Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Sampson]

6 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

What? do you actually think Franco was a communist?

No not for a second. I was using him as an example of dictators from both sides.

 

Pinochet was an evil populist nutter too. I didn't mention him because I was specifically talking about the Leftist dictators, but very similar things apply to Hitler, Mussolini or Pinochet or whoever. The point is sincerity and steadfast unflinching from ideals are not good things and it's often the leaders who genuinely think they are making a better world who are the most destructive as they cannot see the flaws in their own ideology and will make any argument suit their ideology rather than specifically thinking through all sides of the argument on any particular issue. It's something we all do to an extent but people who think they are sincerely creating a better world through a set ideology are so much worse at it and so much more destructive.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

No not for a second. I was using him as an example of dictators from both sides.

 

Pinochet was an evil populist nutter too. I didn't mention him because I was specifically talking about the Leftist dictators, but very similar things apply to Hitler, Mussolini or Pinochet or whoever. The point is sincerity and steadfast unflinching from ideals are not good things and it's often the leaders who genuinely think they are making a better world who are the most destructive as they cannot see the flaws in their own ideology and will make any argument suit their ideology rather than specifically thinking through all sides of the argument on any particular issue. It's something we all do to an extent but people who think they are sincerely creating a better world through a set ideology are so much worse at it and so much more destructive.

On that we do agree. Refusal to compromise and the ideal you mention have been responsible for a lot of trouble in the past.

 

And what makes it doubly annoying is that then if someone genuinely does want to make a better world and do it the right way, then they get caught in the crossfire.

[Wymsey]

Was Russia behind the Salisbury nerve agent attack?

[leicsmac]

The finest cutting-edge journalism reveals the secret message of a book written 200 years ago that everyone with half a brain knew already!

[Bellend Sebastian]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

The finest cutting-edge journalism reveals the secret message of a book written 200 years ago that everyone with half a brain knew already!

We've had quite enough of experts, thank you, and indeed, anybody that knows anything about anything for that matter.

 

Whilst we're on the subject of intellectual elites, I hope these cope well with prison:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-43320121

 

But a temporary disabling of JRM's support base, oh well

 

Edit: I was well and truly beaten to the punch on this one, wasn't I? Still, good news is always worth repeating

Edited 7 March 2018 by Bellend Sebastian

[Buce]

1 hour ago, David Guiza said:

 

Worst ever Beatles tribute band. Yoko is looking rough. 

 

Makes you proud to be British.

[Rogstanley]

1 hour ago, David Guiza said:

 

Worst ever Beatles tribute band. Yoko is looking rough. 

The state of those lot

 

The guy on the far right with his "cam on then you Muslim cants" posture while wearing a three piece suit is my favourite I think but a special mention to beardy who definitely looks proud of our poets.

[David Guiza]

38 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Makes you proud to be British.

 

32 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

The state of those lot

 

The guy on the far right with his "cam on then you Muslim cants" posture while wearing a three piece suit is my favourite I think but a special mention to beardy who definitely looks proud of our poets.

Churchill would be proud that his 'V for Victory' lives on

[Buce]

[Wymsey]

Edited 7 March 2018 by Wymeswold fox

[leicsmac]

Regardless of other other politics, would be interested in hearing folks take on what Ms Black had to say about this particular topic, especially as the UK is about to entertain a regime that is burdened with, shall we say, a certain amount of misogyny:

 

https://www.facebook.com/Mhairi.Black.SNP/videos/1463694787093313/

[lgfualol]

15 hours ago, David Guiza said:

 

Worst ever Beatles tribute band. Yoko is looking rough. 

These lot probably see themselves as "the master race", too. Lol. 

[Guest]

1.8% pay rise for MPs.

Their pay rises have outstripped the public sector every year.

[leicsmac]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-africa-white-farms-land-seizure-anc-race-relations-a8234461.html

 

This is more a world news thing, but anyway...

 

As much as apartheid was loathsome, it seems that SA seems intent on swapping one type of autocracy for another.

[Fox Ulike]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-africa-white-farms-land-seizure-anc-race-relations-a8234461.html

 

This is more a world news thing, but anyway...

 

As much as apartheid was loathsome, it seems that SA seems intent on swapping one type of autocracy for another.

Interesting to see how the consequences of European imperialism continue to have a direct effect on world events.

 

This land was taken from them in the 1600s through to the 1800s. The people who originally grabbed the land for these farms never paid for it; so I suppose there's a case for saying that they shouldn't receive compensation.

 

I do agree with you though.  It's naïve of South Africa to think that they can just 'fix' the mistakes of history that are 200+ years old.

[Buce]

24 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Interesting to see how the consequences of European imperialism continue to have a direct effect on world events.

 

This land was taken from them in the 1600s through to the 1800s. The people who originally grabbed the land for these farms never paid for it; so I suppose there's a case for saying that they shouldn't receive compensation.

 

I do agree with you though.  It's naïve of South Africa to think that they can just 'fix' the mistakes of history that are 200+ years old.

 

The same will happen as happened in Zimbabwe - the farms will go to rack and ruin and the country will end up importing food.

[Fox Ulike]

13 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

The same will happen as happened in Zimbabwe - the farms will go to rack and ruin and the country will end up importing food.

Possibly. It's a long-term policy though I guess.

 

Zimbabwe had 10 years of declining GDP after their land reform. But, what else could they do? I read that 0.6% of the population owned 70% of the land or something like that. You have to break that chain of inequality - otherwise it will be there forever.

 

We talk a lot on here about wealth redistribution so, I'm looking at this as maybe one nation just trying to be pro-active about actually doing it?

 

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Possibly. It's a long-term policy though I guess.

 

Zimbabwe had 10 years of declining GDP after their land reform. But, what else could they do? I read that 0.6% of the population owned 70% of the land or something like that. You have to break that chain of inequality - otherwise it will be there forever.

 

We talk a lot on here about wealth redistribution so, I'm looking at this as maybe one nation just trying to be pro-active about actually doing it?

 

 

Back in the early eighties, I spent some time travelling with two Rhodesian brothers whose family owned a farm. Their family are all dead now, murdered in the name of 'Land Reform'. And it wasn't 'wealth distribution' - the land went to cronies of Mugabe, not ordinary people, who had no idea how to farm it so it all went to seed and reverted to wilderness. The same will happen in SA, mark my words.

[Wymsey]

Heard about this earlier.

 

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/protest-held-leicester-against-violence-1314571

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Back in the early eighties, I spent some time travelling with two Rhodesian brothers whose family owned a farm. Their family are all dead now, murdered in the name of 'Land Reform'. And it wasn't 'wealth distribution' - the land went to cronies of Mugabe, not ordinary people, who had no idea how to farm it so it all went to seed and reverted to wilderness. The same will happen in SA, mark my words.

I have the same fear as you do.

 

It's hard to not be misanthropic when you see the oppressed stepping up and looking to become as their oppressors were.

[leicsmac]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43330498

 

Good grief, how thinly veiled does the threat have to be?

[Sharpe's Fox]

Lifting sanctions on Russia would be the best thing to do. The Russian people are strong and proud with a strong belief in social justice, removing sanctions helps them the most. Give the oligarchs no excuse to blame others for the problems Russians face. 

[Buce]

 

Calais 'could be 10 times worse than Irish border' after Brexit

Boss of French port says customs and sanitary checks could lead to 30-mile tailbacks

 

The boss of the port of Calais has said there could be tailbacks up to 30 miles in all directions and potential food shortages in Britain if a Brexit deal involves mandatory customs and sanitary checks at the French ferry terminal.

Jean-Marc Puissesseau made an impassioned plea to Theresa May and Michel Barnier to put plans in place immediately to avert congestion in Calais and Dover, where bosses have already warned of permanent 20-mile tailbacks.

At the same time a leading politician for the Calais region said the problems in France would be 10 times worse than at the Irish border post.

At a private meeting at the European parliament, Xavier Bertrand, a former French health minister and the president of the Hauts-de-France political region, said politicians needed to grasp the magnitude of the problem.

 

“I know Ireland is going to be a real problem, but please remember the economic issues in Ireland are 10 times smaller than what is going to happen here,” he said. “This is a black scenario, but it is going to get darker and darker,” he said, urging politicians in Brussels and London to take urgent action by setting up working groups and listening to business.

Bertrand angrily denounced those who had power to influence the Brexit outcome. It was not right that economic operators should be expected to “sit on their hands waiting very anxiously for something to happen”.

 

At the same meeting, Puissesseau said both sides would be affected by the problems at the ports, with suppliers from the UK trying to get their goods through strict EU controls treated no better than those from a developing country.

“The UK is part of the 21st century. But this takes us back 100 years. This is sad,” he said. “From Brexit day, 100% of our traffic will be from outside the EU. I tell you honestly that GB will be a third country, this frightens me. There’s such a long history between the UK and EU.”

His message to May and Barnier was to “be intelligent” on the economy. “At the moment, 70% of food imported comes from the EU. Even if that goes down to 50% after Brexit because of controls, it still needs to flow smoothly; people still need to eat,” he said. “If there are delays it could end up rotting on the side of the road.”

Calais has embarked on a three-year €700m (£625m) expansion plan at the port with new docks to accommodate longer and wider ferries.

“We based our calculation on the growing population in the UK. We thought if there were more and more people, then their needs for food, cars, everything, increases and traffic will increase and we need to prepare for that,” said Puissesseau. “But then Brexit comes along and we have a new problem.

“I’m not sure the two negotiators on both sides of the Channel take into account the important position of Dover and Calais ports.”

At peak, the ports have the capacity to process between 250 and 300 trucks an hour and delays could mean 15-mile tailbacks building up over 10 hours.

He said Calais could return to the havoc of July 2015 when truckers were trapped in their cabs for three days in searing heat with 30-mile queues from Calais to Dunkirk, 25 miles inland to St Omer and 20 miles west to Boulogne. “I am worried about the slowdown of traffic if there are controls. Imagine 2m trucks being controlled in Calais,” he said, in reference to the 4.3m trucks that use the port in both directions a year.

Other big businesses at the meeting, including Mars, DHL and Airbus, echoed the concerns of the French.

DHL said it might look at a new train route from Maidstone and Lille. “We looked at this 20 years ago but did nothing with it, but if we have major problems at the port we will be looking for a solution away from the port,” said Patrick Boone, the head of DHL’s road network, Europe.

Airbus reiterated its threat to leave the UK if it does not get clarity on border arrangements soon.

“We don’t make cheese or lamb,” said Pascal Belmin, the head of EU regulatory affairs at Airbus. “But we have problems too. The wings are made in the UK. We need the parts to flow. Some parts cross the border three times.”

Airbus also needs its staff to be able to move freely around its sites in Europe.

 

Mars called for continued regulatory alignment and said the cost of divergence in environment and food processing standards could be huge to an industry that generates €1tn in revenue and hundreds of thousands of jobs. “By no means should we create differences,” said Andreas Georg, its strategic sourcing director.

Government data shows that after Brexit, 185,000 traders will be making customs declarations for the first time. “That is a lot of learner drivers, a formidable educational task,” said James Hookham, the deputy chief executive of the Freight Trade Association.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/customs-checks-will-cause-huge-tailbacks-warns-calais-port-boss

 

 

 

[Buce]

Brexit opponents raise alarm over bleak impact analysis reports

Previously leaked document finds poor economic growth in all models for future UK-EU relationship

 

Anti-Brexit campaigners have seized on a bleak Whitehall assessment of the economic impact of leaving the European Union, published following a battle over government secrecy.

MPs voted in January for the document to be released in full, but its publication was resisted by the Brexit secretary, David Davis.

The cross-party Brexit select committee issued the document, which was prepared to aid thinking inside government about possible scenarios, on Thursday.

As leaks had suggested, government number crunchers found that economic growth would suffer under any of the existing models for a future relationship with the EU – a Norway-type European Economic Area (EEA) model; a free trade agreement; or trading on the basis of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules alone.

Under the worst scenario – a WTO-type arrangement – GDP could decline by a cumulative 7.7% over 15 years, the analysis found; while under an EEA deal it would be 1.6%.

 

The committee’s chair, the Labour MP Hilary Benn, said: “The results of this analysis, undertaken by the government with the aim of quantifying the potential impact of leaving the EU on the British economy, are already largely in the public domain in one form or another.

“Allowing this information to be considered in its full context, rather than selectively quoted, will help properly to inform public debate about how the figures were arrived at and what the economic effects of Brexit might be.

“The analysis suggests there will be an adverse effect on the economy of the UK and all its regions, and that the degree of impact will depend on the outcome achieved in the negotiations.”

However, pro-Brexit MPs questioned the credibility of the forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, who chairs the backbench European Research Group, said the research had been “so widely leaked and ridiculed for its approach that it is of little consequence”.

Whitehall officials warn in the document that forecasts are highly uncertain, given the “unprecedented” nature of the deal the government hopes to strike, but say economic forecasts will be necessary to inform the negotiations.

 

The international trade secretary, Liam Fox, upped the ante on Thursday as he told business groups at the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference that the EU27 was acting like a “gang”.

“The idea of punishing Britain is not the language of a club, it’s the language of a gang,” Fox said. “We need to begin this argument by putting politics aside and do what is in the economic interests of the people we represent.”

 

The Democratic Unionist party’s Westminster leader, Arlene Foster, also toughened her language, attacking the EU’s hardening stance on trade and the Irish border at the same event.

In a speech criticising the European commission’s “bad faith” on the border issue, Foster hit out at the view of Brussels leaders that failure to accept proposals for keeping the border open would encourage a return of terrorism – which, she said, was tantamount to a threat.

She told the conference: “I do object, in the strongest terms, to people who have limited experience of the Troubles in Northern Ireland throwing threats of violence around as some kind of bargaining chip in the negotiating process. To do so is an insult to the people of Northern Ireland who have worked so hard to bring peace to our country.

“I can remember the evening when the IRA shot my father [and] in bloodstained state he crawled into our kitchen. I remember the day the IRA bombed my school bus severely injuring the girl sitting beside me. When I talk about the border in a Brexit scenario, I don’t speak about some far away land; I speak about home.”

The Whitehall Brexit analysis points to potential border checks as one of the “non-tariff barriers” that are the “most material consideration” in assessing the potential costs of post-Brexit trade.

In the retail sector, for example, officials calculate that these non-tariff barriers could be equivalent to the EU slapping tariffs of up to 20% on British exports, the document suggests – with chemicals facing tariffs well above 10%.

 

This analysis helps to explain why Theresa May said in her speech last week that Britain was keen to remain under the auspices of some key EU regulatory bodies.

The document points out that officials have built a new economic model to assess the long-term impacts of changes to trade relationships, underlining the fact that the analysis does not simply rehash the Treasury’s “project fear” forecasts from the referendum campaign.

Stephen Doughty, a Labour member of the committee, said: “Now the public can see for themselves the hugely damaging impact of the reckless course the government is pursuing.”

As already reported, the analysis suggests the long-term gains from striking new trade deals with non-EU countries – a central plank of the pro-Brexit case – could be just 0.2%-0.7% of GDP. That would probably be dwarfed by the losses from a looser relationship with the EU, officials believe.

However, Aarti Shanker, of the thinktank Open Europe, played down the scale of the expected downturn, saying the UK government could “use other domestic

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/08/bleak-brexit-impact-analysis-published-by-parliament

[Guest]

20 hours ago, Buce said:

Brexit opponents raise alarm over bleak impact analysis reports

Previously leaked document finds poor economic growth in all models for future UK-EU relationship

 

Anti-Brexit campaigners have seized on a bleak Whitehall assessment of the economic impact of leaving the European Union, published following a battle over government secrecy.

MPs voted in January for the document to be released in full, but its publication was resisted by the Brexit secretary, David Davis.

The cross-party Brexit select committee issued the document, which was prepared to aid thinking inside government about possible scenarios, on Thursday.

As leaks had suggested, government number crunchers found that economic growth would suffer under any of the existing models for a future relationship with the EU – a Norway-type European Economic Area (EEA) model; a free trade agreement; or trading on the basis of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules alone.

Under the worst scenario – a WTO-type arrangement – GDP could decline by a cumulative 7.7% over 15 years, the analysis found; while under an EEA deal it would be 1.6%.

 

The committee’s chair, the Labour MP Hilary Benn, said: “The results of this analysis, undertaken by the government with the aim of quantifying the potential impact of leaving the EU on the British economy, are already largely in the public domain in one form or another.

“Allowing this information to be considered in its full context, rather than selectively quoted, will help properly to inform public debate about how the figures were arrived at and what the economic effects of Brexit might be.

“The analysis suggests there will be an adverse effect on the economy of the UK and all its regions, and that the degree of impact will depend on the outcome achieved in the negotiations.”

However, pro-Brexit MPs questioned the credibility of the forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, who chairs the backbench European Research Group, said the research had been “so widely leaked and ridiculed for its approach that it is of little consequence”.

Whitehall officials warn in the document that forecasts are highly uncertain, given the “unprecedented” nature of the deal the government hopes to strike, but say economic forecasts will be necessary to inform the negotiations.

 

The international trade secretary, Liam Fox, upped the ante on Thursday as he told business groups at the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference that the EU27 was acting like a “gang”.

“The idea of punishing Britain is not the language of a club, it’s the language of a gang,” Fox said. “We need to begin this argument by putting politics aside and do what is in the economic interests of the people we represent.”

 

The Democratic Unionist party’s Westminster leader, Arlene Foster, also toughened her language, attacking the EU’s hardening stance on trade and the Irish border at the same event.

In a speech criticising the European commission’s “bad faith” on the border issue, Foster hit out at the view of Brussels leaders that failure to accept proposals for keeping the border open would encourage a return of terrorism – which, she said, was tantamount to a threat.

She told the conference: “I do object, in the strongest terms, to people who have limited experience of the Troubles in Northern Ireland throwing threats of violence around as some kind of bargaining chip in the negotiating process. To do so is an insult to the people of Northern Ireland who have worked so hard to bring peace to our country.

“I can remember the evening when the IRA shot my father [and] in bloodstained state he crawled into our kitchen. I remember the day the IRA bombed my school bus severely injuring the girl sitting beside me. When I talk about the border in a Brexit scenario, I don’t speak about some far away land; I speak about home.”

The Whitehall Brexit analysis points to potential border checks as one of the “non-tariff barriers” that are the “most material consideration” in assessing the potential costs of post-Brexit trade.

In the retail sector, for example, officials calculate that these non-tariff barriers could be equivalent to the EU slapping tariffs of up to 20% on British exports, the document suggests – with chemicals facing tariffs well above 10%.

 

This analysis helps to explain why Theresa May said in her speech last week that Britain was keen to remain under the auspices of some key EU regulatory bodies.

The document points out that officials have built a new economic model to assess the long-term impacts of changes to trade relationships, underlining the fact that the analysis does not simply rehash the Treasury’s “project fear” forecasts from the referendum campaign.

Stephen Doughty, a Labour member of the committee, said: “Now the public can see for themselves the hugely damaging impact of the reckless course the government is pursuing.”

As already reported, the analysis suggests the long-term gains from striking new trade deals with non-EU countries – a central plank of the pro-Brexit case – could be just 0.2%-0.7% of GDP. That would probably be dwarfed by the losses from a looser relationship with the EU, officials believe.

However, Aarti Shanker, of the thinktank Open Europe, played down the scale of the expected downturn, saying the UK government could “use other domestic

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/08/bleak-brexit-impact-analysis-published-by-parliament