Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Webbo]

Do you really think all the other EU members are going to grant us something as huge as one way freedom of movement? Something that would appeal massively to lots of other countries and potentially put the whole lot at risk. If we're seen to get a great deal and something as huge as that, it's very bad for the future of the EU.

 

It's sort of like saying, how you you know we can't sign Ronaldo for £2.50. I don't, but it's massively massively unlikely with loads of very good reasons we won't and not many good reasons we would.

 

 

I'm not getting worked, up... I'm discussing the rather large implications in the highly likely event that Boris does not get everything he wants.

German and French businesses are already lobbying for us not to be thrown out of the single market. We're too big a market for them to just dismiss us. We'll get a deal, maybe not everything we want but better off than where we are now.

[Strokes]

I'm concerned about the consequences rather than angry.

 

You're right that politicians always exaggerate and mislead to varying degrees, claiming they'll cut taxes and improve public services etc. But misleading people on fundamental issues in potentially difficult economic times is very dangerous. Of course, everything might work out OK. The economy might prosper, public finances might improve, we might cut a great deal with the EU and win loads of extra trade elsewhere, the NHS might improve and immigration might fall. Clearly, I'm dubious about that.

 

Something of note HAS happened - we've voted out of the EU. We just don't know the many and varied consequences of that yet, and whether they'll be good or bad. I'm concerned that they might be somewhere between a bit bad and utterly disastrous for this country....but my concerns might be misplaced. It's a bit like throwing an enormous boulder in a duck pond - "nothing of any note" may happen immediately, but you know things are going to happen in a while. It's perfectly reasonable to speculate about things that have yet to happen - whether that's the 2016-17 season for LCFC or the future state of the nation. Conversation isn't limited to past events.

The anger thing wasn't directed at you Alf, more a general observation from this thread and a little wider.

We haven't thrown the boulder in yet, we are have lifted over our heads and are shouting wánkers as loud as we can. Let's take a step back and actually decide amongst both sides the best deal for the country. Not everyone's going to get everything that they want but maybe most people could get something that they want. The free movement of people was not the biggest concern for me (I would still like to see it canned), I always stated that. I do think it suppresses wages and has an overall detrimental effect on society but nowhere near the levels that had been pushed by some.

If whoever wins the Tory leadership battle does indeed call a general election, it's really down to the people to decide on manifesto pledges how they intend to deal with the results of the referendum. It will take a brave party to pledge to ignore the result.

[reynard]

Completely agree, Essex.

 

Though some of the "U-turns" relate to the different priorities of the official (mainly Tory) Vote Leave campaign and the separate, Farage-led UKIP campaign.

 

It was Vote Leave (Boris, Gove & co) who repeatedly told the lie about redirecting £350m per week of EU contributions to the NHS. So, Farage isn't actually doing a U-turn by disowning that pledge - it was never his pledge.

In contrast, it was Farage who initially went big on immigration....though the official Vote Leave bunch were quite happy to go along with it, almost exclusively in the last fortnight, as they saw the polls turn in their favour.

 

I reckon we might see the 2 Brexit camps (Tories & UKIP) diverge along those lines again in due course. Because I really cannot see the EU doing a deal that allows the UK to opt out of free movement AND to stay in the single market - though many Brexit people seem to assume they will.

 

If I'm right, I can imagine the Tories prioritising trade relationships/single market and selling ex-Lab voters motivated by immigration down the river. Meanwhile, UKIP will oppose them and prioritise immigration. After all, the Tories don't really care too much about abandoned ex-Labour voters in deindustrialised areas with Labour MPs - whereas UKIP stands to benefit by attracting the votes of such people, who are disillusioned at their lives and hostile to "the elite" (Tory and Labour alike).

 

Farage isn't and hopefully will never be in a position to pledge anything. He's an unelected spokesman for a party which frankly no longer seems to have a purpose. Anyone who listened to him and took his words as a pledge really ought to ask themselves some serious questions. For  a man who complains repeatedly about unelected Euro bureaucrats this seems to be what he thinks he is only in Britain.

 

We now face two and a half years with a government basically unable to conduct the serious business required for running and "improving" the country whilst most parliamentary time will be taken up discussing the brexit terms and conditions in which the only sure fire winners will be the lawyers.

 

I completely agree with you on the chances of the EU accepting free trade without free movement and the fact that trade relationships will take priority over and above issues of immigration. Too many people were simply incapable of either trying, or simply intellectually incapable of being able, to understand the intricacies of the political debate and could only focus on single issues.

 

Still at least the middle/upper class white voters of rural Leicestershire, many of whom have probably never met an immigrant, will be able to have their tea parties and barbecues and wave their Union flags declaring how wonderful the empire was with the irony likely to be an outcome that sees the break up of their beloved United Kingdom.

[Strokes]

Well it tells me Boris is likely to get bent over and stuffed like a Christmas Turkey by Merkel.

It tells me that the freedom of movement act is massively unpopular all over the EU and really should be looked at and discussed by the council.

[Thracian]

Why is it pointless talking about it, I'd suggest now is a very good time to talk about it. Because if that's really what he wants, including without question access to the single market... then we might as well not bother. I can't see Europe backing down on anything, so we're just going to end up where we were... just without a say or any power in Europe.

 

We aren't going to get what most leavers voted on, if we want access to the single market it's going to be both ways freedom of movement. If Europe concedes to us, every man and his dog will want to leave or renegotiate a deal they already have.

 

 

And if they don't change their free movement policy the EU will implode. In the end the pressures will become either disastrous or unsustainable and rather more quickly than most of us imagined.

 

There's no way we'll be denied access to the EU market for long (for all that there may be tariffs and arrangements) but we've no needs whatsoever to compromise the stance demanded by the Leave vote. We can more than drum up the trade necessary to stand our corner, hopefully as a strong, proud, British Isles but that remains to be seen.

 

Right now I'd back the strength of the UK against that of the economic and social mess that is the European Union beneath its blistering skin,  and with worse to come if they don't remove their idealogical blinkers...or Junckers!     .  

 

There are committed supporters of "Remain" on here who have no apparent desire to change their viewpoint whatever arguments are forwarded.

 

But too many of the  "Leavers" seem to have scared themselves with their own vote much like a few of the traders I know who are forever lamenting the lack of quality buying opportunities but rarely have the nerve to buy them when they are offered for fear of the cost.  

 

I see the UK as becoming an even better friend of Europe than the often reluctant acquiescent they are now, but on our own terms, under our own flag and with all the flexibility we need to adjust when needs be and when circumstances demand it. 

[Strokes]

Farage isn't and hopefully will never be in a position to pledge anything. He's an unelected spokesman for a party which frankly no longer seems to have a purpose. Anyone who listened to him and took his words as a pledge really ought to ask themselves some serious questions. For  a man who complains repeatedly about unelected Euro bureaucrats this seems to be what he thinks he is only in Britain.

 

We now face two and a half years with a government basically unable to conduct the serious business required for running and "improving" the country whilst most parliamentary time will be taken up discussing the brexit terms and conditions in which the only sure fire winners will be the lawyers.

 

I completely agree with you on the chances of the EU accepting free trade without free movement and the fact that trade relationships will take priority over and above issues of immigration. Too many people were simply incapable of either trying, or simply intellectually incapable of being able, to understand the intricacies of the political debate and could only focus on single issues.

 

Still at least the middle/upper class white voters of rural Leicestershire, many of whom have probably never met an immigrant, will be able to have their tea parties and barbecues and wave their Union flags declaring how wonderful the empire was with the irony likely to be an outcome that sees the break up of their beloved United Kingdom.

St George > Union Jack.

[Webbo]

St George > Union Jack.

I think you'll find if you voted leave it ought to be a swastika.

[Dodgy Bob]

Why would he do that right now? He would hand over a massive advantage to anyone who plans to stand against him.

You must not have read his telegraph article either because outlining his plan is exactly what he has done.

It doesn't matter that he's not in power, he is still capable of outlining his plans and he is doing, so I'm sorry, but that's a piss weak excuse that notably Boris himself isn't even attempting to use when it would be magnificently convenient for him to do so.

Sooner or later you leavers are going to have to face up to the fact that you've been duped. Boris is likely to be pm and doesn't seem to have any desire to reduce immigration and has in fact strongly suggested that the freedom of movement will continue indefinitely.

Keep pulling the wool over your own eyes if you want, but it's becoming clearer by the day that you've been conned.

[GingerrrFox]

Have people seen the latest statistics on what EU countries export to the UK and what the UK exports to the EU? It's clear who would be losing out in the long run and it isn't us.

The EU exports £41 billion to the UK, whereas we export £25 billion to the EU. This new trade agreement is just as important to the EU as it is to us, if not more so. I encourage people to listen to Paolo Barnard, an Italian economist/journalist and see from his unbiased viewpoint who he thinks has won in this referendum.

[Babylon]

It tells me that the freedom of movement act is massively unpopular all over the EU and really should be looked at and discussed by the council.

Unfortunately it's not universally unpopular, especially with those currently in the hot seats and likely to remain there whilst we negotiate.

[Strokes]

You must not have read his telegraph article either because outlining his plan is exactly what he has done.

It doesn't matter that he's not in power, he is still capable of outlining his plans and he is doing, so I'm sorry, but that's a piss weak excuse that notably Boris himself isn't even attempting to use when it would be magnificently convenient for him to do so.

Sooner or later you leavers are going to have to face up to the fact that you've been duped. Boris is likely to be pm and doesn't seem to have any desire to reduce immigration and has in fact strongly suggested that the freedom of movement will continue indefinitely.

Keep pulling the wool over your own eyes if you want, but it's becoming clearer by the day that you've been conned.

If I don't like what Boris (man of no power) proposes, I can vote against him at a general election assuming he gets the leadership. I didn't vote Boris Johnson in the referendum, I voted leave. I voted Tory at the last general election, so it's Cameron and Osbourne currently that need to come up with a plan. Until that changes.

[Babylon]

I encourage people to listen to Paolo Barnard, an Italian economist/journalist and see from his unbiased viewpoint who he thinks has won in this referendum.

He does come across a bit like one of those 9/11 truthers with his youtube videos. 

[Thracian]

Do you really think all the other EU members are going to grant us something as huge as one way freedom of movement? Something that would appeal massively to lots of other countries and potentially put the whole lot at risk. If we're seen to get a great deal and something as huge as that, it's very bad for the future of the EU.

 

It's sort of like saying, how you you know we can't sign Ronaldo for £2.50. I don't, but it's massively massively unlikely with loads of very good reasons we won't and not many good reasons we would.

 

 

I'm not getting worked, up... I'm discussing the rather large implications in the highly likely event that Boris does not get everything he wants.

 

 

 

The sanctioning of 27 members is one of the problems which anchors the EU so fast that change is laboriously slow if possible at all. We're well out of it and should never really have accepted such nonsense in the  first place nor.the stealth erosion of our sovereignty which was never the wishes of the people as some will have doubtless expressed in their wish to leave.    

[Guest]

I'm not sure why people don't understand, they were not pledges. It wasn't an election for power, they were nothing more than examples of what could be achieved outside of the EU. The pledges will come with elections, you cannot implement things without the power to do so.

 

Perhaps you don't understand because you have a brain and can't relate to so many people who hear what they want and then vote accordingly.

[Guest]

You can't reduce immigration anytime soon, we all know it will take at least 2 years to detach ourselves from Brussels and until then we have to abide by the freedom of movement act. Then there will have to be systems put in place, it could take quite some time. The NHS was laughed at from the start, widely discredited, isn't Farages example to rebuff and anyone voting on that alone I have no time for.

 

Just because you didn't believe it doesn't mean millions didn't. Certianly more than enough for the "leave" vote to have lost.

 

You've basically said that the "leave" vote was for "no change".

[Strokes]

Unfortunately it's not universally unpopular, especially with those currently in the hot seats and likely to remain there whilst we negotiate.

The German elections are coming up, a big lobby in Germany is the car manufactures. Merkel will have to appease them, they are worried over brexit. We could have more power than you think. France could be having a referendum amongst others, all of this before we actually leave. The reform is on the cards, the freedom of movement is potentially up for discussion along with maybe a few other things. What is important is now the EU Chiefs will take us serious, so we know what they offer now, is the best they will ever be prepared too.

Personally I think the house of cards is about to come crashing down and the EU will be no more in the non too distant future.

[Guest]

Why would he do that right now? He would hand over a massive advantage to anyone who plans to stand against him.

 

He would do it to allay the fears of the people and the markets.

 

If the plans are good it won't matter who stands against him.

 

Especially when they're suggesting a near sit on the fence remainer as the only other candidate.

[Strokes]

Perhaps you don't understand because you have a brain and can't relate to so many people who hear what they want and then vote accordingly.

I think you are underestimating too many people, sure there will be some but not enough to make it worthy of discussion IMO.

[Thracian]

You must not have read his telegraph article either because outlining his plan is exactly what he has done.

It doesn't matter that he's not in power, he is still capable of outlining his plans and he is doing, so I'm sorry, but that's a piss weak excuse that notably Boris himself isn't even attempting to use when it would be magnificently convenient for him to do so.

Sooner or later you leavers are going to have to face up to the fact that you've been duped. Boris is likely to be pm and doesn't seem to have any desire to reduce immigration and has in fact strongly suggested that the freedom of movement will continue indefinitely.

Keep pulling the wool over your own eyes if you want, but it's becoming clearer by the day that you've been conned.

 

 

You're right we've been conned - by the EU with its remorseless, unmandated drive towards federalisation and the erosion of our power to shape our own society and make our own decisions.    

[Guest]

I think the only real anger on display for the time being is remainers throwing hissy fits, left, right and centre, and there are clearly as many on that side displaying a complete lack of political understanding. If Boris is to be elected he will have to throw the NHS a bone and I think he knows it.

 

True.

 

It'll have to be a lot more than a bone though.

[Guest]

It's pointless now talking about what we will and won't get. The negotiations haven't started yet and they're going to take 2 years. Well get some of what we want and have to accept some things we don't.

 

Surely it's no more pointless now than it was during the ref campaign.

[Thracian]

The German elections are coming up, a big lobby in Germany is the car manufactures. Merkel will have to appease them, they are worried over brexit. We could have more power than you think. France could be having a referendum amongst others, all of this before we actually leave. The reform is on the cards, the freedom of movement is potentially up for discussion along with maybe a few other things. What is important is now the EU Chiefs will take us serious, so we know what they offer now, is the best they will ever be prepared too.

Personally I think the house of cards is about to come crashing down and the EU will be no more in the non too distant future.

 

 

 

I've not always thought like this but I sincerely hope we become a firmer friend of Germany over this rather than the other way around. And with the responsibility Germany's going to have - not to mention the pressures - there's absolutely no way she'll shun our 70-million strong market! 

[Strokes]

True.

 

It'll have to be a lot more than a bone though.

We will have to wait and see Fif, if Boris thinks he can get away with the bullshit Cameron gets away with on U turns, he will come unstuck very quickly and may only be able to form a government with UKIP or labour. He knows what is at stake and he has to get this dead right to be a success. There is very little room for error and he is understandably cagey, his own party is split, his voters are split. He has to give something to everyone but be mindful of the things he has said, let's wait until we see what he has got in mind because he could well be outmanoeuvred by someone yet.

[Guest]

The Chancellor - "The pound is stable and the markets soon will be".

Project fear is over, aside from a few media outlets and the very strange people who want the nation to fail to they can be proved right.

Hopefully now the government (not vote leave) will now be producing a plan for the country to go forward after taking the decision it did, some people are almost forgetting that is their job.

Sturgeon sounding desperate now as well to "stay in the EU" via some back door deal, I think she knows she won't be able to sell applying for membership to the people.

 

Project control fear - keep the lies going.

 

How many of you are going to say the pound isn't going down when it quite clearly is.

[Guest]

Can someone explain why the EU forces countries to have free movement for free trade? Why won't they allow countries to trade for free without the free movement anyway? Always seemed quite odd to me. 

 

Did you vote remain or Leave?