Corona Virus

[leicsmac]

38 minutes ago, nnfox said:

No they haven't. It's impossible. 

 

It seems there are people who carry the virus and are infectious but display no symptoms. When do you test them? What about people who just feel a little unwell for a couple of days  and put it down to stress/mild flu/a cold/something else? 

 

Unless you test your entire population.  That means EVERYONE, every three days then there is no way you can test for all cases.

 

Stats are nice, and if there was a way to do it, then we should do it.  But as there isn't a way to do it then any stats we have are merely a guide and take us away from actually dealing with the problem.

 

At the end of this, there is only one stat that matters which is how many people died.  That is the metric by which relevant success will be measured.

They've made a pretty good go of it here in Korea - over 260,000 tests at the last count. I mean, that's likely not everyone who may have the but it's a damn good go I would think. I'm guessing that includes testing prettymuch everyone, even the asymptomatic, near where a case has been found, just in case.

 

And right now they have a day-by-day case count that is falling rapidly and despite being up there with the most cases outside China, a death count that is among the lowest by percentage anywhere on the planet. Now, that might be entirely coincidental, but I think a part of it is the efficiency with which they have identified and isolated outbreaks as they have happened, as well as keeping their populace informed.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

3 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Am I wrong to think the whole world has gone mad and this isn't a big deal? Can someone who does not have extreme political views explain why I'm currently having to resort to using kitchen roll to wipe my arse? 

No explanation from me, although I do see a gap in the market for the sale of bidet’s

[z-layrex]

6 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Am I wrong to think the whole world has gone mad and this isn't a big deal? Can someone who does not have extreme political views explain why I'm currently having to resort to using kitchen roll to wipe my arse? 

I want to take you to my hospital and show you why this is a big deal.

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

They've made a pretty good go of it here in Korea - over 260,000 tests at the last count. I mean, that's likely not everyone who may have the but it's a damn good go I would think. I'm guessing that includes testing prettymuch everyone, even the asymptomatic, near where a case has been found, just in case.

 

And right now they have a day-by-day case count that is falling rapidly and despite being up there with the most cases outside China, a death count that is among the lowest by percentage anywhere on the planet. Now, that might be entirely coincidental, but I think a part of it is the efficiency with which they have identified and isolated outbreaks as they have happened, as well as keeping their populace informed.

Sorry for asking but isn’t that directly proportional to your first sentence..........

 

s korea is a good example of how low the actual mortality rate is for this ..... still a lot of people dying 

 

7 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Am I wrong to think the whole world has gone mad and this isn't a big deal? Can someone who does not have extreme political views explain why I'm currently having to resort to using kitchen roll to wipe my arse? 

You’re right and wrong. - the world has gone mad but it is a big deal.  That why you’re having to put up with a sore backside ........

[StanSP]

21 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

More bad news

 

Donald Trump tests negative for Coronavirus

 

I'm more inclined to believe he does have it. Can't trust anything he says

 

[nnfox]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

They've made a pretty good go of it here in Korea - over 260,000 tests at the last count. I mean, that's likely not everyone who may have the but it's a damn good go I would think. I'm guessing that includes testing prettymuch everyone, even the asymptomatic, near where a case has been found, just in case.

 

And right now they have a day-by-day case count that is falling rapidly and despite being up there with the most cases outside China, a death count that is among the lowest by percentage anywhere on the planet. Now, that might be entirely coincidental, but I think a part of it is the efficiency with which they have identified and isolated outbreaks as they have happened, as well as keeping their populace informed.

South Korea seem to be doing well but aren't over half of all cases in one fairly small region? It's easier to have more thorough testing if you can concentrate your resources in a small geographic area.

 

One of the problems for widespread testing in the UK is that it seems fairly well spread out around the whole country.  There just isn't the resources available and the NHS would be spread too thin. You can throw massive amounts of money at the problem, but in the short term, you can't magic qualified healthcare assistants out of your backside.  We have to do the best we can with the resources we have available to us at this time.

 

The advice seems to advocate being cautious.  If you think you might have it, self isolate.  Don't wait to be tested.  I don't see a massive issue with that approach.

[Heathrow fox]

1 hour ago, Footballwipe said:

I dunno, and this isn't personal towards you, but schools are there to educate kids safely, not look after them like a crèche till they're 16.

 

If the call is made to close schools for safety reasons then parents will have to make arrangements. I'm sorry, having children is not mandatory. You chose to have kids. I detest the "who's going to look after my children?" attitude of some people. You. You look after your children. They are your children.

This wouldn’t have been such an issue 40/50 years ago.Mum would’ve looked after the kids.

[st albans fox]

Peston was right 

[reynard]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Peston was right 

He was and the question is surely why wait?

With the governement's basic admission they don't have enough ventilators and that they need many many more really can't see a reason to hold back on this.

[joachim1965]

49 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I'm more inclined to believe he does have it. Can't trust anything he says

 

The thing that gets me is, he has been exposed so why wasn't he self isolating. 

[reynard]

Not only over 70s to be quaranited but also all those under 70 with pre-existing health conditions according to press reports.

They need to be completely clear what this entails if true. are we talking about all people with the following?

Asthma

High Blood Pressure

Cardio Vascular issues

All cancer sufferers

etc etc

 

If so how are these people supposed to hold down jobs pay mortgages and other bills? A lot more clarity is going to be required.

 

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Sorry for asking but isn’t that directly proportional to your first sentence..........

 

s korea is a good example of how low the actual mortality rate is for this ..... still a lot of people dying 

 

 

Maybe, we're not really going to know until this is all over. By comparison Korea has really low mortality rates, though that could indeed just be down to testing deficiencies in other nations rather than anything else.

 

58 minutes ago, nnfox said:

South Korea seem to be doing well but aren't over half of all cases in one fairly small region? It's easier to have more thorough testing if you can concentrate your resources in a small geographic area.

 

One of the problems for widespread testing in the UK is that it seems fairly well spread out around the whole country.  There just isn't the resources available and the NHS would be spread too thin. You can throw massive amounts of money at the problem, but in the short term, you can't magic qualified healthcare assistants out of your backside.  We have to do the best we can with the resources we have available to us at this time.

 

The advice seems to advocate being cautious.  If you think you might have it, self isolate.  Don't wait to be tested.  I don't see a massive issue with that approach.

Nearly 85% of all the cases in Korea are in one fairly small region (the city of Daegu and the region of Gyeongsang-do, and I'm inclined to think that is an effect of the success the Koreans have had with testing and isolation rather than a cause of it - though I might be wrong.

 

There's a fair point about the resources and the affluent East Asian nations seem like they were better prepared for all of this anyway, but I do think that perhaps the UK government could still be be doing more in terms of the testing regimen and communication - surely they're not that far behind Korea in terms of qualified staff and ability to reach citizens with a clear message?

Edited 15 March 2020 by leicsmac

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, reynard said:

Not only over 70s to be quaranited but also all those under 70 with pre-existing health conditions according to press reports.

They need to be completely clear what this entails if true. are we talking about all people with the following?

Asthma

High Blood Pressure

Cardio Vascular issues

All cancer sufferers

etc etc

 

If so how are these people supposed to hold down jobs pay mortgages and other bills? A lot more clarity is going to be required.

 

There are many people in this country who are labelled as having ‘asthma’ when their symptoms are very mild. 
 

i’m one of them but haven’t used my inhaler for ages and can’t recall the last time I actually replaced one of them .... but I’m sure I will be told I have to self isolate on the basis that I’m on the list’. 
 

I’ll refuse ! 

 

and my mother in law who is 80 and very active while 100% refuse to be ‘locked down’ for an extended period. There will be many hundreds of thousands the same as her. 

[nnfox]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Maybe, we're not really going to know until this is all over. By comparison Korea has really low mortality rates, though that could indeed just be down to testing deficiencies in other nations rather than anything else.

 

Nearly 85% of all the cases in Korea are in one fairly small region (the city of Daegu and the region of Gyeongsang-do, and I'm inclined to think that is an effect of the success the Koreans have had with testing and isolation rather than a cause of it - though I might be wrong.

 

There's a fair point about the resources and the affluent East Asian nations seem like they were better prepared for all of this anyway, but I do think that perhaps the UK government could still be be doing more in terms of the testing regimen and communication - surely they're not that far behind Korea in terms of qualified staff and ability to reach citizens with a clear message?

You may well be correct.  I imagine jumping on a relatively concentrated population early might be a good way of limiting the spread.  I'll confess to not knowing enough about Korean infrastructure and how people move around in the country.

 

I've known people who live in Northampton to drive to Birmingham for a meeting in the morning, then drive to London for another meeting before having to go back to Birmingham for yet another meeting and then go home - all in the same day.

 

The North-West seems to be least affected at the moment and that's probably got a lot to do with people carrying it from London to Birmingham to Manchester to Glasgow/Edinburgh.

 

The lack of official government communication on a daily basis is my biggest criticism at this time.  The overall strategy makes sense to me in our circumstances.  History will judge how good it actually was.

[reynard]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

There are many people in this country who are labelled as having ‘asthma’ when their symptoms are very mild. 
 

i’m one of them but haven’t used my inhaler for ages and can’t recall the last time I actually replaced one of them .... but I’m sure I will be told I have to self isolate on the basis that I’m on the list’. 
 

I’ll refuse ! 

 

and my mother in law who is 80 and very active while 100% refuse to be ‘locked down’ for an extended period. There will be many hundreds of thousands the same as her. 

Our son is in the same boat as you re. asthma. I'm sure you work as does he and many others. If you can't work because of a government instruction then I think the goverment will have to look at financial compensation.

 

Your mother-in-law may be fine now but if she goes out and contracts the viurs she will quite possibly be taking up a hopsital bed space which could have been avoided.

It is a tough call and not going to get any easier for many months.

 

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, nnfox said:

You may well be correct.  I imagine jumping on a relatively concentrated population early might be a good way of limiting the spread.  I'll confess to not knowing enough about Korean infrastructure and how people move around in the country.

 

I've known people who live in Northampton to drive to Birmingham for a meeting in the morning, then drive to London for another meeting before having to go back to Birmingham for yet another meeting and then go home - all in the same day.

 

The North-West seems to be least affected at the moment and that's probably got a lot to do with people carrying it from London to Birmingham to Manchester to Glasgow/Edinburgh.

 

The lack of official government communication on a daily basis is my biggest criticism at this time.  The overall strategy makes sense to me in our circumstances.  History will judge how good it actually was.

Well, there are two main rules, really:

 

- both private and public transport are very popular and the public transport infrastructure is massive and varied (bus, train and subway all very big)

- everyone wants to go to Seoul (or sometimes just their nearby city)

 

That does add up to a lot of people moving around, and often in close proximity to each other. What has happened over here, however, is a staged shuttering of certain non-essential businesses which has resulted in less people using the transport infrastructure (I think). That along with going after the hotspots as they arise has helped too, I reckon.

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

Our son is in the same boat as you re. asthma. I'm sure you work as does he and many others. If you can't work because of a government instruction then I think the goverment will have to look at financial compensation.

 

Your mother-in-law may be fine now but if she goes out and contracts the viurs she will quite possibly be taking up a hopsital bed space which could have been avoided.

It is a tough call and not going to get any easier for many months.

 

I’m older than you probably think - the govt can’t cover my loss as there are 25 people who would be losing their jobs if I wasn’t able to work for 4 months but I take your point in general - and I can answer that they simply won’t as they basically couldnt afford to do it across the workforce. Unless someone in govt comes up with a plan for business then a huge number will go bust (inc mine) - had this occurred two/three years ago then would be more survivable but the general drop in profits etc over the past couple of years due to brexit uncertainty means this comes at the worst possible time. I’m prepared to make a loss of a few hundred grand if I have to but I will run out of cash before I get there. My business value is all tied up in my stock. (If only it were toilet rolls!)
 

as far as the elderly are concerned, we all know how obstinate many become as the years roll by - they simply won’t accept that they are in danger 

[VLC86]

40 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

The thing that gets me is, he has been exposed so why wasn't he self isolating. 

Because the layer of creosote on his face is a good protector.

[Guest Fktf]

3 hours ago, nnfox said:

 Johnson can't win.  If he goes off on one and locks down the country from day 1 then the media wheel out a bunch of scientists that inform us why that's a bad idea and he should be making science backed decisions.  Do as he's done with scientists flanking him then he is questioned why he isn't shutting the country down immediately.

 

Nobody knows everything about this virus, the correct way, or at least the best way of dealing with this won't be known by anyone on the planet until it's all over and mortality rates can be compared

The assumption here is that all scientists agree on a way forward. We don't. A lot of us think the mortality rate is going to be higher with the current plans compared to alternatives. 

[reynard]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I’m older than you probably think - the govt can’t cover my loss as there are 25 people who would be losing their jobs if I wasn’t able to work for 4 months but I take your point in general - and I can answer that they simply won’t as they basically couldnt afford to do it across the workforce. Unless someone in govt comes up with a plan for business then a huge number will go bust (inc mine) - had this occurred two/three years ago then would be more survivable but the general drop in profits etc over the past couple of years due to brexit uncertainty means this comes at the worst possible time. I’m prepared to make a loss of a few hundred grand if I have to but I will run out of cash before I get there. My business value is all tied up in my stock. (If only it were toilet rolls!)
 

as far as the elderly are concerned, we all know how obstinate many become as the years roll by - they simply won’t accept that they are in danger 

I think this is being lost, understandably, at the moment. I don't however, see a government fully commited to protecting the economy as well as the health of the nation. I'd like to see things like a period of time where no rent can be paid, no national insurance contributions by companies made, no VAT paid, business rates for all businesses temporarily cancelled etc.

As you say cash flow is going to be a major issue very quickly.

Good luck with your business. I hope you get through the next few months.

[Bert]

14 hours ago, bovril said:

It really won't. 

Just my opinion like 

[ithuriel]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

I'm more inclined to believe he does have it. Can't trust anything he says

 

Mr President, I'm afraid you have the Virus.

     No, I know about Viruses and I can tell you I am no virus.

...Yes Mr President, you do have the virus.

     No, I do not have a virus, I'm 110% healthy and have met no  Italians or Chinese this past month, stop spreading fake news!

[String fellow]

The government keeps using phrases like 'at the right time' and 'in the next few weeks'. If they think that the right time to introduce more draconian measures will be in the next few weeks, that'll be too late. The glacial pace of the response of our government to such a fast-moving threat is extremely worrying.    

[Countryfox]

[Guest Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Sorry for asking but isn’t that directly proportional to your first sentence..........

 

s korea is a good example of how low the actual mortality rate is for this ..... still a lot of people dying 

 

You’re right and wrong. - the world has gone mad but it is a big deal.  That why you’re having to put up with a sore backside ........

 

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Maybe, we're not really going to know until this is all over. By comparison Korea has really low mortality rates, though that could indeed just be down to testing deficiencies in other nations rather than anything else.

 

South Korea's figures show that like 30% of cases were in people aged between 20-29. Now that's a massive number and is probably a result of testing picking up cases that wouldn't have been otherwise but it also suggests that South Korea got quite 'lucky' with its outbreak in that it spread amongst the young (I believe that religious sect has a lot of young followers) with only 3% cases in over 80s.