Coronavirus Thread

[Górnik Leicester]

29 minutes ago, moore_94 said:

So no LFT tests can be ordered and now also no PCR tests at sites... absolute shambles

 

 

Booked and took one this morning, no problems. Was there at 9am, when it first opened, and was quite busy when I left. Both my wife and son are positive, but I've so far continued to test negative.

 

Today is also the last day that you can test positive, and still be released from isolation on Christmas Day. This may factor in.

[yorkie1999]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

.... and?

 

If people are looking for certainty regarding a novel virus, perhaps they should look at organised religion instead. More wrong, but definitely more certain about it.

 

Science is all about possibilities and projections, which are corrected and clarified s new data is accumulated.  If people don't trust that process, then fair enough, but firstly I'd like to hear of a better process for seeing what's true and what isn't about the current pandemic and secondly its darkly hilarious to hear people criticising the scientific method and providing no useful alternative on a platform created solely by it. To say nothing of reliance on it in practically every other area of life.

 

To say nothing of what Lukashenko is doing in Belarus.

 

That's "Doctor Crazy People" to you, ser.

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

38 minutes ago, martyn said:

Firstly, the data from South Africa re virulence seems relatively promising. Fewer hospital admissions, fewer patients in hospital requiring Oxygen and ICU, and average stay in hospital considerably down compared to other variants. The one slightly concerning thing looks to be the relative increase in severity for under 18's, and particularly in much younger kids.

 

However, it's dangerous to push the narrative that we're just dealing with a cold. If transmissibility is factors higher than the relative reduction in severity, then the danger is the health service won't cope, just due to sheer volumes of people infected.

 

So it's reassuring on an individual risk basis that seemingly Omicron might be the "best" variant to catch, but not so much if you're one of the cohort who ends up needs treatment where numbers are running rampant. 

Unsure of the numbers and I don't have the time to look them up but the lower severity, combined with vaccines would surely mean the numbers of cases needed to actually "overwhelm" the health service would be astronomical and would mean the virus would have infected everyone in about a week. 

 

Then we'd be out of it anyway, underlying my original point that this variant is the way out of here 

[Fox92]

47 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Nah, that one wasn't big enough to do more than cause a very bad day for a population centre, more's the pity.

 

You know something though, witnessing all that has made me wonder that *if* we do end up with one on the way and a global effort is needed to stop it, we'll fail because a third of people won't believe it exists and another third will think the measures needed to stop it impinges upon their freedoms unnecessarily.

Come on, doesn't matter what the issue is, we'll always have conspiracies.

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

Come on, doesn't matter what the issue is, we'll always have conspiracies.

Absolutely we will.

 

However going by the way this has all played out, I have much less confidence that a more dangerous global crisis could be averted, precisely because of them and the distance they reach in this day and age.

[CosbehFox]

Red list being scrapped - what an absolute racket that was. A friend’s family member decided not to cancel this Xmas plans this year; visiting his family coming from South Africa. Shelled out on quarantine hotel. Comes out Sunday, you can imagine his anger. 

Study suggests two jabs of Pfizer 70% effective against hospitalisation with Omicron - that’s down from 93%

 

[reynard]

27 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Unsure of the numbers and I don't have the time to look them up but the lower severity, combined with vaccines would surely mean the numbers of cases needed to actually "overwhelm" the health service would be astronomical and would mean the virus would have infected everyone in about a week. 

 

Then we'd be out of it anyway, underlying my original point that this variant is the way out of here 

Seriously looks like we could be facing 1 million infections per week by the end of the year. Just 1% of that in hospital is 10000 hospital admissions. Add to that the possibility of key workers getting sick but not needing hospital treatment and we could be in a very bad place in a few weeks.

Edited 14 December 2021 by reynard

[danny.]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

Seriously looks like we could be facing 1 million infections per week by the end of the year. Just 1% of that in hospital is 10000 hospital admissions. Add to that the possibility of key workers getting sick but not needing hospital treatment and we could be in a very bad place in a few weeks.

What is the percentage in South Africa of hospitalisations?

[Steven]

12 hours ago, Vlad the Fox said:

Was told an heartbreaking story today from a nurse. He had sat with an unvaccinated patient who was dying from Covid, this patient had also encouraged his parents not to get vaccinated who then caught Covid and died. He said that the patient just kept saying “I’ve killed my parents, I’ve killed my parents”

Oh dear, how sad, what a shame. I feel bad for the parents but not for the patient.

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, moore_94 said:

So no LFT tests can be ordered and now also no PCR tests at sites... absolute shambles

 

 

This will have to be factored into Ferguson's modelling.  Case numbers will drop dramatically should this continue to be the case 

[reynard]

1 minute ago, danny. said:

What is the percentage in South Africa of hospitalisations?

I don't know but a good question. The news from there does look encouraging but they do have a much younger age demographic so we do need to be cautious at this stage.

do you know the answer?

[SpacedX]

Just now, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Unsure of the numbers and I don't have the time to look them up but the lower severity, combined with vaccines would surely mean the numbers of cases needed to actually "overwhelm" the health service would be astronomical and would mean the virus would have infected everyone in about a week. 

 

Then we'd be out of it anyway, underlying my original point that this variant is the way out of here 

As has been pointed out, we simply don't know. The good news is that where in the case of Delta, 2 out of 3 admissions to hospital were severe, whereas, in South Africa, the figure is more like 1 in 4.Long-term, it could be a way out when it almost inevitably takes hold globally, but the possibility of another more virulent and dangerous variant arriving on theses shores in the future still remains. I endlessly had the same conversation on this thread in the summer that don't understand that a virus evolves and that the situation is constantly in flux. That while many in the world remain unvaccinated it will continue to mutate and thus more variants will emerge. Further, the data from South Africa is far from "conclusive". We need to be careful drawing comparisons. The population is far younger, on average by 13years. It is currently summer is South Africa, whilst this time of year clinical burden reaches its peak in our mid-winter. Also, approximately 80% of the population in South Africa have already been infected by Delta or another variant.  If you are getting Omicron on the back of having previously been infected, you are afforded with a level of natural immunity. So, one of the reasons that they may be reporting milder symptoms is because the immune response already generated is helping to clear the virus quicker than it normally would in a 'naïve' person. Also, figures in South Africa have indicated that about 31 per cent of hospital patients with Omicron in Tshwane, a region north of Johannesburg which is the centre of the country’s outbreak, have been classed as “severe”, meaning that they have required oxygen or been placed in intensive care. Although this is half the number of Delta, this still represents a huge figure proportionally. Given the oncoming wave expected in the UK. 

 

What changing "narrative"? - the fact that our healthcare services are under intense pressure is still the case and this is still the concern. According to preliminary estimates, every person with Omicron is infecting 3–3.5 others, which is roughly on par with how fast the coronavirus spread when it first went global in early 2020. In other words, Omicron is spreading in highly immune populations as quickly as the original virus did in populations with no immunity at all. If this holds and is left uncontrolled, a huge Omicron wave lies ahead, bigger than we would have expected with Delta. Due to the higher rate of infection this will still result in hospital referrals where they are already at 94 - 96 % capacity, irrespective of whether the strain is mild or not. A tiny percent of a huge number is still a big number. A largely mild but uncontrolled Omicron wave could cause a lot of pain, hospitalisations, and death across a country. This variant has over thirty new spike proteins, double the mutations of Delta, is able to evade the protection of the currently vaccinated and has triple the infection rate. We still don't know what the the combined effect of this means

 

Why the **** are people still utterly incapable of comprehending this? 

 

 

[Munshi]

Latest Joe Rogan podcast is interesting. Thoughts?

 

[filbertway]

 

Govt demands more testing and then doesn't have the facilities available. That omnishambles clip should just be pinned to the top of this thread and probably on loop in the house of commons

Edited 14 December 2021 by filbertway

[Bert]

Just had my booster. What I find strange is that there’s no AZ booster. 

[SexyGammonFox]

16 minutes ago, Bert said:

Just had my booster. What I find strange is that there’s no AZ booster. 

2 x AZ + 1 Pfizer combination gives best results apparently. 

[Md9]

Just had a pcr done as my lad is positive and booked in for booster on Sunday luckily no work next week so if I feel a bit rubbish from it don’t have to go in. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

2 hours ago, Line-X said:

As has been pointed out, we simply don't know. The good news is that where in the case of Delta, 2 out of 3 admissions to hospital were severe, whereas, in South Africa, the figure is more like 1 in 4.Long-term, it could be a way out when it almost inevitably takes hold globally, but the possibility of another more virulent and dangerous variant arriving on theses shores in the future still remains. I endlessly had the same conversation on this thread in the summer that don't understand that a virus evolves and that the situation is constantly in flux. That while many in the world remain unvaccinated it will continue to mutate and thus more variants will emerge. Further, the data from South Africa is far from "conclusive". We need to be careful drawing comparisons. The population is far younger, on average by 13years. It is currently summer is South Africa, whilst this time of year clinical burden reaches its peak in our mid-winter. Also, approximately 80% of the population in South Africa have already been infected by Delta or another variant.  If you are getting Omicron on the back of having previously been infected, you are afforded with a level of natural immunity. So, one of the reasons that they may be reporting milder symptoms is because the immune response already generated is helping to clear the virus quicker than it normally would in a 'naïve' person. Also, figures in South Africa have indicated that about 31 per cent of hospital patients with Omicron in Tshwane, a region north of Johannesburg which is the centre of the country’s outbreak, have been classed as “severe”, meaning that they have required oxygen or been placed in intensive care. Although this is half the number of Delta, this still represents a huge figure proportionally. Given the oncoming wave expected in the UK. 

 

What changing "narrative"? - the fact that our healthcare services are under intense pressure is still the case and this is still the concern. According to preliminary estimates, every person with Omicron is infecting 3–3.5 others, which is roughly on par with how fast the coronavirus spread when it first went global in early 2020. In other words, Omicron is spreading in highly immune populations as quickly as the original virus did in populations with no immunity at all. If this holds and is left uncontrolled, a huge Omicron wave lies ahead, bigger than we would have expected with Delta. Due to the higher rate of infection this will still result in hospital referrals where they are already at 94 - 96 % capacity, irrespective of whether the strain is mild or not. A tiny percent of a huge number is still a big number. A largely mild but uncontrolled Omicron wave could cause a lot of pain, hospitalisations, and death across a country. This variant has over thirty new spike proteins, double the mutations of Delta, is able to evade the protection of the currently vaccinated and has triple the infection rate. We still don't know what the the combined effect of this means

 

Why the **** are people still utterly incapable of comprehending this? 

 

 

It's also plunged the South African fatality rate so much the graph looks like it's broken.

 

Your posts are great mate but surely it's exhausting being this negative 24/7?

[RoboFox]

Friends I was with on Saturday have just tested positive. Assuming they already had it when I saw them as one of them started showing symptoms on Sunday, so I could very well have come into contact with it. 

 

Fingers crossed Bill Gates and his nanomachines coursing through my veins can stave it off, but it's daily LFTs for me.

 

I was able to procure a pack earlier today from a local pharmacy without an issue. 

[KrefelderFox666]

29 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Friends I was with on Saturday have just tested positive. Assuming they already had it when I saw them as one of them started showing symptoms on Sunday, so I could very well have come into contact with it. 

 

Fingers crossed Bill Gates and his nanomachines coursing through my veins can stave it off, but it's daily LFTs for me.

 

I was able to procure a pack earlier today from a local pharmacy without an issue. 

When I went for my booster earlier they were handing them out there. I think it's just supply chain issues and people probably panic ordering online too!

[FoxesDeb]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Your posts are great mate but surely it's exhausting being this negative 24/7?

Where you see negativity I see honesty, patience, realism, science and unbiased information. It's the situation that's negative, not @Line-Xposts imo. 

[sm1]

3 hours ago, Munshi said:

Latest Joe Rogan podcast is interesting. Thoughts?

 

I think that's fairly obvious considering the demonisation of non vax treatments for Covid like Ivermectin and Monoclonal antibodies.

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

It's also plunged the South African fatality rate so much the graph looks like it's broken.

 

Your posts are great mate but surely it's exhausting being this negative 24/7?

Apologies and to clarify - my input shouldn't be construed as negative, that really isn't my intention. 

 

We shouldn't bank on this being mild or that it won't exact huge pressure on the NHS over the next few months. As a strain it is highly likely that is is milder and that it will establish itself around the world very rapidly. Which is good news in the long-term. 

 

On a further optimistic note, yes the virus will continue to mutate, and although the prospect of further variants are concerning, each time it does mutate it carries a very high risk of introducing error and destabilising itself.  

[Babylon]

23 minutes ago, sm1 said:

I think that's fairly obvious considering the demonisation of non vax treatments for Covid like Ivermectin and Monoclonal antibodies.

They aren’t demonised, they just aren’t proven to work.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

21 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Apologies and to clarify - my input shouldn't be construed as negative, that really isn't my intention. 

 

We shouldn't bank on this being mild or that it won't exact huge pressure on the NHS over the next few months. As a strain it is highly likely that is is milder and that it will establish itself around the world very rapidly. Which is good news in the long-term. 

 

On a further optimistic note, yes the virus will continue to mutate, and although the prospect of further variants are concerning, each time it does mutate it carries a very high risk of introducing error and destabilising itself.  

Fair enough. Do you think we'll see an impact from that pill on deaths any time soon? That was lauded as some kind of breakthrough but deaths are just as flat as they've been for months.