain cause & even which way he voted.

I was accused of being a lilly-livered liberal by someone in the pub last week for saying we should accept genuine child refugees, so I'm on the road to being a fully fledged Corbynista, the whole binary "You're either with us or you are the total opposite" isn't just the retort of the new influx of the Labour party.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

49 minutes ago, SMX11 said:

From what I have read the goverment will opt for a complete cluster **** approach (unsurprisingly) and try to stay in customs union (which makes Liam Fox's job redundant).

 

If this is pursued then Peter Hitchens correct is in saying that we were half in and afterwards we will be half out. A liberal brexit appears doomed.

 

If that's true, Fox would indeed be redundant. As I understand it, if you're in the EU Customs Union, all external trade treaties have to be negotiated via the EU....so the UK would presumably end up committed to EU-negotiated treaties without having any say over them! That sounds crazy from any perspective - and would justify Hitchens' comment.

 

The "expert" on Newsnight had different expectations. He thought the plan was to leave the Customs Union. This could cause major bureaucratic complications but would allow the UK to negotiate its own external trade deals (eventually).

He seemed to expect us to leave the Single Market, too, but to remain in certain selective elements of that (for which we'd probably have to pay the EU).... All will become clear eventually, I suppose. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

How optimistic are you about the future of the European Union after listening to the debate? Do you think it's capable of the reforms it needs to save itself and work for everybody?

Don't need to answer that, I've just seen the other post you made saying you are almost as pessimistic about a future inside the EU as you are about Brexit Britain.

 

Did anyone see the elexction results in Lithuania this week? (Of course you didn't, why would you?) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_parliamentary_election,_2016 - Probably the first time an "anti-emigration" party has won an election, they went from 1 to 54 seats in the space of four years.

 

I've long said (and I actually find post on here CTL ) it was only a matter of time before the people in these countries were going to sick of losing the young and most educated people to the richer Western nations (700,000 in twenty years out of a population that was just over 3.6million.), how the EU deals with this issue is going to be very crucial if it gets bigger, personally I think unless they rethink the belief of freedom of movement, it is doomed to fail.

 

[Dr The Singh]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Don't need to answer that, I've just seen the other post you made saying you are almost as pessimistic about a future inside the EU as you are about Brexit Britain.

 

Did anyone see the elexction results in Lithuania this week? (Of course you didn't, why would you?) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_parliamentary_election,_2016 - Probably the first time an "anti-emigration" party has won an election, they went from 1 to 54 seats in the space of four years.

 

I've long said (and I actually find post on here CTL ) it was only a matter of time before the people in these countries were going to sick of losing the young and most educated people to the richer Western nations (700,000 in twenty years out of a population that was just over 3.6million.), how the EU deals with this issue is going to be very crucial if it gets bigger, personally I think unless they rethink the belief of freedom of movement, it is doomed to fail.

 

Do fook sake, you going mad, replying to your own post and that...

[Barky]

Houses must be cheap as chips in Lithuania

[Guest MattP]

27 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

Do fook sake, you going mad, replying to your own post and that...

I've been going mad for years, the fact I thought anyone would want to talk about the Lithuanian elections shows that.

[Dr The Singh]

Just now, MattP said:

I've been going mad for years, the fact I thought anyone would want to talk about the Lithuanian elections shows that.

.  Personally I think you stumbled upon it, from searching Lithuanian porn

[Alf Bentley]

On 10/28/2016 at 11:51, MattP said:

 

How optimistic are you about the future of the European Union after listening to the debate? Do you think it's capable of the reforms it needs to save itself and work for everybody?

 

I was accused of being a lilly-livered liberal by someone in the pub last week for saying we should accept genuine child refugees, so I'm on the road to being a fully fledged Corbynista, the whole binary "You're either with us or you are the total opposite" isn't just the retort of the new influx of the Labour party.

 

I don't know enough about EU politics to be able to assess whether it is capable of major reform.

 

Some comments at the debate were encouraging: e.g. recognition that the European Central Bank needs to make growth/employment a priority as well as inflation, as EU growth is sluggish and unemployment still bad in the Mediterranean countries.

That comment about doubling the EU budget was less encouraging as that seems completely unrealistic given Europe-wide pressures on national government finances since the slow recovery from the crash. Reforming the restrictive rules of EMU seems important, too. I don't know whether such reforms would require new treaties, though.... Given the number of EU members and level of Euroscepticism in some countries, that could be difficult to achieve, if it is required.

 

Barring some new catastrophe, I assume that the centre-right will be running France and Germany after their 2017 elections, not the Eurosceptic Far Right. But if major reform doesn't happen, the European economy and living standards don't improve, and there are further migration crises, I can only imagine further Eurosceptic tension in future..... I hope they do manage to reform the EU. A thriving EU is better for the UK, even if we're no longer in it.

 

So you're a "lily-livered liberal"?!  Join the club, I suppose, seeing as I'm supposedly a "closet Tory" or "Blairite scum" according to Corbynista memes (despite drifting away from Labour during the Blair era).

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

On ‎27‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 22:05, Buce said:

 

DT: Putting the crap back in Foxestalk..

Oh gee-wiz!

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

On ‎13‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 11:23, Jon the Hat said:

**** it.  Go hard or go home.  Much better to chuck it all in, pay the poxy tariffs, and have our freedom to trade globally in goods, services and talent.

Oh yes! The words of a wise man.

[GaelicFox]

There is more chance if WW3 breaking out than a Brexit , Russian Cold War politics is going to bury Brexit 

 

we wont be leaving the EU in my lifetime 

[Carl the Llama]

39 minutes ago, GaelicFox said:

There is more chance if WW3 breaking out than a Brexit , Russian Cold War politics is going to bury Brexit 

 

we wont be leaving the EU in my lifetime 

Wut.

[GaelicFox]

8 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Wut.

The US  /NATO will be plunged into a serious false or real conflict with Russia in the gulf over the next few years , once Clinton is elected 

 

the national interests will be to maintain the status quo , with impending war or the threat of impending war Brexit will be shelved in the interest of national security ! 

 

The yanks dont want it , the banks don't want it , May doesn't want it and a little bit of Cold War politics is exactly what they are all looking for to help shelve Brexit ! 

 

There will be no Brexit 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

22 hours ago, GaelicFox said:

There is more chance if WW3 breaking out than a Brexit , Russian Cold War politics is going to bury Brexit 

 

we wont be leaving the EU in my lifetime 

I hate to say this, but what a load of old tosh!

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

21 hours ago, GaelicFox said:

The US  /NATO will be plunged into a serious false or real conflict with Russia in the gulf over the next few years , once Clinton is elected 

 

the national interests will be to maintain the status quo , with impending war or the threat of impending war Brexit will be shelved in the interest of national security ! 

 

The yanks dont want it , the banks don't want it , May doesn't want it and a little bit of Cold War politics is exactly what they are all looking for to help shelve Brexit ! 

 

There will be no Brexit 

I don't know what you are drinking, but I would slow down if I was you. 

[GaelicFox]

21 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

I don't know what you are drinking, but I would slow down if I was you. 

I was and still am fcuked  

 

but hey hey there will be NO Brexit 

 

 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

19 hours ago, GaelicFox said:

I was and still am fcuked  

 

but hey hey there will be NO Brexit 

 

 

Time will tell.

[Guest MattP]

On 10/30/2016 at 18:39, GaelicFox said:

I was and still am fcuked  

 

but hey hey there will be NO Brexit

Russia is irrelevent, we aren't leaving NATO. Putin has no respect for the EU anyway, he had no problem annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine right on the doorstep of it.

 

Of course there will be a Brexit, the question is whether they give us a fake Brexit where we stay inside the single market and all still subject to laws and regulations of those whom we shouldn't be, if there is no Brexit, Theresa May can wave goodbye to her position until there is, the first hint of it and she'll be usurped by her backbenchers in a more brutal way than Thatcher was.

 

#Rees-MoggforPM

 

[GaelicFox]

34 minutes ago, MattP said:

Russia is irrelevent, we aren't leaving NATO. Putin has no respect for the EU anyway, he had no problem annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine right on the doorstep of it.

 

Of course there will be a Brexit, the question is whether they give us a fake Brexit where we stay inside the single market and all still subject to laws and regulations of those whom we shouldn't be, if there is no Brexit, Theresa May can wave goodbye to her position until there is, the first hint of it and she'll be usurped by her backbenchers in a more brutal way than Thatcher was.

 

#Rees-MoggforPM

 

Ultimately the CIA and American banks dont need or want a Brexit , it will either be a washed down version or a complete shelving , but I expect global events to takeover the timetable for Brexit 

[Nick]

On 28 October 2016 at 11:51, MattP said:

 

 

I was accused of being a lilly-livered liberal by someone in the pub last week for saying we should accept genuine child refugees, so I'm on the road to being a fully fledged Corbynista, the whole binary "You're either with us or you are the total opposite" isn't just the retort of the new influx of the Labour party.

 

 

 

Wow - your local sounds like a tavern I mistakenly walked into on the Westgate Rd in Newcastle in my early 20's!

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Swan Lesta said:

Wow - your local sounds like a tavern I mistakenly walked into on the Westgate Rd in Newcastle in my early 20's!

It was actually in the Queen of Bradgate in town, and the comment was from a bearded hipster who I would have pigeonholed as a Green party member.

There used to be a time you could usually tell a political opinion on a persons appearance, not anymore!