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DJ Barry Hammond

Brexit Discussion Thread.

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It's like everyone rational thinking has gone on holiday, I'm not throwing my toys out of the pram because David Cameron hasn't declared war on half the world (or even triggered article 50 for that matter) or because George Osbourne hasn't fùcked the pensioners yet and these are people who can implement their 'pledges'.

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Unfortunately yes. 

 

The current PM has said it'll be activated by the next PM, probably around October. All this faux panic and outrage is pathetic tbh.

 

Surely that doesn't stop Boris outlining the plan he had when he insisted people leave the EU.

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You can't reduce immigration anytime soon, we all know it will take at least 2 years to detach ourselves from Brussels and until then we have to abide by the freedom of movement act. Then there will have to be systems put in place, it could take quite some time. The NHS was laughed at from the start, widely discredited, isn't Farages example to rebuff and anyone voting on that alone I have no time for.

 

 

I agree with what you say about immigration - but a lot of people will have voted Leave on the expectation that it will be reduced significantly and soon. The Vote Leave campaign didn't go out of its way to discourage that impression, and followed Farage in spending most of the last fortnight talking about the need to "control immigration" as it knew that it would gain votes as a result. You might be smart and interested enough to know the difference between "controlling" and "cutting" immigration, but many people will have voted Brexit to cut immigration. That's storing up a lot of anger for the future.

 

The NHS claim may have been "discredited" in the eyes of the liberal elite like you and me ( :ph34r:), but Vote Leave campaign vehicles continued to feature prominently displaying that lie - again, that's storing up more future anger and disillusionment, which could be very destructive, unless the Govt find a way of allocating extra funds to the NHS....at a time when they might have less funds anyway, if there's any sort of an economic downturn (highly likely). 

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I agree with what you say about immigration - but a lot of people will have voted Leave on the expectation that it will be reduced significantly and soon. The Vote Leave campaign didn't go out of its way to discourage that impression, and followed Farage in spending most of the last fortnight talking about the need to "control immigration" as it knew that it would gain votes as a result. You might be smart and interested enough to know the difference between "controlling" and "cutting" immigration, but many people will have voted Brexit to cut immigration. That's storing up a lot of anger for the future.

The NHS claim may have been "discredited" in the eyes of the liberal elite like you and me ( :ph34r:), but Vote Leave campaign vehicles continued to feature prominently displaying that lie - again, that's storing up more future anger and disillusionment, which could be very destructive, unless the Govt find a way of allocating extra funds to the NHS....at a time when they might have less funds anyway, if there's any sort of an economic downturn (highly likely).

I think the only real anger on display for the time being is remainers throwing hissy fits, left, right and centre, and there are clearly as many on that side displaying a complete lack of political understanding. If Boris is to be elected he will have to throw the NHS a bone and I think he knows it.
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Guest MattP

Hysteria hasn't calmed down i see, I don't want to point out the obvious but I have to, Farage, Gove or Boris are not PM - they can't invoke article 50 or plough 350million a week into the NHS, if any of them take the role by all means pull them up on it when the time comes.

Speaking of big nosed liars though the Chancellor has just reappeared on television, no plans for an emergency budget? Who would have thought it?!!!!!!

For what it's worth I can see the ending of this being outside the EU but still in the single market with freedom of movement, how that will go down with the public I don't know, although whoever is in government they now know the public are demanding something is done about mass unrestricted immigration.

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Guest Col city fan

One of the many things that the 'remainers' have been 100% sure of is that 'petrol will go up immediately'

I filled my car up yesterday...and it was the same price as last week (1.07 per litre).

Am I losing my memory but didn't the price of fuel go up to between 1.30/1.40 per litre a few years back? The highest it's ever been? And I'm sure we were in the EU then.....

:thumbup:

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I'm not sure why people don't understand, they were not pledges. It wasn't an election for power, they were nothing more than examples of what could be achieved outside of the EU. The pledges will come with elections, you cannot implement things without the power to do so.

 

 

Again, you - and nearly everyone in this thread - understands that situation because they have an active interest in politics. Most people have no interest or only a superficial interest. An enormous number of people will just have received the message: "if we leave the EU, we can get rid of a lot of the immigrants and get more money spent on the NHS". I'm sure that's a very appealing message if your job situation is difficult and you blame immigration and if you're worried about the quality of NHS services available to your family. So the Brexit Tories will store up a lot of angry resentment if they renege on statements that were taken as pledges, even if they weren't.

 

Just seen your latest post: Yes, Boris may throw the NHS a bone. Let's hope there are still a few bones left and that the cupboard isn't bare - even fairly optimistic forecasters expect some sort of downturn in the economy/public finances.

 

I'm sure some disappointed Remainers are throwing hissy fits - as some of the losing side do in any political contest. I'm talking about the really dangerous anger that could become apparent months or years down the line, if immigration remains high and the NHS continues to struggle - I'm concerned that could lead to some seriously dark, anti-democratic places (democratic disengagement, social unrest, racial violence etc.).

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One of the many things that the 'remainers' have been 100% sure of is that 'petrol will go up immediately'

I filled my car up yesterday...and it was the same price as last week (1.07 per litre).

Am I losing my memory but didn't the price of fuel go up to between 1.30/1.40 per litre a few years back? The highest it's ever been? And I'm sure we were in the EU then.....

:thumbup:

If the pound keeps falling against the dollar there is no way the price won't go up, it obviously take a little time to filter through the system. We were never going to wake up with petrol suddenly costing £2.50.

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One of the many things that the 'remainers' have been 100% sure of is that 'petrol will go up immediately'

I filled my car up yesterday...and it was the same price as last week (1.07 per litre).

Am I losing my memory but didn't the price of fuel go up to between 1.30/1.40 per litre a few years back? The highest it's ever been? And I'm sure we were in the EU then.....

:thumbup:

 

 

Only extreme pessimists or purveyors of scare stories expected immediate disaster. Slowly accruing problems, possibly minor or possibly major is more likely. Though maybe everything will be a bed of roses - I'll be delighted if so.

 

Some people are still predicting imminent rises in petrol prices: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-3659815/Petrol-5p-litre-pound-slides-against-dollar-Brexit.html

The issue is the dollar/sterling exchange rate, as I understand it - that oil is bought in dollars, so costs more to petrol suppliers if sterling falls in value against the dollar (as it has been doing). We'll see!

 

Similarly, anyone expecting immediate mass redundancies was off their head. But already there are big firms talking about relocating significant numbers of jobs to the continent, based on the expectation that the UK will leave the single market.

Again, though, all the ripple effects (negative or positive) of the Brexit vote will take some time, and will depend on numerous factors: the global economy, policy stance of the UK Govt, attitude of the EU, what sort of UK/EU deal looks likely etc.

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So basically, everything we expected and could have hoped for. Sounds fine to me.

The other Euoropean nations will not ratify that deal, not in a million years. What he's asking for is a pipe dream.

 

If he thinks he's going to get one way freedom of movement, access to the single market, have to pay nothing in and get full control he's a bigger fool than I thought.

 

They won't approve it and he knows it.

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It's pointless now talking about what we will and won't get. The negotiations haven't started yet and they're going to take 2 years. Well get some of what we want and have to accept some things we don't.

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Again, you - and nearly everyone in this thread - understands that situation because they have an active interest in politics. Most people have no interest or only a superficial interest. An enormous number of people will just have received the message: "if we leave the EU, we can get rid of a lot of the immigrants and get more money spent on the NHS". I'm sure that's a very appealing message if your job situation is difficult and you blame immigration and if you're worried about the quality of NHS services available to your family. So the Brexit Tories will store up a lot of angry resentment if they renege on statements that were taken as pledges, even if they weren't.

 

Just seen your latest post: Yes, Boris may throw the NHS a bone. Let's hope there are still a few bones left and that the cupboard isn't bare - even fairly optimistic forecasters expect some sort of downturn in the economy/public finances.

 

I'm sure some disappointed Remainers are throwing hissy fits - as some of the losing side do in any political contest. I'm talking about the really dangerous anger that could become apparent months or years down the line, if immigration remains high and the NHS continues to struggle - I'm concerned that could lead to some seriously dark, anti-democratic places (democratic disengagement, social unrest, racial violence etc.).

Do you think we should be dumbing things down to their level? Both campaigns targeted the poorly educated with sound bites, and both were only using what would happen if we left to invoke fear or hope. Most of it was exaggerated to appeal to a certain portion of the population and the Leave side won. You and me know this, so shouldn't we just let the poorly educated, thick or not politically engaged actually form their own opinions? Instead of stoking the fire and assuming what they are thinking or preempting what they may think in the future? It just all seems a little presumptuous to get so angry about, when absolutely nothing of any note has even happened yet.

It's pointless now talking about what we will and won't get. The negotiations haven't started yet and they're going to take 2 years. Well get some of what we want and have to accept some things we don't.

:)

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Guest MattP

The Chancellor - "The pound is stable and the markets soon will be".

Project fear is over, aside from a few media outlets and the very strange people who want the nation to fail to they can be proved right.

Hopefully now the government (not vote leave) will now be producing a plan for the country to go forward after taking the decision it did, some people are almost forgetting that is their job.

Sturgeon sounding desperate now as well to "stay in the EU" via some back door deal, I think she knows she won't be able to sell applying for membership to the people.

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It's pointless now talking about what we will and won't get. The negotiations haven't started yet and they're going to take 2 years. Well get some of what we want and have to accept some things we don't.

Why is it pointless talking about it, I'd suggest now is a very good time to talk about it. Because if that's really what he wants, including without question access to the single market... then we might as well not bother. I can't see Europe backing down on anything, so we're just going to end up where we were... just without a say or any power in Europe.

 

We aren't going to get what most leavers voted on, if we want access to the single market it's going to be both ways freedom of movement. If Europe concedes to us, every man and his dog will want to leave or renegotiate a deal they already have.

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Can someone explain why the EU forces countries to have free movement for free trade? Why won't they allow countries to trade for free without the free movement anyway? Always seemed quite odd to me. 

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Why is it pointless talking about it, I'd suggest now is a very good time to talk about it. Because if that's really what he wants, including without question access to the single market... then we might as well not bother. I can't see Europe backing down on anything, so we're just going to end up where we were... just without a say or any power in Europe.

 

We aren't going to get what most leavers voted on, if we want access to the single market it's going to be both ways freedom of movement. If Europe concedes to us, every man and his dog will want to leave or renegotiate a deal they already have.

How do you what we're going to get? Saying what you'd like, fair enough but getting worked up about unsubstantiated assumptions is a bit silly imo.

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Do you think we should be dumbing things down to their level? Both campaigns targeted the poorly educated with sound bites, and both were only using what would happen if we left to invoke fear or hope. Most of it was exaggerated to appeal to a certain portion of the population and the Leave side won. You and me know this, so shouldn't we just let the poorly educated, thick or not politically engaged actually form their own opinions? Instead of stoking the fire and assuming what they are thinking or preempting what they may think in the future? It just all seems a little presumptuous to get so angry about, when absolutely nothing of any note has even happened yet.

:)

 

 

I'm concerned about the consequences rather than angry.

 

You're right that politicians always exaggerate and mislead to varying degrees, claiming they'll cut taxes and improve public services etc. But misleading people on fundamental issues in potentially difficult economic times is very dangerous. Of course, everything might work out OK. The economy might prosper, public finances might improve, we might cut a great deal with the EU and win loads of extra trade elsewhere, the NHS might improve and immigration might fall. Clearly, I'm dubious about that.

 

Something of note HAS happened - we've voted out of the EU. We just don't know the many and varied consequences of that yet, and whether they'll be good or bad. I'm concerned that they might be somewhere between a bit bad and utterly disastrous for this country....but my concerns might be misplaced. It's a bit like throwing an enormous boulder in a duck pond - "nothing of any note" may happen immediately, but you know things are going to happen in a while. It's perfectly reasonable to speculate about things that have yet to happen - whether that's the 2016-17 season for LCFC or the future state of the nation. Conversation isn't limited to past events.

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Guest Col city fan

If the pound keeps falling against the dollar there is no way the price won't go up, it obviously take a little time to filter through the system. We were never going to wake up with petrol suddenly costing £2.50.

My point was that remainers were convinced...'it will happen' etc..

None of us know what will happen yet really.

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How do you what we're going to get?

Do you really think all the other EU members are going to grant us something as huge as one way freedom of movement? Something that would appeal massively to lots of other countries and potentially put the whole lot at risk. If we're seen to get a great deal and something as huge as that, it's very bad for the future of the EU.

 

It's sort of like saying, how you you know we can't sign Ronaldo for £2.50. I don't, but it's massively massively unlikely with loads of very good reasons we won't and not many good reasons we would.

 

 

Saying what you'd like, fair enough but getting worked up about unsubstantiated assumptions is a bit silly imo.

I'm not getting worked, up... I'm discussing the rather large implications in the highly likely event that Boris does not get everything he wants.

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