Corona Virus

[coolhandfox]

People comparing countries approaches is like comparing apples and pears.

 

Different demographics, geography, social and economic circumstances can have a massive effect on the best discison for each country.

[Paninistickers]

56 minutes ago, reynard said:

Our son is in the same boat as you re. asthma. I'm sure you work as does he and many others. If you can't work because of a government instruction then I think the goverment will have to look at financial compensation.

 

Your mother-in-law may be fine now but if she goes out and contracts the viurs she will quite possibly be taking up a hopsital bed space which could have been avoided.

It is a tough call and not going to get any easier for many months.

 

I think the unwritten point of isolation for the elderly and weak is that, should they choose to break the curfew, treatment will not be available for them

[yorkie1999]

54 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

There are many people in this country who are labelled as having ‘asthma’ when their symptoms are very mild. 
 

i’m one of them but haven’t used my inhaler for ages and can’t recall the last time I actually replaced one of them .... but I’m sure I will be told I have to self isolate on the basis that I’m on the list’. 
 

I’ll refuse ! 

 

and my mother in law who is 80 and very active while 100% refuse to be ‘locked down’ for an extended period. There will be many hundreds of thousands the same as her. 

Having had asthma since I was 7 with the trigger being horse hairs and dust mites, I’ve been on a preventer twice a day ever since but have had a few attacks over the years but maybe I can give a little advice for anyone who gets breathing problems due to the virus. 
1. don’t panic

2. force yourself to calm down by taking slow measured breaths, breathing a through a paper bag helps.

3. Sip milk.

4. don’t try to suck too much air in by taking deep breaths as the air coming out is just as important as the air coming in. Your lungs will only suck air in if there is space and if your airways are blocked the air without oxygen in can’t get out.

[Alf Bentley]

37 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

 

South Korea's figures show that like 30% of cases were in people aged between 20-29. Now that's a massive number and is probably a result of testing picking up cases that wouldn't have been otherwise but it also suggests that South Korea got quite 'lucky' with its outbreak in that it spread amongst the young (I believe that religious sect has a lot of young followers) with only 3% cases in over 80s.

 

That's an interesting figure - and it could be partly or mainly explained by the role of the religious sect, as you suggest.

 

Alternatively (or additionally), the high infection rate among those aged 20-29 could be because that's an age-group that would have more social contact than most others (work, social life). Children might be in contact with as many or more people, but probably no other age group would be.

 

If that is a factor, it might be that (for now, at least) the Koreans got on top of the spread just in time - before it inevitably, if more slowly, spread to larger numbers from older generations who are more likely to get seriously ill.

It could be a wake-up call to European nations that, although few young adults will get seriously ill, they could play a big role in spreading the infection so that it reaches levels that are difficult to control among older groups.  

 

Edited 15 March 2020 by Alf Bentley

[Guest Kopfkino]

9 hours ago, Fktf said:

The models the scientists advising the govt will be put together by mathematicians and experts in viruses, so it is unwise to discount opinions because they're from mathematicians. In fact, many mathematicians are hired by universities exactly because they can model things disease spread, so if anyone can question the modelling were working on, it is the mathematicians. 

 

I'm well aware of that but just being a mathematical modeller means jack shit if you've shit all knowledge about virology and epidemiology. I've spent the last 6 months of my life in data science  producing economic models, some of which use the same techniques as in epidemiology, but it doesn't mean I'd have a scooby about epidemiological modelling. I mean one of the letters signatories is doing a PhD in geometry ffs. Still the BBC has corrected the article to say none of them have subject knowledge. 

 

10 hours ago, Fktf said:

 

I don't buy the strategy isn't herd immunity. If it wasn't, we'd have done what every other country has done and tried more extreme measures to stop the spread. The govt is hardly going to admit this, though, is it? We're keeping schools and universities open because people there are unlikely to die if they catch the virus, so infecting all of them is a great step towards meeting the 60% infection rate we need. Sure, some kids and students might infect elderly relatives, but it is for the common good'

We haven't done it yet because the belief is that it can't be stopped (exactly the same as Germany but nobodies banging on about their strategy being herd immunity) and therefore timing of measures is useful because this is a long-haul. Why because Dominic Cummings thinks he's a smart arse and briefed Robert Peston on something he doesn't understand is that now taken as government policy but one of the people advising the government says its a useful consequence of the virus spreading and is not the strategy. People point to Vallance's interview the other day as being proof but what he said isn't inconsistent with it being a consequence rather than aim. 

 

They've been quite clear why they haven't closed schools because the second-order effects are more costly than the benefits for slowing its spread. That seems pretty reasonable tbh. 

 

 

Its definitely a comms problem for sure, you have to pay really close attention and that's the governments fault. I think its great that people have alternate opinions, that's healthy but not all opinions are created equal and there's a lot of people running their mouths off despite have a huge information asymmetry

[WigstonWanderer]

Why is the UK government left scrambling around begging manufacturers to switch production to hospital ventilators? Matt Hancock says there are 5,000 in the UK at present but that several times that will be needed. They’ve known about SARS, they’ve known about MERS, it was only a matter of time before something nastier came along, surely there should be contingency plans?

 

I’m sure many other countries will be in the same situation (perhaps including Australia for all I know), but it doesn’t excuse the incompetence.

[Vlad the Fox]

On 13/03/2020 at 21:02, Trav Le Bleu said:

Nice explanation about why washing your hands makes a difference to Corona.

 

Might even be better than hand sanitizer. In your face panic buyers, I've got plenty of soap!

Shit should have watched the video first, the mrs has just gone spare at me for using the cathedral city out the fridge. 

[yorkie1999]

4 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Why is the UK government left scrambling around begging manufacturers to switch production to hospital ventilators? Matt Hancock says there are 5,000 in the UK at present but that several times that will be needed. They’ve known about SARS, they’ve known about MERS, it was only a matter of time before something nastier came along, surely there should be contingency plans?

 

I’m sure many other countries will be in the same situation (perhaps including Australia for all I know), but it doesn’t excuse the incompetence.

If you’re a middle manager working in the nhs, what’s more important, your wages or a stockpile of ventilators.

[Guest Fktf]

7 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

I'm well aware of that but just being a mathematical modeller means jack shit if you've shit all knowledge about virology and epidemiology. I've spent the last 6 months of my life in data science  producing economic models, some of which use the same techniques as in epidemiology, but it doesn't mean I'd have a scooby about epidemiological modelling. I mean one of the letters signatories is doing a PhD in geometry ffs. Still the BBC has corrected the article to say none of them have subject knowledge. 

 

We haven't done it yet because the belief is that it can't be stopped (exactly the same as Germany but nobodies banging on about their strategy being herd immunity) and therefore timing of measures is useful because this is a long-haul. Why because Dominic Cummings thinks he's a smart arse and briefed Robert Peston on something he doesn't understand is that now taken as government policy but one of the people advising the government says its a useful consequence of the virus spreading and is not the strategy. People point to Vallance's interview the other day as being proof but what he said isn't inconsistent with it being a consequence rather than aim. 

 

They've been quite clear why they haven't closed schools because the second-order effects are more costly than the benefits for slowing its spread. That seems pretty reasonable tbh. 

 

 

Its definitely a comms problem for sure, you have to pay really close attention and that's the governments fault. I think its great that people have alternate opinions, that's healthy but not all opinions are created equal and there's a lot of people running their mouths off despite have a huge information asymmetry

I get that some people will jump on board despite not having subject knowledge, like the geometry one you mention. But there will be mathematical modellers with a clue about diseases, but even so they will be listed as profs or Drs in mathematics, because that's their dept. I guess the issue with that letter is that we don't have access to that information. 

 

I don't think any scientist is thinking it can be stopped. But we can certainly buy a lot more time than we are currently doing. More time means more prep for hospitals, more time to build ventilators.

 

Providing we don't push the peak into next winter, I haven't seen a reasonable argument for why we're not doing more social distancing. It doesn't have to be schools, I agree that's pretty reasonable.

[Unabomber]

I just got back from Tesco and it wasn’t too bad. I was seeing what people were bulk buying and the weirdest one was a guy had about 8 packets of create your own chicken madras. 

[VLC86]

2 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

I just got back from Tesco and it wasn’t too bad. I was seeing what people were bulk buying and the weirdest one was a guy had about 8 packets of create your own chicken madras. 

I hope he also got loads of toilet roll.

[davieG]

New Government How to wash your hands video.

 

 

[BKLFox]

32 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Why is the UK government left scrambling around begging manufacturers to switch production to hospital ventilators? Matt Hancock says there are 5,000 in the UK at present but that several times that will be needed. They’ve known about SARS, they’ve known about MERS, it was only a matter of time before something nastier came along, surely there should be contingency plans?

 

I’m sure many other countries will be in the same situation (perhaps including Australia for all I know), but it doesn’t excuse the incompetence.

Playing devils advocate where do you stop? Stock up on 20,000+ ventilators at a cos of x in the hope you will need them in the future or spend your budget on something that is required on regular daily use?

The balance in this case it seems was to have 5000 in reserve, had we been hit with a different issue I'm sure some would say why we got 5000 ventilators sitting on the shelves when we need x,y,z it's a constant juggle I guess.

The fact it's highlighted and being addressed is good thou no, also remember that there is a shelf life on medical equipment ok not on these with regards to 'going off' but software and advancements in technology.

[reynard]

if you are self isolating or about  to don't depend upon online grocery shopping. Sainsburys no slots for three weeks near us and my mother down in Worcestershire. My mother-in-law (82) just tried up near Stockport and not a single available slot for the next month!

[reynard]

9 minutes ago, davieG said:

New Government How to wash your hands video.

 

 

Sure that isn't Boris in a costume?

[joachim1965]

8 minutes ago, reynard said:

if you are self isolating or about  to don't depend upon online grocery shopping. Sainsburys no slots for three weeks near us and my mother down in Worcestershire. My mother-in-law (82) just tried up near Stockport and not a single available slot for the next month!

If the virus doesn't get you,  you just starve to death.

Worlds gone mad, there is absolutely no need to panic buy.

[StanSP]

Apparently Trump tried to poach people from Germany working on a vaccine to stop Coronavirus and then make it exclusive to US  

[peach0000]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Why is the UK government left scrambling around begging manufacturers to switch production to hospital ventilators? Matt Hancock says there are 5,000 in the UK at present but that several times that will be needed. They’ve known about SARS, they’ve known about MERS, it was only a matter of time before something nastier came along, surely there should be contingency plans?

 

I’m sure many other countries will be in the same situation (perhaps including Australia for all I know), but it doesn’t excuse the incompetence.

There's plenty of things that 'might' happen in the future. The issue is the NHS has limited resources so it would be impossible to prepare for everything. As for 'begging' companies to switch production to ventilators, that seems like a sensible measure to me. Don't get me wrong, I'm very skeptical of this governments response to this virus but I don't think there's too much to criticise in this matter.

[st albans fox]

7 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Apparently Trump tried to poach people from Germany working on a vaccine to stop Coronavirus and then make it exclusive to US  

‘ Apparently ‘ 

 

I hope that’s not from twitter ?

[bovril]

2 hours ago, Bert said:

Just my opinion like 

Sure, and I don't know any more than you do ultimately.

But everyone seems to agree on one thing which is that this is merely the beginning. 

[ithuriel]

Just had a look on the NHS website and it says you do not need to ring 111 if you have symptoms, just self isolate but with it being that time of year, how do you know if you've got it without any testing, because if you think you've had it and isolate then go out later you are in danger of actually getting it because you will think you are safe and a little complacency will set in because it is human nature and then you have to isolate yet again and not working.

Bit of a rambling rant, just a bit annoyed.

 

Edited 15 March 2020 by ithuriel

[StanSP]

18 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

‘ Apparently ‘ 

 

I hope that’s not from twitter ?

Nope. Well, not directly.

 

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?wtmc=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web

 

(translated)

Quote

 

The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this.

Swipe the United States and Germany, it is because of the corona crisis reportedly an indirect but tangible economic policy debate. The reason: US President Donald Trump tries to lure German scientists who are working on a potential corona vaccine to America with high financial donations or to secure the drug exclusively for his country. WELT AM SONNTAG experienced this in government circles.

The US president allegedly offers the company a large amount to secure its work exclusively. Trump is doing everything possible to get a vaccine for the United States. "But only for the USA," says the federal government.

According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the dispute between the two states is about the company CureVac, which is based in Tübingen and works together with the federally owned Paul Ehrlich Institute for Vaccines and Biomedical Medicines on the production of a vaccine against the virus . Government officials are now negotiating with CureVac.

"The Federal Government is very interested in the fact that vaccines and active substances against the novel corona virus are also being developed in Germany and Europe," confirmed a spokesman for the Ministry of Health WELT AM SONNTAG. "In this regard, the government is in intensive exchange with the company CureVac." In Berlin, one hears, try to keep the company with financial offers. The company itself refused to answer questions.

 

 

[Countryfox]

What a load of bolox !! ...   wtf does this chump know ! ...  I think we should all panic like mad so that people on here have got something to do while the footy is suspended ! .....     distinguished doctor my arse !!!

[Paninistickers]

25 minutes ago, ithuriel said:

Just had a look on the NHS website and it says you do not need to ring 111 if you have symptoms, just self isolate but with it being that time of year, how do you know if you've got it without any testing, because if you think you've had it and isolate then go out later you are in danger of actually getting it because you will think you are safe and a little complacency will set in because it is human nature and then you have to isolate yet again and not working.

Bit of a rambling rant, just a bit annoyed.

 

This question was covered the other day by a virologist. 

 

If you have symptoms, you self isolate. Regardless if it's the first time or iyn multiple  occasions. 

 

It's desirable for us to know personally if we've had it it not,but not a necessity.

[BeardyFox]

2 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

What a load of bolox !! ...   wtf does this chump know ! ...  I think we should all panic like mad so that people on here have got something to do while the footy is suspended ! .....     distinguished doctor my arse !!!

And he's got a girls name.