Corona Virus

[goose2010]

1 minute ago, bmt said:

Also if you completely locked the world down you could wait until all cases were resolved and actually kill the virus. Maybe difficult but theres going to be a global crash anyway so at least then you could control it.

little bit of an understatment there. 

 

 

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, bmt said:

Also if you completely locked the world down you could wait until all cases were resolved and actually kill the virus. Maybe difficult but theres going to be a global crash anyway so at least then you could control it.

This comes from animals. It would return.

[bmt]

Just now, Nod.E said:

You're right. 

But your speaking in the past tense tells you everything you need to know. It's too late. 

The opportunity to contain ended ages ago. 

I agree in which case we could do a phased lockdown of different areas in order to slow down the spread rate (which we all know is about to explode, regardless of whether we hide it by only testing hospitalised patients).

[Lionator]

2 minutes ago, bmt said:

Also if you completely locked the world down you could wait until all cases were resolved and actually kill the virus. Maybe difficult but theres going to be a global crash anyway so at least then you could control it.

It's impossible to control it unfortunately. Lockdowns are panic decisions based on spiralling numbers, they're good to lower the burden on healthcare systems but it'll just rise again once you lift the lockdown.

[bmt]

1 minute ago, goose2010 said:

little bit of an understatment there. 

 

 

Obviously but just pointing out there are more options than just do nothing.

 

1 minute ago, Dahnsouff said:

This comes from animals. It would return.

SARS came from animals. MERS came from animals.

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, bmt said:

Obviously but just pointing out there are more options than just do nothing.

 

SARS came from animals. MERS came from animals.

and SARS and MERS are comparable because....

[ithuriel]

Limiting the spread was pretty near impossible when you think of what this virus does and when it might have started, with the Chinese local authorities ignoring it or trying to cover it up, see the story of the Doctor that died of this bug.

Highly contagious, not showing symptoms in the first week and spreading faster than anticipated.

Fact is, that no longer matters, it is out and is not going away anytime soon.

 

[bmt]

Just now, Dahnsouff said:

and SARS and MERS are comparable because....

Because they are coronaviruses that came from animals and had one major outbreak? In fact SARS is very, very similar. So comparable things didn't come back, and also we would have time to work on a vaccine.

[KFS]

We’re now in lock down in New York. No street enforcement yet but things are closing (gyms, cinemas) and curfews on night life. Really surprised that the U.K. is taking a different approach given bigger countries are taking the lock down method.

 

Stay safe chaps

[StanSP]

 

 

[Dahnsouff]

I thought the transmission of COVID-19 is way beyond what SARS or MERS had to offer. I do agree they serve as a coronavirus family example, but it is not directly comparable due to efficacy of COVID-19.

Perhaps the origin of SARS/MERS meant they were stamped on earlier, but seeing as COVID-19 was China, that seems unlikely. 

 

[bmt]

Just now, Dahnsouff said:

I thought the transmission of COVID-19 is way beyond what SARS or MERS had to offer. I do agree they serve as a coronavirus family example, but it is not directly comparable due to efficacy of COVID-19.

Perhaps the origin of SARS/MERS meant they were stamped on earlier, but seeing as COVID-19 was China, that seems unlikely. 

 

COVID-19 has a very high human to human transfer but they suspect it was all from one animal to human transmission (like SARS and MERS which is why I used them), so it won't necessarily happen again.

[Guest Kopfkino]

Trust the Americans to be panic buying guns whilst we're fighting over loo roll and pasta

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Were only really measuring cases who present with severe symptoms now I think.  If you tlel everyone else to stay at home, you won't detect them.

Basically this.

 

Some interesting figures based on death rates. 

 

Germany 0.2%

Norway 0.2%

Denmark 0.4%

Diamond Princess 0.5% (adjusted due to a lot of over 80's being onboard)

South Korea 0.8%

 

United Kingdom 2.3%

United States 1.7%

Italy 7.3%(!!!)

Spain 3.6%

 

While the top populations probably have better healthcare systems which will lower their death rates, they're also doing something else. TESTING. Ultimately this gives a far more accurate understanding of how lethal COVID-19 is, within a good healthcare system and also can support in quarantining at risk people, or people who have a diagnosis. It allows you to be ahead of the disease. 

 

The 7.3% death rate in Italy, while terrifying is more a sign that this is absolutely rife in Italy, and is probably in the hundreds of thousands of cases including mild and asymptomatic cases. COVID-19 will not kill 7 in every 100 people it infects, rather of the 100 severe cases which are presented to the healthcare system, 7 will die. 

 

This is why we should be disappointed that we've given up on testing here in the UK. Maybe the chief medical officer is confident enough that the death rate is way below that 3.4% WHO figure (he thinks it's 0.5-1%), that case numbers really don't matter that much. What matters is reducing burden on the healthcare system, because that is when the death rate will start to climb. The truth is if you had unlimited medical resources, COVID-19 isn't that much more dangerous than any other flu pandemic. However, as soon as you push the limit, it becomes horrible. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, Kopfkino said:

Trust the Americans to be panic buying guns whilst we're fighting over loo roll and pasta

Well if someone is taking your toilet roll, how else you gonna shoot em? 

[bmt]

1 minute ago, Lionator said:

Basically this.

 

Some interesting figures based on death rates. 

 

Germany 0.2%

Norway 0.2%

Denmark 0.4%

Diamond Princess 0.5% (adjusted due to a lot of over 80's being onboard)

South Korea 0.8%

 

United Kingdom 2.3%

United States 1.7%

Italy 7.3%(!!!)

Spain 3.6%

 

While the top populations probably have better healthcare systems which will lower their death rates, they're also doing something else. TESTING. Ultimately this gives a far more accurate understanding of how lethal COVID-19 is, within a good healthcare system and also can support in quarantining at risk people, or people who have a diagnosis. It allows you to be ahead of the disease. 

 

The 7.3% death rate in Italy, while terrifying is more a sign that this is absolutely rife in Italy, and is probably in the hundreds of thousands of cases including mild and asymptomatic cases. COVID-19 will not kill 7 in every 100 people it infects, rather of the 100 severe cases which are presented to the healthcare system, 7 will die. 

 

This is why we should be disappointed that we've given up on testing here in the UK. Maybe the chief medical officer is confident enough that the death rate is way below that 3.4% WHO figure (he thinks it's 0.5-1%), that case numbers really don't matter that much. What matters is reducing burden on the healthcare system, because that is when the death rate will start to climb. The truth is if you had unlimited medical resources, COVID-19 isn't that much more dangerous than any other flu pandemic. However, as soon as you push the limit, it becomes horrible. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

There's two parts to this. One is clearly that it is rife but the other is that their health system (by all accounts very good in the north of the country) is too swamped to deal with all the serious cases, so those who they don't have an ICU bed for will die. We are giving it the opportunity to run rife here by putting no real precautions in place.

[Lionator]

Just now, bmt said:

There's two parts to this. One is clearly that it is rife but the other is that their health system (by all accounts very good in the north of the country) is too swamped to deal with all the serious cases, so those who they don't have an ICU bed for will die. We are giving it the opportunity to run rife here by putting no real precautions in place.

Yep. I think we'll only lockdown once the healthcare system gets really stretched. 

 

The public need to realise that this cannot be contained and BJ and his pals know this. 

[Guest Kopfkino]

11 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Yep. I think we'll only lockdown once the healthcare system gets really stretched. 

 

The public need to realise that this cannot be contained and BJ and his pals know this. 

Should have done it last October then

Edited 16 March 2020 by Kopfkino

[Jon the Hat]

3 minutes ago, bmt said:

There's two parts to this. One is clearly that it is rife but the other is that their health system (by all accounts very good in the north of the country) is too swamped to deal with all the serious cases, so those who they don't have an ICU bed for will die. We are giving it the opportunity to run rife here by putting no real precautions in place.

People keep saying this - has any other country told people with some pretty mild symptoms to self-isolate for 7 days?  This is real precautions, and in fact I think a lot of people with no symptoms are also seriously reducing their exposure.  The Government doesn't necessairly have to mandate things if people do them anyway.

[foxile5]

The fact that we think the appropriate reaction to a pandemic is to stiffen the upper lip shows the scope of this government's attitude towards caring for its populace.

 

Whilst this virus might not be particularly strong or result in a wealth of deaths it indicates exactly what the government think is a proporitional response in the face of threat. Wiffle about, blow your hair, assault your Mrs and 'keep calm and carry on'.

 

The bloke is a national embarrassment and will continue to be so.

[bmt]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

People keep saying this - has any other country told people with some pretty mild symptoms to self-isolate for 7 days?  This is real precautions, and in fact I think a lot of people with no symptoms are also seriously reducing their exposure.  The Government doesn't necessairly have to mandate things if people do them anyway.

Well I went into Leicester for a bit on Saturday evening and didn't feel that way! But yes hopefully people will act sensibly and limit transmission themselves.

[MC Prussian]

Switzerland prohibits all public and private happenings starting this midnight. All non-essential shops, as well as restaurants, museums, libraries, cinemas, theatres, sports centres, swimming pools to be closed until the 19th of April.

 

Supermarkets, petrol stations, take-aways, rail stations, bank branches, hotels, communal services and offices and post offices stay open.

Many local authorities are only available by phone by now, apart from a few basic services (such as funerals).

 

Hospitals to stay open also, but they have to prioritize their services, non-essential surgeries and therapies to be postponed.

 

It's a lockdown. Borders more or less closed, unless it's for trade, if you're a Swiss coming back or a commuter from a neighboring country.

Unprecedented, wonder how disciplined we'll all be.

 

Schools are closed starting this week, pupils are either staying at home or to be taken care of at school under supervision (in cases where parents can't take over).

Edited 16 March 2020 by MC Prussian

[Lionator]

1 minute ago, foxile5 said:

The fact that we think the appropriate reaction to a pandemic is to stiffen the upper lip shows the scope of this government's attitude towards caring for its populace.

 

Whilst this virus might not be particularly strong or result in a wealth of deaths it indicates exactly what the government think is a proporitional response in the face of threat. Wiffle about, blow your hair, assault your Mrs and 'keep calm and carry on'.

 

The bloke is a national embarrassment and will continue to be so.

Their response is adequate, testing aside. The communication side of it has been appalling though which opens them up for criticism. 

[foxile5]

Just now, Lionator said:

Their response is adequate, testing aside. The communication side of it has been appalling though which opens them up for criticism. 

I'm not certain the response is adequate. Do nothing? Sing happy birthday?

 

It's been delivered by professional snake oil salesmen so it seems purposeful, but really...is it?

[Lionator]

1 minute ago, foxile5 said:

I'm not certain the response is adequate. Do nothing? Sing happy birthday?

 

It's been delivered by professional snake oil salesmen so it seems purposeful, but really...is it?

Their response hasn't been to do nothing has it? 

 

Their plan is open for all to see on the gov.uk website, they've explained the 4 stages of their plan time and time again. 

 

Just because they're not taking drastic action right now, it doesn't mean that they're doing nothing (I hate Johnson, and it pains me to defend him.)