Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, davieG said:

The 'richer' EU countries pulling in the skilled people from the 'poorer' countries doesn't strike me as something that should be encouraged.

 

It makes the richer counties lazy with regards to training and it means the poorer countries will take that much longer to equalise themselves with those richer countries.

 

This inequality I believe is one of the biggest obstacles to a thriving homogenised, politically and economical EU.  

 

Countries that do this should be forced to pay compensation to affected country whether in the EU or not.

 

Probably a Utopian scenario but....

 

Until about 10-15 years ago, there had been a lot of convergence between richer and poorer EU countries (to the long-term benefit of all).

In about 1980, countries like Ireland and Spain still seemed very backward compared to the UK, France or Germany.

 

That positive trend seems to have stopped, or even gone into reverse in the last 10-15 years. Lack of funds due to the 2008 crash certainly hasn't helped. But policy decisions seem partly to blame.

Opting for a single currency and single (and highly restrictive) monetary policy without a single fiscal policy may have helped the highly-advanced, high-productivity German economy, but it's done much for Greece, Spain etc.

 

Maybe freedom of movement (particularly for skilled people) has similarly adverse consequences, as you suggest. I'm sure it's not quite that simple, though, as some gain skills and experience, then return to their home countries.

Meanwhile, unskilled migrants come here, earn more than they would back home, send/bring some of it home with them (benefiting their domestic economy) while not being a burden to their domestic economy through unemployment, use of public services etc.

I presume someone somewhere will have done some proper research looking at the pros and cons of all that.....but a project that was performing well for several decades certainly seems to have hit major problems.

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

Top economist says the profession is 'in crisis' after getting the post brexit vote economy predictions totally wrong. This is after utterly missing the financial crisis. 

 

Can somebody remind me, when Boris Johnson's economy predictions are more accurate than this lot, what are these 'experts' for again?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924    

It's been an interesting morning, I still have no idea why we give so much air time to economists, the only thing we really know is they'll be wrong, we just don't know how much by, it could be better than they predict, it could be worse.

 

The referendum campaign was different though, you could see the agenda from the start with the forecasts that were commissioned by Call Me Dave and Gideon, Tim Shipman and Craig Oliver's brilliant books from inside the campaign show how the economists put the data in that they wanted to get the right answers the government wantedto the questions they wanted answered in a certain way, hence the absurd pre-EU predictions of how worse off we'll be by 2030 (when they can't even predict 6 months in advance), put the absolute worst case scenario in for everything and get the answer you want, terrible chicanery and the people just weren't going to be conned again.

 

At least Michael Fish didn't manipulate his own data when he got it wrong.

 

45 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Good article. I hope Cable returns to parliament some time as he's one of our more thoughtful politicians.

 

Remainers and Lefties need to address this issue. Virtue-signalling opposition to racism isn't enough.

 

Of course, other factors have increased concerns over free movement: stagnant incomes, job insecurity, lack of cash for public services, shortage of affordable housing. Large-scale immigration would be less of a concern without those factors - but it would still be a concern to some extent.

I never liked Cable, I thought at times his intention was to bring down the coalition rather than work in it (I realise the irony there) but he was a great thinker and speaker, I was surprised the Lib Dems didn't put him up in Richmond Park rather tha stick with that girl who runs away from interviews.

 

I don't think the virtue signalling is going to die down any time soon, it's ingrained in huge parts of the left now, Will Self was on Question Time a while back and was still quite adament that they weren't genuine concerns, people just "didn't like brown people" - quite astounding comments from a man of his intelligence.

 

The issue of integration does seem to have hit home finally with some though, Chukka Umanna's all-parliamentary group has now recommended all migrants learn English and as quick as possible - http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/570513f1b504f500db000001/attachments/original/1483608320/APPG_Interim_Report_Screen.pdf?1483608320

 

Quote

The APPG believes that all immigrants should be expected to have either learned English before coming to the UK or be enrolled in compulsory ESOL classes upon arrival… speaking English is the key to full participation in our society and economy, and is a prerequisite for meaningful engagement with most British people.”

 

That's quite a climbdown from a couple of years back when he pretty much accused Farage of dog-whistle politics for saying the exact same thing. You could barely think of a more fervant remainer than Chukka, so some are learning the lessons.

[Guest MattP]

18 minutes ago, davieG said:

The 'richer' EU countries pulling in the skilled people from the 'poorer' countries doesn't strike me as something that should be encouraged.

 

I posted this last year but it's certainly gaining some traction politically now in the East.

 

A Farming anti emigration party actually won the election.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_parliamentary_election,_2016

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

I don't think the virtue signalling is going to die down any time soon, it's ingrained in huge parts of the left now, Will Self was on Question Time a while back and was still quite adament that they weren't genuine concerns, people just "didn't like brown people" - quite astounding comments from a man of his intelligence.

 

The issue of integration does seem to have hit home finally with some though, Chukka Umanna's all-parliamentary group has now recommended all migrants learn English and as quick as possible - http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/570513f1b504f500db000001/attachments/original/1483608320/APPG_Interim_Report_Screen.pdf?1483608320

That's quite a climbdown from a couple of years back when he pretty much accused Farage of dog-whistle politics for saying the exact same thing. You could barely think of a more fervant remainer than Chukka, so some are learning the lessons.

 

I completely agree that all immigrants should have to learn English (maybe excluding anyone on a very short-term contract where it is not needed?).

I certainly don't think that immigrant communities should be pressured to give up their cultural traditions (unless those clearly breach legal/cultural expectations here). But the ability to communicate in the native language is important, and can play a major role in defusing distrust between immigrants and natives.

 

It would also be good for women from communities where the tradition is for women to stay at home - would give them more power and open up social opportunities.

 

I'm sure that Will Self wasn't virtue signalling (he probably doesn't give a shit what people think of him), but that's certainly a massive over-generalisation if he said that. Maybe he expressed himself loosely as SOME people certainly don't like brown people, but that certainly doesn't apply to everyone expressing concerns about immigration.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I completely agree that all immigrants should have to learn English (maybe excluding anyone on a very short-term contract where it is not needed?).

I certainly don't think that immigrant communities should be pressured to give up their cultural traditions (unless those clearly breach legal/cultural expectations here). But the ability to communicate in the native language is important, and can play a major role in defusing distrust between immigrants and natives.

 

It would also be good for women from communities where the tradition is for women to stay at home - would give them more power and open up social opportunities.

 

I'm sure that Will Self wasn't virtue signalling (he probably doesn't give a shit what people think of him), but that's certainly a massive over-generalisation if he said that. Maybe he expressed himself loosely as SOME people certainly don't like brown people, but that certainly doesn't apply to everyone expressing concerns about immigration.

Completely agree with the top part, definitely the idea that it would help with equality as well.

 

I've found the video of Will Self on QT, he said it pretty clearly to be honest - "The people who line up on the opposition to immigration line of the argument are usually racist, they are, they are, particulary with black and brown people"  (just after 11.40)

 

 

[Webbo]

31 minutes ago, Barky said:

Seriously?

 

We import oil so the 20% fall in the pound caused by brexit adds 20% to the price.

 

Seperately, Opec have agreed to cut production which will push prices up further.

 

Those two *seperate* issues, one of which is directly attributable to brexit, the other not, will *combine* to push prices up to record levels. 

The majority of the cost on a litre of petrol is tax which won't be affected by the fall in the pound. Petrol will go up, probably to around £1.30 a litre like it was before. I'd be amazed if it went over £1.50

[GazzinderFox]

1 hour ago, Barky said:

We'll see if they're right on brexit in time. What we know so far is that our currency has been utterly annihilated and that people in general have so far brushed it off. Will they still be brushing it off in a year when petrol is at £2 per litre we'll have to see.

This is what you said.

 

26 minutes ago, Barky said:

Seriously?

 

We import oil so the 20% fall in the pound caused by brexit adds 20% to the price.

 

Seperately, Opec have agreed to cut production which will push prices up further.

 

Those two *seperate* issues, one of which is directly attributable to brexit, the other not, will *combine* to push prices up to record levels. 

This is you justifying what you said after you were pulled up on it. You were trying to pin a petrol price rise on brexit. This is untrue. It won't reach £2 in that time anyway. Please stop.

 

[The Doctor]

9 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

This is what you said.

 

This is you justifying what you said after you were pulled up on it. You were trying to pin a petrol price rise on brexit. This is untrue. It won't reach £2 in that time anyway. Please stop.

 

Except brexit cutting the value of the pound will contribute to an increase in petrol prices. Even if the price of oil wasn't going up petrol prices will go up if the pound continues to fall. A price rise wouldn't be entirely because of brexit, but brexit would be a contributing factor to the price rise - barky has been clear on that.

[Webbo]

14 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The majority of the cost on a litre of petrol is tax which won't be affected by the fall in the pound. Petrol will go up, probably to around £1.30 a litre like it was before. I'd be amazed if it went over £1.50

Actually, according to this from 2014, when petrol was around £1.30 a litre, 61% of the price is tax.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/10668970/British-fuel-tax-highest-in-Europe.html

 

So thats 39% of £1.15, as it is now = 45p. 20% of that is 9p so it'll go up to £1.24 as a result of Brexit although some of the fall in the pound has already been factored into the current price.

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

I've found the video of Will Self on QT, he said it pretty clearly to be honest - "The people who line up on the opposition to immigration line of the argument are usually racist, they are, they are, particulary with black and brown people"  (just after 11.40)

 

I think the context should be made clear: your video clip dates from 2012 and is a general discussion about immigration levels and Britishness. It has nothing to do with Brexit. The referendum wasn't even scheduled then.

 

That said, I agree that he's guilty of a serious over-generalisation there. Saying that people who oppose high immigration are "usually racist" is unreasonable. If he'd substituted the word "sometimes" for "usually", I'd have agreed with him, though.

[GazzinderFox]

Just now, The Doctor said:

Except brexit cutting the value of the pound will contribute to an increase in petrol prices. Even if the price of oil wasn't going up petrol prices will go up if the pound continues to fall. A price rise wouldn't be entirely because of brexit, but brexit would be a contributing factor to the price rise - barky has been clear on that.

Yeah since I pulled him up on it!

[Barky]

12 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The majority of the cost on a litre of petrol is tax which won't be affected by the fall in the pound. Petrol will go up, probably to around £1.30 a litre like it was before. I'd be amazed if it went over £1.50

It peaked at £1.42 and was well over £1.30 for three straight years. Fuel duty shouldn't be affected but that's less than half of the price. VAT is a percentage on top so will go up with the price of oil. I'd be amazed if it doesn't breach £1.50. Let's wait and see.

[Innovindil]

54 minutes ago, Barky said:

It peaked at £1.42 and was well over £1.30 for three straight years. Fuel duty shouldn't be affected but that's less than half of the price. VAT is a percentage on top so will go up with the price of oil. I'd be amazed if it doesn't breach £1.50. Let's wait and see.

I'm really struggling to think of where on earth you are getting a £2/litre from. 

 

The pound falling has mostly already trickled through to petrol prices, we are now expected to leave the single market so the pound should not get that much lower and the opec announcement caused a large spike in petrol price increase, which is what is filtering through to prices now. That announcement is likely to be the biggest rise in petrol prices, these barrel cutting agreements are notorious for being agreed and then broken in short order. 

 

You'd have to be living in Queen Nicola's "petrol will hit $200/barrel" dreamworld of old to think we're heading for £2/litre. 

[Guest MattP]

Good to see the ridiculous scaremongering on predicting farcical figures has stopped

[Barky]

23 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

I'm really struggling to think of where on earth you are getting a £2/litre from. 

 

The pound falling has mostly already trickled through to petrol prices, we are now expected to leave the single market so the pound should not get that much lower and the opec announcement caused a large spike in petrol price increase, which is what is filtering through to prices now. That announcement is likely to be the biggest rise in petrol prices, these barrel cutting agreements are notorious for being agreed and then broken in short order. 

 

You'd have to be living in Queen Nicola's "petrol will hit $200/barrel" dreamworld of old to think we're heading for £2/litre. 

We'll see. It's already at an 18-month high. Let's see how high it goes.

[SMX11]

Aren't fuel prices largely made up of tax anyway? That part is the mostly easily controllable. 

[Barky]

18 minutes ago, SMX11 said:

Aren't fuel prices largely made up of tax anyway? That part is the mostly easily controllable. 

Fuel duty is controllable. It's about 48p per litre. The rest isn't controllable. The government might reduce fuel duty in the even of a sharp rise, but that money would only have to come from somewhere else 

[SMX11]

1 hour ago, Barky said:

Fuel duty is controllable. It's about 48p per litre. The rest isn't controllable. The government might reduce fuel duty in the even of a sharp rise, but that money would only have to come from somewhere else 

Just read a bit about it on the ONS website and it appears that at least 70% of the price is on fuel duty and VAT.  

[Barky]

1 minute ago, SMX11 said:

Just read a bit about it on the ONS website and it appears that at least 70% of the price is on fuel duty and VAT.  

VAT is a fixed percentage on top of the fuel duty and petrol elements so if the price of the petrol element goes up then the amount of VAT you pay goes up as well. Fuel duty is a fixed amount of tax per litre but that's less than half of the overal cost per litre. So over half of the cost is determined by the price of oil which is influenced by the value of the pound and by OPEC. 

[Guest MattP]

Just another quick word on the economic forecasts....

 

It actually works out pretty well for any Brexiteer/Leave campaigner, obviously it was a nightmare during the referendum as we thought it was more likely it would sway people towards voting to stay, now they have voted to leave that's what the economics are going to be judged against.

 

Providing it turns out better than they predicted (which is highly possible given they have predicted the World falls in) it's going to make leaving the European Union a lot easier to defend in the future, if you are going to scaremonger in politics to win a vote, you better make sure you do win it as you leave yourself in a right hole if you don't.

[Barky]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Just another quick word on the economic forecasts....

 

It actually works out pretty well for any Brexiteer/Leave campaigner, obviously it was a nightmare during the referendum as we thought it was more likely it would sway people towards voting to stay, now they have voted to leave that's what the economics are going to be judged against.

 

Providing it turns out better than they predicted (which is highly possible given they have predicted the World falls in) it's going to make leaving the European Union a lot easier to defend in the future, if you are going to scaremonger in politics to win a vote, you better make sure you do win it as you leave yourself in a right hole if you don't.

Works both ways though doesn't it? What happens when life doesn't magically become better just because there are a few fewer foreigners about?

[Innovindil]

16 minutes ago, Barky said:

Works both ways though doesn't it? What happens when life doesn't magically become better just because there are a few fewer foreigners about?

Mines got better from the mere threat of having fewer foreigners about. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Barky]

28 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Mines got better from the mere threat of having fewer foreigners about. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

How?

[Spudulike]

Can someone tell me what the value of the pound would now be had the referendum delivered a remain vote please ?? I need to know so that I can validate all these figures being quoted for how much the price of petrol has risen due to Brexit (which hasn't yet happened). Thanks.

[Webbo]

The Euro has also fallen against the Dollar, is that down to Brexit?