Coronavirus Thread

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Yesterday, Piers Corbyn apparently told a large crowd in London to 'hammer to death those scum' who voted in favour of some of the new Covid-19 restrictions in the Commons. Putting it another way, he appeared to be encouraging people to murder MPs. Surely he fits the description of being 'semi-braindead' rather better than Lord Frost, who btw gained a 1st class degree at Oxford.

Just a shame that high level education evidently didn't include respect for the Earth and regard for the future, then.

 

3 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

So now it’s been revealed, SAGE were only modelling for worst case scenario’s. Re Omicron. 

 

Is there actually anything backing this or is it just another Twitter talking head jumping to conclusions about the scientific method that they know little about?

Edited 19 December 2021 by leicsmac

[pazzerfox]

@Line-X Forgive me for my basic understanding of science but i have a hypothetical question.  If everyone in the entire world went into quarantine/lockdown for 3 or 4 weeks, (meaning complete isolation from the outside world and keeping 2 metres from every member of your family, food delivery by drone, no going out of the house etc) and everyone stuck to these rules.  Would the virus disappear? 

If anyone else has an opinion, please comment.  I'm curious.

[String fellow]

The above question isn't directed at me, but nevertheless, let me say that this is something I'd also considered. The problem is that many people across the world need looking after in a manner that is wholly incompatible with such measures. They would all die without hands-on care. So it would truly be a 'survival of the fittest' scenario.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

47 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

So now it’s been revealed, SAGE were only modelling for worst case scenario’s. Re Omicron. 

 

We should sell Youri, Vardy and Fofana in January. The worst case scenario is that they all get career ending injuries this season so it's best to cash in just to be as safe as possible!

[BKLFox]

2 minutes ago, String fellow said:

The above question isn't directed at me, but nevertheless, let me say that this is something I'd also considered. The problem is that many people across the world need looking after in a manner that is wholly incompatible with such measures. They would all die without hands-on care. So it would truly be a 'survival of the fittest' scenario.

That’s it and it’s not just the sick and old, it’s you and me. It used to make me chuckle when people said ffs just close our borders and have a hard hard lockdown nobody leaves their house without any thought into the logistics of it all.

Water, electricity, nuclear power, waste disposal plants need to operate, food delivery & storage, health & emergency services just a very few things but now work up on how just these few things can operate and you have hundreds and thousands of people out and about it’s just not feasible.

[whoareyaaa]

8 minutes ago, String fellow said:

The above question isn't directed at me, but nevertheless, let me say that this is something I'd also considered. The problem is that many people across the world need looking after in a manner that is wholly incompatible with such measures. They would all die without hands-on care. So it would truly be a 'survival of the fittest' scenario.

 This would be the only way to stop it, sure they can do a test prior to giving care .. if those people are all vaccinated then what would help I think?

 

As people who are vaccinated can still pass on the virus then the only way to stop it would be mass lockdowns

 

 

[SpacedX]

57 minutes ago, pazzerfox said:

@Line-X Forgive me for my basic understanding of science but i have a hypothetical question.  If everyone in the entire world went into quarantine/lockdown for 3 or 4 weeks, (meaning complete isolation from the outside world and keeping 2 metres from every member of your family, food delivery by drone, no going out of the house etc) and everyone stuck to these rules.  Would the virus disappear? 

If anyone else has an opinion, please comment.  I'm curious.

Excellent question. 

 

SARS-CoV-2 is contagious for 4 - 6 days but we isolate for 10 to be on the safe side. However, we know that patients who have recovered from COVID-19 can continue to have detectable RNA in upper respiratory specimens for up to 3 months after illness onset. Saying that, replication-competent virus has not been reliably recovered and infectiousness is unlikely - but not impossible. Also, since incubation can in some rare cases be up to 14 days, you would need more that 3-4 weeks.  

 

In spite of all this, SARS-CoV-2 can never be eradicated since it also exists on another vector. It can however be eliminated - driven down in such a way that it would effectively disappear, and the mass isolation that you hypothetically envision would likely achieve this in tandem with concerted vaccination. At the very least it would be controllable which it currently isn't.

 

Zoonotic spillover would continue though. Viruses that are endemic in the animal kingdom will always periodically make the leap to humans.

 

 

Edited 19 December 2021 by Line-X

[whoareyaaa]

3 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Excellent question. 

 

SARS-CoV-2 is contagious for 4 - 6 days but we isolate for 10 to be on the safe side. However, we know that patients who have recovered from COVID-19 can continue to have detectable RNA in upper respiratory specimens for up to 3 months after illness onset. Saying that, replication-competent virus has not been reliably recovered and infectiousness is unlikely - but not impossible. Also, since incubation can in some rare cases be up to 14 days, you would need more that 3-4 weeks.  

 

In spite of all this, SARS-CoV-2 can never be eradicated since it also exists on another vector. It can however be eliminated - driven down in such a way that it would effectively disappear, and the mass isolation that you hypothetically envision would likely achieve this in tandem with concerted vaccination. At the very least it would be controllable which it currently isn't.

 

Zoonotic spillover would continue though. Viruses that are endemic in the animal kingdom will always periodically make the leap to humans.

 

 

This has came out of a lab though so that is very unlikely to happen surely? unless they kept releasing them from labs of course.. in human history how many times has that happened?

[pleatout]

9 hours ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

What about the ward refurbishments at Glenfield about 10 years ago?

 

Our company were fitting the new sense operated basin taps at £1000 a pop, doing various numbers of wards. The hospital meanwhile decided that what they’d specified weren’t fit for purpose, and the wards that were finished first were in the process of having them removed and replaced with something else 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

 

No idea,  But how about the legislation/ best practice changed between project spec and fitting ?

 

You'd be surprised at the "issues" we have to deal with.  Ligatures are a Biggie.  Did you know patients can hang themselves from a radiator?  You know a normal everyday knee high radiator. 

 

The cost of sinks, taps, radiators, doors etc etc go through the roof once you take patient safety into account.  The the has to design everything around the most vulnerable people in society.

 

 

 

[pleatout]

9 hours ago, Strokes said:

We get so much money wastage in servicing and maintaining hospitals fire alarms.

Sat around for hours on end waiting for permits to be signed. One time I waited 6 hours (2 men) for one.

You can't just wander into wards, clinics and operating areas you know.

 

Oh and we just might be a bit busy doing something slightly more important like trying to keep some alive.

 

Sorry if this doesn't meet your idea of what efficient looks like.  Sadly we can't always book in heart attacks and car crashes to fit around 3rd party contractors.

 

[pleatout]

9 hours ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

Unnecessary red tape in many aspects. 
 

Permits to work

Hot work permits

Working at heights

 

You name it, there’s a piece of paper about it and a signature required on it 😂

One trust I know put sensors on the wall in wards.  They covered patients in asbestos.

 

It's health and safety gone mad all this ref tape 

[SpacedX]

1 minute ago, whoareyaaa said:

This has came out of a lab though so that is very unlikely to happen surely? unless they kept releasing them from labs of course.. in human history how many times has that happened?

Sigh. This is genuinely making me weary now.

 

It is extremely unlikely to have come out of a lab - it is a result of zoonotic leap to humans. There is absolutely zero evidence in support of the lab leak theory. Throughout the history of human pathology we have experienced zoonotic spillover - amongst these coronaviruses. Moreover, where do you think influenza originated? - a lab leak in the 14th century?

 

There is also emerging evidence according to a preliminary analysis of viral genomes sampled from people infected in China and elsewhere early in the pandemic. that SARS-CoV-2, could have spilled from animals to people multiple times.

[pleatout]

9 hours ago, Strokes said:

The estates teams, we have to get permits to shutdown parts of the system for repair works. 
It’s pretty planned, they called us in.

Madness.

Oh yes, estates.

 

Is that the estates that were privatised?

 

And then the private company suddenly realised it actually couldn't do the job and make money and went bust?

 

It's ok, the NHS picked it back up.

 

[rachhere]

1 hour ago, Farrington fox said:

So now it’s been revealed, SAGE were only modelling for worst case scenario’s. Re Omicron. 

 

If Ministers didn’t realise this then they weren’t asking the right questions. The first thing I would ask in this situation is ‘what assumptions are you using in this model’. 

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Sigh. This is genuinely making me weary now.

 

It is extremely unlikely to have come out of a lab - it is a result of zoonotic leap to humans. There is absolutely zero evidence in support of the lab leak theory. Throughout the history of human pathology we have experienced zoonotic spillover - amongst these coronaviruses. Moreover, where do you think influenza originated? - a lab leak in the 14th century?

 

There is also emerging evidence according to a preliminary analysis of viral genomes sampled from people infected in China and elsewhere early in the pandemic. that SARS-CoV-2, could have spilled from animals to people multiple times.

The lab leak theory is theoretically possible, but far less possible than zoonotic transmission and it's mostly used as an excuse by people to blame humans (in this case, the Chinese, Yellow Peril is in vogue again apparently) rather than nature for current events.

 

Depressingly human.

[String fellow]

8 minutes ago, pleatout said:

One trust I know put sensors on the wall in wards.  They covered patients in asbestos.

 

It's health and safety gone mad all this ref tape 

Asbestos?

[whoareyaaa]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

The lab leak theory is theoretically possible, but far less possible than zoonotic transmission and it's mostly used as an excuse by people to blame humans (in this case, the Chinese, Yellow Peril is in vogue again apparently) rather than nature for current events.

 

Depressingly human.

Humans are stupid enough to make this error.. its far more unlikely to have come from animals to humans.

 

You won't prove it though as the data has been wiped out

[Fox in the North]

1 minute ago, whoareyaaa said:

Humans are stupid enough to make this error.. its far more unlikely to have come from animals to humans.

 

You won't prove it though as the data has been wiped out

So then how can you prove it other than your opinion?

[whoareyaaa]

Just now, Fox in the North said:

So then how can you prove it other than your opinion?

You wont

[Fox in the North]

4 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

You wont

So if you can’t prove it, whereas there is plenty of proof regarding zoonotic transmission, then that seems a really weak basis to put your point of view across, doesn’t it? 

Edited 19 December 2021 by Fox in the North

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Humans are stupid enough to make this error.. its far more unlikely to have come from animals to humans.

 

You won't prove it though as the data has been wiped out

I agree that it won't be conclusively proven either way, though the general consensus at the present time is in favour of zoonotic origin.

 

However, with that being true, what's the point in the discussion in the first place, other than (again) a stick being used to bash a human antagonist than an act of nature because it's easier?

[Lionator]

20 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Humans are stupid enough to make this error.. its far more unlikely to have come from animals to humans.

 

You won't prove it though as the data has been wiped out

This is genuinely nuts.

 

There was actually a paper out this week which showed that European bats carry a coronavirus which was 1 mutation from being sars-cov-2 which has pretty much ended the debate. 

[ealingfox]

1 hour ago, Farrington fox said:

So now it’s been revealed, SAGE were only modelling for worst case scenario’s. Re Omicron. 

 

 

So? What is the significance of this other than these bad-faith actors using it as bait for rabble-rousing?

 

Firstly, as was clearly stated they modelled what they were asked to model. Stop trying to shift blame on to advisors, they don't decide anything.

 

Why would you waste time modelling scenarios where no action or decisions is required? Like creating a personal savings plan for a scenario where you happen to find a grand on the floor twice a week. It's not important.

[SpacedX]

5 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Humans are stupid enough to make this error.. its far more unlikely to have come from animals to humans.

 

You won't prove it though as the data has been wiped out

Seriously, why are you feeling the need to comment on subjects that you have shown that you know absolutely nothing whatsoever about? This is everything that is wrong with the internet. Everyone must have an "opinion" which is itself driven by opinion and the internet allows a platform for those with nothing to say, to have their "say" simply because they can. When you challenge this, people then get indignant and defensive. And it gets worse. Once again on here - opinion stated as fact...

 

43 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

This has came out of a lab though 

 

As @leicsmac said, a lab leak is theoretically possible, Wuhan has one of the most sophisticated virological laboratories in China, the suggestion is the virus may have inadvertently been released into the general community via one of the workers. No direct evidence whatosever supports this hypothesis. Conversely, data and evidence based science in support of zoonotic spillover mounts every day. At this stage understand that you are disputing the very field of virology that you are wholly ignorant about - nothing to do with me. 

 

https://virological.org/t/evidence-against-the-veracity-of-sars-cov-2-genomes-intermediate-between-lineages-a-and-b/754

 

The above study is based on a detailed examination of the genetic sequences of two early lineages obtained from people infected in late 2019 and early 2020. For ease of understanding, these two lineages are called A and B. The two lineages differ by just two nucleotides at two different key sites in the genetic sequence. Assuming a single lab escape event, the separation into lineages A and B must have happened after the lab escape. You would then expect to see a substantial number of intermediate lineages, with the lineage A nucleotide at one site, and the lineage B nucleotide at the other site. What you find is that all of the genetic sequences obtained from humans are “pure” lineage A or pure lineage B,suggesting there were at least two different spillover events, either directly from bats or via bridge hosts. Furthermore, the evolution of the two lineages occurred before humans were infected. The genetic evidence, therefore, suggests very strongly there have been at least two separate spillover events into human populations, one being from lineage A and another being from lineage B.

 

As humans encroach more and more on the habitats of wild animals and as wild animals are brought more frequently into close contact with humans, we can expect further spillovers and pandemics to occur. These have happened throughout our history as a species. 

[weller54]

Clearly there'll be no New Year celebrations allowed..

The advice is..

Get double bladdered on Christmas Day!