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Brexit Discussion Thread.

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6 minutes ago, davieG said:

David Davis: UK may pay for access to EU single market

41 minutes ago

 

From the sectionUK Politics

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The UK would consider making payments to the EU after it leaves the bloc to secure the best possible access to the EU single market, Brexit Secretary David Davis has said.

Mr Davis told MPs the "major criterion" was getting the best access for goods and services to the European market.

"And if that is included... then of course we would consider it."

He said reports Boris Johnson backed freedom of movement were "at odds" with what he knew of Mr Johnson's views.

According to Sky News the foreign secretary privately told four EU ambassadors he backed free movement.

Brexit: All you need to know

What are the UK's Brexit options?

But Mr Davis said: "What I've seen.. strikes me completely at odds with what I know about my right honourable friend's approach to this matter.

"He believes very clearly - and he made this very clear in the Leave campaign because he was a much more major part of it than I was. - that some immigration is useful. We all agree on that.

"That's not the same as thinking free movement of people as it now stands is a good idea. It's a problem."

During his regular session facing MPs in the Commons, Mr Davis was asked a number of questions about the shape of the future Brexit deal, including one from Labour MP Wayne David, who said: "Will the government consider making any contribution in any shape or form for access to the single market?"

Mr Davis replied: "The major criterion here is that we get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market - and if that is included in what you are talking about, then of course we will consider it."

Hilary Benn, the Labour chairman of the Commons Brexit Committee, urged the government to publish details of its negotiating plans, claiming MPs were "fed up" at the lack of detail.

Mr Davis argued that "the probable success of the negotiations depend very greatly on us being able to manage the information and keep what needs to be secret until the last minute secret".

He also confirmed that Article 50, which sparks the formal legal process for leaving the EU, will be triggered by 31 March, 2017.

the question is will when we leave the EU will we be able to control immigration and have those controls on our terms and not the EU's. it is in both parties interests to come up with an agreement and their needs to be compromise on both sides at the moment everything seems so entrenched and no one wants to be the first to back down but we need access to the single market and the government also needs to show it is doing something to cut net migration. i am sure there will be an agreement but at the moment both sides cannot show they are backing down or it will look like a weakness to there people and supporters

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6 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

the question is will when we leave the EU will we be able to control immigration and have those controls on our terms and not the EU's. it is in both parties interests to come up with an agreement and their needs to be compromise on both sides at the moment everything seems so entrenched and no one wants to be the first to back down but we need access to the single market and the government also needs to show it is doing something to cut net migration. i am sure there will be an agreement but at the moment both sides cannot show they are backing down or it will look like a weakness to there people and supporters

The simple solution would be an agreement to accept the people that can prove they have a job already, instead of "everyone". 

 

From today's worrying figures it shows that would wipe off a fair chunk of migration, without adversely effecting businesses. 

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The UK will have to reach a Brexit deal by October 2018, according to the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit.

Michel Barnier told reporters that "time will be short" for negotiations because the proposed deal needed to be ratified as part of the two year process set to be triggered in March.

He said a taskforce of 30 people had been set up to make sure the EU would "be ready" when Article 50 was called.

He warned against "cherry picking" on issues such as the single market.

Speaking at the press conference in Brussels, Mr Barnier said: "Time will be short. It is clear the period for actual negotiations will be shorter than two years.

"At the beginning, the two years included the time for the council to set guidelines and to authorise negotiations. At the end, the agreement must of course be approved by the Council and European Parliament. Finally the UK will have to approve the agreement - all within the two year period.

"All in all there will be less than 18 months to negotiate. That is short. Should the UK notify by the end of March as Prime Minister Theresa May said she would, it is safe to say negotiations could start a few weeks later and an article 50 reached by Oct 2018."

'Four main ideas'

Mr Barnier was appointed to the post of chief Brexit negotiator on 1 October this year by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said he "wanted an experienced politician for this difficult job".

The chief negotiator said he had spent time speaking with members from all European states and the Brexit negotiations had been informed by four main principles.

These included the "determination for unity" and a pledge to not start negotiations before being notified of Article 50.

But he added: "Being a member of EU comes with rights and benefits. Third countries (non members as the UK will be after Brexit) can never have the same rights and benefits since they are not subject to the same obligations.

"The single market and its four freedoms (which includes freedom of movement) are indivisible. Cherry picking is not an option."

'Keep calm and negotiate'

Mr Barnier said he "didn't like to speculate very much" on what the future relationship between the EU and the UK would be, but it was time to "keep calm and negotiate".

"The sooner, the better," he added. "We all have a common interest in not prolonging the lack of certainty and we for our part need to concentrate on the European agenda on this new page that we will be writing in the history in the construction of the EU.

"There will be rebalancing but my conviction remains the same. Europe has to be the bedrock on which European citizens can lean in order to push ahead and construct the EU further for their safety, security, defence and prosperity."

"It is much better to show solidarity than to stand alone."

A former EU commissioner, Mr Barnier led the EU's banking reforms and was dubbed "the most dangerous man in Europe" by some in the financial services industry.

But after he championed capping bankers bonuses, he won respect as a tough but even-handed negotiator.

Mr Barnier has refused to take part in any pre-negotiations before Article 50 is triggered, but he did meet Brexit Secretary David Davis for coffee last month.

Speaking in November in Brussels, he said: "Don't ask me to tell you what will be at the end of the road, we haven't begun to walk yet."

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UK industrial production falls at worst rate in four years

Surprise 1.3% drop in October dents hopes economy will end year on a high

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/uk-industrial-production-falls-0ctober-economy

 

So much for the fall in pound helping. This is while we are in the EU; help us all when we leave.

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Very interesting - and worrying - report on Newsnight last night (13:40-21:00 at http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08509k3/newsnight-07122016)

Well worth watching as some proper research has clearly gone into this report - and it gives proper info on what other cities like Paris are doing to woo big players in the City and new operators from China etc.

 

It sounds as if a lot of big finance companies are now actively planning to leave the City of London, unless there are early signs that they'll be able to trade as before within the EU.

Given the comments by the Govt - and by other Tories like Letwin (see @Webbo's link above) - and the responses from the EU, that seems highly unlikely.

 

If the UK wants to pull out of the single market and to do its own trade deals outside the customs union, effectively operating as a rival to the EU, why would the EU offer a generous deal over the City's access to EU markets?

This is massive for the UK economy/society, as finance is one of our highest-earning sectors, employing a lot of people on high pay - and contributes a large chunk of our tax revenues. If we lose that, how will we fund our struggling public services?

 

A fairly large bloke in a union jack waistcoat has just walked into a pub, shouting "Come on, then! I'll take you all on!".

His 27 former mates at the bar, some big and some small, have all turned round, looked at him and replied: "You fvcking what, mate?!"  

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21 minutes ago, Webbo said:

You've been waiting a long time to post some bad news haven't you Steven? lol

 

I notice that all the good news that's happened since your last post in this thread has past you by.

Not at all. More that Brexiteers have been loud and proud in saying that the falling pound will help the manufacturing sector whilst this is clearly not the case. I wonder what else they claimed would happen is also "economical with the truth". :unsure: :whistle:

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3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Very interesting - and worrying - report on Newsnight last night (13:40-20:00 at http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08509k3/newsnight-07122016)

Well worth watching as some proper research has clearly gone into this report - and it gives proper info on what other cities like Paris are doing to woo big players in the City and new operators from China etc.

 

It sounds as if a lot of big finance companies are now actively planning to leave the City of London, unless there are early signs that they'll be able to trade as before within the EU.

Given the comments by the Govt - and by other Tories like Letwin (see @Webbo's link above) - and the responses from the EU, that seems highly unlikely.

 

If the UK wants to pull out of the single market and to do its own trade deals outside the customs union, effectively operating as a rival to the EU, why would the EU offer a generous deal over the City's access to EU markets?

This is massive for the UK economy/society, as finance is one of our highest-earning sectors, employing a lot of people on high pay - and contributes a large chunk of our tax revenues. If we lose that, how will we fund our struggling public services?

 

A fairly large bloke in a union jack waistcoat has just walked into a pub, shouting "Come on, then! I'll take you all on!".

His 27 former mates at the bar, some big and some small, have all turned round, looked at him and replied: "You fvcking what, mate?!"  T

Ha Ha very good Alf.

How about another version.

 

The union jack waist coated gentlemen was an extremely generous chap always buying the 27 regulars at the pub a pint even though they never returned the favour, what was he doing wrong? he even had an open invitation for all their friends to visit his house which they did but they never even brought a bottle of wine around. He started to wonder if all they were after was his money so he asked all of his friends to tell him if he was being a fool and the majority said yes. He soon realised that the only option was to not frequent the pub so he could afford to buy all the things he needed in his home.

 

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3 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Ha Ha very good Alf.

How about another version.

 

The union jack waist coated gentlemen was an extremely generous chap always buying the 27 regulars at the pub a pint even though they never returned the favour, what was he doing wrong? he even had an open invitation for all their friends to visit his house which they did but they never even brought a bottle of wine around. He started to wonder if all they were after was his money so he asked all of his friends to tell him if he was being a fool and the majority said yes. He soon realised that the only option was to not frequent the pub so he could afford to buy all the things he needed in his home.

 

lollollol

Poor little Union Jack waistcoat man is clearly in the early stages of dementia and has completely forgotten all the times his 27 pals were kind enough to give him special dispensation from having to contribute in any way to some of their many nights out.

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1 hour ago, Steven said:

UK industrial production falls at worst rate in four years

Surprise 1.3% drop in October dents hopes economy will end year on a high

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/uk-industrial-production-falls-0ctober-economy

 

So much for the fall in pound helping. This is while we are in the EU; help us all when we leave.

One of the fall’s main drivers was a 10.8% decline in oil and gas extraction resulting from a temporary shutdown in the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea.

 

Damn brexit. Shutting down them oilfields. lol

 

Anyone care to explain why we had a production drop the same time last year without brexit?

 

... You mean production goes up and down because of many factors? 

 

Fvck it. Blame brexit. lol 

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1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

One of the fall’s main drivers was a 10.8% decline in oil and gas extraction resulting from a temporary shutdown in the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea.

 

Damn brexit. Shutting down them oilfields. lol

 

Anyone care to explain why we had a production drop the same time last year without brexit?

 

... You mean production goes up and down because of many factors? 

 

Fvck it. Blame brexit. lol 

Quote

A breakdown of the figures also showed that manufacturing output – the largest part of industrial production – also fell unexpectedly, by 0.9% in October

 

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The EU will definitely try to steal financial services from us and if they succeed we are properly screwed. Id like to think the government are prepared for that, but are they? They all seem more concerned by their own careers than anything else.

 

Big output declines in manufacturing and industry are also bad news. We thought the crash in the pound might save us, but maybe it won't afterall.

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39 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Ha Ha very good Alf.

How about another version.

 

The union jack waist coated gentlemen was an extremely generous chap always buying the 27 regulars at the pub a pint even though they never returned the favour, what was he doing wrong? he even had an open invitation for all their friends to visit his house which they did but they never even brought a bottle of wine around. He started to wonder if all they were after was his money so he asked all of his friends to tell him if he was being a fool and the majority said yes. He soon realised that the only option was to not frequent the pub so he could afford to buy all the things he needed in his home.

 

 

:D

 

It's true that Union Jack Man used to buy more pints than most of the regulars - apart from Lederhosen Fritz, who was even more generous. Though Union Jack Man grumbled a bit, his 27 mates thought it was fair enough. Apart from Fritz, Union Jack Man was one of the richest blokes in the pub - and had become a regular later than François, who did get a bit too much cash to farm his allotment.  However, Union Jack Man did very nicely out of everyone taking part in his City gambling syndicate, and made heaps more cash out of trading goods with his 27 mates via their stalls on the market.

 

Now, Union Jack Man will save cash on the pints he used to buy his mates. However, it looks as if earnings from his gambling syndicate might deteriorate badly. François is one of several former mates keen to take the syndicate over. His former mates will still trade market goods with him, but on terms much poorer than before, poorer than they offer one another and will demand he fills in lots of forms. Union Jack Man is confident that he'll be able to make new mates in other pubs who'll help him make megabucks. But the people running the sushi bar don't seem very interested, the folk running the curry house and the Chinese take-away have been actively taking the piss out of him - and Big Don who has taken over the Yankee Burger Bar is a complete nutter, a self-centred loose cannon. Then there's the Polish family he rented his spare room to. They've been very helpful doing DIY around the home, looking after his old Mum and babysitting while he's out making money. That's all very well, but he wants rid of them. But it will cause a scene in front of the neighbours if he evicts them. Then again, he's promised his family that his house will be reserved for people in union jack waistcoats. What a pickle!

 

Seriously, you and I will never agree about the EU. I see it as flawed but very valuable, particularly with the capitalist economy largely gone global. You obviously disagree and think we're better out. It's worth watching that Newsnight clip that I posted, though. There's all sorts of speculation and propaganda on all sides, but that report is a seriously researched bit of high-quality journalism....and what it reveals is very worrying. If we opt for the sort of Hard Brexit now advocated by the likes of May and Letwin, I seriously believe that we could ruin this country for the rest of my lifetime and half of my daughter's - it's that serious. I hope that some of the recent comments from the Tories are posturing to facilitate a compromise on more beneficial terms. 

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pretty much all the major banks are preparing to relocate to Paris who are disgustingly trying to entice them. everyone just wants to know how brexit works out first and they don't want to take any chances.the money men are not usually wrong sometimes they are I know but it is still worrying!

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21 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

pretty much all the major banks are preparing to relocate to Paris who are disgustingly trying to entice them. everyone just wants to know how brexit works out first and they don't want to take any chances.the money men are not usually wrong sometimes they are I know but it is still worrying!

.... 

 

No. 

 

They are planning on moving PARTS of businesses to European countries. The head offices and main trade hubs would remain in the UK. Banks aren't going to move their whole bank to a country that has much higher taxes. 

 

Just like European businesses will set up subsidiarys in the UK post brexit. 

 

Don't eat up all this scaremongering. Seriously, it's just making things worse. :rolleyes:

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We are way to reliant on the financial services sector in this country, in the medium and long term it may not be such a terrible thing if the city becomes less influential on both our economy and our politics. It wasn't that long ago we were ready to string bankers, speculators and hedge fund managers from the nearest lamppost, now the same people are panicking that they'll move some where else.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

We are way to reliant on the financial services sector in this country, in the medium and long term it may not be such a terrible thing if the city becomes less influential on both our economy and our politics. It wasn't that long ago we were ready to string bankers, speculators and hedge fund managers from the nearest lamppost, now the same people are panicking that they'll move some where else.  

 

 

What else are we going to do? Knit socks? Financial services is what we do well. If we lose it we're ****ed. Simple as that.

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7 minutes ago, Barky said:

What else are we going to do? Knit socks? Financial services is what we do well. If we lose it we're ****ed. Simple as that.

We're Leicesterians, knitting socks got us by for several centuries actually. The sock knitting industry went under and guess what happened? The economy diversified, we found other jobs, we survived.

 

We're not going to lose financial services anyway. Don't panic!  

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6 hours ago, Barky said:

The EU will definitely try to steal financial services from us and if they succeed we are properly screwed. Id like to think the government are prepared for that, but are they? They all seem more concerned by their own careers than anything else.

 

Big output declines in manufacturing and industry are also bad news. We thought the crash in the pound might save us, but maybe it won't afterall.

Pretty sure manufacturing was stagnant or falling well before EU vote. It is the regulatory and tax environment we have more than anything else.

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