Alf Bentley Posted 16 January 2017 Share Posted 16 January 2017 23 hours ago, Barky said: Big week coming up then with May looking set to imply hard brexit is a go. Hammond threatening that we'll become a low tax haven. The threat is that we'll become a low CORPORATE tax haven - not necessarily a low tax nation for Joe Public. Though there's always the potential for funding Corporation Tax cuts by further cuts in public spending....the Tories would just hate to do that, of course. 20 hours ago, bovril said: Sounds like a Richard Desmond publication. 9 Out of 10 Housewives love a STIFF BREXIT in the Morning. Well, I think we're all going to get a shafting. Whether it is a hard shafting, a clean shafting, a stiff shafting or an erect shafting is of marginal importance to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 16 January 2017 Share Posted 16 January 2017 12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: The threat is that we'll become a low CORPORATE tax haven - not necessarily a low tax nation for Joe Public. Though there's always the potential for funding Corporation Tax cuts by further cuts in public spending....the Tories would just hate to do that, of course. It's more a case we make Europe think we'll be prepared to do that if they intend to give us a punishment beating. Even if we won't be. Bluffing is a part of any negotiation and we'll both be doing our fair share in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 16 January 2017 Share Posted 16 January 2017 36 minutes ago, MattP said: IMF upgrades forecast for UK growth in 2017 from 1.1% to 1.5%. Expects UK growth in 2016 to be 2%, up from 1.8%. Hmmm, those pesky experts making their forecasts again? Wasn't the IMF among those predicting more serious short-term problems? Any reason why its forecasts are likely to be any more accurate this time? I'd have thought that there's very little that we can yet say with any degree of certainty. We can maybe say: - Most economic consequences (good or bad) will be slow-moving and likely to take at least 1-2 years to unravel (unless the likely outcome (good or bad) of Brexit negotiations becomes clear early on...which seems unlikely) - We're likely to get some price inflation (but maybe not pay inflation) this year - The pound may fall a bit more, particularly against the dollar, but possibly not a massive amount more - If interest rates rise at all, they probably won't rise much - The economy of most of the Eurozone, apart from Germany, will remain pretty stagnant - The European economy could become even more turbulent than the UK economy, depending on events (Italian banks, French election, Russian interference in German election, migrant flows etc.) - Some UK firms will delay investing due to uncertainty (barring unexpected clarity in the Brexit negotiations) - Many people in the UK will continue to feel insecure and skint - Some people in the UK will become increasingly frustrated at the slow progress of Brexit, which could turn to anger and increased support for UKIP or other nationalists Apart from that, most stuff cannot be accurately forecast, can it? Not until we know the nature of the post-Brexit settlement (might take 2 years) and the outcome of events in France, Italy & Germany (possibly even the US, if Trump is radical)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 16 January 2017 Share Posted 16 January 2017 Nope, all we know is it will be wrong. By how much we don't know. It's nice to see them being a bit more optimistic though. Hopefully now we can start to not take everything as gospel we hear from economists though, it's long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Speech in half an hour from May, expected to confirm we'll be heading for a proper/full/hard/clean Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 16 minutes ago, MattP said: Speech in half an hour from May, expected to confirm we'll be heading for a proper/full/hard/clean Brexit shafting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Very good speech Mrs May, she has outlined pretty much what I voted for. Thank god she isn't trying some half in half out messy arrangement which would be a nightmare to negotiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxy boxing Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 May the force be with her! leading the British rebels against the European empire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 1 minute ago, foxy boxing said: May the force be with her! leading the British rebels against the European empire! as a remainer i can get behind this idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Pound going up, 1.225 against dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Just now, MattP said: Pound going up, 1.225 against dollar. With trump on friday i would expect this to go up further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lgfualol Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Doesn't matter what the evil woman says, by the time they've figured out how to do a Brexit without dooming us all, the sea levels will rise and doom us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 6 minutes ago, MattP said: Pound going up, 1.225 against dollar. Yes, a lot of depression of the pound was from uncertainty. Also remember that the dollar is likely to fall against other currencies if the US continues to struggle economically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Also, the fact she said she is willing to walk away is encouraging. I assume if the parliament rejects to new deal it will result in no deal and leaving on WTO terms. This will encourage the Tory remainers to toe the government position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 I liked it, make the threat to Europe regarding taxation real if they want to punish us and make it very clear we'll walk away rather than take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMX11 Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Just now, MattP said: I liked it, make the threat to Europe regarding taxation real if they want to punish us and make it very clear we'll walk away rather than take it. I think it is a veiled threat with the intention to make the EU realise that it cannot punish us as it would make them look bad and in reality make us both worse off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 I do get the feeling more and more than May was undecided in the campaign and that was probably why she took such a back seat. An absolute exhibition today in how to approach a negotiation, push your strong points whilst reminding those who you are going to sit down at the table that you can hurt them if they intend to hurt you, I'm a little embarrassed I fell for Cameron in thinking he could do negotiate any sort of reform, what a complete contrast in attitudes, I fully expect a contrast now in outcome as well. Be interesting to see the polls next week, she should sweep up some of that 10-12% of the remaining UKIP vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 On 1/15/2017 at 17:04, Barky said: Big week coming up then with May looking set to imply hard brexit is a go. Hammond threatening that we'll become a low tax haven. Probably a sensible move but what I'm interested in is how much further the pound will fall in the next two days. I'm expecting another 3-5% against the dollar. Oops Great speech by May in all fairness, pretty much exactly what I wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bovril Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 I can't help feel all this debate about rising and falling pounds is somewhat missing the post-Brexit point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 7 minutes ago, bovril said: I can't help feel all this debate about rising and falling pounds is somewhat missing the post-Brexit point. It wasn't a debate point from me, was just poking fun at negative barky over there. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpe's Fox Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Glad we're done with the bankers club in Brussels. They'll be more teary eyes in Davos tonight than anywhere in this country. Only thing we make sure we do now is not offer up what remains of the welfare state up on an plate as a appetiser to any businesses that don't pay tax anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benji Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 Good speech to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barky Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 4 hours ago, Innovindil said: Oops Great speech by May in all fairness, pretty much exactly what I wanted to hear. Yep fair play, that's why I'm not a currency trader. In hindsight it was too obvious, the big money was probably aware of May's planned approach weeks ago so the markets had already taken action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 2 hours ago, Barky said: Yep fair play, that's why I'm not a currency trader. In hindsight it was too obvious, the big money was probably aware of May's planned approach weeks ago so the markets had already taken action. It's been obvious this was the course of action for a while, May was consistent in saying we won't compromise border control to be in the single market, the people saying there was no plan were just desperate to believe it as they didn't like the plan. The idea of giving parliament the vote on it a bit strange though, it's either rubber stamp the hard Brexit we negotiate or leave with no deal, which is probably an even harder Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 17 January 2017 Share Posted 17 January 2017 16 minutes ago, MattP said: It's been obvious this was the course of action for a while, May was consistent in saying we won't compromise border control to be in the single market, the people saying there was no plan were just desperate to believe it as they didn't like the plan. The idea of giving parliament the vote on it a bit strange though, it's either rubber stamp the hard Brexit we negotiate or leave with no deal, which is probably an even harder Brexit. That's the ace up the sleeve though, two choices of a similar nature and complies with this nonsense hatchet plan. She has won me over, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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