Brexit Discussion Thread.

[BlueSi13]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Needless to say, the continental press were less impressed..... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/18/jean-claude-juncker-says-brexit-talks-will-be-very-very-very-difficult

 

“Little Britain – May leads Britain into isolation,” was the front-page headline in Germany’s Die Welt, while Italy’s La Repubblica opted for: “Brexit: London puts up its wall – out of EU and single market.”

 

Even more outspoken was Der Spiegel, which summarised May’s negotiating stance as “I want, I want, I want". In an article also published in English, the magazine’s UK correspondent said Britain’s plans amounted to “wilful self-mutilation”.

May “promised her country a glorious future” but has little control over it, he said. She will have to offer her allies more than graciously “allowing them to export prosecco and cars” to the UK. “She needs Europe. Adjectives alone won’t help her,” Scheuerman wrote.

El País, Spain’s biggest-selling daily paper, was equally scathing, saying in an editorial that May had set out “a road map for a complete British self-exclusion from the EU” and a “hard, extreme and extremist Brexit”.

The paper said this marked “a radical change of position” from May’s “timid, bashful Europeanism” as home secretary, to support for a “shameful, xenophobic nationalism”. The promise of a positive agreement was fallacious, it said.

For Spain’s ABC, the headline was: “May threatens EU with trade war,” while Denmark’s Politiken said May’s speech marked the moment the British “slam the door hard shut on the EU”.

Le Monde said in an editorial Brexit would be hard “... for the British”.

 

"We are UK, super UK. No-one likes us. We don't care!" 

To be fair they were never going to write anything else!  But I presume none of them watched the speech.  The PM talked endlessly about about free trade and beginning a new prosperous relationship, one that will be of benefit to the EU and to the UK.  

 

Doesn't sound like we're the ones putting up the walls at all 

[Barky]

23 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

There is one direct quote of:

 

"We will move in about two years time when Brexit becomes effective," HSBC's Gulliver told Reuters at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

 

Context? Full transcript? Did the quote start with "If we decide to move staff"? 

 

It's literally a cherry picked line for maximum shock value, that's it. 

 

And about empty head offices. They said they will move 1000 staff. They currently have 5000 working here. Do the other 4k just **** off then? 

 

You are either incredibly naive, or couldn't be arsed to read the whole thing. 

 

Banks will NOT spend money moving staff until it becomes a certainty that they have to waste the money doing so. They even said it would be in 2 years time, meaning at the end of negotiations. So for now, it's complete posturing, and very little else. 

I think it's pretty obvious when the man says "we will move when brexit becomes effective", he means they will move when brexit becomes effective. There's nothing ambiguous about it at all. You're blindly guessing that he might have been taken out of context and you're wrong. He meant exactly what he said.

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Barky said:

I think it's pretty obvious when the man says "we will move when brexit becomes effective", he means they will move when brexit becomes effective. There's nothing ambiguous about it at all. You're blindly guessing that he might have been taken out of context and you're wrong. He meant exactly what he said.

Show me his full speech and I'll feel more inclined to believe you.

[Barky]

Just now, Innovindil said:

Show me his full speech and I'll feel more inclined to believe you.

It's not really up to me to disprove your theory that Reuters has taken his comments out of context for "maximum shock value". Nonetheless  I did look on YouTube for the full interview but it doesn't seem to be up yet. You can use google to find other articles which quote various parts of the interview and if you put it all together it's clear that he meant what he said. Here's one for starters:

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-hsbc-bank-move-20-per-cent-fifth-london-banking-operations-paris-chief-executive-a7532711.html%3Famp?client=safari

[Innovindil]

36 minutes ago, Barky said:

It's not really up to me to disprove your theory that Reuters has taken his comments out of context for "maximum shock value". Nonetheless  I did look on YouTube for the full interview but it doesn't seem to be up yet. You can use google to find other articles which quote various parts of the interview and if you put it all together it's clear that he meant what he said. Here's one for starters:

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-hsbc-bank-move-20-per-cent-fifth-london-banking-operations-paris-chief-executive-a7532711.html%3Famp?client=safari

Gulliver said HSBC will “proceed quite slowly” after May confirmed Tuesday that Britain will leave the European Union’s single market. He repeated his pre-Brexit estimate that 1,000 jobs at the bank’s offices in London are involved with products covered by EU legislation, which probably need to move to France when the UK leaves the single market.

 

/Yawn.

 

Same shit, different words. Probably need to move?

 

Maybe? Possibly? 

 

They will "proceed quite slowly"? Of course. Until it becomes CERTAIN that they HAVE to move. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, BlueSi13 said:

To be fair they were never going to write anything else!  But I presume none of them watched the speech.  The PM talked endlessly about about free trade and beginning a new prosperous relationship, one that will be of benefit to the EU and to the UK.  

 

Doesn't sound like we're the ones putting up the walls at all 

Withdrawing from the single market is now extremist, shameful and means a xenophobic little Britain, I think I've heard it all now.

 

Complete and utter lunatics.

 

 

[Strokes]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Withdrawing from the single market is now extremist, shameful and means a xenophobic little Britain, I think I've heard it all now.

 

Complete and utter lunatics.

 

 

They've tried everything else, it's back to basics. Call the fúckers racist until they concede or until nobody plays with them.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Strokes said:

They've tried everything else, it's back to basics. Call the fúckers racist until they concede or until nobody plays with them.

Yep, appears to be the plan, problem is it's not 2005 anymore where that sort of thing worked.

 

 

[Strokes]

Just now, MattP said:

Yep, appears to be the plan, problem is it's not 2005 anymore where that sort of thing worked.

 

 

It doesn't have to work, but they can now hate us and take the high road. It's the only option, they can't reason with us, we are just too thick.

[Guest MattP]

The Sun have helpfully chipped in as well, taking the front page to the German embassy tonight.

 

[Strokes]

Just now, MattP said:

The Sun have helpfully chipped in as well, taking the front page to the German embassy tonight.

 

Oh that'll ease tensions.

[ajthefox]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

Behave, people are just trying to be offended now, it was a witty, amusing little metaphor, had anyone said it but Boris it wouldn't have even made the news, let alone bury it.

Michael? Is that you?? I didn't realise you were a Leicester fan....

 

On a more serious note I think it's delusional to suggest anyone else saying this wouldn't have even made the news. Yes it gets more air because it's Borris but frankly, I highly doubt anyone else would make such a joke. You might think it's funny but what actually matters is the reception of it across the channel. I support sending a strong message out and showing that we mean business but we shouldn't be antagonising the EU.

 

They may be turning these negotiations into a dick swinging contest and trying to punish us (which I think says a huge amount about the EU and has certainly opened my eyes since the vote) but why can't Boris, just for once, be a bit more tactful and not act like he's back in the playground at Eton trying to score points in a "who can make the most obscure, historically referenced joke" competition. We don't need his bullshit persona in these negotiations any more than United need Depay.

[Barky]

8 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Gulliver said HSBC will “proceed quite slowly” after May confirmed Tuesday that Britain will leave the European Union’s single market. He repeated his pre-Brexit estimate that 1,000 jobs at the bank’s offices in London are involved with products covered by EU legislation, which probably need to move to France when the UK leaves the single market.

 

/Yawn.

 

Same shit, different words. Probably need to move?

 

Maybe? Possibly? 

 

They will "proceed quite slowly"? Of course. Until it becomes CERTAIN that they HAVE to move. 

 

 

This is ridiculous. The man himself is saying again and again that they "will" move 20% of their workforce out of the uk and you're repeatedly choosing to ignore it. They're moving, get over it. You wanted Britain out of the eu, don't expect the massive wealth generating industry of eu specific financial services to want to stay here. They're the first to officially state that many jobs will be leaving but they won't be the last. The only hope is that the government give them enough of our money to convince them to keep the rest of their operations here.

[Innovindil]

1 hour ago, Barky said:

This is ridiculous. The man himself is saying again and again that they "will" move 20% of their workforce out of the uk and you're repeatedly choosing to ignore it. They're moving, get over it. You wanted Britain out of the eu, don't expect the massive wealth generating industry of eu specific financial services to want to stay here. They're the first to officially state that many jobs will be leaving but they won't be the last. The only hope is that the government give them enough of our money to convince them to keep the rest of their operations here.

I'm not choosing to ignore anything, I am choosing to not give a crap about bankers leaving. 

 

What does bother me, is you have came in here, preaching more nonsense without even reading the words of a story. It says will PROBABLY need to move. Yes, PROBABLY. There is a big chance they will go, but don't come in here with one story, with one quote, and tell me that them moving is absolutely set in stone, because it's a load of bollocks. YOU are choosing to ignore the wording of the entire article to make it sound concrete, which it isn't. ANYTHING can happen in the next 2 years, they won't spend money until it becomes clear they must. 

 

Talk about ridiculous. 

[Alf Bentley]

10 hours ago, MattP said:

Withdrawing from the single market is now extremist, shameful and means a xenophobic little Britain, I think I've heard it all now.

 

Complete and utter lunatics.

 

 

 

Clarification: I posted the continental press quotes to show that the continental reaction was very different to the positive response of the British press, not because I agree with everything they say. In my experience, the French are more xenophobic than the British, other West Europeans pretty similar to us. And I'd describe Brexit as counter-productive, short-sighted and insular, not xenophobic (a term I'd reserve for the properly racist minority - people with a BNP/EDL mentality).

 

I'd guess that the stronger criticisms were triggered not by the UK leaving the single market, but by May prioritising the reduction of national immigration, threatening to undermine Europe by becoming an offshore tax haven and having what they perceive to be unrealistic expectations (complete control of immigration with a good Brexit deal including generous access to the single market). 

 

Much of the difference in the response is rooted in the historic difference in how the EU has been viewed in the UK, compared to the rest of Europe. Criticism of the EU in other countries is at an all-time high now, due to economic stagnation and other issues, but over decades there has always been a strong majority acceptance of the EU as a joint project for the common good. Countries might have criticised particular policies, but they supported the common goal - very strongly in many cases. Even when the EU had strong majority support in the UK, that support was from a national perspective: the EU used to be seen as in the British national interest, not as a joint project to which we were committed.

 

 

9 hours ago, Strokes said:

They've tried everything else, it's back to basics. Call the fúckers racist until they concede or until nobody plays with them.

 

Clarification: It was the continental press who made these comments, not politicians. Continental politicians mainly seem to have been quite guarded in their response, several welcoming the greater clarity of the UK position, even if they don't agree with it.

 

The continental press can't force a UK Govt to concede or prevent anybody playing with them. They are just expressing an editorial view - one that they presumably feel will be shared by most of their readers, the continental public. 

[Barky]

1 hour ago, Innovindil said:

I'm not choosing to ignore anything, I am choosing to not give a crap about bankers leaving. 

 

What does bother me, is you have came in here, preaching more nonsense without even reading the words of a story. It says will PROBABLY need to move. Yes, PROBABLY. There is a big chance they will go, but don't come in here with one story, with one quote, and tell me that them moving is absolutely set in stone, because it's a load of bollocks. YOU are choosing to ignore the wording of the entire article to make it sound concrete, which it isn't. ANYTHING can happen in the next 2 years, they won't spend money until it becomes clear they must. 

 

Talk about ridiculous. 

The journalist has written probably. The man himself has said categorically jobs will be leaving. Which to believe? The guy who is actually responsible for making that decision or the journalist who is nothing to do with the company whatsoever. Not a difficult one is it?

 

It's up to you whether or not you care about financial services leaving. I think the revenues they generate are vital to our economy and we'd struggle without them.

[Guest MattP]

53 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Clarification: I posted the continental press quotes to show that the continental reaction was very different to the positive response of the British press, not because I agree with everything they say. In my experience, the French are more xenophobic than the British, other West Europeans pretty similar to us. And I'd describe Brexit as counter-productive, short-sighted and insular, not xenophobic (a term I'd reserve for the properly racist minority - people with a BNP/EDL mentality).

No need for the clarification, I realised that wasn't your personal opinion 

 

I have been interested in the comments from the EU politicians, they are certainly more reserved than they were after the referendum, I think May has taken them a little bit by surprise, I still think they didn't really believe this is happening and they were fully expecting us to come to the table with a demand to our cake and eat it ie be full single marker members with changes to the four freedoms.

 

 

 

Quite an extended set of polls from Yougov out today, the public are firmly behind the Prime Minister on this, she should carry being as tough as possible.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/

 

Voting Intention - CON 42% LAB 25% LD 11% UKIP 12% OTH 9%

 

No Bregrets – after May's speech 46% still say UK was right to vote to leave the EU, 42% say we were wrong,.

 

 62% of people think May’s Brexit deal respects the outcome of the referendum while 13% think's it doesn't (Even remainers score this as a majority to the PM by 56% to 19%) - This is a big one for me given the arguments over whether she has the mandate to take us out the single market, Tim Farron might find he has a lot less support on this than he thinks.

 

 

 

This one is very interesting given the comments yesterday of some leave voters wanting "wanting less foreigners" here, if it is true it's clearly not many as 76% of them want the Prime Minister to guarantee the rights of foreign born citizens already living here (only 9% down on remainers) whilst most remain voters also believe Britain must have control over immigration from EU countries.

 

[Guest MattP]

Further to the comment about EU politicians, the high priest of it all, Guy Verhofstadt has written an article in The Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/not-punish-britain-shed-illusions-eu-fair-deal

 

Far, far more concilatory than his comments after the actual vote and even saying he'll now give us a "fair deal", the most interesting line in the whole piece is that he firmly believe both Trump and Putin now actively seek to break up the European Union, which is a pretty serious claim, this can only play in our favour once negotiations start, if Marie Le Pen does win, which I still think is unlikely, it's leave the EU's defence under nothing more than a fractured NATO with the three countries holding nuclear protection openly in conflict with it.

The incoming US presidency coinciding with out withdrawal could be the best thing that ever happened to us, I get the feeling Clinton would have absolutely sold us down the river like Obama would have.

[bovril]

15 minutes ago, MattP said:

The incoming US presidency coinciding with out withdrawal could be the best thing that ever happened to us, I get the feeling Clinton would have absolutely sold us down the river like Obama would have.

Could look at it like that.

You could also say leaving the World's largest trading block during the administration of the most openly anti-free trade president in recent history might not be the smartest move. 

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Quite an extended set of polls from Yougov out today, the public are firmly behind the Prime Minister on this, she should carry being as tough as possible.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/

 

Voting Intention - CON 42% LAB 25% LD 11% UKIP 12% OTH 9%

 

No Bregrets – after May's speech 46% still say UK was right to vote to leave the EU, 42% say we were wrong,.

 

 62% of people think May’s Brexit deal respects the outcome of the referendum while 13% think's it doesn't (Even remainers score this as a majority to the PM by 56% to 19%) - This is a big one for me given the arguments over whether she has the mandate to take us out the single market, Tim Farron might find he has a lot less support on this than he thinks.

 

This one is very interesting given the comments yesterday of some leave voters wanting "wanting less foreigners" here, if it is true it's clearly not many as 76% of them want the Prime Minister to guarantee the rights of foreign born citizens already living here (only 9% down on remainers) whilst most remain voters also believe Britain must have control over immigration from EU countries.

 

 

All interesting stuff, though opinions will only become meaningful when we see the reality: how negotiations go, what sort of deal emerges, what happens to the economy, what happens with immigration etc.

Little movement of opinion so far, really.

 

- The "respects result of referendum" question is an odd one. I fundamentally disagree with May's priorities yet I'd probably have to say that they respect the result of the referendum. The result said that we should leave the EU - and that is being respected. How we should leave the EU was never clearly specified so my fundamental disagreement is over post-referendum policy, really, not any failure to respect the result of the referendum.

- That said, the biggest divide is clearly over the single market/customs union: almost 2/3 of Remainers oppose leaving the single market/customs union, and about 1/4 or 1/5 of Leave voters. Those figures are already quite high, but I'd expect them to rise much more if the economy deteriorates and/or no good deal is on the horizon.

- The response to the Irish border question is a bit worrying: 1/3 Leave voters and 1/5 Remain voters want to get rid of the open border?! Hopefully May is sincere in her intent to retain an open border; a return to conflict/terrorism is the last thing we need.

- I'm less optimistic than you about the "rights of EU citizens in UK" question: 1/4 Brexiters & 3/20 Remainers don't want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK, even in exchange for the rights of UK citizens in the EU? Plus, I'd expect that figure to rise, in practice, if there was no visible reduction in the number of foreigners here & no improvement in living standards. Mind you, it's another vague question: what rights? for which EU citizens? Would we guarantee lifelong residency to someone here for a couple of months to pick spuds?

- Even the immigration question is a bit unclear. Does "control" mean "some control" or "complete control". Certainly if it was the former, I'd be in favour of that myself in the current circumstances (i.e. without a major reform of the EU). 

[Alf Bentley]

36 minutes ago, MattP said:

Further to the comment about EU politicians, the high priest of it all, Guy Verhofstadt has written an article in The Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/not-punish-britain-shed-illusions-eu-fair-deal

 

Far, far more concilatory than his comments after the actual vote and even saying he'll now give us a "fair deal", the most interesting line in the whole piece is that he firmly believe both Trump and Putin now actively seek to break up the European Union, which is a pretty serious claim, this can only play in our favour once negotiations start, if Marie Le Pen does win, which I still think is unlikely, it's leave the EU's defence under nothing more than a fractured NATO with the three countries holding nuclear protection openly in conflict with it.

The incoming US presidency coinciding with out withdrawal could be the best thing that ever happened to us, I get the feeling Clinton would have absolutely sold us down the river like Obama would have.

 

The belief that Trump and Putin want to break up the EU could also encourage a more hard-line Brexit negotiating stance by the EU, to avoid any other nations being tempted to follow suit.

 

Like you, I don't expect Le Pen to win (though it might be closer with Fillon as main rival than with Juppé or Sarkozy). If Fillon wins, NATO would still have France as a nuclear power, even if Trump pulled out (I doubt he'd do that - though he might demand that other countries make bigger contributions). I don't think that it would be a good idea for us to threaten conflict with NATO and with our main neighbours, allies and trading partners. To do so while relying on two ruthless, self-interested nationalists like Trump and Putin would be complete madness. We might have a few nukes, but we're not the mighty British Empire anymore. We're a medium-sized power as regards both trade and military. Isolation in turbulent times would be a bad, bad idea.

 

Trump might be quite favourably disposed to the UK - but only insofar as it suits US interests and his personal interests. If we were prepared to completely subjugate British interests to American interests, I'm sure we'd get on just fine with him. But I wouldn't want us to be America's poodle under any president, never mind under an unpredictable nationalist/populist like Trump. I find it weird how so many Brexiters fiercely want the UK to be independent of the EU, but are almost begging to become lackies of the USA.

[Barky]

So 1 in 4 brexiters are in no doubt that they want existing eu immigrants to not be given staying rights and almost every single brexiter demands full border control and yet we're supposed to carry on pretending that foreigners aren't the main issue.

 

What planet is this? Seriously.

[Jon the Hat]

• The value of trade to the UK and the rest of the EU—we exported about £220 billion worth of goods and services to the rest of the EU in 2015, according to UK data, while the rest of the EU exported somewhere around £290 billion to us. These figures differ if you use EU data. What this means is that the rest of the EU sells more to us than we sell to it.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ 

 

Tariffs will hurt the EU more that it hurts us in absolute terms (although not in % terms).  Assuming we matched tariff % the EU imposed, we would be able to soend tariffs we raise on imports on subsidising exports.  So what is the impact on our sales in Europe if the government were to pay you a % on top of what you sell for, so you can price match.  Anyone?

 

It wouldnt happen though, becuase it makes no sense to impose tariffs on UK - EU trade.  Meanwhile, the EU will revert to a free trade area in the next decade.

[Strokes]

21 minutes ago, Barky said:

So 1 in 4 brexiters are in no doubt that they want existing eu immigrants to not be given staying rights and almost every single brexiter demands full border control and yet we're supposed to carry on pretending that foreigners aren't the main issue.

 

What planet is this? Seriously.

Controlled border doesn't mean less, it means we can pick the best candidates to enrich our society/workforce. You wouldn't put an advert out for a job and say first to turn up gets it.

 

You said it yourself, the polish only bring over plumbers or similar trades, we can invest in our low achieving school leavers or unemployed to fill those positions, pretty quickly.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The belief that Trump and Putin want to break up the EU could also encourage a more hard-line Brexit negotiating stance by the EU, to avoid any other nations being tempted to follow suit.

 

Like you, I don't expect Le Pen to win (though it might be closer with Fillon as main rival than with Juppé or Sarkozy). If Fillon wins, NATO would still have France as a nuclear power, even if Trump pulled out (I doubt he'd do that - though he might demand that other countries make bigger contributions). I don't think that it would be a good idea for us to threaten conflict with NATO and with our main neighbours, allies and trading partners. To do so while relying on two ruthless, self-interested nationalists like Trump and Putin would be complete madness. We might have a few nukes, but we're not the mighty British Empire anymore. We're a medium-sized power as regards both trade and military. Isolation in turbulent times would be a bad, bad idea.

 

Trump might be quite favourably disposed to the UK - but only insofar as it suits US interests and his personal interests. If we were prepared to completely subjugate British interests to American interests, I'm sure we'd get on just fine with him. But I wouldn't want us to be America's poodle under any president, never mind under an unpredictable nationalist/populist like Trump. I find it weird how so many Brexiters fiercely want the UK to be independent of the EU, but are almost begging to become lackies of the USA.

If they try to batter the wife because she wants a divorce then that's probably just as risky as giving us a good deal, maybe more, history tells us that any political union held together by fear isn't one that manages to last, I'm certain they know that.

 

I fully agree any reliance on Putin and Trump (or Le Pen) would be madness, but as I say, if their (often ugly) politics does play into our hands it would be foolish not to make the most of it given where we find ourselves in, the enemy of your enemy in poliics has always been used to gain advantageous positions.

 

I don't think anyone had said they want to be a poodle to America, we saw enough of that to last us a lifetime under the last Labour government, but if they are open to a trade deal and to work with us then of course we should, despite the distance we have far more in common with places like America, Australia and Canada than we do with Europe.

 

41 minutes ago, Barky said:

So 1 in 4 brexiters are in no doubt that they want existing eu immigrants to not be given staying rights and almost every single brexiter demands full border control and yet we're supposed to carry on pretending that foreigners aren't the main issue.

 

What planet is this? Seriously.

And 1 in 6 remainers don't forget, the racist bastards.