Guest MattP Posted 12 January 2017 Share Posted 12 January 2017 Some news from yesterday that went under the radar amid Trump and Corbyn hogging the headlines. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/11/mark-carney-signals-bank-of-england-may-raise-forecast-for-uk-economy Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor now says he is “surprised” his forecast of an immediate post-Leave vote slump has not come true, admitting the BoE is “very likely” to improve its economic forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg in particular giving him a pretty hard time with the questioning. Carney also said the EU faces more immediate economic danger tha us. Should really now be worried given his recent record of predicting things, but it is nice to hear some positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 12 January 2017 Share Posted 12 January 2017 21 minutes ago, MattP said: Some news from yesterday that went under the radar amid Trump and Corbyn hogging the headlines. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/11/mark-carney-signals-bank-of-england-may-raise-forecast-for-uk-economy Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor now says he is “surprised” his forecast of an immediate post-Leave vote slump has not come true, admitting the BoE is “very likely” to improve its economic forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg in particular giving him a pretty hard time with the questioning. Carney also said the EU faces more immediate economic danger tha us. Should really now be worried given his recent record of predicting things, but it is nice to hear some positives. Personally I'm a big fan of the part where he had to toot his own horn about how he saved us from a market crash, but somehow didn't mention that he prematurely shot his load on interest rates. Still, good news is good news. The stronger we are now the more likely we are to weather the article 50 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpe's Fox Posted 13 January 2017 Share Posted 13 January 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit Just shows that access to cheap capital remains more important than any federalist principles these eurosnakes might have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajthefox Posted 13 January 2017 Share Posted 13 January 2017 On 12/01/2017 at 08:41, MattP said: Some news from yesterday that went under the radar amid Trump and Corbyn hogging the headlines. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/11/mark-carney-signals-bank-of-england-may-raise-forecast-for-uk-economy Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor now says he is “surprised” his forecast of an immediate post-Leave vote slump has not come true, admitting the BoE is “very likely” to improve its economic forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg in particular giving him a pretty hard time with the questioning. Carney also said the EU faces more immediate economic danger tha us. Should really now be worried given his recent record of predicting things, but it is nice to hear some positives. Interesting reading given his predictions like you say. The thing I find a bit baffling is that in the same article, they say the pound hit a near 32 year low on Wednesday. Obviously the low pound is good for certain things but it's hardly a good sign generally speaking is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 4 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit Just shows that access to cheap capital remains more important than any federalist principles these eurosnakes might have. Interesting article indeed. And more good news that a fair deal for all might still be doable. Might not be eating the cake, but I can definitely smell it baking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 Support for EU freedom of movement rules 'eroding' Kamal AhmedEconomics editor One of the most senior Dutch government ministers has said a fundamental EU principle, freedom of movement, needs to be radically reformed. Deputy prime minister Lodewijk Asscher said support was falling across Europe over the way it has been implemented. Free movement, which allows any citizen of an EU country to work anywhere across the bloc, had led to wages being undercut and jobs lost, he said. Mr Asscher argued the Brexit talks were a chance to look again at the policy. Reform, he told the BBC, would mean "less immigration" across the EU if undercutting wages was banned. The stark attack on the way freedom of movement operates could be helpful to Theresa May as Britain looks to gain privileged access to the single market at the same time as controlling EU immigration once the UK has left the EU. Mr Asscher is the leader of the Dutch Labour Party, which is in a coalition government with the People's Party for Freedom, led by the Netherlands' prime minister, Mark Rutte - who is seen as an ally of the UK. Although Mr Asscher made it clear that he supported the principle of free movement, he said the rule had been used as a "business model" for lowering wages. "In essence [what] we have seen happening [is] that free movement has become synonymous with a race to the bottom, with undercutting of wages, with unfair competition in the labour market and that has to do with the rules Europe has produced itself," said Mr Asscher, who is also the Dutch employment minister. "It is not the principle, it is the rule that has become such a big issue. It means that here in the Netherlands, like in other countries, on the scaffolding [site] you can see a Romanian or Portuguese painter doing the exact same work as a Dutch painter right next to him that is allowed to earn two, three, four hundred euros less than the Dutch worker. Image captionDutch deputy prime minister Lodewijk Asscher says it would be a 'mistake' not to reform the EU "That means, of course, that the Dutch painter is out of work, out of a job," Mr Asscher said. "It means the smaller company that cannot afford to hire internationally is out of work. "It means the support for the principle - which in essence is good - is eroding. "It has to change if we want to preserve the principle, if we want to preserve the support for the European Union. "The problem is that it has become a business model, a business model for lowering wages. "I think there would be less migration if the principle of equal pay for equal work had been honoured." Whether free movement of workers has actually led to lower wages and fewer jobs - a key part of the referendum debate in the UK - is controversial and has been disputed. The Dutch government is preparing for elections in March where immigration is one of the key issues. Geert Wilders' far-right Freedom Party is running on a tough anti-immigration ticket and has called for a referendum on whether the Netherlands should leave the EU. Image copyrightREUTERS Image captionThe Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, is ahead in the polls It has been gaining support and could be the largest party after the election. Mr Asscher's move on freedom of movement is seen by some as an effort to shore up support for the Labour Party. The deputy prime minister said that although the Netherlands was a natural ally of the UK, the EU would negotiate as a bloc and that Britain could not "have its cake and eat it", cherry picking which parts of the EU rule book it wanted to abide by in return for special access to the economically important single market. "I think what is important with what both Angela Merkel [the German Chancellor] and my Prime Minister have said [is] that you can't just say 'I want this to happen' and have everybody else say yes. "You need to make sure the change is to the benefit to all members. "Not just because you want something done, you only want the dessert and not the other things. "It would however be a mistake, a serious political mistake, if we don't use the Brexit momentum to look at what is wrong with the current European Union. We need it to change. "It would be my hope, because we are so close to the UK, that there is a good deal between the EU and the UK. "We have always been allies, and we are very important trading partners. "We should not go out there to punish the Brits, we want them to prosper with us. "However, a negotiation is a negotiation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 UK and New Zealand plan free trade deal after Brexit 13 January 2017 From the sectionUK Politics Share Image captionThe UK is already one of New Zealand's largest trade partners New Zealand hopes to negotiate a "high quality" free trade agreement with the UK once it leaves the EU, its prime minister Bill English has said. Following a meeting with Theresa May, he said he hoped this would happen "as soon as possible". Mrs May said both countries already enjoy a strong and growing trading relationship worth over £3bn last year. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox will be visiting New Zealand in the coming months, she said. Mrs May said her colleague would begin a bilateral dialogue between the two nations with the ultimate aim of striking a trade deal. Island nations The small Oceanic country of less than five million people is believed to be seen in government circles as one of the best prospects for an early trade deal once Britain quits the EU. Britain is the second largest foreign investor in New Zealand and its fifth largest bilateral trading partner. It is also one of the global "five eyes" partners which share their security intelligence with the UK, along with the US, Canada and Australia. Image copyrightAP Image captionIt is Mr English's first visit to the UK since becoming prime minister last month Speaking at a press conference, Mr English said: "We're ready to negotiate a high quality free trade agreement with the UK when it's in a position to do so. "We already have a strong and diversified trading relationship with the UK and a free trade agreement will build on that... "We would hope that we could negotiate as soon as possible after the exit is completed. If the UK want to demonstrate that they can negotiate a high quality trade agreement, then New Zealand is the ideal partner for that." Mrs May said New Zealand is important to the UK because of its historic ties, its shared values and belief in free trade. "As two island nations we know that trade is essential to the prosperity of our countries and it's natural that we share a firm, deep-rooted belief in the power of free trade and open markets to drive economic progress and the importance of ensuring the benefits of growth are shared widely and fairly," she said. "While the UK remains in the EU we will work together to support an EU-New Zealand trade deal and we will also look to the future and how we can expand our trade and investment partnership... "In the longer term we agree on the potential for a bold, new UK-New Zealand free trade agreement and I look forward to starting early discussions on this in due course." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 29 minutes ago, davieG said: UK and New Zealand plan free trade deal after Brexit 13 January 2017 From the sectionUK Politics Share Image captionThe UK is already one of New Zealand's largest trade partners New Zealand hopes to negotiate a "high quality" free trade agreement with the UK once it leaves the EU, its prime minister Bill English has said. Following a meeting with Theresa May, he said he hoped this would happen "as soon as possible". Mrs May said both countries already enjoy a strong and growing trading relationship worth over £3bn last year. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox will be visiting New Zealand in the coming months, she said. Mrs May said her colleague would begin a bilateral dialogue between the two nations with the ultimate aim of striking a trade deal. Island nations The small Oceanic country of less than five million people is believed to be seen in government circles as one of the best prospects for an early trade deal once Britain quits the EU. Britain is the second largest foreign investor in New Zealand and its fifth largest bilateral trading partner. It is also one of the global "five eyes" partners which share their security intelligence with the UK, along with the US, Canada and Australia. Image copyrightAP Image captionIt is Mr English's first visit to the UK since becoming prime minister last month Speaking at a press conference, Mr English said: "We're ready to negotiate a high quality free trade agreement with the UK when it's in a position to do so. "We already have a strong and diversified trading relationship with the UK and a free trade agreement will build on that... "We would hope that we could negotiate as soon as possible after the exit is completed. If the UK want to demonstrate that they can negotiate a high quality trade agreement, then New Zealand is the ideal partner for that." Mrs May said New Zealand is important to the UK because of its historic ties, its shared values and belief in free trade. "As two island nations we know that trade is essential to the prosperity of our countries and it's natural that we share a firm, deep-rooted belief in the power of free trade and open markets to drive economic progress and the importance of ensuring the benefits of growth are shared widely and fairly," she said. "While the UK remains in the EU we will work together to support an EU-New Zealand trade deal and we will also look to the future and how we can expand our trade and investment partnership... "In the longer term we agree on the potential for a bold, new UK-New Zealand free trade agreement and I look forward to starting early discussions on this in due course." Cheaper legs of lamb, what's not too like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barky Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 12 hours ago, ajthefox said: Interesting reading given his predictions like you say. The thing I find a bit baffling is that in the same article, they say the pound hit a near 32 year low on Wednesday. Obviously the low pound is good for certain things but it's hardly a good sign generally speaking is it? No it's not and it's only the pound's collapse that has prevented more obvious damage across the wider economy. The full effects of the collapsed pound will become apparent over the next few years when inward investment has stabilised and the inflation has all fed through. I can't see any way that the outcome will be positive for most, unless you happen to be one of the few people who own a successful export business. If the cost of living starts to bite due to inflation then your poverty businesses like bookmakers, pawn shops, debt collectors and budget supermarkets will probably also do ok, but generally everything else will enter a downturn. The worst of it will be avoided if the government commits to investment in much needed infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of stimulating the economy and providing tangible assets that will help to improve productivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 1 hour ago, Strokes said: Cheaper legs of lamb, what's not too like? You're no patriot, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 34 minutes ago, Barky said: No it's not and it's only the pound's collapse that has prevented more obvious damage across the wider economy. The full effects of the collapsed pound will become apparent over the next few years when inward investment has stabilised and the inflation has all fed through. I can't see any way that the outcome will be positive for most, unless you happen to be one of the few people who own a successful export business. If the cost of living starts to bite due to inflation then your poverty businesses like bookmakers, pawn shops, debt collectors and budget supermarkets will probably also do ok, but generally everything else will enter a downturn. The worst of it will be avoided if the government commits to investment in much needed infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of stimulating the economy and providing tangible assets that will help to improve productivity. Inflation is predicted to rise to 3% it's hardly massive. We've had higher than that for most of my life, we're not all going to starve to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 40 minutes ago, Barky said: No it's not and it's only the pound's collapse that has prevented more obvious damage across the wider economy. The full effects of the collapsed pound will become apparent over the next few years when inward investment has stabilised and the inflation has all fed through. I can't see any way that the outcome will be positive for most, unless you happen to be one of the few people who own a successful export business. If the cost of living starts to bite due to inflation then your poverty businesses like bookmakers, pawn shops, debt collectors and budget supermarkets will probably also do ok, but generally everything else will enter a downturn. The worst of it will be avoided if the government commits to investment in much needed infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of stimulating the economy and providing tangible assets that will help to improve productivity. The pound can go back up you know. Just because it's dropped doesn't mean it has to stay low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 It's starting to look like we will certainly be enjoying some cake, just a question of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 3 minutes ago, Webbo said: Inflation is predicted to rise to 3% it's hardly massive. We've had higher than that for most of my life, we're not all going to starve to death. That's quite true. It will have a further impact on squeezed living standards, though, assuming wages don't also rise by 3% (which seems unlikely in such uncertain times). Might be short-term inflation, though. Then, there's what happens with interest rates in response. If they are kept low, as seems likely short-term, then most savers will be actually LOSING money in real terms - inflation will be higher than savings rates. If interest rates do rise, then we could see a rise in repossessions due to mortgage rates rising more than pay. "We're not all going to starve to death", as you say, but it could cause significant complications.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 46 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: That's quite true. It will have a further impact on squeezed living standards, though, assuming wages don't also rise by 3% (which seems unlikely in such uncertain times). Might be short-term inflation, though. Then, there's what happens with interest rates in response. If they are kept low, as seems likely short-term, then most savers will be actually LOSING money in real terms - inflation will be higher than savings rates. If interest rates do rise, then we could see a rise in repossessions due to mortgage rates rising more than pay. "We're not all going to starve to death", as you say, but it could cause significant complications.... I thought the last cut in interest rate was a bit of a panic measure. I'm not sure a 0.25% cut is going to stimulate the economy that much anyway. It'll probably be raised a little this year, back to where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 27 minutes ago, Webbo said: I thought the last cut in interest rate was a bit of a panic measure. I'm not sure a 0.25% cut is going to stimulate the economy that much anyway. It'll probably be raised a little this year, back to where it was. You might be right. Most people were expecting more of a short-term downturn in investment, spending and confidence, so I suppose they had to react to that majority expectation. If the rise in inflation is short-lived (quite possible if the pound stabilises at a lower level, I presume), then it might not matter too much. It might just mean another brief hit to real pay and savings - tough for some, but not a mega-crisis. It'll be more destabilising if inflation stays higher for longer, though, and pay and savings rates don't also rise.... Who knows? Unpredictable times to a large extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barky Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 3 hours ago, Webbo said: Inflation is predicted to rise to 3% it's hardly massive. We've had higher than that for most of my life, we're not all going to starve to death. I don't think we're all going to starve to death, but not starving to death doesn't constitute a successful outcome for me. Wages aren't going to increase by 3%, we'll be lucky if they raise by half that, so everyone on average is going to be that bit poorer and for those already struggling (household debt at record levels) that could push them over the edge. With little to nothing in the way of tangible benefit in return, it seems to me that we've shot ourselves in the foot in pretty much the exact way that the "doomsayers" predicted before. Obviously some people were going overboard predicting all sorts of trouble, but most were saying we'd take a modest hit, and that's exactly what it looks like is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barky Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 3 hours ago, Innovindil said: The pound can go back up you know. Just because it's dropped doesn't mean it has to stay low. The value is based broadly on fundamental analysis so won't just go back up for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 14 January 2017 Share Posted 14 January 2017 1 hour ago, Barky said: The value is based broadly on fundamental analysis so won't just go back up for no reason. It will inch back up for every trade agreement we sign, of which, there should/could be a few worked out early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barky Posted 15 January 2017 Share Posted 15 January 2017 Big week coming up then with May looking set to imply hard brexit is a go. Hammond threatening that we'll become a low tax haven. Probably a sensible move but what I'm interested in is how much further the pound will fall in the next two days. I'm expecting another 3-5% against the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 15 January 2017 Share Posted 15 January 2017 1 hour ago, Barky said: Big week coming up then with May looking set to imply hard brexit is a go. Hammond threatening that we'll become a low tax haven. Probably a sensible move but what I'm interested in is how much further the pound will fall in the next two days. I'm expecting another 3-5% against the dollar. 'Hard' such an abrasive term, Prefer clean Brexit personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 15 January 2017 Share Posted 15 January 2017 1 minute ago, The Guvnor said: 'Hard' such an abrasive term, Prefer clean Brexit personally. I prefer stiff brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bovril Posted 15 January 2017 Share Posted 15 January 2017 1 hour ago, Strokes said: I prefer stiff brexit. Sounds like a Richard Desmond publication. 9 Out of 10 Housewives love a STIFF BREXIT in the Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 15 January 2017 Share Posted 15 January 2017 3 minutes ago, bovril said: Sounds like a Richard Desmond publication. 9 Out of 10 Housewives love a STIFF BREXIT in the Morning. Erectxit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 16 January 2017 Share Posted 16 January 2017 IMF upgrades forecast for UK growth in 2017 from 1.1% to 1.5%. Expects UK growth in 2016 to be 2%, up from 1.8%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.