Coronavirus Thread

[Super_horns]

Basically everyone getting their booster will make the situation much better potentially?

 

From BBC site:

 

”It comes after early analysis by the UK Health Security Agency showed a third vaccine dose prevents about 75% of people from getting any Covid symptoms”

Edited 11 December 2021 by Super_horns

[Phil Bowman]

8 hours ago, Harrydc said:

This will only end when we say it ends. We can't lock down every bloody winter for the rest of our lives. Jesus christ this is driving me insane.

I have every sympathy for everyone suffering mental health issues as a result of the pandemic. You are not alone. There are plenty of places to find help and support.

In the meantime, maybe it will help to remember that we are not in lockdown yet, and if we end up being, it will only be the second winter with a lockdown, so there’s certainly no need to panic that this will be for the rest of your life.

And remember too that lockdowns, difficult as they are for many of us, are aimed at helping to bring all this to an end.

[String fellow]

35 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It’s going to be simple maths 

if omicron is R=2.5 or even 3 then as we are currently going there will surely be approaching min 500k infections per day after new year. the vast majority of these will be asymptomatic or mild experiences. But we are told the best case scenario post booster is that 25% of cases will be ill. That’s at least 125k per day of notable infections. If only 1% of those result in a hospitalisation (let’s assume omicron isn’t virulent) then that’s 1250 per day hospital admissions. 

 

this is obviously going to be a massive problem for a few weeks and then it should drop away more quickly than previous waves. 
 

I can see a two week circuit break past new year to try and smooth out the hospitalisation peak.  Realistically it should be pre Xmas/new year but I don’t think the politicians will do that.  Maybe new year could be sacrificed by them. of course we are way more bubbled over the holidays which will help a bit and schools are shut.  Hence my view that jan holds the ‘circuit break’ for two or three weeks. 
 

of course, if more were double jabbed then those hospitalisations would be reduced ……. But the numbers are simply enormous and we don’t have the infrastructure to cope. We’d probably pretty much sink if everyone was jabbed. The five to ten million who are going to be most exposed here will just add to the sh1t - the country will ‘stink’ anyway. 
 

hopefully I’m wrong but the maths looks broadly straightforward ……..

 

 

The calculation for Covid-19 spread is based on a 5-day time interval. So if R = 3, then during a 30-day month, the exponential growth would increase by a factor of 3 every 5 days. That means that the number of new infections by the end of the month, starting from a single person, would be 1 + 3 + 9 + 27 + 81 + 243 + 729 = 1093. However, this total is artificially high, because most of the infected people from the earlier part of the month would have recovered by the end of it. Given this information, I'm rather unclear as to how the figure of 500k+ new infections per day by the start of next year is arrived at.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

57 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It’s going to be simple maths 

if omicron is R=2.5 or even 3 then as we are currently going there will surely be approaching min 500k infections per day after new year. the vast majority of these will be asymptomatic or mild experiences. But we are told the best case scenario post booster is that 25% of cases will be ill. That’s at least 125k per day of notable infections. If only 1% of those result in a hospitalisation (let’s assume omicron isn’t virulent) then that’s 1250 per day hospital admissions. 

 

this is obviously going to be a massive problem for a few weeks and then it should drop away more quickly than previous waves. 
 

I can see a two week circuit break past new year to try and smooth out the hospitalisation peak.  Realistically it should be pre Xmas/new year but I don’t think the politicians will do that.  Maybe new year could be sacrificed by them. of course we are way more bubbled over the holidays which will help a bit and schools are shut.  Hence my view that jan holds the ‘circuit break’ for two or three weeks. 
 

of course, if more were double jabbed then those hospitalisations would be reduced ……. But the numbers are simply enormous and we don’t have the infrastructure to cope. We’d probably pretty much sink if everyone was jabbed. The five to ten million who are going to be most exposed here will just add to the sh1t - the country will ‘stink’ anyway. 
 

hopefully I’m wrong but the maths looks broadly straightforward ……..

 

 

Wow 500k per day, a million every 2 days, 3.5 million a week, that’s an enormous number, would this lead to herd immunity? 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

Have you been vaccinated to do your bit to help now then? 

Here lies a potential problem, if restrictions are ramped up further many vaccinated people will question why even bother getting vaccinated again if it doesn’t lead to the freedoms and normality we were promised.

[Legend_in_blue]

11 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Wow 500k per day, a million every 2 days, 3.5 million a week, that’s an enormous number, would this lead to herd immunity? 

It'll lead to a big end of year bonus for Ferguson if he gets it right!

 

[FoxesDeb]

Just now, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Here lies a potential problem, if restrictions are ramped up further many vaccinated people will question why even bother getting vaccinated again if it doesn’t lead to the freedoms and normality we were promised.

I agree, I think we're seeing that on this thread already. Quite a few people who have had both vaccinations but not getting a booster. 

 

It begs the question, should restrictions only apply to those unvaccinated through choice? 

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

It’s going to be simple maths 

if omicron is R=2.5 or even 3 then as we are currently going there will surely be approaching min 500k infections per day after new year. the vast majority of these will be asymptomatic or mild experiences. But we are told the best case scenario post booster is that 25% of cases will be ill. That’s at least 125k per day of notable infections. If only 1% of those result in a hospitalisation (let’s assume omicron isn’t virulent) then that’s 1250 per day hospital admissions. 

 

this is obviously going to be a massive problem for a few weeks and then it should drop away more quickly than previous waves. 
 

I can see a two week circuit break past new year to try and smooth out the hospitalisation peak.  Realistically it should be pre Xmas/new year but I don’t think the politicians will do that.  Maybe new year could be sacrificed by them. of course we are way more bubbled over the holidays which will help a bit and schools are shut.  Hence my view that jan holds the ‘circuit break’ for two or three weeks. 
 

of course, if more were double jabbed then those hospitalisations would be reduced ……. But the numbers are simply enormous and we don’t have the infrastructure to cope. We’d probably pretty much sink if everyone was jabbed. The five to ten million who are going to be most exposed here will just add to the sh1t - the country will ‘stink’ anyway. 
 

hopefully I’m wrong but the maths looks broadly straightforward ……..

 

 

Not sure this is right, or perhaps I’ve misunderstood something. In my understanding vaccines work to reduce the percentage of people that would have developed symptomatic infection if they hadn’t been vaccinated. For example, if in the absence of vaccine, 20% of people who contract the virus would have a significant reaction, then for vaccinated people the number would be reduced by a factor of 4 (25%), so only 5% would do so. Probably haven’t explained it very well.

Edited 11 December 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[Ric Flair]

14 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Wow 500k per day, a million every 2 days, 3.5 million a week, that’s an enormous number, would this lead to herd immunity? 

Yes, within 2 months it's either all over or we're in absolute ruins

[Trumpet]

.

Edited 11 December 2021 by Trumpet

[Lionator]

37 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Yes, within 2 months it's either all over or we're in absolute ruins

Well South Africa have likely had these numbers over the past few weeks and their society is running just fine. No lockdowns, no overwhelmed hospitals etc. 

[Stivo]

50 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Not sure this is right, or perhaps I’ve misunderstood something. In my understanding vaccines work to reduce the percentage of people that would have developed symptomatic infection if they hadn’t been vaccinated. For example, if in the absence of vaccine, 20% of people who contract the virus would have a significant reaction, then for vaccinated people the number would be reduced by a factor of 4 (25%), so only 5% would do so. Probably haven’t explained it very well.

This omicron 4th wave analysis comes from a brexit supporting economist, GB news contributor, and author of various telegraph articles such as “lockdown fanatics should be ashamed of themselves” and the “English pandemic is over ”.

 

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1469471597052452874

 

[String fellow]

1 hour ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Wow 500k per day, a million every 2 days, 3.5 million a week, that’s an enormous number, would this lead to herd immunity? 

As I pointed out earlier, the R number is based over a 5-day period. So it's incorrect to apply the factor on a daily basis.

[Farrington fox]

28 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Well South Africa have likely had these numbers over the past few weeks and their society is running just fine. No lockdowns, no overwhelmed hospitals etc. 

We have to gold plate everything here though. Plus the media just love to create hysteria. 

[String fellow]

Here's an illustration of how Covid-19 is spread using different R values. It clearly shows that the calculation is made over a 5-day period. For example, the top figure of 406 is simply the sum of the powers of 2.5 sampled every 5 days. Rounding off each power of 2.5, after 30 days one gets 1 + 2 + 6 + 16 + 39 + 98 + 244 = 406.

[SpacedX]

40 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

Plus the media just love to create hysteria. 

Yes they do - we know, it's mentioned upon practically every page of this thread. It sells. So does social media for exactly the same reason.

 

So do half a dozen that regularly post on this thread and seem to be oddly oblivious to the latter. 

[HighPeakFox]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Yes they do - we know, it's mentioned upon practically every page of this thread. It sells. So does social media for exactly the same reason.

 

So do half a dozen that regularly post on this thread and seem to be oddly oblivious to the latter. 

That's because they definitely think for themselves and are 100% objective.

[kyleolly]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/unvaccinated-woman-30-loses-arms-25671334?utm_source=mirror_newsletter&utm_campaign=12at12_newsletter2&utm_medium=emailC

So if she had been vaccinated she wouldn't be legless 

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

Well South Africa have likely had these numbers over the past few weeks and their society is running just fine. No lockdowns, no overwhelmed hospitals etc. 

I was referring to what would happen if we were at 500k - £1m cases a day, it would be all over very quickly given there's only 65m of us.

[dsr-burnley]

On 10/12/2021 at 12:05, leicsmac said:

Stand in the ashes of millions of dead people and ask them if money, or economics, matters.

 

Their silence is your answer.

And if you ask people who have received very expensive cures for cancer if they think that money or the economy matters, they will probably be quite noisy.

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

And if you ask people who have received very expensive cures for cancer if they think that money or the economy matters, they will probably be quite noisy.

True enough, given it's tricky to poll the dead on their opinion.

 

But all things considered, based on personal worldview and testimony of those who have survived near death experiences of their own creation, being dead is still the worst case scenario for a human being, even over a lifetime of debt (additionally, the issue of such cures being ridiculously expensive in the first place being a problem of logistics and economics and is therefore possible to solve, unlike death).

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, st albans fox said:

It’s going to be simple maths 

if omicron is R=2.5 or even 3 then as we are currently going there will surely be approaching min 500k infections per day after new year. the vast majority of these will be asymptomatic or mild experiences. But we are told the best case scenario post booster is that 25% of cases will be ill. That’s at least 125k per day of notable infections. If only 1% of those result in a hospitalisation (let’s assume omicron isn’t virulent) then that’s 1250 per day hospital admissions. 

 

this is obviously going to be a massive problem for a few weeks and then it should drop away more quickly than previous waves. 
 

I can see a two week circuit break past new year to try and smooth out the hospitalisation peak.  Realistically it should be pre Xmas/new year but I don’t think the politicians will do that.  Maybe new year could be sacrificed by them. of course we are way more bubbled over the holidays which will help a bit and schools are shut.  Hence my view that jan holds the ‘circuit break’ for two or three weeks. 
 

of course, if more were double jabbed then those hospitalisations would be reduced ……. But the numbers are simply enormous and we don’t have the infrastructure to cope. We’d probably pretty much sink if everyone was jabbed. The five to ten million who are going to be most exposed here will just add to the sh1t - the country will ‘stink’ anyway. 
 

hopefully I’m wrong but the maths looks broadly straightforward ……..

 

 

If r=2.5 and there are 500,000 cases on 1st January, then by the end of the month we will all be catching it 3 times a day. Which shows the pointlessness of just multiplying the figures without considering other factors. 

[dsr-burnley]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

True enough, given it's tricky to poll the dead on their opinion.

 

But all things considered, based on personal worldview and testimony of those who have survived near death experiences of their own creation, being dead is still the worst case scenario for a human being, even over a lifetime of debt (additionally, the issue of such cures being ridiculously expensive in the first place being a problem of logistics and economics and is therefore possible to solve, unlike death).

The point is that if you say screw that the economy and money don't matter, then you can't fund the NHS and lots more people die. If you think this crisis could and should have been run for 2 years on the basis that it doesn't matter what happens to the economy, then IMO you couldn't be more wrong. 

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

The point is that if you say screw that the economy and money don't matter, then you can't fund the NHS and lots more people die. If you think this crisis could and should have been run for 2 years on the basis that it doesn't matter what happens to the economy, then IMO you couldn't be more wrong. 

I agree with you.

 

However, my original response was to a poster for whom the virus and its effects if it were to run amok (including crashing the economy) seem to be merely an afterthought to the human response to it.

[Guest Harrydc]

7 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

Have you been vaccinated to do your bit to help now then? 

Why? The first 2 doses apparently does nothing to help with the 'omicron' varient, and the booster only has a 75% success rate? What's the point.