Coronavirus Thread

[yorkie1999]

11 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

10 million less what? 

people vaccinated, there's 67 million people in the UK, 47 million in spain, so the actual take up is 10 million more people.

[yorkie1999]

Just now, The Horse's Mouth said:

Because they pay their taxes I'd imagine

Unless you arrive on a rubber dingy.

[reynard]

2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

In 5 years it will be too late, the nhs can't sustain this for that amount of time, Z-Layrex has said 200 out of 400 icu staff in his trust have quit in the last year which i suspect is an exponential decrease as one person leaves followed by 3 followed by 6 as staff become dispondant etc. ! Is there a government drive going on right now to recruit nhs staff? , 30p extra an hour is going to draw them in ain't it....not.  So we're going to end up with hospitals so poorly staffed that it become impossible to actually operate, which is why i was saying about tripling nurses wages right now, we're gonna need experienced people.

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I'm not sure how you can speed up the training of an ICU nurse for eg. The problem isn't just in the hospitals, the same applies to the care services too. 

[yorkie1999]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I'm not sure how you can speed up the training of an ICU nurse for eg. The problem isn't just in the hospitals, the same applies to the care services too. 

Well, for a start, how about paying them 100 grand a year and allow any nurse from around the world to live and work here visa free.

[FoxesDeb]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

people vaccinated, there's 67 million people in the UK, 47 million in spain, so the actual take up is 10 million more people.

Yes, but I don't really understand your point? The whole end game of vaccination is to get as close to 100% of a population as possible. 

[martyn]

6 minutes ago, reynard said:

Looking a reasonable bet. I think it would be Pre-Christmas if wasn't for the political situation Boris is now in with the rebellion of his own party and the disastrous by-election result plus his own assurances Christmas would be markedly better this year.

 

I'm sure he would have been advised to increase restrictions immediately by the advisors, but as you say, politically he simply can't do it now.

 

His one potential out is London data becoming mature enough to suggest hospitals will cope, even with the massive rise in cases. 

[yorkie1999]

Just now, FoxesDeb said:

Yes, but I don't really understand your point? The whole end game of vaccination is to get as close to 100% of a population as possible. 

My point is the take up in spain is less than the uk, not more.

[adam]

25 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Fair enough, your decision...

But you, and people who decide the same should be charged for any NHS treatment you just might need!...

Might make you think again?

Why should you or those others be treated free of charge on the NHS?

I imagine he already pays for the NHS. It's definately not free. 

[reynard]

1 minute ago, yorkie1999 said:

Well, for a start, how about paying them 100 grand a year and allow any nurse from around the world to live and work here visa free.

Well that would be a start.  The pay in itself is not a mechanism to speed up the required training though it might help recruitment. As a rule having open borders and freedom of movement for workers is the way forward for a modern world. As a country we are not that far away from requiring large numbers of worker immigrants in any case. perhaps not my lifetime but definitely for younger people. And medical personnel are likely to be top of the required lists.

[FoxesDeb]

4 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

My point is the take up in spain is less than the uk, not more.

That's not how percentages work 

[CosbehFox]

Is that good news or bad news? Seeing loads comment on it like it’s bad. If the symptoms stay consistent with all those that attended, it proves the effectiveness of the vaccine plus booster 

[yorkie1999]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

Well that would be a start.  The pay in itself is not a mechanism to speed up the required training though it might help recruitment. As a rule having open borders and freedom of movement for workers is the way forward for a modern world. As a country we are not that far away from requiring large numbers of worker immigrants in any case. perhaps not my lifetime but definitely for younger people. And medical personnel are likely to be top of the required lists.

You are correct, it won't speed up the training requirement, but i bet that sort of pay would attract a fair few icu staff into the nhs, or even back into the nhs.

[reynard]

4 minutes ago, martyn said:

I'm sure he would have been advised to increase restrictions immediately by the advisors, but as you say, politically he simply can't do it now.

 

His one potential out is London data becoming mature enough to suggest hospitals will cope, even with the massive rise in cases. 

In London he's going to come under pressure from the mayor. I think we also need to factor in the fact that if this spreads at the anticipated speed we're not just talking about the NHS being overwhelmed but other public services, fire, ambulance, police. Will, there be enough carers to look after the elderly and those younger people who depend upon those services.

Businesses are already closing due to staff absences.  Unfortunately some kind of short lockdown would probably be advisable and sadly the best time would be over Christmas when a lot of people are off work and schools are shut.

[yorkie1999]

Just now, FoxesDeb said:

That's not how percentages work 

I know it's not, but percentages don't tell the actual story, raw data does.

[reynard]

1 minute ago, yorkie1999 said:

You are correct, it won't speed up the training requirement, but i bet that sort of pay would attract a fair few icu staff into the nhs, or even back into the nhs.

I think the question is how many do we need? It would be hard to say that long term we are going to require the same amount of ICU beds in regards to covid and we haven't had a pandemic for 100 years. I'm not sure if we have ever run out of ICU beds in the past. Someone will probably know. I do think though that we need to plan for a higher skilled multi skilled workforce which would, of course need to better paid. We need more people able to do more tasks.

[yorkie1999]

4 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Is that good news or bad news? Seeing loads comment on it like it’s bad. If the symptoms stay consistent with all those that attended, it proves the effectiveness of the vaccine plus booster 

Bad news imo, as they all had negative LFD's before, which is kind of how the whole country is working with regards to self monitoring for the virus at the moment.

[martyn]

3 minutes ago, reynard said:

In London he's going to come under pressure from the mayor. I think we also need to factor in the fact that if this spreads at the anticipated speed we're not just talking about the NHS being overwhelmed but other public services, fire, ambulance, police. Will, there be enough carers to look after the elderly and those younger people who depend upon those services.

Businesses are already closing due to staff absences.  Unfortunately some kind of short lockdown would probably be advisable and sadly the best time would be over Christmas when a lot of people are off work and schools are shut.

I agree, I just wonder whether in the context of London specifically whether it's even worthwhile as unless immediate action is taken, it probably won't be too long until a peak is being approached and the outcomes are all baked in anyway.

 

Maybe pressure from Khan allows Boris a political out for pre Christmas restrictions, but I just can't see it, unless hospital data is an absolute horror show over the next few days.

[Farrington fox]

So looking at the case numbers today, there is no evidence yet of exponential growth, they’ve fallen on yesterday’s.  

[SpacedX]

4 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I know it's not, but percentages don't tell the actual story, raw data does.

Incorrect. Someone else had the same misconception earlier this week. Raw/primary data is data in its original form, may be inaccurate due to missing values, incorrect information, outliers, wrong format for example. Processed data on the other hand is data that has been refined, extracted and organised and ready for use in model building. Although raw data has the potential to become "information," it requires selective extraction, organisation and analysis together with further formatting for presentation. Raw data is generally not useful on its own. This additional processing is required to turn it into useful information.  To emphasise again, users must clean raw data before it can be meaningful. Cleaning raw data may require parsing the data for easier ingestion into a computer, removing outliers or spurious results and, occasionally, reformatting or translating the data - a process sometimes called massaging or crunching the data. I avoid the term manipulating, since this has misleading connotations. 

[phoneticerror]

4 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

 

Thanks chaps.

 

I thought better be safe than sorry so ordered a home PCR test which I did and sent off yesterday, am awaiting the results. 

 

I'm feeling 80% better by today so I'm still thinking it's just a cold, would be surprised if it was Covid and I am already feeling mostly better, unless Omicron is mild like the rumours suggest.

Fingers crossed for you mate. If you’re vaxxed, then you’re likely to have an easy journey. I mainly had a bit of a headache. Loss of taste and smell was the worst thing.

[SpacedX]

4 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

So looking at the case numbers today, there is no evidence yet of exponential growth, they’ve fallen on yesterday’s.  

What? 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/easy_read

 

"90,418 new people had a confirmed positive test result reported on 18 December 2021.

Between 12 December 2021 and 18 December 2021, 513,574 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 44.4% compared to the previous 7 days."

 

London is declaring a 'major incident:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59711474

[yorkie1999]

4 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Incorrect. Someone else had the same misconception earlier this week. Raw/primary data is data in its original form, may be inaccurate due to missing values, incorrect information, outliers, wrong format for example. Processed data on the other hand is data that has been refined, extracted and organised and ready for use in model building. Although raw data has the potential to become "information," it requires selective extraction, organisation and analysis together with further formatting for presentation. Raw data is generally not useful on its own. This additional processing is required to turn it into useful information.  To emphasise again, users must clean raw data before it can be meaningful. Cleaning raw data may require parsing the data for easier ingestion into a computer, removing outliers or spurious results and, occasionally, reformatting or translating the data - a process sometimes called massaging or crunching the data. I avoid the term manipulating, since this has misleading connotations. 

Yes, but when someone gives you the processed data, as a percentage in this instance, surely that can be transposed back to the primary data. It's like being given the answer and one of the numerators first.

[SpacedX]

Just now, yorkie1999 said:

Yes, but when someone gives you the processed data, as a percentage in this instance, surely that can be transposed back to the primary data. It's like being given the answer and one of the numerators first.

I'm simply pointing out to you that this statement is incorrect -

 

"but percentages don't tell the actual story, raw data does"

 

That's all. 

[Farrington fox]

7 minutes ago, Line-X said:

What? 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/easy_read

 

"90,418 new people had a confirmed positive test result reported on 18 December 2021.

Between 12 December 2021 and 18 December 2021, 513,574 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 44.4% compared to the previous 7 days."

 

London is declaring a 'major incident:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59711474

93k yesterday 

[yorkie1999]

2 minutes ago, Line-X said:

I'm simply pointing out to you that this statement is incorrect -

 

"but percentages don't tell the actual story, raw data does"

 

That's all. 

It does in this instance.