Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest Col city fan]

When is the next general election gonna be? Any news?

Edited 2 July 2017 by Col city fan

[Guest MattP]

6 hours ago, toddybad said:

Tories in revolt over austerity. About bloody time. You just know they'll add a tax which affects the richest 5% to cover the costs!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/top-tories-revolt-against-may-public-spending

Led by Michael Gove according to the Sunday Times. 

 

It will be something pretty incredible and totally irresponsible for the Tories to go on a spending binge while the country still borrows 55 billion a year to get by, although I can now see why they want to do it as they'll probably lose the next election if they don't. 

 

I just hope we don't hit another recession, if we do with a 100billion+ deficit whilst also having a debt of nearly two trillion we have absolutely no tools to fight it with. It would be the mother of all recessions. 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Col city fan said:

When is the next general election gonna be? Any news?

I would take a guess at mid 2019 now, after Brexit negotiations are complete.

 

The Tory-DUP deal is effectively only agreed for two years rather than five and there is no Queens Speech next year.

[Guest Col city fan]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

I would take a guess at mid 2019 now, after Brexit negotiations are complete.

 

The Tory-DUP deal is effectively only agreed for two years rather than five and there is no Queens Speech next year.

thanks Matt

[DJ Barry Hammond]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

I would take a guess at mid 2019 now, after Brexit negotiations are complete.

 

The Tory-DUP deal is effectively only agreed for two years rather than five and there is no Queens Speech next year.

 

It does feel that's the plan in mind, yet within this time table I'm puzzled where the change of leader bit would come in? Would that be this September over the party conference, thus giving the new leader a long part of Brexit negotiations to endure - doesn't seem a very sensible move, but changing just before / after negotiations doesn't look any better from this current vantage point either? 

 

It it does seem by more luck than judgement Theresa has her feet firmly wedged underneath the table... although how good a position that is when you yield no overall power is another question. I'm also wondering whether any leadership challenge could turn out to be a bloody battle, because I doubt Theresa will fall on her sword so easily (especially if it's Gove leading the revolt)... she may well turn into a bloody difficult woman to remove. 

 

So here's a prediction for you Matt... if May survives to the end of the year, she'll end up fighting the next election.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

It does feel that's the plan in mind, yet within this time table I'm puzzled where the change of leader bit would come in? Would that be this September over the party conference, thus giving the new leader a long part of Brexit negotiations to endure - doesn't seem a very sensible move, but changing just before / after negotiations doesn't look any better from this current vantage point either? 

 

It it does seem by more luck than judgement Theresa has her feet firmly wedged underneath the table... although how good a position that is when you yield no overall power is another question. I'm also wondering whether any leadership challenge could turn out to be a bloody battle, because I doubt Theresa will fall on her sword so easily (especially if it's Gove leading the revolt)... she may well turn into a bloody difficult woman to remove. 

 

So here's a prediction for you Matt... if May survives to the end of the year, she'll end up fighting the next election.

Fair play, I just can't see how that would happen though. She just can't campaign. 

 

We are out of the EU on the 31st March 2019 and the Tory DUP deal effectively runs until July 2019 so they have a four month window to change the leader if they want too.

 

She could be out sooner though, first break in the EU negotiations is in about 6 months, they could even do it then.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Fair play, I just can't see how that would happen though. She just can't campaign. 

 

We are out of the EU on the 31st March 2019 and the Tory DUP deal effectively runs until July 2019 so they have a four month window to change the leader if they want too.

 

She could be out sooner though, first break in the EU negotiations is in about 6 months, they could even do it then.

 

Well, noting the basic outline of the Gove piece they flashed on the BBC just now... that's the sounding horn of a leadership campaign to me (don't even have to read it - the picture said it all). 

 

Oh, he's on Marr too! 

 

But certainly i think the notion of the longer May stays in post the harder she will be to remove is true (just don't centre the campaign around her next time!). 

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

Well, noting the basic outline of the Gove piece they flashed on the BBC just now... that's the sounding horn of a leadership campaign to me (don't even have to read it - the picture said it all). 

 

Oh, he's on Marr too! 

 

But certainly i think the notion of the longer May stays in post the harder she will be to remove is true (just don't centre the campaign around her next time!). 

He just can't help himself can he? Only been back in the cabinet for a few weeks.

 

He's very popular with the party membership but from my own anecdotes (not 100% to be trusted I know) he is considered anywhere between a weasel and a monster among the general public. 

[Guest MattP]

This is great.

 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

He just can't help himself can he? Only been back in the cabinet for a few weeks.

 

He's very popular with the party membership but from my own anecdotes (not 100% to be trusted I know) he is considered anywhere between a weasel and a monster among the general public. 

 

Well it was clear to me he was brought back into the cabinet at the request of someone, to give Gove a chance to rebuild his profile. Clearly wasn't May's decision was it ?

 

And yes, I think he'd struggle to gain support in the wider public - even before the 'deed' I always felt something untrustworthy about Gove, something to make you wary of him and what he was saying. 

 

That said, there'd be no way Gove would have made the mistakes May did, so maybe that's what he's been going round saying in party circles.

 

Nicky Morgan, an ally of Gove has been quite vocal in the press recently hasn't she. It all adds up!

 

 

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Well it was clear to me he was brought back into the cabinet at the request of someone, to give Gove a chance to rebuild his profile. Clearly wasn't May's decision was it ?

 

And yes, I think he'd struggle to gain support in the wider public - even before the 'deed' I always felt something untrustworthy about Gove, something to make you wary of him and what he was saying. 

 

That said, there'd be no way Gove would have made the mistakes May did, so maybe that's what he's been going round saying in party circles.

 

Nicky Morgan, an ally of Gove has been quite vocal in the press recently hasn't she. It all adds up!

A Gove/Morgan ticket would be even more of a nightmare, how to isolate remainers and leavers in one go.

 

If the polls are close just go with Boris - I don't want to die wondering about how he would get on.

 

I've no doubt Gove would comfortably see off Corbyn in any sort of intelligent debate, but I just don't see the public voting for him en masse.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

But he is dangerous, I'd imagine most people with a keen interest in politics remember the shouty, nasty, aggressive McDonnell long before his damascene conversation to softly spoken, apologetic nice guy as soon as he became shadow chancellor. 

 

Even forgetting the IRA stuff this is a man who called the 2010 London rioters "the best of our movement", he wanted to even lift a ban on the Tamil Tigers at one point, just two years ago he put his name to a motion that would disarm all police, something even the most left winger must realise is beyond insanity given the recent events we have seen in places like London Bridge. 

 

So no, I don't think he'd be good for ordinary people at all. I think he would be very, very bad for ordinary people. 

Might that have all just been 'noise' though - of somebody whose spent a lifetime being an outsider and protester?

 

Labour policy is great atm (if you're left wing).

[davieG]

Theresa May has 'hamstrung' David Davis in Brexit talks

• 30 June 2017
•  
• From the sectionUK Politics

•  

Theresa May has made David Davis's job more difficult by setting "red lines" for him in Brexit talks, his ex-chief of staff has told the BBC.

James Chapman said the Brexit secretary had been "hamstrung" by the prime minister's stance on the European Court of Justice (ECJ), among other things.

He said Mrs May would not get a Brexit deal through Parliament unless she showed more "flexibility".

Downing Street and the Department for Exiting the EU declined to comment.

Mrs May has insisted the ECJ will have no jurisdiction over the UK.

But the EU insists that the ECJ must continue to offer legal protection for its citizens in the UK, just as it does now.

The ECJ's main role is to uphold the rules of the single market, rather than rule on criminal matters like the European Court of Human Rights.

Mr Davis has said a new international body will have to be set up to settle disputes between the UK and the EU after Brexit, a job currently done by the ECJ.

'Pragmatism'

Mr Chapman accused Mrs May of taking an "absolutist" position on the ECJ, saying: "She's set a red line effectively for a conference speech that hamstrung these negotiations in my view."

He added: "There have been red lines that have been set for him that make the job he has to do very difficult."

Mr Chapman also warned, in an interview with The Week in Westminster to be broadcast on Saturday at 11:00 BST on BBC Radio 4, that Mrs May would struggle to get her version of Brexit past MPs.

"If she doesn't, in my point of view, show more flexibility, show more pragmatism than she did demonstrate in the Home Office, she won't get this stuff through Parliament."

A former Daily Mail journalist, Mr Chapman was George Osborne's director of communications before becoming Mr Davis's chief of staff at the new department for exiting the EU.

 

He also revealed that cabinet ministers wanted Mrs May to do a U-turn over plans to pull the UK out of Euratom, the pan-European atomic energy regulator.

Euratom is a separate legal entity from the EU and gives Britain's nuclear industry access to technology and fissile material.

'Talent'

Mr Chapman said the reason for wanting to withdraw from Euratom was to prevent the free movement of nuclear scientists, which is governed by the ECJ.

"Now I would have thought the UK would like to continue welcoming nuclear scientists, who are all probably being paid six figures and are paying lots of tax," he said.

"But we're withdrawing from it because of this absolutist position on the European Court."

He added: "If she doesn't shift on this I think Parliament will do it for her."

He also took a swipe at the ability of ministers in Mrs May's top team, which he said was "not groaning with talent".

"I think a political party is in a bad place when there's more talented people on its back benches than there are on the front benches."

He said the cabinet's leading "Brexiteers", David Davis and Boris Johnson, were "actually pretty liberal on issues like immigration" and would like to "recalibrate" Mrs May's position, "but at the moment she is showing no willingness to do this".

Mr Chapman stopped working for David Davis at the election and is now a partner at lobbying company Bell Pottinger.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Led by Michael Gove according to the Sunday Times. 

 

It will be something pretty incredible and totally irresponsible for the Tories to go on a spending binge while the country still borrows 55 billion a year to get by, although I can now see why they want to do it as they'll probably lose the next election if they don't. 

 

I just hope we don't hit another recession, if we do with a 100billion+ deficit whilst also having a debt of nearly two trillion we have absolutely no tools to fight it with. It would be the mother of all recessions. 

As I've said for a while, we've reached the point where government has sucked money out of the economy in real terms and personal debt is at near record levels. At the same time we have record low interest rates and inflation is increasing. We're right on the precipice of the mother of all recessions already. Who knows if it will work but the government MUST inject money into the economy to have any chance of avoiding recession.  Whether the deficit is a bit higher or bit lower than it is now really won't affect the fact that interest rstes are already where they are and QE won't save us this time round. It is austerity that has brought us to this point by cutting off recovery from the last crash - whilst there has been growth we've barely caught up with where we were a decade ago. 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

A friend of mine who is well versed in Tory party goings on reckons Hammond will be taking the helm within 6 months as a temporary PM for 2 years until the Brexit negotiations are finished and we leave (or not) the EU.  

 

Once that time period is over, he'll step aside and a full leadership contest will take place and a GE will follow.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

A friend of mine who is well versed in Tory party goings on reckons Hammond will be taking the helm within 6 months as a temporary PM for 2 years until the Brexit negotiations are finished and we leave (or not) the EU.  

 

Once that time period is over, he'll step aside and a full leadership contest will take place and a GE will follow.

Somebody with a softer view of brexit would be a godsend. I think TM has entiretly lost the plot. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

A Gove/Morgan ticket would be even more of a nightmare, how to isolate remainers and leavers in one go.

 

If the polls are close just go with Boris - I don't want to die wondering about how he would get on.

 

I've no doubt Gove would comfortably see off Corbyn in any sort of intelligent debate, but I just don't see the public voting for him en masse.

There's something about the way he enunciates his 'o's that just makes me cringe. I also tend to get the feeling he's quite a right wing tory though maybe you can tell me otherwise? Just the impression i get from his weird way of basing education policy on his childhood rather than evidence. I can only see a centrist tory being put in place as tories aren't stupid and they'll lose with any more right wing nonsense. 

[Guest MattP]

38 minutes ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

A friend of mine who is well versed in Tory party goings on reckons Hammond will be taking the helm within 6 months as a temporary PM for 2 years until the Brexit negotiations are finished and we leave (or not) the EU.  

 

Once that time period is over, he'll step aside and a full leadership contest will take place and a GE will follow.

I think he wants it but a soft remain PM at the minute would surely see a no-confidence vote and a leadership challenge that he would have no chance of winning with the membership.

 

I'd rather stick with May than Hammond and that's saying something.

[Guest MattP]

45 minutes ago, toddybad said:

As I've said for a while, we've reached the point where government has sucked money out of the economy in real terms and personal debt is at near record levels. At the same time we have record low interest rates and inflation is increasing. We're right on the precipice of the mother of all recessions already. Who knows if it will work but the government MUST inject money into the economy to have any chance of avoiding recession.  Whether the deficit is a bit higher or bit lower than it is now really won't affect the fact that interest rstes are already where they are and QE won't save us this time round. It is austerity that has brought us to this point by cutting off recovery from the last crash - whilst there has been growth we've barely caught up with where we were a decade ago. 

You are pretty much proposing the policy of Hollande here post crash and that was a disaster.

 

Would you have a limit of what the debt or deficit would run to? I can't believe how aloof people can be over something so serious. If it really was as easy as spend equals growth equals surplus no one would ever go bankrupt. 

 

You remind myself of me as a 25 year old asking my mates to lend me a last 50 in the casino and they'll pay them all back 250 in a hour. 

[nnfox]

3 hours ago, Col city fan said:

When is the next general election gonna be? Any news?

I have a good friend who works in the Houses of Parliament and has good access to a lot of influential people.  I asked them this same question a couple of weeks ago.  Their response was "before the end of the year".  

 

Obviously politics is fairly fluid and things change, but sooner rather than later.

[Guest MattP]

Year of next election odds.

 

2017 - 10/1

2018 - 4/1

2019 - 5/2

2020 or later 7/4 fav

[Realist Guy In The Room]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

I think he wants it but a soft remain PM at the minute would surely see a no-confidence vote and a leadership challenge that he would have no chance of winning with the membership.

 

I'd rather stick with May than Hammond and that's saying something.

I think they may be seeing that there is no version of Brexit that doesnt make them look like shit.

 

The way its been described to me with the Hammond option basically has Hammond blaming May leaving himself absolved, then when he steps aside, whoever takes over can be absolved.  Then come next election, it'll actually be run on a concrete version of what the country looks like and not guess work.

 

Labour will have no position to argue and the Tories will retain power for another 5 years.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Realist Guy In The Room said:

I think they may be seeing that there is no version of Brexit that doesnt make them look like shit.

 

The way its been described to me with the Hammond option basically has Hammond blaming May leaving himself absolved, then when he steps aside, whoever takes over can be absolved.  Then come next election, it'll actually be run on a concrete version of what the country looks like and not guess work.

 

Labour will have no position to argue and the Tories will retain power for another 5 years.

It's not the worst idea in the World when I think about it.

 

It would need another manufactured result from the MP's to do it though. 

[Guest]

Hard Brexit has been confounded by some harder realities

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/02/hard-brexit-confounded-harder-realities

 

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

You are pretty much proposing the policy of Hollande here post crash and that was a disaster.

 

Would you have a limit of what the debt or deficit would run to? I can't believe how aloof people can be over something so serious. If it really was as easy as spend equals growth equals surplus no one would ever go bankrupt. 

 

You remind myself of me as a 25 year old asking my mates to lend me a last 50 in the casino and they'll pay them all back 250 in a hour. 

Look I'm not advocating borrow ever increasing amounts with no limit. The labour plan was to tax corporations and the top 5% to increase public sector spending without increasing the deficit and then to borrow one significant whack of cash on top for capital projects. Spending needs to increase whether it is tax rises on the wealthiest (as this allows recirculation of this money into the real economy rather than see it locked in investments) or borrowing, or a combination of the two.

 

It's been said a thousand times in the past but you can't cut your way out of recession. Well I'd say what we've seen is that you can't cut your way out of depression. There is no moral justification for destroying public services when there are ways of growing the economy to get it into a stronger state that doesn't rely on borrowing (at least to the same extent) in the future.

 

I realise you don't like my call to accept short/ medium term deficit but you surely must be able to see that we're getting nowhere as things stand - society is literally undergoing death by a thousand cuts. 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's not the worst idea in the World when I think about it.

 

It would need another manufactured result from the MP's to do it though. 

I'm pretty sure they could manage!