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Johnson’s plan B measures fall far short of what is needed to slow the spread of Covid

 
 

The NHS will soon be overwhelmed unless coherent and strict rules are applied to social distancing

  • Dr Chaand Nagpaul is chair of the British Medical Association council

In Sunday evening’s extraordinary televised address, when the prime minister warned that Britain was facing a “tidal wave” of Omicron cases, it was notable that the only focus was the mission to vaccinate the nation with boosters. There was no mention of the other vital public health measures needed to urgently reduce the levels of social mixing and prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Given the reduced effectiveness of two vaccinations against the new Omicron variant, there is absolutely no doubt that the accelerated booster campaign is crucial to control the spread and impact of the virus – but we cannot rely on this alone. The alarming pace with which it is spreading through the country, with a record of more than 78,000 new daily cases yesterday, shows the pressing need for additional effective infection control measures to be introduced immediately to protect the population.

Despite the assertion that all adults will be offered a booster by the end of December, millions of people will not be eligible for their booster by the end of the month – either because they aren’t vaccinated, have only had one jab, or received their second dose less than three months ago. This group of people needs protection against Omicron until they too can get their booster jab. Many will be younger and more likely to mix socially, more likely to become infected and more likely to spread Covid-19.

Projections have suggested that the Omicron variant risks hospitalisation rates that could overwhelm the NHS at a time when it is already in a desperately precarious state. We are facing a record backlog of waits for hospital treatments, escalating pressures on general practice, and are failing to meet emergency ambulance response targets. The sudden exponential rise in infections presents a major challenge. There is no slack in the system to accommodate any increase in Covid-19 hospital admissions, which will directly affect our ability to treat the nearly 6 million patients on waiting lists in England, with more than 300,000 having waited for longer than 12 months. Indeed, a recent report found 13,000 planned operations had been cancelled in a two-month period at 40 hospitals because of lack of capacity from increased hospital admissions.

Measures are urgently needed to slow the spread of the virus and prevent further additional strain being placed on the NHS, while we also deliver the enormous feat of the booster vaccination programme. This is not a choice between health and the economy. We have seen from previous variants that not introducing timely interventions is counterproductive for businesses and employers if it allows Covid-19 to spread unfettered through the population, resulting in staff being off work due to sickness or self-isolation. Let us not forget that, earlier this year, staff absences due to high levels of transmission impaired many businesses from functioning. High levels of infection are also likely to disproportionately affect some population groups and exacerbate inequalities.

The measures outlined in the government’s plan B rules announced last week not only fall short of what is needed but are also inconsistent, with glaring omissions. Vaccine passes will not do enough to stop the spread of Omicron, since they require only proof of double vaccination or a recent negative lateral flow test to gain entry to nightclubs and mass events such as football matches.

By the government’s own admission, two doses of the vaccine does not confer sufficient protection from the new variant. Furthermore, the government has drawn a false equivalence between a negative lateral flow test and proof of vaccination. This presents a clear public health risk, as vaccinated but infectious asymptomatic people will be able to mix at will with unvaccinated people with a negative lateral flow test. Testing should be the minimum requirement for entry to all hospitality venues and, as the BMA has already argued, the government should be acting to significantly reduce large social gatherings.

Requiring mask wearing in indoor settings but not in hospitality venues defies public health logic. Staff in takeaways are rightly required to wear masks, yet waiters in restaurants taking orders in the direct line of customers’ faces, at close distance, are not. Customers should also be required to wear face coverings unless eating or drinking.

The measures are not just confusing, but also undermine the public’s understanding of this virus and its high transmissibility. There is no requirement for social distancing in indoor public settings when it’s clear that this can reduce transmission. Rather than simply state that indoor settings should be adequately ventilated, there should be proper specifications, including the use of filtration devices and CO2 monitors, which we know can make a difference to risk of transmission in enclosed areas.

In healthcare settings, we need to see the reintroduction of stronger infection control measures, with clear advice around the use of PPE and segregated care pathways. Patients attend their GP practice or hospital to get better, not to be put at risk of getting ill from infection.

Likewise, we need further guidance for schools, which have had the highest rates of infection since September, and where children have been a source of household transmission, with many not having been vaccinated at all. This should include mask wearing in all places in secondary schools, reintroducing distancing, as well as ventilation – and if needed, government-supplied air filtration systems, given the proximity of pupils in classrooms. By doing nothing there is a far greater threat to children’s learning through absenteeism and high levels of staff and student sickness and self-isolation.

For businesses in the hospitality sector, who will suffer loss of income as a result of these measures, it is important that the government provides necessary financial support. As it stands, the country will incur the greater economic cost of the illness burden on the NHS and lost workforce capacity due to sickness.

For patients at higher risk of serious ill health from the virus, such as those who are clinically vulnerable, they should be recommended FFP2 masks, given that they protect the wearer through being able to filtrate airborne spread – another simple measure which could have a huge positive impact for individuals.

Implementing these additional protections will prevent many more people from becoming ill, hospitalised or dying, and will help keep the NHS afloat at this critical moment. Crucially, it will also buy us time to deliver this accelerated booster campaign and help get us on the front foot in the battle against Covid-19.

  • Dr Chaand Nagpaul is chair of the British Medical Association council

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27 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Hugely hugely presumptive statement (I can’t highlight the Damn thing!!!!) but I guess you know what quote I’m talking about. The west is severely weakened and China are on a tear, we must be using billions of their testing items everyday during this pandemic.
 

Before any high horsed crackpots on here completely misunderstand what I’m saying and start rambling on, I don’t believe it was deliberately released, but the benefits of deliberate release are clear 

...and when the virus mutates and turns on the Chinese/the West suffers economic collapse from fighting it that causes the Chinese one to collapse in turn/other possible scenario/all of the above? What benefits of release are there then?

 

I'm sorry, but the statement isn't presumptive, it's just logical. The Chinese leadership may be many things - power-interested is certainly one of them - but what they are not are crazy and/or stupid. And you would have to be either or both of those things to release what is tantamount to a biological weapon that could easily evolve beyond your control. Like I said above, there's a reason that biological weapons were the first WMD's to be internationally agreed to be prohibited.

 

 

25 minutes ago, danny. said:

How do we know they didn't? 

 

Anyway this is well into tin foil hat territory now, better log off before the shapeshifters catch me whistleblowing.

...because there are numerous competing companies when it comes to the vaccine and I'm pretty sure "they" don't have a stake in each of them, nor would "they" push a vaccine that was only so effective for the above mutation reasons.

 

So yes, this is tinfoil hat territory.

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40 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

There's certainly no shortage of those, yes.

 

However I maintain one would have to be insane to let loose a force of nature that cannot and will not be controlled despite its origins and could just as easily turn on you as anyone else.

 

There's too much risk and far less dangerous options avaliable if power is one's goal - see US policy on the Middle East and Chinese policy in Africa.

 

I would be, for the reasons above. Who develops a weapon with a mind of its own that could turn around and kill you as well as the enemy? There's a reason that biological weapons are the subject of binding international agreement - even the "bad guys" think using them is too risky.

We did, and the Germans, how many battles and wars have been won from using cannon fodder, even going right back to when bows and arrows were invented. We're talking about a country that has 1.4 billion people living there and limited its population to having one child. I don't think they're that worried about losing a few. I'm not necessarily saying they have by the way.

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17 hours ago, Line-X said:

I'm so, so sorry to hear this. 

 

It almost seems like a lottery doesn't it? My Father had a similar experience with bladder cancer. Regular screening and surgery that is to remove polyps from the inner lining and fortunately not invasive on the wall. Since it is low grade and given that he is in his 80s, age will get him before his cancer. His treatment wasn't interrupted by the pandemic - simply due to very fortunate timing. 

 

I have a friend who is single, lives alone and whose chemotherapy treatment for lung cancer had to be suspended during the first lockdown. Upon resumption, it has been overwhelmingly successful. He was in remission, but this summer had a seizure and the subsequent scan revealed a shadow on the brain which is also cancer. Although in terms of treatment we are sure it will continue, but another lockdown would be utterly devastating to him regarding the severing of the nexus of support around him and having to endure this again in isolation. 

 

Again, I'm really sorry to hear about your Dad. I pray that you are all able to be together this Christmas without any restriction and continue to be there for him in person during such a difficult time. 

My Dad is 80 and also a smoker.

They have been so careful these last 2 years and it’s devastating, I fear they’ll definitely be another lockdown which as you mention will have awful consequences for many many people.

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Just now, leicsmac said:

...and when the virus mutates and turns on the Chinese/the West suffers economic collapse from fighting it that causes the Chinese one to collapse in turn/other possible scenario/all of the above? What benefits of release are there then?

 

I'm sorry, but the statement isn't presumptive, it's just logical. The Chinese leadership may be many things - power-interested is certainly one of them - but what they are not are crazy and/or stupid. And you would have to be either or both of those things to release what is tantamount to a biological weapon that could easily evolve beyond your control. Like I said above, there's a reason that biological weapons were the first WMD's to be internationally agreed to be prohibited.

 

 

...because there are numerous competing companies when it comes to the vaccine and I'm pretty sure "they" don't have a stake in each of them, nor would "they" push a vaccine that was only so effective for the above mutation reasons.

 

So yes, this is tinfoil hat territory.

Not if they’ve designed something that they can keep on a tight leash at >85% accuracy, with the technology to severely crimp its potency if any further mutations occur. This virus affects the weak, elderly and infirm. China couldn’t care less if that cohort of their population dies, in fact it’s probably a good thing! And before anyone says ‘my mates neighbour was 23 and fully fit and he still died mate this thing is REAL’ yes I understand that, but it overwhelmingly affects the frail, which is a large proportion of the western population. Fat, sick and nearly dying.. 

 

it’s a highly presumptive statement tbf, the powers of the Chinese state to create a virus that can turn on an already weakened west whilst creating a ‘selected’ race of their own with minimal downside is far beyond yours or my understanding and surely can’t be ruled out.

 

I better stop now before all the knuckle draggers and #wearamask acolytes pin me. To be clear, I DO NOT BELIEVE IN THIS BUT THINK IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT

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1 hour ago, danny. said:

Haven't the conspiracy nutters been saying this since the start?

 

On the Telegraph site, if you reload and then soon after click stop it stops the paywall loading, takes a few attempts normally but works fine once you get the hang of the timing.

 

This is pretty damning and has concerning implications on a wider scale. 

 

image.thumb.png.23671949a2a3567d0476493f7ff9c915.png

I read the odd conspiracy article and dismissed it as complete lunacy.  The more this goes on, the more the conspiracy's get louder.

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8 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

We did, and the Germans, how many battles and wars have been won from using cannon fodder, even going right back to when bows and arrows were invented. We're talking about a country that has 1.4 billion people living there and limited its population to having one child. I don't think they're that worried about losing a few. I'm not necessarily saying they have by the way.

Were biological weapons used during WW2?

 

In any case, now we actually know more about the topic than we did then, we realise that we can't control such a thing - unlike more conventional weaponry. Of course "We Have Reserves" is a thing but i make the point again that a weapon of a biological nature is unlike chemicals, nuclear or any other kind of weaponry in that it has a sentience of sorts of its own.

 

7 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Not if they’ve designed something that they can keep on a tight leash at >85% accuracy, with the technology to severely crimp its potency if any further mutations occur. This virus affects the weak, elderly and infirm. China couldn’t care less if that cohort of their population dies, in fact it’s probably a good thing! And before anyone says ‘my mates neighbour was 23 and fully fit and he still died mate this thing is REAL’ yes I understand that, but it overwhelmingly affects the frail, which is a large proportion of the western population. Fat, sick and nearly dying.. 

 

it’s a highly presumptive statement tbf, the powers of the Chinese state to create a virus that can turn on an already weakened west whilst creating a ‘selected’ race of their own with minimal downside is far beyond yours or my understanding and surely can’t be ruled out.

 

I better stop now before all the knuckle draggers and #wearamask acolytes pin me. To be clear, I DO NOT BELIEVE IN THIS BUT THINK IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT

Not possible. The way a virus mutates once out in the "wild" is not something that a nation-state, even one so powerful, can totally or even nearly account for - including the effectiveness of measures against it. Not with currently existing technology, anyway.

 

With respect, humans often overestimate their capacity to control nature (there's enough movies showing exactly that) and it almost always follows that we can't. If this was a deliberate act, then it was one of the most malign stupidity and I simply can't see the Chinese going in for it when there are so many other lower-risk ways to have parts of the world eating out of their hand.

 

What you're saying is not impossible and so should be considered, but it is also illogical enough to be grossly improbable.

Edited by leicsmac
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19 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

...and when the virus mutates and turns on the Chinese/the West suffers economic collapse from fighting it that causes the Chinese one to collapse in turn/other possible scenario/all of the above? What benefits of release are there then?

 

I'm sorry, but the statement isn't presumptive, it's just logical. The Chinese leadership may be many things - power-interested is certainly one of them - but what they are not are crazy and/or stupid. And you would have to be either or both of those things to release what is tantamount to a biological weapon that could easily evolve beyond your control. Like I said above, there's a reason that biological weapons were the first WMD's to be internationally agreed to be prohibited.

 

 

...because there are numerous competing companies when it comes to the vaccine and I'm pretty sure "they" don't have a stake in each of them, nor would "they" push a vaccine that was only so effective for the above mutation reasons.

 

So yes, this is tinfoil hat territory.

 

It doesn't necessarily need to be a government sanctioned release, though.

 

Have you ever watched the film The Twelve Monkeys?

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5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Were biological weapons used during WW2?

 

In any case, now we actually know more about the topic than we did then, we realise that we can't control such a thing - unlike more conventional weaponry. Of course "We Have Reserves" is a thing but i make the point again that a weapon of a biological nature is unlike chemicals, nuclear or any other kind of weaponry in that it has a sentience of sorts of its own.

 

Not possible. The way a virus mutates once out in the "wild" is not something that a nation-state, even one so powerful, can totally or even nearly account for - including the effectiveness of measures against it. Not with currently existing technology, anyway.

 

With respect, humans often overestimate their capacity to control nature (there's enough movies showing exactly that) and it almost always follows that we can't. If this was a deliberate act, then it was one of the most malign stupidity and I simply can't see the Chinese going in for it when there are so many other lower-risk ways to have parts of the world eating out of their hand.

 

What you're saying is not impossible and so should be considered, but it is also illogical enough to be grossly improbable.

Well, yes the Japanese were and lets not forget Iraq using them against Iran.

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5 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

It doesn't necessarily need to be a government sanctioned release, though.

 

Have you ever watched the film The Twelve Monkeys?

This is true. I've watched the TV series too, which isn't bad.

 

I'd still be looking for where the pork is, though. Despite what the movies say I don't think anyone powerful and sane thinks that they can benefit more from post-apocalyptica than they can now, or with more refined methods.

 

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Well, yes the Japanese were and lets not forget Iraq using them against Iran.

...and as per the post above, we now understand the threat they represent once out in the wild and have binned them under international agreement. Why screw with that agreement when much less offensive ways of gaining power exist?

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9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Were biological weapons used during WW2?

 

In any case, now we actually know more about the topic than we did then, we realise that we can't control such a thing - unlike more conventional weaponry. Of course "We Have Reserves" is a thing but i make the point again that a weapon of a biological nature is unlike chemicals, nuclear or any other kind of weaponry in that it has a sentience of sorts of its own.

 

Not possible. The way a virus mutates once out in the "wild" is not something that a nation-state, even one so powerful, can totally or even nearly account for - including the effectiveness of measures against it. Not with currently existing technology, anyway.

 

With respect, humans often overestimate their capacity to control nature (there's enough movies showing exactly that) and it almost always follows that we can't. If this was a deliberate act, then it was one of the most malign stupidity and I simply can't see the Chinese going in for it when there are so many other lower-risk ways to have parts of the world eating out of their hand.

 

What you're saying is not impossible and so should be considered, but it is also illogical enough to be grossly improbable.

Good post, and what you’re saying is inarguable based on current knowledge.
 

I guess what I’m getting at is that our ‘current knowledge’ is probably (in my opinion only) about 50% of what is actually possible. I was invited to a meeting in the metaverse the other day with a link to order my headset. Insane. I think humans are capable of anything, always. I guess your the other side in thinking we over estimate ourselves, lots of evidence to support you!! 

 

anyway, thanks for actually reading my posts and not assuming I’m an anti covid trump supporting maniac! 

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Just now, grobyfox1990 said:

Good post, and what you’re saying is inarguable based on current knowledge.
 

I guess what I’m getting at is that our ‘current knowledge’ is probably (in my opinion only) about 50% of what is actually possible. I was invited to a meeting in the metaverse the other day with a link to order my headset. Insane. I think humans are capable of anything, always. I guess your the other side in thinking we over estimate ourselves, lots of evidence to support you!! 

 

anyway, thanks for actually reading my posts and not assuming I’m an anti covid trump supporting maniac! 

Not at all.

 

Part of good science is considering and comparing as many angles as possible and so I'm not going to dismiss this one out of hand, but rather simply explain as well as I can why it might not be likely compared to others.

 

There is probably a lot of tech that we don't know about, that is likely true. But I think that we really do have a tenuous grasp of our place on this Earth and it can be much more powerful than we ever could be, considering we really haven't been here long in geological terms. Put simply, I have much more respect and fear for the power of nature than I do for humans because I've seen what both have done in the past and frankly the Earth is a much, much more efficient killer.

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25 minutes ago, GingerrrFox said:

I just think it’s crazy to rule anything out, not saying it’s definitely an engineered virus that has been leaked deliberately but genuinely nothing would shock me anymore after the last 2 years we’ve had. 

It's bill gates master plan. Why would he come out with stuff like germ games bla bla and has interest in the lab it's come from

 

source : trust me bro

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16 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Good post, and what you’re saying is inarguable based on current knowledge.
 

I guess what I’m getting at is that our ‘current knowledge’ is probably (in my opinion only) about 50% of what is actually possible. I was invited to a meeting in the metaverse the other day with a link to order my headset. Insane. I think humans are capable of anything, always. I guess your the other side in thinking we over estimate ourselves, lots of evidence to support you!! 

 

anyway, thanks for actually reading my posts and not assuming I’m an anti covid trump supporting maniac! 

There must be a huge gap between publicly available technology and technology governments have. Compare common technology in the 1960s vs the level of technology needed to land humans in the moon. 

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14 minutes ago, danny. said:

There must be a huge gap between publicly available technology and technology governments have. Compare common technology in the 1960s vs the level of technology needed to land humans in the moon. 

I remember reading the gap between "secret" tech and it being first publicly available tends to be somewhere between a decade and two decades depending on the tech.

 

Not sure if it's true in all cases but I think it might not be far off.

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44 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Currently in excess of 80% of the most vulnerable are now boosted, and having one of the highest rates of vaccination in the world, the benefits of a lockdown are much lower this time - and far outweighed by the costs. 

 

What would tip the balance significantly however, is if the NHS is on the cusp of  being overwhelmed to the extent that it has to deny people basic life-saving care.

Hospitals are currently at 94-96% capacity and primary healthcare is also suffering together with the care sector, but the situation is very different from last winter when over a third of beds were occupied by Covid patients in January. Currently that is about a sixth. 

 

This government, asses as they are, are utterly opposed to the merest suggestion of lockdown - but this is why, with two variants in circulation it is of the utmost importance that people are fully vaccinated and get the booster - to protect the NHS. I simply can't comprehend those that don't then come on here and whine about the possibility of restrictions...even if it's simply mandatory wearing of facemasks.  

Because they are stupid, pig headed, self centered cvnts and they will never be otherwise.

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1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Were biological weapons used during WW2?

 

In any case, now we actually know more about the topic than we did then, we realise that we can't control such a thing - unlike more conventional weaponry. Of course "We Have Reserves" is a thing but i make the point again that a weapon of a biological nature is unlike chemicals, nuclear or any other kind of weaponry in that it has a sentience of sorts of its own.

 

Not possible. The way a virus mutates once out in the "wild" is not something that a nation-state, even one so powerful, can totally or even nearly account for - including the effectiveness of measures against it. Not with currently existing technology, anyway.

 

With respect, humans often overestimate their capacity to control nature (there's enough movies showing exactly that) and it almost always follows that we can't. If this was a deliberate act, then it was one of the most malign stupidity and I simply can't see the Chinese going in for it when there are so many other lower-risk ways to have parts of the world eating out of their hand.

 

What you're saying is not impossible and so should be considered, but it is also illogical enough to be grossly improbable.

The British government experimented with anthrax spores in 1942. Eighty sheep on the Scottish island of Gruinard died as a result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruinard_Island

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23 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

 

Individualism beyond a point and anti-intellectualism are going to get us all killed.

Anti-intellectualism????

 

🙄

 

Oh dear 

 

No

No

No

 

Ok yes I'm anti-intellectual..save the NHS..cancel everything people before it's too late

 

 

 

 

Edited by Adrian
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8 minutes ago, String fellow said:

The British government experimented with anthrax spores in 1942. Eighty sheep on the Scottish island of Gruinard died as a result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruinard_Island

Remember hearing about this one, interesting and thank you.

 

Just goes to show how such a thing can be dangerous beyond control.

 

5 minutes ago, Adrian said:

Anti-intellectualism????

 

🙄

 

Oh dear 

 

No

No

No

 

 

Could you please elaborate?

 

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37 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I remember reading the gap between "secret" tech and it being first publicly available tends to be somewhere between a decade and two decades depending on the tech.

 

Not sure if it's true in all cases but I think it might not be far off.

Doesn't sound unfeasible. I imagine with how technology grows exponentially we must have some very high end tech in existence that probably we can't even imagine at the moment. The UFO footage released recently by the US would attest to this (unless you think it's aliens, which seems extremely unlikely).

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