Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Well that's certainly not happening for the forseeable future now, a change to the voting system would also require another referendum

 

The irony is not lost on me.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Can anyone square how the EU can come up with this document on Northern Ireland given the wording of paragraph 45 of the agreement signed in December? 

 

As an aside it was wonderful to watch Labour (Barry Gardner) using the "they sell more to us than we sell to them" argument yesterday when asked why the EU would give us a bespoke customs deal with trade influence after spending the last 18 months arguing against that whenever a Tory Brexiteer mentioned it as clout in negotiation. Bravo.

 

This is going to get weirder.

 

Found the full text of the December agreement: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

 

Here's paragraph 49, spelling out the UK guarantee there'll be no hard border and commitment to 1 of 3 options (solution agreed in EU-UK trade deal, solution identified by UK & agreed by EU - or else continued alignment of NI with the EU):

"49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement".

 

Thus:

1: If a hard border is avoided through an EU-UK trade deal, there's no problem - but, realistically, that cannot happen if the UK intends to diverge.

2: If the UK proposes an acceptable (technological or organisational) solution to avoid a hard border, UK divergence would be possible. But the onus is clearly on us. The EU doesn't believe it's possible. We've said it is but haven't said how.

3: If neither 1 nor 2 applies, then the UK undertakes to keep N. Ireland fully aligned with Single Market/Customs Union rules supporting N-S Irish cooperation, the all-island economy & the Easter Friday Agreement.

 

Realistically, if the UK wants to diverge, to avoid a hard border, to avoid reneging on this agreement and to avoid divergence between GB and NI, we need to reveal this technological/organisational solution we claim exists.

 

I was trying to imagine any such solution. The only thing that I can imagine is selective internal checks on lorries by EU inspectors within N. Ireland and in the Republic by British inspectors, maybe at a Customs lorry park. That would be massively controversial to everyone. Particularly with a transition period, maybe a way could be found of computerising all the paperwork (though many of the cross-border traders would be farmers and very small businesses - not easy). I cannot imagine technology that could look inside lorries without them stopping, to check what goods were inside, whether they were EU-compliant and where they originated from: e.g. how would you tell a load of zero-tariff US chlorinated chicken from compliant British chicken?

Roadside checks by the EU in RoI would surely be a non-starter as there must be hundreds of roads across the border, and any UK-EU divergence would be an invitation to the smuggling of low-tariff imports or non-compliant produce. Donegal alone is the second largest county in Ireland - and that's only one section of the Irish border.

 

I assume that the EU views Paragraph 45, which you've quoted, as none of their business (second sentence, at least). The second sentence about the integrity of the UK internal market, including NI, will be none of the EU's business once we've left. That sentence was clearly inserted due to internal UK politics - namely May inserted it so as to reassure the DUP and keep them on board so that they didn't collapse the Tory/DUP confidence and supply deal.

 

Will be interesting to hear what Theresa says tomorrow....

Edited 1 March 2018 by Alf Bentley

[Innovindil]

Can anyone explain to me why it is that we're not leaving the decision to the NI people? It's their border after all. I don't particularly understand Irish history, might need a quick summary. 

[l444ry]

Seems like reality is dawning and Brexiteers will be blaming the Unicorns they promised next for this shambles.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Labour say they won't be taking any more of Max Mosley's money but have no plans to pay back the 500k 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43229971

Why would they? I've never understood the idea of giving it back. Like when hospitals pay back money. Just keep it. Let the sod who gave you it lose out. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Can anyone explain to me why it is that we're not leaving the decision to the NI people? It's their border after all. I don't particularly understand Irish history, might need a quick summary. 

Didn't they vote remain?

[Innovindil]

9 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Didn't they vote remain?

Yeah it was NI/Scotland remain wales/England out iirc. 

 

Even so, don't understand why they are not being giving the viable border options and letting them pick. 

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Yeah it was NI/Scotland remain wales/England out iirc. 

 

Even so, don't understand why they are not being giving the viable border options and letting them pick. 

 

Because Ireland is split on bi-partisan lines and they would never agree.

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Yeah it was NI/Scotland remain wales/England out iirc. 

 

Even so, don't understand why they are not being giving the viable border options and letting them pick. 

We're you only born in the last 20 years?

It took 30+ years of bloodshed to build the good Friday agreement and now Brexiteers are ready to throw n.Ireland to the wolves for their badly thought through plan. Ridiculous.

[Alf Bentley]

I'm no big fan of Blair, but the text of his speech reads well to me: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tonyblairs-speech-fullas-urges-eu-12109511

(convinced Brexiteers won't like it, I'm sure)

[Beechey]

24 minutes ago, toddybad said:

We're you only born in the last 20 years?

It took 30+ years of bloodshed to build the good Friday agreement and now Brexiteers are ready to throw n.Ireland to the wolves for their badly thought through plan. Ridiculous.

Yes, that's so obvious because the government doesn't want to have a customs border inside its own country, what a silly position to take.

[Guest MattP]

47 minutes ago, toddybad said:

We're you only born in the last 20 years?

It took 30+ years of bloodshed to build the good Friday agreement and now Brexiteers are ready to throw n.Ireland to the wolves for their badly thought through plan. Ridiculous.

Throw Northern Ireland to the wolves?

 

You realise the DUP, the majority part in NO, back the government position?

[Guest MattP]

Nick Boles is spot on here, such a shame his illness now keeps him from holding high office.

 

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Throw Northern Ireland to the wolves?

 

You realise the DUP, the majority part in NO, back the government position?

 

The DUP is the largest party, not the majority party. It has less than 50% support in NI.

It has the most MPs & Assembly Members in NI and the most votes (though only narrowly ahead of Sinn Fein now).

 

The majority position in NI is to Remain in the EU: supported by a large majority of Catholics and a significant minority of Unionists (including the rival Ulster Unionists).

 

What is the govt position, though? To have no border in the Irish Sea and no hard border in Ireland, by means yet to be explained given that they plan to leave the Customs Union and allow UK regulations to diverge from EU rules.

We might get an explanation tomorrow, though I'm expecting more empty rhetoric and kicking of cans down roads.....hope I'm unduly cynical.

[Webbo]

 

[Alf Bentley]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Nick Boles is spot on here, such a shame his illness now keeps him from holding high office.

 

 

Can't see how the EU is being arrogant in producing draft legislation based on a commitment given by the British PM, pending the suggestion/agreement of a better solution.

 

If Boles has evidence of a conspiracy, he should reveal it. Corbyn knew the EU doc and May's speech were due and timed his new policy launch for maximum impact. Major and Blair also knew when all these speeches/events were due, and they had been trailed in the media. So, I daresay they timed their speeches for maximum impact, too. That's just sensible tactics, not a conspiracy, without evidence to the contrary.

 

As for "undermining the elected UK govt", challenging the govt is the job of opposition parties. If the EU is also engaged in tactics to maximise its success in negotiations, that's hardly surprising either. The Govt does the same - and I'm sure May will be seeking to maximise her tactical advantage tomorrow....that's politics.

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The DUP is the largest party, not the majority party. It has less than 50% support in NI.

It has the most MPs & Assembly Members in NI and the most votes (though only narrowly ahead of Sinn Fein now).

 

The majority position in NI is to Remain in the EU: supported by a large majority of Catholics and a significant minority of Unionists (including the rival Ulster Unionists).

 

What is the govt position, though? To have no border in the Irish Sea and no hard border in Ireland, by means yet to be explained given that they plan to leave the Customs Union and allow UK regulations to diverge from EU rules.

We might get an explanation tomorrow, though I'm expecting more empty rhetoric and kicking of cans down roads.....hope I'm unduly cynical.

Mea Culpa! Thanks for the correction.

 

The only thing we know is that we won't be putting a border up whatever, I don't think the government could be any clearer on that, the challenge now is to find an acceptable solution to that which is obviously the hard part.

 

May needs to hopefully give us something to work, I also think she'll probably have some harsh words for the EU tomorrow - with the approach they have taken it's now also a political opportunity for her. 

 

If it does go wrong tomorrow we might not be far off seeing the men in grey suits.

[Wymsey]

15 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

Can only see this as a positive result temporarily, as feel when Brexit occurs costs will probably increase in general and borrowing £ from consumers will see a rise again imo.

Edited 1 March 2018 by Wymeswold fox

[Webbo]

The EU's own paper on how a hard border can be avoided.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

Despite Brexit!

[Alf Bentley]

50 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

 

Success from a Tory perspective (though the deficit needed cutting from any sane perspective).

Has taken a lot longer than promised - but has arrived quicker than expected 1-2 years ago (I don't want to be too churlish).

 

Of course, at what social cost and for how long are the obvious questions......but you knew I'd say that. 

 

If that graph maintains its current trajectory, the govt will be able to loosen the belt and spend more on public services, won't it?

Somehow reckon that cutting the debt and cutting taxes might be more of a priority.....though if Brexit is the great success you expect, there might be cash for some pre-electoral spending, if the govt hangs on for 3-4 yrs.

 

Good timing, though, if interest rates are on the rise.

 

35 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The EU's own paper on how a hard border can be avoided.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

 

Thanks, interesting stuff (only had a quick skim through the executive summary).

 

There are some good ideas in there, but it is a recipe for a "low-friction border", as the report phrases it - certainly not the free movement of goods and people as now.

So, even with some good tech/organisational solutions, there would be border checks on people and goods, inspections by roving inspectors and an increase in red tape.

 

If we end up with something like this, there's certainly still a risk of idiot dissident republicans using it as a pretext to launch attacks - and idiot loyalist extremists retaliating, fueling an escalation.

Hopefully not. Hopefully 20+ years of peace means there's no longer the well of community support for such bigots to draw on.

It would still be better to find a way of avoiding taking such a risk, even if it is a small one - not to mention all the extra inspections and red tape (I thought leaving the EU was supposed to reduce red tape, not increase it?)

Edited 1 March 2018 by Alf Bentley

[Rogstanley]

43 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

Largely thanks to increase in dividend tax receipts. Turns out taxing business more does work after all. Who would have thought

 

He won't increase public spending yet, but you watch, over the next couple of years austerity will gradually fade out. Tax on business will remain slightly higher, public services will go back to normal levels of funding. We will finally be where we should be, only it will have taken ten years to get there, ten wasted years - the decade lost to Tory incompetence.

[Webbo]

9 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Largely thanks to increase in dividend tax receipts. Turns out taxing business more does work after all. Who would have thought

 

He won't increase public spending yet, but you watch, over the next couple of years austerity will gradually fade out. Tax on business will remain slightly higher, public services will go back to normal levels of funding. We will finally be where we should be, only it will have taken ten years to get there, ten wasted years - the decade lost to Tory incompetence.

It's okay Moose, I know you don't mean it.

[Guest MattP]

Where has business been taxed more?

 

Increased receipts doesn't mean you have raised taxes, it's often the opposite. 

Edited 1 March 2018 by MattP

[Realist Guy In The Room]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

Then you'll probably get a parliament that is pro-Brexit (as I explained earlier, constituency wise it was 61-39% leave)

 

What do you do then? 

Punish them forever.  Never let them forget.  Never let a politician from either side speak in public without being challenged.  Refuse to vote on anything, by elections, local elections, general elections.

 

For once in their lives, make them really earn their fvcking money.