Brexit Discussion Thread.

[davieG]

Talking of which....

 

Almost half of UK textile manufacturers say business is better than last year.

A survey by Make it British, an organisation which specialises in promoting British-made brands, found 45 per cent of textiles companies believe they are better positioned than a year ago.

 

 

Kate Hills, right, founder and chief executive of Make it British, said: "While the fashion manufacturing industry in the UK faces many challenges in the current economic climate, the Make it British survey shows that business is booming with many manufacturers reporting increases in production of 25 per cent to 50 per cent compared to 2015.

"Of the 95 UK textile manufacturers taking part in the survey, 30 per cent said they were receiving more enquiries now than prior to the EU referendum, but that they were being hit by rising costs for raw materials, many of which are imported from the EU. Around half said finding skilled staff was the biggest barrier to further growth while 39 per cent blamed lack of support from Government."

Read more at http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/business-looking-better-for-textiles-manufacturers/story-29965806-detail/story.html#ltqYIGmSVMqMerKP.99
Read more at http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/business-looking-better-for-textiles-manufacturers/story-29965806-detail/story.html#ltqYIGmSVMqMerKP.99

[Barky]

7 minutes ago, SMX11 said:

Pretty sure manufacturing was stagnant or falling well before EU vote. It is the regulatory and tax environment we have more than anything else.

I think more than anything else it's the fact that our labour is much more expensive than it is in say china. Some thought the fall in the pound would make the uk a more attractive place to do manufacturing, and it's way too early to say anything for sure, but we're now looking at quite a large drop in output which is a cause for some concern.

[Barky]

51 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

We're Leicesterians, knitting socks got us by for several centuries actually. The sock knitting industry went under and guess what happened? The economy diversified, we found other jobs, we survived.

 

We're not going to lose financial services anyway. Don't panic!  

I know, that's why I used that as an example. 

 

If if we lose financial services we'll have no choice but to do other things but I think we'd do extremely well to find any replacement that's anywhere near as valuable. As an industry it provides by far the highest paid jobs and tax revenues and we're reliant on it to maintain our status as a wealthy country. 

[Webbo]

9 minutes ago, Barky said:

I know, that's why I used that as an example. 

 

If if we lose financial services we'll have no choice but to do other things but I think we'd do extremely well to find any replacement that's anywhere near as valuable. As an industry it provides by far the highest paid jobs and tax revenues and we're reliant on it to maintain our status as a wealthy country. 

We won't lose financial services, we might lose a small percentage but that's far from certain.

[Barky]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We won't lose financial services, we might lose a small percentage but that's far from certain.

Hope you're right. If we're smart about it there must be a way to leverage brexit to make it bigger and better in the uk, but that would require the government to be really on the ball. My fear is that they're too preoccupied by populist issues like immigration and managing their own careers, and we might find that Europe turns out to have had their eyes on the prize the whole time and robs us of our strongest asset. They'll try, make no mistake about that.

[Webbo]

A huge portion of the financial transactions are with non EU countries so it shouldn't affect them. 

 

I'd have thought if our banks etc had to set up an office in the EU Eire would be a better bet than than France. Same time zone and doesn't suffer from the over regulation that so much of the continent insist on.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

We are way to reliant on the financial services sector in this country, in the medium and long term it may not be such a terrible thing if the city becomes less influential on both our economy and our politics. It wasn't that long ago we were ready to string bankers, speculators and hedge fund managers from the nearest lamppost, now the same people are panicking that they'll move some where else.  

 

 

 

People were ready to string bankers up for the economic chaos caused by their greedy irresponsibility, for which inadequate regulation was partly to blame.

Doesn't mean we'd want a large proportion of the financial sector to vanish!

 

Yes, we are too reliant on financial services. The solution is to try to diversify and build up other sectors, not to shrug and accept the loss of lots of jobs, income and tax revenues from financial services.

In footballing terms, the equivalent to your argument is: LCFC were too reliant on Vardy, Kante & Mahrez last season, so we should have got rid of them. It would have been better in the medium/long-term. 

[Alf Bentley]

4 hours ago, Innovindil said:

.... 

 

No. 

 

They are planning on moving PARTS of businesses to European countries. The head offices and main trade hubs would remain in the UK. Banks aren't going to move their whole bank to a country that has much higher taxes. 

 

Just like European businesses will set up subsidiarys in the UK post brexit. 

 

Don't eat up all this scaremongering. Seriously, it's just making things worse. 

 

I'm sure what you say is right. Banks, the stock market and all the multitude of traders and professionals making up the financial sector aren't all going to bugger off to Paris or elsewhere.

But it does sound very much as if large chunks of the City WILL go elsewhere if we have a Hard Brexit.

 

What proportion? Nobody knows at this stage, certainly not me. But the loss of a significant proportion of the financial sector, with its profitably companies and highly-paid staff, would have a massive impact on our economy.

The financial sector makes a major contribution to our national income and to our tax revenues.

 

We already have a massive debt and deficit. Living standards are squeezed for most people. Many public services are already falling apart.

If we lost a large chunk of tax revenue from the City, we'd have to (a) further increase the debt/deficit; or (b) further slash those creaking public services; or (c) increase taxes on Joe Public. Great!

Then, of course, there are a lot of other businesses and individuals who depend indirectly on the financial sector for their jobs/income: lawyers who handle contracts, car dealers who sell cars to City traders, shops/restaurants/cleaners etc. etc.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Innovindil said:

McDonald's is to move its non-US tax base from Luxembourg to the UK, the company has said.

The new holding company will pay UK tax on the royalties the firm receives outside the US. 

God damnit brexit! Stop driving these businesses away!

Wait... 

 

 

Here's an explanation for this move by McDonald's: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38255087

 

So, they're basically moving here because they'll find it easier to avoid tax, will pay lower corporation tax and will find it cheaper to send dividends out of the country to rich beneficiaries overseas. 

So, I wonder who'll be stepping up to the plate to pay more tax or accept crappier public services to compensate for all this tax avoidance by this super-rich global corporation? Us lot, of course!

 

The UK now has the moral values of a cesspit - a cesspit run to benefit greedy foreign spivs.

 

There's our future plan for post-Brexit UK: shaft British society to benefit rich global corporations while undercutting our European neighbours on social standards, We should be ashamed of ourselves.

[GazzinderFox]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

People were ready to string bankers up for the economic chaos caused by their greedy irresponsibility, for which inadequate regulation was partly to blame.

Doesn't mean we'd want a large proportion of the financial sector to vanish!

 

Yes, we are too reliant on financial services. The solution is to try to diversify and build up other sectors, not to shrug and accept the loss of lots of jobs, income and tax revenues from financial services.

In footballing terms, the equivalent to your argument is: LCFC were too reliant on Vardy, Kante & Mahrez last season, so we should have got rid of them. It would have been better in the medium/long-term. 

I'm not saying that we should get rid of it at all - in the short term it would be a very painful blow to the economy.

 

I can shrug it off because I don't think it's going to happen. BUT... if it did happen it would mean in the longer term we would have a more diverse economy with more of the country's top graduates going into different industries instead of looking to get straight into the city to make a quick buck - the sciences in particular would benefit. The UK would also be less vulnerable to the kind of economic crisis we have seen over the last 8 years.

 

To take up your football metaphor we need to sell Kante and use that spare capacity to strengthen the squad in two, three or four other areas.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

I'm not saying that we should get rid of it at all - in the short term it would be a very painful blow to the economy.

 

I can shrug it off because I don't think it's going to happen. BUT... if it did happen it would mean in the longer term we would have a more diverse economy with more of the country's top graduates going into different industries instead of looking to get straight into the city to make a quick buck - the sciences in particular would benefit. The UK would also be less vulnerable to the kind of economic crisis we have seen over the last 8 years.

 

To take up your football metaphor we need to sell Kante and use that spare capacity to strengthen the squad in two, three or four other areas.

 

I completely accept your points about the advisability of diversification, potential wide-ranging benefits of that, including reduced vulnerability to financial crashes - and your Kante analogy!

 

But losing a large chunk of our financial sector (which sounds increasingly likely from that Newsnight clip I posted) doesn't automatically lead to diversification.

Maybe some high-quality City employees would switch to other sectors, but those sectors would need plenty of support, funding and expertise to become more successful.

Most scientists are alarmed about the loss of access to international research networks, as I understand it.

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I completely accept your points about the advisability of diversification, potential wide-ranging benefits of that, including reduced vulnerability to financial crashes - and your Kante analogy!

 

But losing a large chunk of our financial sector (which sounds increasingly likely from that Newsnight clip I posted) doesn't automatically lead to diversification.

Maybe some high-quality City employees would switch to other sectors, but those sectors would need plenty of support, funding and expertise to become more successful.

Most scientists are alarmed about the loss of access to international research networks, as I understand it.

Alarmed is an understatement. But not, I think, surprised.

[GazzinderFox]

12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Maybe some high-quality City employees would switch to other sectors, but those sectors would need plenty of support, funding and expertise to become more successful.

I'd like to see a slow gradual decline over the next 30 years or so to a more proportional size compared to UK GDP. Engineering is a very very solid and reliable contributor to the UK economy, currently it is haemorrhaging its trained graduates into several other industries most notably the financial sector. These people are the innovative cream of the brains of this country and they are being wasted by flogging shares for a living.

[GazzinderFox]

48 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Here's an explanation for this move by McDonald's: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38255087

 

So, they're basically moving here because they'll find it easier to avoid tax, will pay lower corporation tax and will find it cheaper to send dividends out of the country to rich beneficiaries overseas. 

So, I wonder who'll be stepping up to the plate to pay more tax or accept crappier public services to compensate for all this tax avoidance by this super-rich global corporation? Us lot, of course!

 

The UK now has the moral values of a cesspit - a cesspit run to benefit greedy foreign spivs.

 

There's our future plan for post-Brexit UK: shaft British society to benefit rich global corporations while undercutting our European neighbours on social standards, We should be ashamed of ourselves.

Do Macdonalds conduct themselves less ethically than our banks then? 

[SMX11]

2 hours ago, Barky said:

I think more than anything else it's the fact that our labour is much more expensive than it is in say china. Some thought the fall in the pound would make the uk a more attractive place to do manufacturing, and it's way too early to say anything for sure, but we're now looking at quite a large drop in output which is a cause for some concern.

Labour is only a partial factor, with high labour costs companies will invest more in plant & robotics to be more productive than low cost labour from abroad . The major issue with China and globally is anti competitive market distortions, unfortunately it is very difficult to resolve. The attached file is good reading on the subject.

 

 

introduction-to-anti-competitive-market-distortions-and-the-distortions-index-pdf.pdf

[leicsmac]

13 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

I'd like to see a slow gradual decline over the next 30 years or so to a more proportional size compared to UK GDP. Engineering is a very very solid and reliable contributor to the UK economy, currently it is haemorrhaging its trained graduates into several other industries most notably the financial sector. These people are the innovative cream of the brains of this country and they are being wasted by flogging shares for a living.

No disagreement about the waste, but I'm surprised to see how long it's taking for many people to realise that the UK establishment consistently wants bankers and speculators as the cornerstone of the economy, not scientists and engineers. Right wing folks in particular, as it was an idol of theirs who made that very, very clear a few decades ago.

[GazzinderFox]

26 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

No disagreement about the waste, but I'm surprised to see how long it's taking for many people to realise that the UK establishment consistently wants bankers and speculators as the cornerstone of the economy, not scientists and engineers. Right wing folks in particular, as it was an idol of theirs who made that very, very clear a few decades ago.

I blame brexit. Lefties stressing about losing the banks, righties wondering about all the progressive possibilities for replacing them! Or the alternative is I'm just losing my mind! 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

I blame brexit. Lefties stressing about losing the banks, righties wondering about all the progressive possibilities for replacing them! Or the alternative is I'm just losing my mind! 

I know! It's like the world has turned upside down, right?

 

But seriously, STEM has never been a priority for UK governments, regardless of which party is in charge at the time. Always been arts, finance and other immediate gratification outlets. No long term thinking.

[Steven]

Breaking: UK construction output falls unexpectedly

UK construction fell 0.6% in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% rise.

UK trade deficit narrows

Britain’s trade in goods deficit narrowed more than expected in October, to £9.7bn from £13.8bn in September, as exports rose but imports fell.

A mixed bag.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/09/markets-boosted-as-ecb-pledges-to-do-more-if-necessary-business-live

[Steven]

120,000 Leave voters have died since the referendum, study suggests

Just have to wait a bit longer and Remain is in the majority! That majority is shrinking fast!

 

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-voters-120000-dead-result-7463341

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, Steven said:

Breaking: UK construction output falls unexpectedly

UK construction fell 0.6% in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% rise.

UK trade deficit narrows

Britain’s trade in goods deficit narrowed more than expected in October, to £9.7bn from £13.8bn in September, as exports rose but imports fell.

A mixed bag.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/09/markets-boosted-as-ecb-pledges-to-do-more-if-necessary-business-live

 

With all these economic stats, it's what the long-term trends are over at least a couple of quarters, if not a couple of years, that matters.

 

There are 1 or 2 worrying signs, but inconclusive so far. I imagine we'll have a much better idea where things are heading in about 6 months time.

I'm expecting things to be between very bad and disastrous for several years, but could be wrong about that.

 

Insofar as those stats tell us much, I suppose they suggest that there isn't much money or confidence in the economy, but that our trade figures are benefiting from the fall in the pound.

The latter could continue as a trend for a while, but would presumably then suffer a major reverse if we opt for Hard Brexit and this damages the competitiveness of our exporters (will take several years for any new trade deals to take effect).

In theory, I suppose high import prices (due to the pound) could make UK manufacturers more competitive in the domestic market....but if real living standards fall due to inflation & low business investment, and the Govt keeps public spending low because of the deficit, then domestic demand could shrink badly (& foreign demand for exports could shrink if poor economic performance & political uncertainty in the EU continues). Looks a bleak outlook to me, though the future is as yet unwritten....

[davieG]

Is any country going well?

Genuine question.

[Alf Bentley]

39 minutes ago, Steven said:

120,000 Leave voters have died since the referendum, study suggests

Just have to wait a bit longer and Remain is in the majority! That majority is shrinking fast!

 

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-voters-120000-dead-result-7463341

 

 

 

Not only do Leave voters tend to be older, they also tend to come from less educated, lower-paid and lower-skilled groups.

So, when the economy goes pear-shaped in 2017, even younger Leave voters will be left clad in rags, huddled shivering around bonfires, muttering about immigrants as they die of the plague.

The UK will be inherited by a new metropolitan elite master-race of Remain voters sipping latte, carrying man bags, sporting hipster beards and being politically correct.

It's evolution via Brexit, isn't it? The survival of the fittest!  

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, davieG said:

Is any country going well?

Genuine question.

 

Bermuda, the Bahamas and the Virgin Islands are prospering nicely, I think.

 

Canada and Australia are doing OK, aren't they?

 

Germany, Scandinavia and the USA doing better than us, I think, though not brilliantly. .... India is still progressing, isn't it?

 

UK plc could be following LCFC into the relegation zone over the next couple of years, I reckon. Genuinely hope I'm wrong about that, as it will affect all of us to some extent, if it does happen. 

[Steven]

22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Not only do Leave voters tend to be older, they also tend to come from less educated, lower-paid and lower-skilled groups.

So, when the economy goes pear-shaped in 2017, even younger Leave voters will be left clad in rags, huddled shivering around bonfires, muttering about immigrants as they die of the plague.

The UK will be inherited by a new metropolitan elite master-race of Remain voters sipping latte, carrying man bags, sporting hipster beards and being politically correct.

It's evolution via Brexit, isn't it? The survival of the fittest!  

I don't do any of these.