Coronavirus Thread

[pleatout]

11 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

Trust all the new FT scientists are watching the Richard Dimbleby Lecture with Dame Sarah Gilbert as she describes creating a Covid-19 vaccine in less than a year.

Just goes to show what actually happened behind the scenes and not what the media reported or as she quotes what the celebrity tik tok scientists fed their followers.

I could watch clever people explaining clever stuff all day.  I'm sure it'll be on iplayer.  Worth a watch.  The anti-vaxers wont watch but if you are one of those that is/was worried it was developed in a bit of a rush, and are a a bit hesitant.  She explains the how/why it was done in months not years without compromising safety.

[yorkie1999]

Just now, pleatout said:

I could watch clever people explaining clever stuff all day.  I'm sure it'll be on iplayer.  Worth a watch.  The anti-vaxers wont watch but if you are one of those that is/was worried it was developed in a bit of a rush, and are a a bit hesitant.  She explains the how/why it was done in months not years without compromising safety.

So could I, but right now, britains poshest brothels seems a lot more appealing

[pleatout]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

So could I, but right now, britains poshest brothels seems a lot more appealing

Different level of disease 

[Zear0]

5 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

So could I, but right now, britains poshest brothels seems a lot more appealing

Can you pay extra and not have to wear a mask? 

[Mike Oxlong]

5 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

So could I, but right now, britains poshest brothels seems a lot more appealing

Hands

Face 

Knob 

[fox_favourite]

7 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

So could I, but right now, britains poshest brothels seems a lot more appealing

Where keeping 2m apart is easier for some than others….

[BKLFox]

21 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Nightingale hospitals were there for a worse case scenario than actually happened.  If there had been a million patients all needing hospital treatment, which would have been better - Nightingale hospitals with beds and roofs and heating and essential equipment, but only a skeleton staff doing their best with auxiliaries and temps who can at least do more basic tasks that nurses haven't time for - or patients in car parks or sent home with no medical help whatever?

 

They weren't needed.  That's good news.  They were there if they had been needed.

I would add that they could have possibly been adapted & filled with refrigeration units, if we remember the scenes in US when there were tent units in hospital carparks where their dead were being stored at an alarming rate. The nightingales went up around this period if i remember correctly & at a time when numbers over here were going up dramatically also.

As you mention They weren't needed.  That's good news.  They were there if they had been needed which is better than not being there.

[Soup]

11 hours ago, BKLFox said:

Trust all the new FT scientists are watching the Richard Dimbleby Lecture with Dame Sarah Gilbert as she describes creating a Covid-19 vaccine in less than a year.

Just goes to show what actually happened behind the scenes and not what the media reported or as she quotes what the celebrity tik tok scientists fed their followers.

Didn't she say that boosters for all were not  necessary? And we should get the vaccine rolled out around the world before we start jabbing the young again? Obviously she was ignored or she got that wrong.

[BKLFox]

26 minutes ago, Soup said:

Didn't she say that boosters for all were not  necessary? And we should get the vaccine rolled out around the world before we start jabbing the young again? Obviously she was ignored or she got that wrong.

She did your correct but you refer to something she said in early September & said at the time based on the information they had she didn't think we needed to give a 3rd jab to all but basically go through the same cycle as giving the 1st ie the old, those with weakened immune systems...however this has since changed due to the fluid nature of Covid & the introduction of the new Omicron varient (24th Nov) means that tweaks to our approach need to be made & until more is known we need to be cautious & take steps to slow down the spread of the new varient.

This isn't her being ignored or going back on what she previously said, this is her (& Scientists) adapting to changes in the way Covid is shaping up, which is 100% what should be happening & not staying static as Covid isn't.

 

The 2nd part remains the same in that vaccines need to be rolled out quicker around the world & as i understand it the UK is doing its part in gettings its own people vaccinated whilst securing & supplying vaccines for the "poorer" countries.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

She did your correct but you refer to something she said in early September & said at the time based on the information they had she didn't think we needed to give a 3rd jab to all but basically go through the same cycle as giving the 1st ie the old, those with weakened immune systems...however this has since changed due to the fluid nature of Covid & the introduction of the new Omicron varient (24th Nov) means that tweaks to our approach need to be made & until more is known we need to be cautious & take steps to slow down the spread of the new varient.

This isn't her being ignored or going back on what she previously said, this is her (& Scientists) adapting to changes in the way Covid is shaping up, which is 100% what should be happening & not staying static as Covid isn't.

 

The 2nd part remains the same in that vaccines need to be rolled out quicker around the world & as i understand it the UK is doing its part in gettings its own people vaccinated whilst securing & supplying vaccines for the "poorer" countries.

Well, shock horror, it's almost as if science isn't dogma and changes based on the current data we have on it and so must therefore policy decisions...and what proves science (and scientists) wrong is more advanced science.

 

Honestly,  I genuinely cannot understand why that isn't clear yet and why changing minds and courses on something that is inherently dynamic is somehow a bad thing.

Edited 7 December 2021 by leicsmac

[filbertway]

I've come to realise that people "believe" what the government said when it suits their agenda and they don't believe them when it doesn't

 

[SpacedX]

Vaccine monopolies has made cost of global vaccination at least 5 times more expensive than it might have been. COVAX has  struggled to get enough doses and at the speed required, because of the inadequate supply and the fact that rich nations have pushed their way to the front of the queue by willingly paying exorbitant prices. It is absolutely vital that Big Pharma are forced to justify why their vaccines cost more, whilst open competition is also critical to bring down prices and increase supply. All vaccines, old and new, only come down in price once there are multiple competitors in the market. That intellectual property regulations and profit are placed before lives and during a global healthcare crisis is appalling. Johnson and Johnson released real world data in support of their single shot dose which will make a huge difference logistically, it remains to be seen whether their pledges regarding cost are honoured. 

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, filbertway said:

I've come to realise that people "believe" what the government said when it suits their agenda and they don't believe them when it doesn't

 

Never a truer word spoken. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Data from South Africa looking encouraging with regards to hospital admissions and people on ventilation with Omicron in South Africa. Just hope the fat man doesn't bottle it if our case rate gets much higher.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Vaccine monopolies has made cost of global vaccination at least 5 times more expensive than it might have been. COVAX has  struggled to get enough doses and at the speed required, because of the inadequate supply and the fact that rich nations have pushed their way to the front of the queue by willingly paying exorbitant prices. It is absolutely vital that Big Pharma are forced to justify why their vaccines cost more, whilst open competition is also critical to bring down prices and increase supply. All vaccines, old and new, only come down in price once there are multiple competitors in the market. That intellectual property regulations and profit are placed before lives and during a global healthcare crisis is appalling. Johnson and Johnson released real world data in support of their single shot dose which will make a huge difference logistically, it remains to be seen whether their pledges regarding cost are honoured. 

 

 

And the next time something hits, that might not just be appalling - it could be fatal.

[SpacedX]

1 minute ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Data from South Africa looking encouraging with regards to hospital admissions and people on ventilation with Omicron in South Africa. Just hope the fat man doesn't bottle it if our case rate gets much higher.

There is almost zero chance of restrictions before Christmas - remember, in spite of what has gone previously, this is anathema to the current government. 

 

It's still very early to say. Although all the indications from the data returned suggest milder symptoms, this relates to a very young demographic and also, it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere. 

 

We need to proceed cautiously and sagely in terms of policy making (perhaps I should rephrase that), but despite the higher transmissibility and the high number of mutations, it does seem to be less severe than Delta. I think the possibility of any imminent lockdown measure is remote. 

 

The issue is, and to reiterate, whilst infection remains high due to global healthcare inequalities, mutations will continue and this could result in a more dangerous emergent variant in the future than Delta. As was stated earlier this year when someone on this thread pronounced Covid to have "been over four months ago" - this is an enduring global healthcare crisis.

[Babylon]

40 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Well, shock horror, it's almost as if science isn't dogma and changes based on the current data we have on it and so must therefore policy decisions...and what proves science (and scientists) wrong is more advanced science.

 

Honestly,  I genuinely cannot understand why that isn't clear yet and why changing minds and courses on something that is inherently dynamic is somehow a bad thing.

 

Because you are arguing with idiots whose entire lives revolve around looking at something from a year ago, pointing at it and screaming aha look the scientists don't know what they are doing, it's a conspiracy and every little "error" I find proves such. 

[leicsmac]

40 minutes ago, Babylon said:

 

Because you are arguing with idiots whose entire lives revolve around looking at something from a year ago, pointing at it and screaming aha look the scientists don't know what they are doing, it's a conspiracy and every little "error" I find proves such. 

Nah, I can't get there with that level of cynicism yet.

 

Because if it's true and it's the way that people react given these situations as a matter of course then pretty much any situation where science requires near-unanimity on a policy decision is going to be likewise tainted and in the long term that frankly means we're all fvcked.

 

Can't get there.

[Babylon]

43 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Nah, I can't get there with that level of cynicism yet.

 

Because if it's true and it's the way that people react given these situations as a matter of course then pretty much any situation where science requires near-unanimity on a policy decision is going to be likewise tainted and in the long term that frankly means we're all fvcked.

 

Can't get there.

We are, the idiots are overrunning the asylum and politicians are pandering to them votes. 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Babylon said:

We are, the idiots are overrunning the asylum and politicians are pandering to them votes. 

I can think of no compelling argument to the contrary tbh.

 

But I'm not going to give up just yet.

[st albans fox]

3 hours ago, Soup said:

Didn't she say that boosters for all were not  necessary? And we should get the vaccine rolled out around the world before we start jabbing the young again? Obviously she was ignored or she got that wrong.

She may well prove to have been right when everything has gone through the wash.

 

but govt has to balance risk etc and has chosen to go down the booster route as the least worst way forward .......

[leicsmac]

A post from a friend that gives an example of how something like Covid can cause havoc in a way that a lot of people take for granted and many people don't even know exist:

 

"Supply chain issues continue to disrupt the world economy, with not enough shipping containers in the right place, and backlogs in many ports.

Unfortunately, the supply chains are about to deal with a further complication; There is a global shortable of Urea, especially since China has closed most of its foreign exports on October 15th.

Urea is an important ingredient in fertilizer, as well as in Diesel Exhaust Fluid (commonly genericized as AdBlue), a mix of ~1/3 Urea and ~2/3 Deionised Water sprayed into the catalytic exhaust manifold – Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) – of most diesel engines made since 2016 or so.

 

Shortages of DEF are already causing supply issues in South Korea and Australia, and the issue is now spreading to other nations, which are experiencing trucking issues as a result.

Ersatz products such as windshield wiper fluid containing ammonia, or even pure deionised water temporarily swapped in, but the long term damage to trucks (and the environment) is unknown, and such fluids are also now becoming thin on the ground.

Without DEF, trucks are severely limited to a speed of about 10 kph. Some models of trucks can somewhat evade these issues by running the engine very hot whilst stationary for about 15 minutes, but realistically most modern vehicles are going to have serious issues with this shortage.

 

Sadly, the urea concentration in pee is only 9.3 g/L, so piddling in the tank ain't gonna cut it. We can synthesize urea from Ammonia and Carbon Dioxide via the Haber Process, but that's an energy intensive process and Ammonia is already pretty expensive due to historically very high natural gas prices.

 

As both ammonia and urea are constituents of industrial fertilizer, these shortages will have knock-on effects in food production. Hopefully China and other urea-producing nations can be persuaded to increase their exports."

 

The machinery of civilisation is complex, such complexity can only have so much in the way of redundancy, and it honestly doesn't take much to throw it completely out of whack. We take it for granted at our peril.

[st albans fox]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

A post from a friend that gives an example of how something like Covid can cause havoc in a way that a lot of people take for granted and many people don't even know exist:

 

"Supply chain issues continue to disrupt the world economy, with not enough shipping containers in the right place, and backlogs in many ports.

Unfortunately, the supply chains are about to deal with a further complication; There is a global shortable of Urea, especially since China has closed most of its foreign exports on October 15th.

Urea is an important ingredient in fertilizer, as well as in Diesel Exhaust Fluid (commonly genericized as AdBlue), a mix of ~1/3 Urea and ~2/3 Deionised Water sprayed into the catalytic exhaust manifold – Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) – of most diesel engines made since 2016 or so.

 

Shortages of DEF are already causing supply issues in South Korea and Australia, and the issue is now spreading to other nations, which are experiencing trucking issues as a result.

Ersatz products such as windshield wiper fluid containing ammonia, or even pure deionised water temporarily swapped in, but the long term damage to trucks (and the environment) is unknown, and such fluids are also now becoming thin on the ground.

Without DEF, trucks are severely limited to a speed of about 10 kph. Some models of trucks can somewhat evade these issues by running the engine very hot whilst stationary for about 15 minutes, but realistically most modern vehicles are going to have serious issues with this shortage.

 

Sadly, the urea concentration in pee is only 9.3 g/L, so piddling in the tank ain't gonna cut it. We can synthesize urea from Ammonia and Carbon Dioxide via the Haber Process, but that's an energy intensive process and Ammonia is already pretty expensive due to historically very high natural gas prices.

 

As both ammonia and urea are constituents of industrial fertilizer, these shortages will have knock-on effects in food production. Hopefully China and other urea-producing nations can be persuaded to increase their exports."

 

The machinery of civilisation is complex, such complexity can only have so much in the way of redundancy, and it honestly doesn't take much to throw it completely out of whack. We take it for granted at our peril.

Whether the story has any voracity, it highlights that we have ‘sold our soul’ to the Chinese and the Russians.  These countries have huge political influence over the west on the basis of their importance to our way of life. 
 

if Russia invade Ukraine and threatens to shut off the gas supplies if the Europeans object, what is likely to happen ??

[leicsmac]

26 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Whether the story has any voracity, it highlights that we have ‘sold our soul’ to the Chinese and the Russians.  These countries have huge political influence over the west on the basis of their importance to our way of life. 
 

if Russia invade Ukraine and threatens to shut off the gas supplies if the Europeans object, what is likely to happen ??

With all due respect, I think this is missing the point.

 

The supply chain being disrupted affects both user and distributor economically (provided both are of similar economic standing in the first place), and such disruptions can happen much more easily than people might think because they take them for granted.

 

The lament regarding outsourcing production of raw materials is a common one but the simple fact is that these days the world is hugely interconnected in terms of such things and while there's a lot of talk about disrupting supply chains for geopolitical purposes, such measures, when actually carried out. mostly harm all parties involved pretty close to equally in the end (the Oil Crises of the 1970's come to mind).

 

Nature, however, has no such reservations about causing such disruptions, and that is where the real danger lies, not with other humans.

Edited 7 December 2021 by leicsmac

[reynard]

3 hours ago, Line-X said:

There is almost zero chance of restrictions before Christmas - remember, in spite of what has gone previously, this is anathema to the current government. 

 

It's still very early to say. Although all the indications from the data returned suggest milder symptoms, this relates to a very young demographic and also, it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere. 

 

We need to proceed cautiously and sagely in terms of policy making (perhaps I should rephrase that), but despite the higher transmissibility and the high number of mutations, it does seem to be less severe than Delta. I think the possibility of any imminent lockdown measure is remote. 

 

The issue is, and to reiterate, whilst infection remains high due to global healthcare inequalities, mutations will continue and this could result in a more dangerous emergent variant in the future than Delta. As was stated earlier this year when someone on this thread pronounced Covid to have "been over four months ago" - this is an enduring global healthcare crisis.

Agree. Also if it transpires, as seems to be the early indications, that it much more transmissible, then instead of 45k infections per day we could be looking at double even possibly treble that and that will inevitably lead to more hospital admissions.

I agree re pre Christmas but after that we can only wait to see how things pan out.

The last paragraph is 100% spot on. We should be doing more but there are going to be many places where vaccination will be difficult, eg Yemen, Southern Sudan, Syria Afghanistan etc etc. Also the infrastructure in some sub Saharan countries isn't going to make it easy to transport vaccines.