Corona Virus

[yorkie1999]

50 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

 

Not sure that’s true

 

we observe the rules and regs till end dec but we aren’t a member any longer 

Try telling that the the french customs in Calais. 

[Dario_Rodriguez_]

1 hour ago, Parafox said:

I've been at work today, responding to emergencies so haven't had the chance to read or respond to this. 

Yes, Covid-19 will result in a higher mortality rate as it will cause additional deaths on top of seasonal flu. That's the expectation of medics and the government. People will die, unfortunately but it's (so far) nowhere near the death rate from seasonal flu and no-one gets panicky about that.

By the way, I'm 63 I'm definitely NOT your son. I dislike being patronised.

Another 360 odd in the ground in Italy. A country on full lockdown to prevent the spread, Sounds like you are full of it to me lad.

 

[Paninistickers]

16 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Leadership is what we need at present, and I'm sorry to say that BoJo, who fancies himself as Winston Churchill MkII, doesn't appear to be showing much at present. Folk abroad seeing pictures of the Cheltenham Festival going ahead, as well as today's Bath Half-Marathon, must be little surprised, to put it mildly. 

I'm just about the last person to be on Johnson's side, but Churchillian leadership is so yesterday. 

 

21st century management is about effective decision making. 

 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Paninistickers said:

I'm just about the last person to be on Johnson's side, but Churchillian leadership is so yesterday. 

 

21st century management is about effective decision making. 

Or forced decision making if he gets it right.

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Or forced decision making if he gets it right.

I have no dog in the political fight but I’m pretty sure that whatever happens, boris won’t get any thanks and will judged to have  either  stumbled across the right path to take or be responsible for terrible judgement calls. 

[Ric Flair]

17 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

An Iceland somewhere opening it’s doors for an hour for elderly only tomorrow apparently.

Legends! I hope they fill their boots with findus crispy pancakes

[Ashley]

Two weeks ago every ****er was saying be kind due to Caroline Fleck dying. Now every ****er is fighting each other over toilet roll and cans of beans etc. Lol. 

[Lionator]

The reason that the UK is taking a different approach to everyone else is that we're the only ones who are facing up to the realistic issue that we face here (Germany have too to be fair).

 

You will probably see Italian cases decrease in the next two weeks but then what happens after that? They open everything up again and it starts again, then two to three months later you have to lock everything down again and again until a vaccine is created. You cant lock down for months at a time, the economic effects would be more devastating than if you let everybody get infected. We're playing the long game and it'll probably mean that we can return to some level of normality once that initial peak has passed and although it will cause problems and disruption through to 2021, we have a plan which can manage that. The issues will start arising if our healthcare system is overburdened but I'm confident that we've got this right.

[StanSP]

1 minute ago, Ashley said:

Two weeks ago every ****er was saying be kind due to Caroline Fleck dying. Now every ****er is fighting each other over toilet roll and cans of beans etc. Lol. 

Did you expect anything less?

[Ashley]

Just now, StanSP said:

Did you expect anything less?

No

[Toddybad]

4 minutes ago, Lionator said:

The reason that the UK is taking a different approach to everyone else is that we're the only ones who are facing up to the realistic issue that we face here (Germany have too to be fair).

 

You will probably see Italian cases decrease in the next two weeks but then what happens after that? They open everything up again and it starts again, then two to three months later you have to lock everything down again and again until a vaccine is created. You cant lock down for months at a time, the economic effects would be more devastating than if you let everybody get infected. We're playing the long game and it'll probably mean that we can return to some level of normality once that initial peak has passed and although it will cause problems and disruption through to 2021, we have a plan which can manage that. The issues will start arising if our healthcare system is overburdened but I'm confident that we've got this right.

I think the point for everybody else in the world is that the kitchen sink is being thrown at a vaccine so if you accept the economic and societal disruption for a year you might save hundreds of thousands of lives. Might. But surely worth a try?

[Uranyl Yellow]

Just now, Lionator said:

The reason that the UK is taking a different approach to everyone else is that we're the only ones who are facing up to the realistic issue that we face here (Germany have too to be fair).

 

You will probably see Italian cases decrease in the next two weeks but then what happens after that? They open everything up again and it starts again, then two to three months later you have to lock everything down again and again until a vaccine is created. You cant lock down for months at a time, the economic effects would be more devastating than if you let everybody get infected. We're playing the long game and it'll probably mean that we can return to some level of normality once that initial peak has passed and although it will cause problems and disruption through to 2021, we have a plan which can manage that. The issues will start arising if our healthcare system is overburdened but I'm confident that we've got this right.

A vaccine could be quite a while to develop and test. Using blood plasma from those who have recovered is more likely in the short term. It has problems, and would likely only be used on the severely ill, but it's what has been used in viral outbreaks through the ages with some degree of success.

[Toddybad]

22 minutes ago, MattP said:

Or forced decision making if he gets it right.

If a government has one policy which they communicate on a Thursday, then spend days getting called out by experts worldwide before their own people start ignoring them by shutting down major events, then change their policy, most people would say the change of policy was forced upon them.

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

I think the point for everybody else in the world is that the kitchen sink is being thrown at a vaccine so if you accept the economic and societal disruption for a year you might save hundreds of thousands of lives. Might. But surely worth a try?

How many people has austerity killed apparently? Wouldn’t draconian measures that restrict movement and therefore income also put the poorest at risk? 
I don’t see how we can just take these decisions lightly, every action or decision carries a consequence.

[Toddybad]

10 minutes ago, Uranyl Yellow said:

A vaccine could be quite a while to develop and test. Using blood plasma from those who have recovered is more likely in the short term. It has problems, and would likely only be used on the severely ill, but it's what has been used in viral outbreaks through the ages with some degree of success.

Was used in China and they gave Italy 31 tons of plasma the other day.

[Toddybad]

Just now, Strokes said:

How many people has austerity killed apparently? Wouldn’t draconian measures that restrict movement and therefore income also put the poorest at risk? 
I don’t see how we can just take these decisions lightly, every action or decision carries a consequence.

Laughter not really appropriate then is it?

[Strokes]

Just now, Toddybad said:

Laughter not really appropriate then is it?

I can usually find amusement in most situations.

[Uranyl Yellow]

11 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Was used in China and they gave Italy 31 tons of plasma the other day.

Not really surprising. Although antiquated, it had decent results against many viral outbreaks of old before the use of antivirals and vaccines became common.

[Super_horns]

Blimey this is worrying if true.

 

Could last till Spring NEXT year..

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised/ar-BB11dSJ1?ocid=spartanntp

[Toddybad]

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[Lionator]

3 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Blimey this is worrying if true.

 

Could last till Spring NEXT year..

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised/ar-BB11dSJ1?ocid=spartanntp

Even in a best case scenario, until there's a vaccine then there'll be a threat. It won't be constant for a year and I'm sure we'll find a way to return to normality once that first peak has passed but this is going to be hanging over us for at least 9-12 months.

[st albans fox]

34 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

If a government has one policy which they communicate on a Thursday, then spend days getting called out by experts worldwide before their own people start ignoring them by shutting down major events, then change their policy, most people would say the change of policy was forced upon them.

You could argue that stating that they would allow events to take place this weekend before shutting tings down sometime this coming week would make everyone decide to shut down immediately. They want some level of infection in the community for their modelling to work. As has been noted above. 

they say that they are being guided by behavioural science on this ..... so don’t take everything they say as gospel about the future .....they seem to be drip feeding the bad news in advance 

 

55 minutes ago, Lionator said:

The reason that the UK is taking a different approach to everyone else is that we're the only ones who are facing up to the realistic issue that we face here (Germany have too to be fair).

 

You will probably see Italian cases decrease in the next two weeks but then what happens after that? They open everything up again and it starts again, then two to three months later you have to lock everything down again and again until a vaccine is created. You cant lock down for months at a time, the economic effects would be more devastating than if you let everybody get infected. We're playing the long game and it'll probably mean that we can return to some level of normality once that initial peak has passed and although it will cause problems and disruption through to 2021, we have a plan which can manage that. The issues will start arising if our healthcare system is overburdened but I'm confident that we've got this right.

Italy could keep a lid on this by closing the borders once their isolation is over and not re opening until a vaccine is found ........ would be an interesting exercise, especially when it came to diplomats etc.  I agree that isolating the virus now whilst it is flying around the rest of the world is going to simply re open another outbreak afterwards though this could end up being delayed until autumn in an environment like Italy. . The Chinese seem to have decided that two week isolation for incoming travellers is their way of dealing with that. 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

The herd immunity comment by the CSO was not explained too well. I suspect he meant it as being a by product of the current strategy as we move into next winter and the virus re surfaces. 
 

but govt comms doesn’t seem to be very good at the moment 

[Guest Kopfkino]

Good to see we're back to discussion by Guardian links. Tres bien

[Guest Fktf]

15 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The herd immunity comment by the CSO was not explained too well. I suspect he meant it as being a by product of the current strategy as we move into next winter and the virus re surfaces. 
 

but govt comms doesn’t seem to be very good at the moment 

The whole herd immunity thing is a bit of a red herring in this debate. It doesn't really matter how the govt or cso dress up their current approach in comms. The key point is a lot of scientists are seriously questioning whether we a following a good strategy, regardless of what the rationale behind it is.