Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Guest]

Well it tells me Boris is likely to get bent over and stuffed like a Christmas Turkey by Merkel.

 

That's another positive for Boris then.

[Guest]

German and French businesses are already lobbying for us not to be thrown out of the single market. We're too big a market for them to just dismiss us. We'll get a deal, maybe not everything we want but better off than where we are now.

 

So you can discuss it and know what's going to happen but we can't. What position are we finishing in the league next season? 

[Webbo]

Surely it's no more pointless now than it was during the ref campaign.

The campaign was about projections and aspirations, that's over now, the argument is won. Now it's about negotiations. Panicking over things that will probably never happen, and if they do it'll be in 2 or 3 years time is ridiculously childish.

 

Did anyone seriously think that we'd have a new govt and the negotiations finished by now?

[Thracian]

We will have to wait and see Fif, if Boris thinks he can get away with the bullshit Cameron gets away with on U turns, he will come unstuck very quickly and may only be able to form a government with UKIP or labour. He knows what is at stake and he has to get this dead right to be a success. There is very little room for error and he is understandably cagey, his own party is split, his voters are split. He has to give something to everyone but be mindful of the things he has said, let's wait until we see what he has got in mind because he could well be outmanoeuvred by someone yet.

 

 

If he accepts "free movement" as a condition of access to the single market he's had it. Just as "free movement" will "have it" for the whole EU concept in time.

 

It's not fair or sensible for any nation really...and too often it's not fair for individuals either.

 

As I've mentioned before about the flawed Human Rights legislation, it's not just important for individuals to have rights, but for the rights of those individuals not to adversely or unreasonably impact on the rights of others.  

[Guest]

Have people seen the latest statistics on what EU countries export to the UK and what the UK exports to the EU? It's clear who would be losing out in the long run and it isn't us.

The EU exports £41 billion to the UK, whereas we export £25 billion to the EU. This new trade agreement is just as important to the EU as it is to us, if not more so. I encourage people to listen to Paolo Barnard, an Italian economist/journalist and see from his unbiased viewpoint who he thinks has won in this referendum.

 

I would suggest that everyone loses.

 

And basing your argument on a monetary figure is short sighted - even if your figures are correct then you could say that the UK can potentially lose £41 bn of goods compared to the EU only losing £25bn. Do you think that we buy them because we are generous or because we need them and they're cheaper through the EU?

[Guest]

If I don't like what Boris (man of no power) proposes, I can vote against him at a general election assuming he gets the leadership. I didn't vote Boris Johnson in the referendum, I voted leave. I voted Tory at the last general election, so it's Cameron and Osbourne currently that need to come up with a plan. Until that changes.

 

He doesn't have to be voted in to lead the country. Your people (DC for sure) have quit on you.

[Thracian]

Project control fear - keep the lies going.

 

How many of you are going to say the pound isn't going down when it quite clearly is.

 

 

I'd imagine a good few of our exporters would have loved the pound going down. And a good many others will have made money too. For instance, gold went up about 20%. Indeed, in times of trouble, you're invariably better off with gold than paper.

[reynard]

There could well be legal challenges yet and until we  trigger article 50 this isn't a done deal.

 

First of all Scotland is possibly legally allowed to reject this decision. Under the Scotland Act 1998 article 70 her parliament has to consent to measures that eliminate Eu's laws applying to Scotland. I have no idea how we all stand  should, as seems possible, do this.

 

To change this legal technicality the Uk Parliament would have to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and then amend the Devolution legislation pertaining to Scotland, Wales and NI. I can't see any government wanting to do this especially a Tory one that supports the Union.

 

Also there is a possibility of a general election. If a party campaigning on the brexit vote was not successful in being elected it is possible that any future government may feel it doesn't have an electoral mandate to trigger clause 50. Quite possible we could end up with another hung parliament?

[Guest]

I think you are underestimating too many people, sure there will be some but not enough to make it worthy of discussion IMO.

 

We'll disagree on that.

 

IMO the average joe is a moron. 

[Alf Bentley]

Have people seen the latest statistics on what EU countries export to the UK and what the UK exports to the EU? It's clear who would be losing out in the long run and it isn't us.

The EU exports £41 billion to the UK, whereas we export £25 billion to the EU. This new trade agreement is just as important to the EU as it is to us, if not more so. I encourage people to listen to Paolo Barnard, an Italian economist/journalist and see from his unbiased viewpoint who he thinks has won in this referendum.

 

 

This exports v. imports data gets thrown around as proof that the EU needs us more than we need them, but it's of dubious relevance.

 

Trade with the UK certainly matters to them and is an incentive for them - and us - to do a deal. But it really, really doesn't mean we're in a strong negotiating position.

 

Look at trade percentages instead: 16% of EU exports go to the UK. But 45% of UK exports go to the EU and 53% of our imports come from the EU (and imports matter too, not only to consumers but also to businesses - raw materials, components).

 

I'll repeat an analogy I've already posted. Imagine that you're running a business and have to renegotiate a trading deal with a regular partner.

He sells 16% of his output to you and buys maybe 14% of his stock from you. You rely on him to buy 45% of your output and you procure 53% of your stock from him.

 

Obviously, it's in the interests of both parties to do a deal. But who's in the better bargaining position? You, because he sells slightly more to you than he buys from you? Or him, because he knows you rely on him for 45% of your sales and 53% of your purchases - compared to 16% and 14% in his case?

 

....and in the case of EU/UK, that's before you take account of political considerations. The EU will clearly not want to be unduly generous in case it encourages other Eurosceptic members to leave - and they're in a stronger bargaining position than we are.

 

Interesting expert analysis here:  http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V3D2PLgrKUk

[Guest]

The campaign was about projections and aspirations, that's over now, the argument is won. Now it's about negotiations. Panicking over things that will probably never happen, and if they do it'll be in 2 or 3 years time is ridiculously childish.

 

Did anyone seriously think that we'd have a new govt and the negotiations finished by now?

 

We're not talking about panicking we're talking about discussing.

 

Don't understand your last question. Everyone should have known that negotiations will take a minimum of 2 years after pulling out. That is one of the problems - people don't know what is going to happen for a minimum of 2 years. If anyone thought differently they were even more "misled" (instead of stupid) than I believe.

[Guest]

I'd imagine a good few of our exporters would have loved the pound going down. And a good many others will have made money too. For instance, gold went up about 20%. Indeed, in times of trouble, you're invariably better off with gold than paper.

 

But the country and people's jobs are better with stability.

[Guest]

There could well be legal challenges yet and until we  trigger article 50 this isn't a done deal.

 

First of all Scotland is possibly legally allowed to reject this decision. Under the Scotland Act 1998 article 70 her parliament has to consent to measures that eliminate Eu's laws applying to Scotland. I have no idea how we all stand  should, as seems possible, do this.

 

To change this legal technicality the Uk Parliament would have to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and then amend the Devolution legislation pertaining to Scotland, Wales and NI. I can't see any government wanting to do this especially a Tory one that supports the Union.

 

Also there is a possibility of a general election. If a party campaigning on the brexit vote was not successful in being elected it is possible that any future government may feel it doesn't have an electoral mandate to trigger clause 50. Quite possible we could end up with another hung parliament?

 

I never knew about the law concerning Scotland until yesterday. Surely this should have been sorted BEFORE a vote. Didn't any politician know about it?

[hackneyfox]

Have people seen the latest statistics on what EU countries export to the UK and what the UK exports to the EU? It's clear who would be losing out in the long run and it isn't us.

The EU exports £41 billion to the UK, whereas we export £25 billion to the EU. This new trade agreement is just as important to the EU as it is to us, if not more so. I encourage people to listen to Paolo Barnard, an Italian economist/journalist and see from his unbiased viewpoint who he thinks has won in this referendum.

The EU is made up of 26 different countries so that £41 billion in exports to the UK isn't actually that huge to individual countries whereas the £25 billion we export is.

[Guest]

The EU is made up of 26 different countries so that £41 billion in exports to the UK isn't actually that huge to individual countries whereas the £25 billion we export is.

 

I thought there are 28 (incl UK)

[bovril]

I thought there are 28 (incl UK)

 

Latvia and Cyprus haven't been seen since Brexit. Rumours abound that they took their ball and went home.

[Thracian]

 

 

Still at least the middle/upper class white voters of rural Leicestershire, many of whom have probably never met an immigrant, will be able to have their tea parties and barbecues and wave their Union flags declaring how wonderful the empire was with the irony likely to be an outcome that sees the break up of their beloved United Kingdom.

 

 

Ignore the thousands of people in former Labour heartlands who voted Leave, why not!

 

And another thing. 

 

There are lots of perfectly ordinary hard-working people who enjoy their tea parties, barbeques and Union flags just as do the equally hard-working middle/upper classes of all colours and creeds.

 

And if they offend you so much, or give focus to your seemingly resentful class-war attitudes, it's hard to imagine what you're doing here!

 

The Queen celebrated her official and unofficial birthdays recently. The expression of appreciation was overwhelming. By people of all kinds and from all over the UK. And your sneering attitude only makes me damned proud that this nation voted "Leave" and convinces me that their vote was the right one.

 

It shows how important it is to protect our country from those who would spit on its democracy, its achievements, its history and its freedoms.            

One of my sons might be described as close to "Middle class". He has a much-varied, multi-cultural staff of around 25, who he provides with an excellent living and endless opportunities. He's one of many thousands who help this country to employ more people than ever before. Yet all you can do is vent your blinkered prejudices.    

 

PS: Totally agree about the lawyers. Think of what we'd have saved without involvement with the EU with its European Court, and all the laws and petty directives they've subjected us to and which will be enthusiastically ongoing at ridiculous expense until the entire enterprise collapses.

   

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6539184/EU-wastes-millions-on-bizarre-projects.html

 

Just key in "EU wastes billions" and you can read for a week. 

[bovril]

 

Just key in "EU wastes billions" and you can read for a week. 

 

Having lived in a couple of different European countries this is actually the one argument from the leavers that I most agree with. A huge amount of money is wasted or lost through corruption.

[Thracian]

But the country and people's jobs are better with stability.

 

 

There's no great stability within a wasteful, freespending house of cards with many of the economies up the proverbial creek and serious social problems (and costs) mounting by the day.

 

We need to build wider markets on the back of prudent economics and through the exercising of a fair and sustainable idealogy.    

[Strokes]

We'll disagree on that.

 

IMO the average joe is a moron. 

[Babylon]

The campaign was about projections and aspirations, that's over now, the argument is won. Now it's about negotiations. Panicking over things that will probably never happen, and if they do it'll be in 2 or 3 years time is ridiculously childish.

 

Did anyone seriously think that we'd have a new govt and the negotiations finished by now?

 

Why do you keep going on about panicking? Johnson set out roughly what he wanted, people responded. It's not panicking or childish to say he's highly unlikely to get some of the things he wants.

[Strokes]

This exports v. imports data gets thrown around as proof that the EU needs us more than we need them, but it's of dubious relevance.

 

Trade with the UK certainly matters to them and is an incentive for them - and us - to do a deal. But it really, really doesn't mean we're in a strong negotiating position.

 

Look at trade percentages instead: 16% of EU exports go to the UK. But 45% of UK exports go to the EU and 53% of our imports come from the EU (and imports matter too, not only to consumers but also to businesses - raw materials, components).

 

I'll repeat an analogy I've already posted. Imagine that you're running a business and have to renegotiate a trading deal with a regular partner.

He sells 16% of his output to you and buys maybe 14% of his stock from you. You rely on him to buy 45% of your output and you procure 53% of your stock from him.

 

Obviously, it's in the interests of both parties to do a deal. But who's in the better bargaining position? You, because he sells slightly more to you than he buys from you? Or him, because he knows you rely on him for 45% of your sales and 53% of your purchases - compared to 16% and 14% in his case?

 

....and in the case of EU/UK, that's before you take account of political considerations. The EU will clearly not want to be unduly generous in case it encourages other Eurosceptic members to leave - and they're in a stronger bargaining position than we are.

 

Interesting expert analysis here:  http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V3D2PLgrKUk

It's not quite as simple as that Alf, we all know the power of certain lobbying groups, that will could help us significantly if the timing falls right. The crucial thing the EU has in its favour in the negotiations that I have recently discovered, is that we are unable to seek our own trade agreements until after exit, this does tip the balance in their favour.

[Webbo]

Why do you keep going on about panicking? Johnson set out roughly what he wanted, people responded. It's not panicking or childish to say he's highly unlikely to get some of the things he wants.

"We're no going to get what we were promised, they've backtracked on this, they've back tracked on that, Europe is going to punish us"

 

Why don't we just see what actually happens?

[reynard]

Ignore the thousands of people in former Labour heartlands who voted Leave, why not!

 

And another thing. 

 

There are lots of perfectly ordinary hard-working people who enjoy their tea parties, barbeques and Union flags just as do the equally hard-working middle/upper classes of all colours and creeds.

 

And if they offend you so much, or give focus to your seemingly resentful class-war attitudes, it's hard to imagine what you're doing here!

 

The Queen celebrated her official and unofficial birthdays recently. The expression of appreciation was overwhelming. By people of all kinds and from all over the UK. And your sneering attitude only makes me damned proud that this nation voted "Leave" and convinces me that their vote was the right one.

 

It shows how important it is to protect our country from those who would spit on its democracy, its achievements, its history and its freedoms.            

One of my sons might be described as close to "Middle class". He has a much-varied, multi-cultural staff of around 25, who he provides with an excellent living and endless opportunities. He's one of many thousands who help this country to employ more people than ever before. Yet all you can do is vent your blinkered prejudices.    

 

PS: Totally agree about the lawyers. Think of what we'd have saved without involvement with the EU with its European Court, and all the laws and petty directives they've subjected us to and which will be enthusiastically ongoing at ridiculous expense until the entire enterprise collapses.

   

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6539184/EU-wastes-millions-on-bizarre-projects.html

 

Just key in "EU wastes billions" and you can read for a week. 

 

Oh dear. I'm afraid you rather taken me the wrong way. I certainly have no class war to propagate and am not at all resentful of any of them. All the people I personally know who voted to leave are exactly as I describe them. Whilst you are quite correct to point out that ordinary hard working people also like to wave their flags and I accept that. They were not the people I was commenting on. Those I commented on are those that would want to deny Scotland independence even if they voted for it yet ironically have possibly delivered the very thing they wish not to happen.

 

As for your personal attack on me I'm afraid you have no idea who I am or what I do just as I don't with you.  I am as British as you and as proud of being so. I am especially proud that we live in a modern democracy and generally have a people accepting of other races and an open and tolerant society. As for blinkered prejudices I would respectfully suggest that it is exactly those blinkered prejudices which resulted in many people voting to leave based upon a simplistic view of immigration propagated by a biased and one sided press.

 

I admire your optimisitc view of the future and hope that you are right. All we can do now is wait and see.

[Finnaldo]

Might see if I can apply for dual British-Irish nationality.