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DJ Barry Hammond

Brexit Discussion Thread.

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32 minutes ago, ed_phelan said:

It seems that many are prepared to ruin the country for future generations as long as their xenophobia can be accommodated. 

Does that mean that they won't be prepared to ruin the country for future generations if their xenophobia can't be accommodated?

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8 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

Devastating news for the German economy with it's $55 billion trade deficit with the UK if true! 

  1. I think the Germans are clever enough to find other markets - they have a reputation for quality innovative products
  2. The UK has little option but to buy goods from overseas after years of industrial neglect under Thatcher and Blair
  3. $55 billion represents two months of current German trade surplus. Spread $55 billion over the year then it knocks a little over two billion from their monthly surplus. Britain has a deficit of around $12 billion per month.
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CBI manufacturing: orders hit 20-month high

The CBI’s industrial trends survey paints a better than expected picture of the UK manufacturing sector in December.

The orders balance was 0, as 21% of businesses reported orders were above normal and 21% said they were below. That was better than the -5% predicted by economists, and the highest level in 20 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/16/investors-await-manufacturing-report-for-clues-on-uk-economy-business-live

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15 hours ago, Steven said:
  1. I think the Germans are clever enough to find other markets - they have a reputation for quality innovative products
  2. The UK has little option but to buy goods from overseas after years of industrial neglect under Thatcher and Blair
  3. $55 billion represents two months of current German trade surplus. Spread $55 billion over the year then it knocks a little over two billion from their monthly surplus. Britain has a deficit of around $12 billion per month.

Why do you think the Germans are clever enough to find other markets but not the UK?  Weird.

 

Anyway, we wont actually need a trade deal with the EU to trade with the EU, although I expect there will be a transitional deal of some sort, because it will be in everyone's interests.

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4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Why do you think the Germans are clever enough to find other markets but not the UK?  Weird.

 

Anyway, we wont actually need a trade deal with the EU to trade with the EU, although I expect there will be a transitional deal of some sort, because it will be in everyone's interests.

 

He suggested that their produce hold more prestige worldwide, for 'quality and innovation' whilst our export market isn't as large or as trusted, so it'll be easier for them to move their products

 

Not that I 100% agree with him, but that's the point I believe he's making. 

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2 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

He suggested that their produce hold more prestige worldwide, for 'quality and innovation' whilst our export market isn't as large or as trusted, so it'll be easier for them to move their products

 

Not that I 100% agree with him, but that's the point I believe he's making. 

There's nothing stopping them selling their goods to other countries now, they don't have to wait until we leave.

 

There isn't a country in the world that wouldn't miss 55 million of exports, not that all those exports will stop anyway.

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10 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

He suggested that their produce hold more prestige worldwide, for 'quality and innovation' whilst our export market isn't as large or as trusted, so it'll be easier for them to move their products

 

Not that I 100% agree with him, but that's the point I believe he's making. 

Broadly speaking that is the sentiment.

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Some balanced discussion of the current and future economic impact of Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/21/brexit-economy-referendum-inflation-uk-2017

 

"Buoyant consumer spending, a low unemployment rate, rising house prices and continued growth for the country’s dominant services sector point to a strong finish to the year, defying earlier forecasts from the Bank of England and others that the economy would grind to a standstill. But worries are growing over prospects for 2017 as signs emerge that the Brexit vote’s blow to the pound is stoking inflation and hitting people’s spending power. As the starting date for negotiations over leaving the EU approaches, the pound has come under fresh pressure in recent weeks and been prone to further downward lurches with every political mention of Brexit".

 

"The FTSE 100 leading share index is close to an all-time high hit in October and the more domestically focused FTSE midcap index is above its pre-referendum level. But the pace of hiring has slowed, retail sales growth has eased off and inflation is at a two-year high as the weak pound raises the cost of imports to the UK. The public finances were in a worse state than forecast in November and, looking ahead, they are expected to be in deficit for far longer than had been predicted before the referendum. Britain’s trading position improved more than expected in the latest monthly figures but substantial revisions to earlier data show the trade gap with the rest of the world ballooned to a near three-year high in the three months following the referendum".

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/23/deutsche-bank-credit-suisse-fined-billions-doj-monte-dei-paschi-bailout-approved-business-live

 

 

Quote

UK growth rate revised up to +0.6%

BREAKING: The UK economy grew faster than we thought in the three months after the Brexit referendum.

The Office for National Statistics has just revised up its estimate for UK GDP in the third quarter of 2016.

It now reckons that the British economy expanded by 0.6%, not the 0.5% previously seen. That’s a pretty decent rate of growth, especially given the uncertainty created by the EU referendum.

It’s because the ONS has revised up service sector growth (the largest part of the UK economy) in the last three months to 1.0%, from 08%.

And the City can take the credit, with output from the “business services and finance industries” growing faster than expected.

Darren Morgan, Head of GDP, says:

“Robust consumer demand continued to help the UK economy grow steadily in the third quarter of 2016. Growth was slightly stronger than first thought, though, due to greater output in the financial sector.”

ONS (@ONS)

0.6% rise in #GDP in Q3, slightly stronger than the 0.5% previously estimated https://t.co/eAN42TsuLh

December 23, 2016

The ONS also says that industrial production only contracted by 0.4%, not 0.5%, while construction sector output has been revised from -1.1% to -0.8%.

 

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/23/deutsche-bank-credit-suisse-fined-billions-doj-monte-dei-paschi-bailout-approved-business-live

 

Quote

Britain's current account deficit has widened

Worryingly, Britain’s current-account deficit has widened in the last quarter, as the country continues to import much more than it exports.

The difference between money flowing into the UK, and out, jumped to £25.5bn in July-September.

That’s the equivalent of 5.2% of the entire economic output this year, close to the record deficit recorded in 2013.

Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky)

UK current account deficit widens to 5.2% of GDP in Q3, despite the fall in the pound. ONS release: https://t.co/B9zloX0zOV pic.twitter.com/O1EQYgHhAR

December 23, 2016

This deterioration is mainly due to weaker trade -- Britain’s trade deficit jumped from £11bn to £16.7bn, according to the ONS.

Total UK exports decreased by 2.6% in the July-September quarter, while imports increased by 1.4%.

That’s despite the slump in the pound, which is meant to help exporters by making goods more competitively priced.

The ONS says:

Exports of goods decreased by 5.1% in Quarter 3 2016, due mainly to a decrease in exports of aircraft, chemicals and unspecified goods.

UK trade
Photograph: ONS
 

23m ago09:48

It’s not all good news, though - the ONS has revised down its estimate of UK growth in January-March to +0.3%, from +0.4%.

Growth in the second quarter of 2016 has also been trimmed, from 0.7% to 0.6%.

So, the UK economy grew just as fast in the three months after the EU referendum than in the three months after it.

Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie)

UK Q3 GDP growth revised up on quarterly basis to 0.6% from 0.5% ... and down on annual basis to 2.2% from 2.3%.

December 23, 2016
Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon)

Summary of UK GDP. Post EU leave vote revised upwards. Pre EU leave vote revised downwards #GBP #BoE

December 23, 2016

 

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So much for the special relationship! Trump's trade chief urges rivals to use 'God-given opportunity' of Brexit to steal trade from Britain

  • Wilbur Ross said Britain was facing a 'period of confusion' following Brexit vote
  • He said referendum was chance for financial rivals, notably Frankfurt and Dublin
  • Billionaire Mr Ross will be responsible for negotiating free trade deal with the UK
  • Labour blamed Theresa May's government for not articulating its vision of Brexit

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4066016/So-special-relationship-Trump-s-trade-chief-urges-rivals-use-God-given-opportunity-Brexit-steal-trade-Britain.html

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Anyone who believes we have a special relationship with the US probably

still believes in Father Chrismas and fairies at the bottom of the garden.

The US will do what it always has which is to look after it's own interests

and if we are vulnerable enough to rely on them ( like during and after World War 2 )

then they see it as an opportunity to further their self interests.

 

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It's intriguing that the rest of the world seems to almost unanimously view Brexit as a move that weakens the United Kingdom's interests, meanwhile we have to sit here and listen to Brexiters refusing to acknowledge the obvious.  

 

It's like taking a fat person who wants to lose weight out for dinner but they won't listen to your attempts to explain (with the help of medical experts) that they'll only put on more pounds if they order every salad on the menu:  In the end they stick to their guns which just worsens their situation and makes them more angry, meanwhile you're left more out of pocket than had you simply not let them choose.

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Since we voted, our economy has not instantly collapsed. The Pound has decreased in value. This has boosted our stock market, since it's cheaper to buy FTSE100 and FTSE250 shares.

 

The banking sector, however, almost 1/3 of our economy, is getting twitchy, eyeing both France and Ireland. And companies, notably Japanese companies, are increasingly nervous because of the single market's importance. And our credit rating has been lowered.

 

But these are far from our most worrying trends.

 

A bullet was shot through an MP's head. "Britain First" would have been the last thing she heard. Her grieving husband was attacked by the leading Brexiteer for being a member of an extremist group. An extremist group called "hope not hate".

 

I have friends, who grew up beside me, now openly being told to "go home". The BBC and various others have documented the increase in hate crime.

 

A gang found and killed a Pole in Harlow. May even asked Warsaw to lend us police to defuse tensions in the Heathrow area. A Czech guy was beaten to death in Poplar.

 

Let's pretend you're Was or Kapustka. You are likely fine. But your friends, your family? Do you feel safe now? People have started being murdered for their nationality and views. Was this the "taking back power" the 52% were promised?

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