Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Barky said:

You'd do well to convince anyone that voluntary migration is tantamount to theft to be honest . 

 

I don't know exactly what the impact is on the immigrant's countries of origin, but given most tend to come here for a few years, save money and then return home and spend it, I can't see how it's going to be too detrimental. Maybe it raises wages in those countries, which would be a good thing for them.

 

The same thing happens within the uk as well. Many people move from poor regions to more wealthy areas like London for work and money. That probably contributes to some extent towards the poorer regions staying relatively poor, but if those people had stayed it would be no guarantee that those regions would be any better off. The reasons why some regions and countries are poorer than others are a lot deeper than that, just keeping people there won't solve their problems, but it will prevent the people themselves from bettering themselves.

They are bettering themselves but are hampering any progress of their country, it's all very capitalist and not very socialist. Do you have data to back up that most return home after a few years? I'm not sure that's true but I'd be happy to be wrong.

You point to people in this country moving to more prosperous areas to improve themselves and you are right, this is why we have a huge gulf here too but it pales into insignificance when you compare it across EU nations. 

[bovril]

13 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Absolutely! It's quite sinister when you think about it, which is why I wanted to hear a few more opinions on it.

I've heard this argument a lot from nationalists and conspiracy theory types in Eastern Europe, that the EU has 'colonised' their countries and drained them of their young people. I agree that it's not an ideal situation but not sure I buy that it's a deliberate and sinister policy.

 

People move around. Punitive controls are not going to make any difference, prohibition just means people do or get things in an illegal way. The real problems are population growth and massive inequality. We are a small nation with a very high standard of living with the most commonly-spoken language on the planet, Brexit is like turning off your tap when your town is flooding.

[Barky]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

They are bettering themselves but are hampering any progress of their country, it's all very capitalist and not very socialist. Do you have data to back up that most return home after a few years? I'm not sure that's true but I'd be happy to be wrong.

You point to people in this country moving to more prosperous areas to improve themselves and you are right, this is why we have a huge gulf here too but it pales into insignificance when you compare it across EU nations. 

Like I said the reasons why some regions and countries are poorer than others is a lot more complex than just migration. Do you really think if a few Polish plumbers stayed in Poland it would make any difference to the situation in Poland? Their country was relatively poor before mass migration, it's actually a lot better off now.

 

Figure 3 here shows the majority intend to stay up to 4 years. I don't think you'll get reliable stats because the uk doesn't track people in and out.

 

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, bovril said:

I've heard this argument a lot from nationalists and conspiracy theory types in Eastern Europe, that the EU has 'colonised' their countries and drained them of their young people. I agree that it's not an ideal situation but not sure I buy that it's a deliberate and sinister policy.

 

People move around. Punitive controls are not going to make any difference, prohibition just means people do or get things in an illegal way. The real problems are population growth and massive inequality. We are a small nation with a very high standard of living with the most commonly-spoken language on the planet, Brexit is like turning off your tap when your town is flooding.

So you don't think there is a solution to it? Dave suggested that the beneficiary pay the origin nation and I think that would be a good start. They are benefiting from others investments. Maybe if the EU introduced a tax for this, the wealthy countries would invest a bit more in home growth education.

(this all sounds very familiar, like I've heard this argument but in a different context)

[bovril]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

So you don't think there is a solution to it?

Don't ask me to add depth to my hastily written online posts!

 

Love the profile pic.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Barky said:

Like I said the reasons why some regions and countries are poorer than others is a lot more complex than just migration. Do you really think if a few Polish plumbers stayed in Poland it would make any difference to the situation in Poland? Their country was relatively poor before mass migration, it's actually a lot better off now.

 

Figure 3 here shows the majority intend to stay up to 4 years. I don't think you'll get reliable stats because the uk doesn't track people in and out.

 

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

That's a bit of a condescending reply, if all we are gaining is a few polish plumbers then why are we bothered about gaining them in the first place?

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

 

 

Love the profile pic.

I'm surprised I've not been told to remove it tbh.

[Barky]

26 minutes ago, Strokes said:

That's a bit of a condescending reply, if all we are gaining is a few polish plumbers then why are we bothered about gaining them in the first place?

Well the numbers are a few, relatively speaking, and their skill levels tend to be at the lower end as you were saying earlier. It's not like all of Poland's best and brightest are coming here. It's generally young people at around the skill level of a plumber or below. If they stayed in Poland, it would make little difference to Poland.

 

In any case I find this line of thought quite grim. Would you support people born in say Glenfield being forced to stay in Glenfield their entire lives so that they can maximise the benefit they can bring to Glenfield? Should people from Glenfield have to do all their shopping in Glenfield to support Glenfield's shops? Should they have to take their holidays in Glenfield to support Glenfield's tourism industry? Migration has been going on since time immemorial. People always have and always will move to where there are work and prospects. Many of the world's finest cities are built on relatively recent migration. The idea that we should all just stay where we are born and only ever mix with 'our own' makes me feel a bit sick. Biologically speaking that reaction makes sense too because what you are basically suggesting is eventually going to lead to enforced inbreeding, isn't it?

[Strokes]

7 minutes ago, Barky said:

Well the numbers are a few, relatively speaking, and their skill levels tend to be at the lower end as you were saying earlier. It's not like all of Poland's best and brightest are coming here. It's generally young people at around the skill level of a plumber or below. If they stayed in Poland, it would make little difference to Poland.

 

In any case I find this line of thought quite grim. Would you support people born in say Glenfield being forced to stay in Glenfield their entire lives so that they can maximise the benefit they can bring to Glenfield? Should people from Glenfield have to do all their shopping in Glenfield to support Glenfield's shops? Should they have to take their holidays in Glenfield to support Glenfield's tourism industry? Migration has been going on since time immemorial. People always have and always will move to where there are work and prospects. Many of the world's finest cities are built on relatively recent migration. The idea that we should all just stay where we are born and only ever mix with 'our own' makes me feel a bit sick. Biologically speaking that reaction makes sense too because what you are basically suggesting is eventually going to lead to enforced inbreeding, isn't it?

Who said anything about forcing people to do anything? We were talking compensation, I'm not sure quite where you are getting that from.

If the UK are gaining talent, then it's pretty obvious the contributor must be losing, to some degree. You mentioned earlier that this is forcing wages up in Poland, does that mean you agree it's suppressing wages here?

[Barky]

9 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Who said anything about forcing people to do anything? We were talking compensation, I'm not sure quite where you are getting that from.

If the UK are gaining talent, then it's pretty obvious the contributor must be losing, to some degree. You mentioned earlier that this is forcing wages up in Poland, does that mean you agree it's suppressing wages here?

I think it's pretty well documented that wages for lower skilled jobs have fallen very slightly at the same time as mass immigration of lower skilled people has occurred. There is probably some causation there, but I wouldn't rule out other factors. Increased automation being the main one. I don't think there are as many low skilled jobs as there used to be relative to the native population.

[Strokes]

Just now, Barky said:

I think it's pretty well documented that wages for lower skilled jobs have fallen very slightly at the same time as mass immigration of lower skilled people has occurred. There is probably some causation there, but I wouldn't rule out other factors. Increased automation being the main one. I don't think there are as many low skilled jobs as there used to be relative to the native population.

The trouble with allowing very low skilled wages to fall (very slightly or not) is these are also the people affected by services pressures that immigration brings. They don't feel the benefits of a larger economy, quite the opposite. They see further education being sidelined by companies, in place of ready made/trained from abroad whilst their kids can't get a plumbers apprenticeship like they did. Their kids can't move out because house prices have sky rocketed, it's no wonder the poor voted for us to leave the EU. They get all of the downsides and aren't able to benefit from most of the upsides.

[Barky]

45 minutes ago, Strokes said:

The trouble with allowing very low skilled wages to fall (very slightly or not) is these are also the people affected by services pressures that immigration brings. They don't feel the benefits of a larger economy, quite the opposite. They see further education being sidelined by companies, in place of ready made/trained from abroad whilst their kids can't get a plumbers apprenticeship like they did. Their kids can't move out because house prices have sky rocketed, it's no wonder the poor voted for us to leave the EU. They get all of the downsides and aren't able to benefit from most of the upsides.

If the government is failing to equip kids with relevant skills for the modern world through education and failing to promote the building of enough houses to give them places to live then there is justification for being unhappy with the government's performance. Blaming the EU for our own government's incompetence just lets them off the hook. The government aren't completely stupid, they knew that mass immigration was going to happen, they knew the sort of issues that would arise, they knew what they should have been doing to mitigate those issues. The problem is that they didn't do anything. They just let it all happen and let the problems mount up. They've then used divide and rule to turn people against each other instead of against them. That's why 90% of the posts on this thread are about 'them' and 'us' meaning brexiters and remainers instead of them and us meaning the government and the people. We're all now so preoccupied arguing with each other that the actual perpetrators of the problems are getting off scot-free. 

[Spiritwalker]

6 hours ago, Strokes said:

I don't care about the amount of immigration per se, I care about the quality of it. There are some highly skilled individuals coming from the EU and that should remain but there are also some low skilled and that should be controlled/stemmed, especially when it counters the highly skilled coming in from outside of the EU.

We need to have controls so we can invest in the services before they arrive, not retrospectively, pushing up house prices and straining services. This is making the poorest in society, poorer. Young adults cannot get on the housing ladder, housing shortages and suppressed wages are to blame. This can all be reversed by a well planned immigration policy imo.

I think that those who run industry are more concerned with losing access to low skilled workers

than they are with losing access to highly skilled workers.

I agree that in theory controlling immigration gives the government the opportunity to plan

infastructure and services better, but let's be honest it will make no difference

 

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Barky said:

If the government is failing to equip kids with relevant skills for the modern world through education and failing to promote the building of enough houses to give them places to live then there is justification for being unhappy with the government's performance. Blaming the EU for our own government's incompetence just lets them off the hook. The government aren't completely stupid, they knew that mass immigration was going to happen, they knew the sort of issues that would arise, they knew what they should have been doing to mitigate those issues. The problem is that they didn't do anything. They just let it all happen and let the problems mount up. They've then used divide and rule to turn people against each other instead of against them. That's why 90% of the posts on this thread are about 'them' and 'us' meaning brexiters and remainers instead of them and us meaning the government and the people. We're all now so preoccupied arguing with each other that the actual perpetrators of the problems are getting off scot-free. 

This was the one vote that offered something different, rather than two sides offering the same thing with a slightly different catchphrase. The EU, successive British governments have ignored this problem and now the price has to paid.

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, Barky said:

If the government is failing to equip kids with relevant skills for the modern world through education and failing to promote the building of enough houses to give them places to live then there is justification for being unhappy with the government's performance. Blaming the EU for our own government's incompetence just lets them off the hook. The government aren't completely stupid, they knew that mass immigration was going to happen, they knew the sort of issues that would arise, they knew what they should have been doing to mitigate those issues. The problem is that they didn't do anything. They just let it all happen and let the problems mount up. They've then used divide and rule to turn people against each other instead of against them. That's why 90% of the posts on this thread are about 'them' and 'us' meaning brexiters and remainers instead of them and us meaning the government and the people. We're all now so preoccupied arguing with each other that the actual perpetrators of the problems are getting off scot-free. 

Where would you have built the houses seeing as we don't know where these immigrants plan to settle before they arrive nor how many are coming?

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

 

I agree that in theory controlling immigration gives the government the opportunity to plan

infastructure and services better, but let's be honest it will make no difference

 

I don't know, I'm optimistic it will make a difference, it's probably naive but we will see. It certainly won't be overnight I'd guess at more than a decade before anything can be truest judged a success or failure.

[Barky]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Where would you have built the houses seeing as we don't know where these immigrants plan to settle before they arrive nor how many are coming?

Immigrants go where the jobs are and tend to prefer living in urban areas. The government didn't know precise numbers of expected arrivals but it wouldn't have been hard to come up with a decent estimate based on past figures. Not knowing these things with perfect accuracy is no excuse for doing nothing.

[Webbo]

Just now, Barky said:

Immigrants go where the jobs are and tend to prefer living in urban areas. The government didn't know precise numbers of expected arrivals but it wouldn't have been hard to come up with a decent estimate based on past figures. Not knowing these things with perfect accuracy is no excuse for doing nothing.

A lot go to London, not much building land there.

[Spiritwalker]

8 minutes ago, Barky said:

If the government is failing to equip kids with relevant skills for the modern world through education and failing to promote the building of enough houses to give them places to live then there is justification for being unhappy with the government's performance. Blaming the EU for our own government's incompetence just lets them off the hook. The government aren't completely stupid, they knew that mass immigration was going to happen, they knew the sort of issues that would arise, they knew what they should have been doing to mitigate those issues. The problem is that they didn't do anything. They just let it all happen and let the problems mount up. They've then used divide and rule to turn people against each other instead of against them. That's why 90% of the posts on this thread are about 'them' and 'us' meaning brexiters and remainers instead of them and us meaning the government and the people. We're all now so preoccupied arguing with each other that the actual perpetrators of the problems are getting off scot-free. 

Very good post.

Many brexiters that I have spoken to have cited strains on schools and the NHS as reasons 

for voting leave, but the larger the population and more people paying taxes, the more money

going to the treasury. This should mean more money available for infrastructure and social care.

[Barky]

9 minutes ago, Strokes said:

This was the one vote that offered something different, rather than two sides offering the same thing with a slightly different catchphrase. The EU, successive British governments have ignored this problem and now the price has to paid.

It didn't offer anything different at the level the problems exis which is the uk government. We've still got the same parties, the only difference now is that we've got a prime minister who nobody voted for.

[Barky]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

A lot go to London, not much building land there.

So build more outside London and improve the transport infrastructure to allow people to live further out. No end of people living in urban London would jump at the chance to move further out if only it didn't take them hours every day to get into the city for work. Better yet improve infrastructure in other parts of the country to promote more balanced job growth across the country where there is plenty of room for new development. Just do something, instead of nothing.

[Strokes]

Just now, Barky said:

It didn't offer anything different at the level the problems exis which is the uk government. We've still got the same parties, the only difference now is that we've got a prime minister who nobody voted for.

You don't vote for a prime minister, you vote for an MP, a party and a manifesto. In that manifesto was a referendum, if it wasn't I very much doubt we would have had a conservative majority.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Barky said:

So build more outside London and improve the transport infrastructure to allow people to live further out. No end of people living in urban London would jump at the chance to move further out of only it didn't take them hours every day to get into the city for work. Better yet improve infrastructure in other parts of the country to promote more balanced job growth across the country where there is plenty of room for new development. Just do something, instead of nothing.

That's a lot of money to spend, how much tax are these people paying?

 

 

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

That's a lot of money to spend, how much tax are these people paying?

 

 

They're only here for a short time before they return home, so who knows?

[Barky]

9 minutes ago, Webbo said:

That's a lot of money to spend, how much tax are these people paying?

 

 

They're paying the same rate of tax as everyone else. It's hard to measure but generally immigrants are thought to contribute more than they take. 

https://fullfact.org/immigration/do-eu-immigrants-contribute-134-every-1-they-receive/

 

How much potential tax revenue isn't being realised because we're failing to invest enough in improving people's skills and the country's infrastructure? We've got one of the worst productivity levels in the developed world, the worst traffic problems in the developed world, the highest public transport costs in developed Europe and our ranking in education is dropping like a stone. Doesn't that set off some alarm bells?