Coronavirus Thread

[dsr-burnley]

37 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Agree with this apart from the bolded. Letting the virus run amok if it does prove to be nasty will result in far more doctor closures and cancers being missed than a lockdown simply because the resources won't be available because they'll be too busy triaging Covid. That's the entire reason they were first proposed and executed.

 

NB. You never did get back to me about that survey regarding Covid and Trump supporters.

 

 

I didn't think your Trump statement was really worth bothering with.  But since you obviously think it was, there are three distinct trends that correlate with each other.  

 

1.  People in the south east were more likely to vote for Trump.

2.  People in the south east were more likely to die of Covid.

3.  People in the south east live in the south east.

 

There third one is blindingly obvious of course, but that's because it's the crux.  Certain people look at the places with the highest covid rates, ie. the south east, and assume that any difference between their health record and that of say New England or the West Coast must be because of the way they voted.  Other people reckon that their geography was a much greater relevant factor.  I don't expect you believe that the reason New York had a much worse rate in 2020 than the south east was because of future voting intentions; geographical factors came into play.  As they do now.

 

It is perfectly possible that Trump voters are dying in greater numbers than Biden voters because Trump voters are more likely to refuse the vaccine.  More than possible - I'd say it's probable.  But not to the extent of 2.6 times.  

 

Here's a poser for you.  In the last week, the south eastern states have had by far the lowest coronavirus death rates.  Louisiana, Mississippi, Arizona and Florida have between them had 28 deaths.  Arizona, with a population only a quarter of those four together, had 454 deaths.  Is it because Arizona voted for Biden, or are there other factors in play, such as the fact that the wave has subsided in the south east but not in the west?

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I didn't think your Trump statement was really worth bothering with.  But since you obviously think it was, there are three distinct trends that correlate with each other.  

 

1.  People in the south east were more likely to vote for Trump.

2.  People in the south east were more likely to die of Covid.

3.  People in the south east live in the south east.

 

There third one is blindingly obvious of course, but that's because it's the crux.  Certain people look at the places with the highest covid rates, ie. the south east, and assume that any difference between their health record and that of say New England or the West Coast must be because of the way they voted.  Other people reckon that their geography was a much greater relevant factor.  I don't expect you believe that the reason New York had a much worse rate in 2020 than the south east was because of future voting intentions; geographical factors came into play.  As they do now.

 

It is perfectly possible that Trump voters are dying in greater numbers than Biden voters because Trump voters are more likely to refuse the vaccine.  More than possible - I'd say it's probable.  But not to the extent of 2.6 times.  

 

Here's a poser for you.  In the last week, the south eastern states have had by far the lowest coronavirus death rates.  Louisiana, Mississippi, Arizona and Florida have between them had 28 deaths.  Arizona, with a population only a quarter of those four together, had 454 deaths.  Is it because Arizona voted for Biden, or are there other factors in play, such as the fact that the wave has subsided in the south east but not in the west?

I thought that the proportionality argument (that is to say, deaths per x number of people) regarding differences between states who overwhelmingly voted Trump and those who went the other way deserved a response and I think that it still does seeing as it hasn't really been addressed here. Ditto the argument that the poll didn't control for the time element when it was taken at a time when Covid had been felt across the entire country.

 

I'd agree that geographical factors have a significant part to play in the way Covid has hit various parts of the US, but I don't like the idea of overlooking the simple statistical fact that Trump voters are much more likely to be vaccine refusers and therefore more susceptible to the disease and it being rejected out of hand when it appears self-evident. Both are significant and the type of thought that Trump espouses about the entire thing does have a part to play in terms of responsibility for it.

 

Looking at your penultimate paragraph, I think our points of view on the matter are actually pretty close to agreement there.

Edited 9 December 2021 by leicsmac

[Raj]

8 hours ago, Izzy said:

Noddy question here - apologies.

 

I keep reading about this COVID 'pass' that you need so I downloaded the NHS app and did all the ID checks etc.

 

On the app it now shows the dates and types of vaccines I had for the first two and the booster.

 

Is that it? Is that my 'pass' or am I missing something? 

I've always just shown the info above where it shows your vaccines and it's been satisfactory.

I've also got a paper version from nhs and all it shows is the dates of my vaccines

[Rain King]

Anyone heard if any strange goings on with the PCR test at the moment?

 

I know to different people (they don't know each other) who have this week had several positive lateral flow tests but both of them have had their PCR come back negative?

 

Seems a strange coincidence.

[st albans fox]

43 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Anyone heard if any strange goings on with the PCR test at the moment?

 

I know to different people (they don't know each other) who have this week had several positive lateral flow tests but both of them have had their PCR come back negative?

 

Seems a strange coincidence.

It’s not like we haven’t had this kind of thing before … However, just watch how long it takes the authorities to work out that one of their labs has a problem ……. But apparently we learn the lessons …….every time ……..

[Rain King]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

It’s not like we haven’t had this kind of thing before … However, just watch how long it takes the authorities to work out that one of their labs has a problem ……. But apparently we learn the lessons …….every time ……..

Yeah it's just very strange. Both had PCR tests on the same day.

[st albans fox]

deleted - it wasn’t omicron! 

Edited 9 December 2021 by st albans fox

[Babylon]

10 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

Does it all make sense? 

Many of my vacvinated friends have had delta.  Yet the gov is panicking coz omicron evades the vaccines.... but we already have delta?  So why the panicking?

Further, it looks like there is a reasonable chance that omicron is less severe than delta...  at the moment ,  omicron is just 1% of the uk covid infections... but givens its transmission advantages that may become 99%.  Yet chris whitty says hospitalizations (currently 350 per day) could rise to 1000 per day. But if omicron is less srver then we would expect hospitalizations to fall.   

 

This strange analysis is bring used to justify the plan b restrictions.

 

At a minimum they risk a cry wolf situation should we encounter a subsequent varient that is both more transmittable and more severe.

 

Finally... I am wondering why double vaccinated people who may well be carrying delta or omicron  are allowed into venues without testing?

It seems none of these decisions is consistent with the others.

What am I missing.

The part where hospitalisations in South Africa are skyrocketing. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Did Javid really say that Omicron cases could reach 1 million a day

 

"They're not scared enough, they're not listening! We need a predicted case number high enough to bring the fear back!" 

 

"What's the highest number we can think of?!"

 

"A MILLION!"

 

"Brilliant! Print it go go go!" 

[KrefelderFox666]

11 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Chaos in my gaff tonight. Our son has been ill with what we thought was chicken pox since Friday. Half his class have supposedly had it over the last 3-4 weeks. Covered in spots but not itching as much as I'd expect and he's a huge picker at the best of times so it was a little strange.

 

Anyway, my wife's mum and dad are retired pharmacists and they said it could instead be covid. All did tests yesterday and negative. Wife's taste and smell vanished today so she did another test tonight as is positive. Me and my son are negative still but maybe he's already had it if it was covid rather than chicken pox and now won't show up as positive anyway.

 

Our 14 month old told me to fcuk off when I got the swab out to test her.

Lots going round. Our youngest who is 2 had some rashes appear over here in various places (particularly legs and mouth). We thought it might be foot and mouth but a dermatologist family friend seemed to think it was a different virus that creates rashes. Can't remember the name.

 

And re your last point, it's a nightmare. Small children should not be forced to test to go back to nursery/school. Our 4 year old can just about manage, no real issues. And to be fair the 2 year old was fine the first few times. This time round it was traumatic getting her tested and the worst thing was that the first test came back void!

[The Horse's Mouth]

10 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

They always say this bollocks yet it’ll pass any vote pretty easily. 
 

*I don’t even know if it has to be voted theough btw, I couldn’t care less*

Its mainly because the opposition always agrees with the government. 

[KrefelderFox666]

11 hours ago, GingerrrFox said:

There is no logical explanation why vaccinated people can go anywhere without providing a negative test because they can still carry the virus. That is why “COVID passports” make no sense. I’d be far more comfortable knowing everyone in the King Power stadium had a negative test  as I’ve seen reports that Omicron has been spread in the community by vaccinated people. 

Even better, everyone is vaccinated and tested. The only reason these "COVID passports" are a thing is because even though vaccinated can still transmit the virus, they are less likely than unvaccinated to do so. On top of that, they simply want to push more unvaccinated to step up and get a jab, so it's politics. Imagine the uproar if vaccinated people were treated the same as unvaccinated. Even less people would bother to get vaccinated or get a booster. They would think what is the point if the rules are no different.

 

So in summary, the government want to ensure vaccinations are pushed out as much as possible. That is the "logical" explanation.

 

As you say, if they wanted to go to the next level, then have everyone tested. To be fair, this testing is nonsense anyway. Results can be faked. It comes down to integrity of each person.

[Farrington fox]

2 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Its mainly because the opposition always agrees with the government. 

Even our MP, A Kearns has come out publicly against these new restrictions. Which is a first. I nearly choked on my cornflakes. That said, I'll wait til next week and see which way she votes.

[Ric Flair]

26 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did Javid really say that Omicron cases could reach 1 million a day

 

"They're not scared enough, they're not listening! We need a predicted case number high enough to bring the fear back!" 

 

"What's the highest number we can think of?!"

 

"A MILLION!"

 

"Brilliant! Print it go go go!" 

Good, that means it'll all be over in just over 2 months. PLAY ON 😎

[st albans fox]

31 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did Javid really say that Omicron cases could reach 1 million a day

 

"They're not scared enough, they're not listening! We need a predicted case number high enough to bring the fear back!" 

 

"What's the highest number we can think of?!"

 

"A MILLION!"

 

"Brilliant! Print it go go go!" 

IF it’s doubling every three days then if we do nothing we will reach a million cases per day by the 8th jan

but we are giving millions of boosters in that timeframe and we are being a bit more precautionary so it won’t get to that figure 

if 10% of cases escape vaccine protection against severe illness then do the maths on likely hospitalisations based on even 200k per day …..

 

got to hope that it’s virulence is indeed reduced significantly…..

 

[Alf Bentley]

11 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

Does it all make sense? 

Many of my vacvinated friends have had delta.  Yet the gov is panicking coz omicron evades the vaccines.... but we already have delta?  So why the panicking?

Further, it looks like there is a reasonable chance that omicron is less severe than delta...  at the moment ,  omicron is just 1% of the uk covid infections... but givens its transmission advantages that may become 99%.  Yet chris whitty says hospitalizations (currently 350 per day) could rise to 1000 per day. But if omicron is less srver then we would expect hospitalizations to fall.   

 

This strange analysis is bring used to justify the plan b restrictions.

 

Firstly, the precautionary principle: if you don't know whether something may be very dangerous or not (we only have limited info so far), but have reason to think it might be, then you act with caution. Even if you thought there was only a 10% chance that there was a hungry tiger outside your door, you wouldn't open it.

 

Secondly, evidence (albeit limited so far): The only place where Omicron is known to already be widespread is S. Africa.....where hospitalisations have been rising sharply since its identification. That is not necessarily inconsistent with Omicron being less severe. It may simply be that a lot more people are catching it because (a) we know it is more transmissible; (b) it may partly evade vaccines, even if vaccines still provide pretty good protection against ending up in ICU or dead.

 

Thirdly, basic statistical analysis: if many times more people catch even a somewhat less severe illness, then a lot more people may end up in hospital, in ICU or dead.

A purely hypothetical example:

- If 1m people catch Delta, 2% end up in ICU and 1% die, that's 20,000 in ICU and 10,000 dead

- If 5m people catch Omicron, only 1% end up in ICU and only 0.5% die, that's 50,000 in ICU and 25,000 dead

 

Fourthly, if you do decide to chance it and hospitalisations increase markedly, there is also a risk of surplus deaths due to the NHS struggling to provide adequate care for non-Covid illnesses/accidents.....that could be you in a car crash, a close member of your family with a heart attack or cancer (or Covid) etc. If hospitals do start struggling to cope with excess numbers, it also makes a full lockdown all the more likely within a few weeks.

 

11 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

 

At a minimum they risk a cry wolf situation should we encounter a subsequent varient that is both more transmittable and more severe.

 

In the "cry wolf" fable, there was no wolf - until eventually there was. In this scenario, there may be a wolf (the S. Africa data suggest that there is, though that's inconclusive). Even if it turns out that there is no wolf, it is better to be cautious until we are reasonable sure that there is no wolf (definitely not the case currently).

 

11 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

Finally... I am wondering why double vaccinated people who may well be carrying delta or omicron  are allowed into venues without testing?

It seems none of these decisions is consistent with the others.

What am I missing.

 

Fair point here - and most experts seem to believe that Covid passports are of limited value.

 

I suppose they have some value, in that fully-vaccinated people are less likely to be carrying Covid....but there's certainly no guarantee of that. Mind you, lateral flow tests are not a reliable guarantee either.

 

I assume this policy is mainly adopted not as a health precaution but (a) for economic reasons; (b) to protect Johnson's desire to be popular.

The Govt doesn't want either to put businesses and venues out of business by closing them or to pay the furlough-type subsidies that would be expected if they provided funds to stay afloat during temporary closure.

But the fact Johnson is encouraging people to work from home but not discouraging parties and gatherings suggest to me that his ego and desire to protect his personal popularity is also part of it.

 

Edited 9 December 2021 by Alf Bentley

[SpacedX]

10 hours ago, Harrydc said:

If 'omicron' evades the vaccines then what's the point of vaccine passports? 

 

We don't know enough about the new variant yet. The concern surrounds some of the observed mutations that may have vaccine evasion. It may not be significant. We simply do not know the extent of this yet. If this is the case, mRNA vaccines can be tweaked very rapidly.

 

10 hours ago, Harrydc said:

If vaccines work then what's the point of vaccine passports? 

The NHS COVID Pass allows individuals to declare their coronavirus vaccination records or test COVID-19 status in terms of gaining access to venues or events or international travel. They are also designed to allow people to go about their lives and conduct business as an alternative to lockdown measures, but they don't rule out the possibility of further restrictions Given the variants and the heterogeneity of immune response, vaccine passports can’t give a perfect assessment of risk at an individual level however.

 

Communicating vaccination or test status tells us something about risk, but it doesn’t prove that people are free or safe from the virus. Remember last Augusts' outdoor Boardmasters Festival in Cornwall? - it employed vaccine passports in conjunction with additional testing but still became a superspreader event, incubating almost 5000 cases.

 

I think what you mean here was, "if vaccines don't prevent the possibility of transmission, then what's the point of passports?" - which in many scenarios, is a very valid point.

 

10 hours ago, Harrydc said:

Absolute nonsense and another step towards the Chinese style social credit system. 

It’s essential that covid passes/passports are designed and implemented in such a way as to protect personal health data and maximise privacy. Existing technology allows users to prove their health status without disclosing any further details (such as the date or type of vaccination) to the verifying party. In the longer term, a much wider and more detailed debate is needed about how democratic societies can make the best use of health data to benefit the common good while protecting individuals’ privacy. 

 

China is a single party unitary communist state. China is not a democracy. It is an authoritarian regime which has been characterised (not classified) as totalitarian surveillance state, and a dictatorship. Consequently, the Social Credit system is one aspect of this - and an inevitable consequence with the belief that data technology elevates order and control over privacy. In the West, philosophers, legal experts, economists and political scientists are endeavouring to formulate data protection frameworks that place limits on surveillance by both private business and the government. This is a multi-disciplinary and cognate endeavour and such  dialogue informs future governance. In China, this is not open to debate. 

 

Thought experiment. John Crace is a political satirist, journalist and critic who is firm in the belief that his role is in the public interest and to hold those in power accountable. Could you find me his Chinese counterpart? Also speculate what would happen if he was a Chinese citizen and expressed the following sentiment about Xi Jinping?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/08/its-my-non-party-and-ill-lie-if-i-want-to-boris-johnson-is-bang-to-rights
 

Surveillance and data harvest is an inevitable fact of life - even in a Western democracy. If you are that concerned about SCS I suggest that you immediately cease all activities on social media, sever your internet connection and bin your smart phone because currently private sector business is equally as intrusive and potentially Orwellian. 

 

Whether terrorism, financial crisis, or a pandemic, future global crises will spread through the movement of goods, people and information. The ability and the will of western democracies to balance data technology and privacy with other critical objectives such as national security will in part determine what shapes the future. In this regard, the SCS is an example of what becomes possible when the decision skews toward an unquestioning prioritisation of order and development. Whatever course of action the western world takes, it will become symbolic of how a liberal, innovation-driven society approaches the balancing act. Given the technical acceleration of the data industry, simply delaying this amounts to supporting more boundary-pushing activities and morally questionable experiments - such as those we have witnessed on the social media platforms that you swear by and inhabit. Odd that you don't seem to be concerned about this. 

[dsr-burnley]

44 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did Javid really say that Omicron cases could reach 1 million a day

 

"They're not scared enough, they're not listening! We need a predicted case number high enough to bring the fear back!" 

 

"What's the highest number we can think of?!"

 

"A MILLION!"

 

"Brilliant! Print it go go go!" 

Look on the bright side - if we have a million cases per day for 57 days, then we are guaranteed zero cases for the next 23 days and the UK pandemic will be over.  You can only get covid -officially at least - once every 90 days.  

[Farrington fox]

I'm with Steve.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1465709396692910088?s=20

[Ric Flair]

Why is the narrative around these covid passports that we don't know enough about this new strain and therefore there possibly is still a point to them, but then also the message about the drive to people getting their boosters is that the 3rd jab of the vaccine neutralises this new strain? 

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Why is the narrative around these covid passports that we don't know enough about this new strain and therefore there possibly is still a point to them, but then also the message about the drive to people getting their boosters is that the 3rd jab of the vaccine neutralises this new strain? 

Initial lab tests show that the third jab recovers your immunity to a level where you have a decent chance of fighting this strain off.

 

of course the great unknown remains virulence 

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did Javid really say that Omicron cases could reach 1 million a day

 

"They're not scared enough, they're not listening! We need a predicted case number high enough to bring the fear back!" 

 

"What's the highest number we can think of?!"

 

"A MILLION!"

 

"Brilliant! Print it go go go!" 

I know even being sensible that’s some reach. The entire population of the country would be infected within two months 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

IF it’s doubling every three days then if we do nothing we will reach a million cases per day by the 8th jan

but we are giving millions of boosters in that timeframe and we are being a bit more precautionary so it won’t get to that figure 

if 10% of cases escape vaccine protection against severe illness then do the maths on likely hospitalisations based on even 200k per day …..

 

got to hope that it’s virulence is indeed reduced significantly…..

 

Like it's been mentioned elsewhere if we follow that trajectory (which we won't), it'll be all over by about February as everyone will have been infected.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

4 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

I know even being sensible that’s some reach. The entire population of the country would be infected within two months 

The entire country getting a very mild virus over the winter and then easing into the spring. Sounds like what we had prior to 2020 every year. 

[dsr-burnley]

13 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

I know even being sensible that’s some reach. The entire population of the country would be infected within two months 

Quicker even than that.  The entire country would catch the virus on 26th January.  (Even if they had already caught it on the 25th.)  Then we would all catch it twice on 29th January, 4 times on 1st February, and so on - by about the 8th or 9th February, we'd have to catch it on the hour, every hour to keep the graph looking right.