Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Every nation or trading bloc protects its domestic economy to varying degrees and in different ways. If they have any sense they then try to mutually reduce their protection vis-à-vis other nations/blocs through free trade agreements as they know that free or freer trade will be mutually beneficial, through competition and comparative advantage, if done the right way. But they'll do this in a carefully calibrated way that won't damage their respective economies by allowing change to be too rapid and harmful or by exposing important but vulnerable sectors to a competitive free market in which they cannot yet hope to thrive unsupported.

 

Some regimes are much more protectionist: Trump seems to be a case in point, yet we're pinning our future free trade hopes on the likes of him, China and a few other distant major trading nations. Most national economies are not big enough for us to achieve trade growth sufficient to replace significant trade loss in our main market - the EU. Other nations might be big enough to make a difference in 20, 50 or 100 years time, but we don't possess a tardis.

 

Of course, if you're opposed to any domestic protection, we could unilaterally eliminate all our tariffs in the hope that Trump or China would allow easy access to their markets for our exporters. Good luck with that! The obvious risk is that cheap imports would undercut domestic suppliers, put many domestic firms out of business and cause a domestic economic crisis..... Seeking free trade is good, but not on any terms regardless.

 

 

Our trade with many non-EU countries already comes under EU-negotiated trade deals by which we'll no longer be covered once we leave - until such time as we negotiate replacement deals:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place (see also the other tabs re. deals partly in place, pending and under negotiation - though some of the latter are stalled)

So, at least in the short-term, all that trade will become more expensive and our firms in those markets will become less competitive overnight in March 2019 or whenever.

 

If you want to claim that the EU is poor at negotiating trade deals and we could do much better on our own, have a look at the list of US and Chinese trade agreements. Both lists are much shorter:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_free-trade_agreements

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements#China,_People's_Republic_of

 

Citing the low percentage of firms trading with the EU ignores the "multiplier" effect and how many purely domestic businesses depend wholly or partially on export firms (often quite large firms).

Just imagine a hypothetical scenario where the Sunderland Nissan works became uncompetitive in EU export markets and closed down. What impact would that have on the following:

- Domestic suppliers of machinery/components for the Nissan plant?

- A local supplier of agency labour?

- A local firm of accountants with contracts to do the books of local components suppliers?

- Local builders/tradesmen hired to build, renovate or decorate the homes of Nissan employees?

- Everything from furniture stores to travel agents dependent on trade from the workforce?

- Pubs, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers or toy shops local to the plant or in the city centre?

I don’t have time too respond to all of this Alf I’m off out for and hour or so, but regarding the Nissan car plant. We will have to subsidies to help them remain competitive, we will be putting an import tax on majority of EU products that will have to go towards this until a solution/trade agreement can be achieved. Nissan will have a competitive edge in this country in the mean time. The latest figures I can find for Nissan in the EU are 53.2% in 2014 in 2017 Sunderland car plant  produced £507,000 units. As a pure example if we had to subsidise 260,000 cars at £5,000 a piece it would cost £1.3 billion. How much would the treasury make with the same hit on car imports?

• The value of exports totalled £31.5 billion in 2016, but imports totalled £40.3 billion, so a trade deficit of £8.8 billion was recorded

so assuming figures remained at the same level we would still be better off, the problem is friction.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Best thing about Brexit will be the Atlanticist’s faces when they realise they have enabled JC and McDonnell to make Stalin look like a ****ing anarchist.

I genuinely won’t care, I’ve said it before I would prefer a Labour socialist country outside of the EU than this faux government ruled by European overlords.

If Corbyns labour are democratically elected and is the first to benefit from our sovereignty then good luck them.

[Strokes]

16 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Yet that isn't how EU countries or citizens appear to view the matter. Quite the opposite, in fact.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/931c512e-be33-11e7-b8a3-38a6e068f464

 

"A close look at public opinion around Europe... reveals rising popular support for the EU [and] support for a tough EU line towards the UK... there is next to no pressure on EU27 governments to be gentle with the British."

I can’t read that article could you copy it all please? It’s contrary to what is happening in elections all over the continent though as it seems euroscepticism is on the rise so it should make an interesting read.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870029/eu-news-brexit-eurosceptic-europe-map-vote-election-germany-czech-republic-austria-latest

Edited 4 March 2018 by Strokes

[leicsmac]

Further to this discussion and some of it earlier (Corbyn/May/Iran/Saudi), found a fantastic quote by George Orwell which sums up pretty much my entire feelings on the matter. Though it only mentions nationalists, it could also equally apply to nations or subsets within nations, tbh:

 

"All nationalists have the power of not seeing resemblances between similar sets of facts. A British Tory will defend self-determination in Europe and oppose it in India with no feeling of inconsistency. Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage - torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, the bombing of civilians - which does not change its moral colour when it is committed by 'our' side... The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them."

Edited 4 March 2018 by leicsmac

[Webbo]

I like this one.

 

England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during God save the King than of stealing from a poor box.

[Rogstanley]

53 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I can’t read that article could you copy it all please? It’s contrary to what is happening in elections all over the continent though as it seems euroscepticism is on the rise so it should make an interesting read.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870029/eu-news-brexit-eurosceptic-europe-map-vote-election-germany-czech-republic-austria-latest

I'm not going to breach their copying rules but you can read it without a subscription by accessing via a google search, so try this: https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=O16cWtOmJZLXgQb3kJ-oBw&q=Taking+European+views+on+Brexit+into+account+&oq=Taking+European+views+on+Brexit+into+account+&gs_l=psy-ab.12...1361.1361.0.2016.1.1.0.0.0.0.82.82.1.1.0....0...1..64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.cmwvtvcYfhI

 

[leicsmac]

Orwell was certainly a man of ranging views, that's for sure. A proper anti-totalitarian, too.

 

Sounds like he had it about right in that feeling pride in your own nationality is ok, but not letting it blind you to any of the acts of that nation and to so keep consistent while examining them.

 

 

[Strokes]

43 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

I'm not going to breach their copying rules but you can read it without a subscription by accessing via a google search, so try this: https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=O16cWtOmJZLXgQb3kJ-oBw&q=Taking+European+views+on+Brexit+into+account+&oq=Taking+European+views+on+Brexit+into+account+&gs_l=psy-ab.12...1361.1361.0.2016.1.1.0.0.0.0.82.82.1.1.0....0...1..64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.cmwvtvcYfhI

 

https://qz.com/1070501/bertelsmann-stiftung-eu-opinion-survey-brexit-france-german-italian-referendums/

Some interesting stuff in there, It seems a lot of people would like there own say and to have referendums on membership, even though they would vote remain.

I couldn’t find the sample size of this study though, I’m on my phone and it’s beginning to hurt my eyes.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Strokes said:

I don’t know but if i suffered penalties because of poor decision by that clubs inability to retain members after said members were requesting reform. I’d probably consider my own membership.

But it was the other members refusing greater reforms. The members are the club.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

I like this one.

 

England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during God save the King than of stealing from a poor box.

I don't think this is true though. I think the one thing intelectuals don't like though is the ruination of some national symbols and acts. For example the way our football fans behave abroad cheapens the whole brand of the st George's flag they stand behind. It is the sort of drunken oafishness at which Britain excels that brings nothing but shame and embarrassment.

[Rogstanley]

16 minutes ago, Strokes said:

https://qz.com/1070501/bertelsmann-stiftung-eu-opinion-survey-brexit-france-german-italian-referendums/

Some interesting stuff in there, It seems a lot of people would like there own say and to have referendums on membership, even though they would vote remain.

I couldn’t find the sample size of this study though, I’m on my phone and it’s beginning to hurt my eyes.

I don't think EU citizens views on the EU are relevant to this discussion. What matters is their view on brexit, and from what I've read they overwhelmingly want a tough stance taken against us.

 

Can't say I'm surprised by that, we're the ones leaving after all. If Scotland had have left the UK would there have been much love left between us? Probably not. Trade statistics tend to play 2nd fiddle to emotions in these situations. I imagine the common attitude towards us on the continent is along the lines of "fvck them".

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

But it was the other members refusing greater reforms. The members are the club.

Cameron only met the council president and commission president for talks. It wasn’t negotiated by the members as far as I am aware.

[Stadt]

Orwell's best characteristic was his self awareness, he was willing to criticise both (then even more polarised) left wing and right wing ideologies. I never really warmed to studying his works at A level but I'm reading 1984 at the moment and he was a fantastic author.

[Vardinio'sCat]

8 hours ago, Milo said:

Couldn’t be bothered to quote the previous million posts...

 

...but, with respect, you don’t know for a fact that we’ll be worse off outside the EU. You are guessing that we will be. 

 

Nobody knows - fact. 

 

Nobody knows anything, eh? Are you Micheal Gove.

 

Trade experts are doing more than guessing.

 

In the short term we will be worse off, because it will take a while for all those amazing trade deals to come through. They take years to negotiate, and we don't have the manpower to do them all at once, because we have delegated that responsibility to the EU for so long, and they are bloody complicated.

 

If we accept that our trade deals elsewhere will eventually more than compensate for the trade loss with the EU (which I certainly don't), 10 or 15 or 20 years down the line we might end up ahead. Govt minister Dominic Raab said as much on Radio 5 this morning.

 

The amount of trade done basically hinges on the sizes of the economies involved and the distance between them, there is plenty of evidence for that if you care to look, so the prospects for vastly improving our situation are limited.

 

[Vardinio'sCat]

3 hours ago, Webbo said:

I like this one.

 

England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during God save the King than of stealing from a poor box.

 

Those lefties are so bitchy eh. 

[Vardinio'sCat]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

https://qz.com/1070501/bertelsmann-stiftung-eu-opinion-survey-brexit-france-german-italian-referendums/

Some interesting stuff in there, It seems a lot of people would like there own say and to have referendums on membership, even though they would vote remain.

I couldn’t find the sample size of this study though, I’m on my phone and it’s beginning to hurt my eyes.

 

Better the devil you know eh.

 

My understanding is that support for EU membership went up after we voted to leave, and that matches what I have read previously.

 

It isn't that sexy a thing, the EU, but I believe that there are actually people in other countries that publicly support it and extol some of its (unsexy) virtues. Unlike in the UK, where folks are either pretty ambivalent or seriously anti.

 

Kudos for putting in the time to argue your position, even if I disagree with plenty of what you say.

 

 

[Guest]

Interesting from willetts. Certainly something is needed. Unlike with health, where the years it will take will simply kick the can down the road when action is needed now, a royal commission is probably needed to look at this issue. It seems obvious to me that the baby boomers need to be hit given that they've allowed the creation of an economy to suit only themselves through their votes.

[Milo]

8 hours ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

Nobody knows anything, eh? Are you Micheal Gove.

Nobody knows what will happen, because it hasn’t happened before. 

 

Everyone can guess, but that’s all they’re doing 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Milo said:

Nobody knows what will happen, because it hasn’t happened before. 

 

Everyone can guess, but that’s all they’re doing 

Surely though you'd accept that there's a difference between blind guessing and experts utilising their knowledge and experience to formulate a model and estimate likely outcomes? Otherwise the whole of science is pointless based on your theory.

[Nick]

13 hours ago, Webbo said:

I like this one.

 

England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during God save the King than of stealing from a poor box.

I kinda fall into that bracket. I'm proud of tonnes of things that are English cultural customs, from pubs and real ale to craftsmanship and invention but I'm not proud to be English particularly and find sections of English people embarrassing and they range from people that use the flag in the name of hooliganism and racism to the inherited wealthy and their aristocratic lack of understanding for the real world and am deeply uncomfortable with historical British foreign policy. I also hate the national anthem - wouldn't sing it and want it changed to something more appropriate. 

 

 

 

[Milo]

44 minutes ago, toddybad said:

1 hour ago, Milo said:

Nobody knows what will happen, because it hasn’t happened before. 

 

Everyone can guess, but that’s all they’re doing 

Surely though you'd accept that there's a difference between blind guessing and experts utilising their knowledge and experience to formulate a model and estimate likely outcomes? Otherwise the whole of science is pointless based on your theory.

Honestly, the only thing that I accept is that the experts are likely to have an agenda, one way or another, and their models will reflect that agenda. 

 

The amount of noise is incredible, and if there is a truth, then it is drowned out. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Milo said:

Honestly, the only thing that I accept is that the experts are likely to have an agenda, one way or another, and their models will reflect that agenda. 

 

The amount of noise is incredible, and if there is a truth, then it is drowned out. 

 

 

[Milo]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/07/official-george-osbornes-project-fear-warnings-eu-referendum/

 

 

 

Your point??

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, Milo said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/07/official-george-osbornes-project-fear-warnings-eu-referendum/

 

 

 

Your point??

 

Your point?

[Milo]

Just now, Buce said:

 

6 minutes ago, Milo said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/07/official-george-osbornes-project-fear-warnings-eu-referendum/

 

 

 

Your point??

 

Your point?

 

I was responding to toddybads post. 

 

My my point is that for every remain expert that trots out the negatives of leaving the EU, there will be a leave expert doing the opposite. 

 

The original point made by toddybad in this exchange is that we should trust the experts. I disagree.