Coronavirus Thread

[Vestan Pance]

11 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I find it incredible that there are increasing numbers of people in this thread that will not question the narrative.  That's what 18+ months of manipulating behavioural science does to the human mind.  

 

https://cognitiveresearchjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41235-021-00301-5

 

 

People like to stick all of their eggs in one basket, and are usually disappointed when the truth turns out to be somewhere in the middle.

[GingerrrFox]

7 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

I'm starting to feel like there's more intelligence in one of our match threads. 

Has a Dr who specialises in cell engineering at one of the best Universities in the world, coming out and saying that our lives have potentially been turned upside down by a laboratory in China that was playing God with piss poor safety protocols, wound you up that much that you have to resort to playground comments Deb? 

Edited 20 December 2021 by GingerrrFox

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, danny. said:

Shared with what? You have said a couple of times SARS shares 96% of its genome with a bat.

 

Maybe just cut down on the long words and give a simple answer to a simple question? Feels like you’re obfuscating an error…

? You asked for further clarification and I am giving it to you. I can put it back into simpler terms if you like, but as you correctly say, it isn't very helpful. 

 

Ok. from this paper: https://respiratory-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12931-020-01581-z

 

I quote directly: "SARS-CoV-2 shares 96% genome similarity with a bat Coronavirus". Which as you rightly say. is overly simplistic. However it does provide several references for the statement which has been widely referred to, - including by myself. Here is one of them.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194821/

 

Which tells us the following:

 

"Comparative genomic analysis has been greatly assisted by the availability of a related virus from a Rhinolophus affinis (i.e., horseshoe) bat sampled in Yunnan province, China, in 2013 (Zhou et al., 2020). This virus, denoted RaTG13, is ∼96% similar to SARS-CoV-2 at the nucleotide sequence level."

 

For further clarification, DNA molecules are composed of four nucleotides which are linked together like a code. Together, all of the DNA codes or sentences within a cell contain the instructions for building the proteins and other molecules that the cell needs to carry out its daily work.

 

The original findings are here:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095418/

 

and here:

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2951-z

 

The team is lead by Peng Zhou. This just one academic from a very large community of virologists intensively studying bat SARS-related coronaviruses over the last decade to provide new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus.

 

There was an article somewhere about their work - scouring bat colonies/caves throughout south-east Asia. I'll try to find it tomorrow if you are interested. 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/12/14/are-we-overhyping-the-threat-of-omicron/

 

Heneghan is pretty level headed.  Yet he's become another scientist confined to the scrap heap as he doesn't tow the official line. 

 

As for Fauci, this is pretty damning tbf:

 

https://www.rt.com/usa/543684-emails-fauci-collins-herd-immunity/

 

There's always an alternate point of view.  But too often silenced for the past 18+ months.  There's no balance to the discussion.

[The Horse's Mouth]

15 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

I'm starting to feel like there's more intelligence in one of our match threads. 

You can't deny it's more entertaining

[Legend_in_blue]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-the-bbc-lost-its-way-on-covid

 

100% and goodnight.  

[jammie82uk]

1 hour ago, GingerrrFox said:

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2074

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

 

Interpretation

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.

It might be a similar viral load but that first bit is the important part

[The Horse's Mouth]

Watched a lot on Omicron today and it does seem like this variant should be a reason to be positive long term wise 

[SpacedX]

29 minutes ago, GingerrrFox said:

Dr Alina Chan, who is a specialist in gene therapy and cell engineering at MIT and Harvard in the USA, has come out and said that after 2 years of searching, no animal host has been found. She also said there was a risk that Covid-19 was an engineered virus.

 

 

Dr Chan, said: “I think the lab origin is more likely than not. Right now it’s not safe for people who know about the origin of the pandemic to come forward. But we live in an era where there is so much information being stored that it will eventually come out. 

“We have heard from many top virologists that a genetically engineered origin is reasonable and that includes virologists who made modifications to the first Sars virus. 

“We know this virus has a unique feature, called the furin cleavage site, and without this feature there is no way this would be causing this pandemic.

“A proposal was leaked showing that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology were developing a pipeline for inserting novel furin cleavage sites. So, you find these scientists who said in early 2018 ‘I’m going to put horns on horses’ and at the end of 2019 a unicorn turns up in Wuhan city.” 

The furin cleavage point on Covid-19 is part of the spike protein which helps it to enter cells.

 

Yet everyone here is so quick to dismiss the lab leak possibility 🤔. 

Alina Chan is one of a group of academics that posit the lab leak theory. The details in this statement have already been widely commented upon by the field. To explain. Many other pathogens within the coronavirus family have furin cleavage sites, including the common cold. These viruses containing the site are strewn across the coronavirus family tree as opposed to being the preserve of closely related viruses. All prior research indicates that the site evolved multiple times in search of evolutionary advantage. What is known as convergent evolution, the process by which organisms that aren’t closely related independently evolve similar traits as a result of adapting to similar environmental circumstances is incredibly common.

 

Again, this is nothing new. You are simply posting confirmation bias and appeal to authority. 

 

People are not dismissing the lab leak possibility, because it is precisely that - a possibility. However, the evidence is circumstantial whilst the consilience across multiple related/cognate fields from the scientific evidence that we have is that it is of zoonotic origin. 

 

A balanced and objective appraisal of all the available evidence - including the suggestions in support of the lab leak theory can be found here. I am providing it as a source because it is the most impartial representation and breakdown of all the evidence that we have as opposed to cherry picking and quote mining views that conform to any preconceptions. 

 

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00991-0

 

The entire scientific content is fully referenced and the sources are independently verifiable. The weight of evidence is solely based upon what we know and the science that informs that. Anyone on this thread is welcome to falsify any aspect of it. In fact, I encourage and invite you to do so. 

[FoxesDeb]

32 minutes ago, GingerrrFox said:

Has a Dr who specialises in cell engineering at one of the best Universities in the world, coming out and saying that our lives have potentially been turned upside down by a laboratory in China that was playing God with piss poor safety protocols, wound you up that much that you have to resort to playground comments Deb? 

Why would I be wound up by that? 

 

Of course it may potentially have come from a lab, I haven't said otherwise... 

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, ARM1968 said:

Nope. Not at all. Very successful people. Bit repressive governmental system - but then these days, whose aren’t?  Just wondered why he is so against the obvious. 

There's nothing obvious about it, which is why he's against it and why I asked.

 

It has been said, repeatedly and backed with evidence based on scientific consensus, not a maverick or two, that both theories are possible and the zoonotic origin is the more likely of the two. And the Earth is an oblate spheroid and humans are causing the global average temperature to rise.

 

That's it, really.

 

53 minutes ago, ARM1968 said:

Yes, this article and others show that many know the origin of the virus was the Wuhan lab. The paper trail is pretty conclusive. However it is not something that can be officially acknowledged without serious, and potentially catastrophic, consequences.

 

Thats why some keep chasing bats in the belfry. Odd when it’s so damned obvious. 

They "know" nothing of the sort.

 

As above,  stating opinion as fact might sound good but doesn't actually make it so.

Edited 20 December 2021 by leicsmac

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, Sly said:

Malaria is greatly aided by bloody mosquitos. 
 

Can you imagine if we ever had a nuclear war? That would strip anything we’ve seen. 

A nuclear war is perhaps the one area where we might be able to rival nature in causing extinction with currently existing technology.

 

Though I'm inclined to think even it wouldn't be as bad as some of the extinction events in the past.

[Dunge]

Out of all of the conspiracy theory stuff that’s been around since the start of the pandemic - the “virus isn’t real”, the “virus is no worse than flu really”, the “this is softening us up for authoritarianism”, the “one world, look it up sheeple” stuff - the only one I’ve ever felt might have some legs was the lab leak theory. It’s one I’ve been willing to listen to because it’s the only one that has any logical sense to it on a basic level.

 

But it’s also the one that, actually, doesn’t matter. I mean, obviously it would matter if it was part of some one world plot look it up sheeple, but that’s clearly nonsense. No way does anyone come up with anything that convoluted and unpredictable, quite aside from it being at odds with everything we know and are concerned about regarding the most powerful world governments. So then I ask: Could this have been accidentally released from a lab? Is it human error?

 

And here’s the thing: If it was, then what exactly do you intend to do about it?

What should we do different? (Nothing)

How does it change the course of the virus? (It doesn’t)

Does it make Piers Corbyn any less of a lunatic? (No)

 

So, what? Aside from maybe wanting to sue China, why does it matter? Aside from for scientific accuracy and knowledge for the future? And if that’s the only reason, why the hell do people need an “opinion” on it? What does someone’s opinion matter? It doesn’t affect political decisions, at least not along the lines of how to respond to the current pandemic, although it might be helpful in informing potential future ones. It’s a matter for research, a matter for record and science. And Line-X’s arguments are by far the more compelling.

[HankMarvin]

Can anyone shed any light on these figures 

 

Population impact
The impact of the vaccination programme on the population is assessed by taking into account vaccine coverage, evidence on vaccine effectiveness and the latest COVID-19 disease surveillance indicators.
Vaccine coverage tells us about the proportion of the population that have received 1, 2 and 3 doses of COVID-19 vaccines. By 12 December 2021, the overall vaccine uptake in England for dose 1 was 67.9% and for dose 2 was 62.2%. Overall vaccine uptake in England in people with at least 3 doses was 31.4%. In line with the programme rollout, coverage is highest in the oldest age groups.

 

This is from the vaccine surveillance report week 50.

 

I thought just 5 million are unvaccinated according to MSM?

[Dunge]

Just now, HankMarvin said:

Can anyone shed any light on these figures 

 

Population impact
The impact of the vaccination programme on the population is assessed by taking into account vaccine coverage, evidence on vaccine effectiveness and the latest COVID-19 disease surveillance indicators.
Vaccine coverage tells us about the proportion of the population that have received 1, 2 and 3 doses of COVID-19 vaccines. By 12 December 2021, the overall vaccine uptake in England for dose 1 was 67.9% and for dose 2 was 62.2%. Overall vaccine uptake in England in people with at least 3 doses was 31.4%. In line with the programme rollout, coverage is highest in the oldest age groups.

 

This is from the vaccine surveillance report week 50.

 

I thought just 5 million are unvaccinated according to MSM?

Without researching the numbers exactly, I suspect the percentages are for all ages and the 5 million is referring to just adults.

[dsr-burnley]

Just now, Dunge said:

Without researching the numbers exactly, I suspect the percentages are for all ages and the 5 million is referring to just adults.

Correct.  About 14 million children aged 11 and under are not vaccinated and are not eligible to be vaccinated.  The 5m refuseniks probably excludes 12-17 year olds as well because they haven't properly had time to be fully vaccinated.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Out of all of the conspiracy theory stuff that’s been around since the start of the pandemic - the “virus isn’t real”, the “virus is no worse than flu really”, the “this is softening us up for authoritarianism”, the “one world, look it up sheeple” stuff - the only one I’ve ever felt might have some legs was the lab leak theory. It’s one I’ve been willing to listen to because it’s the only one that has any logical sense to it on a basic level.

 

But it’s also the one that, actually, doesn’t matter. I mean, obviously it would matter if it was part of some one world plot look it up sheeple, but that’s clearly nonsense. No way does anyone come up with anything that convoluted and unpredictable, quite aside from it being at odds with everything we know and are concerned about regarding the most powerful world governments. So then I ask: Could this have been accidentally released from a lab? Is it human error?

 

And here’s the thing: If it was, then what exactly do you intend to do about it?

What should we do different? (Nothing)

How does it change the course of the virus? (It doesn’t)

Does it make Piers Corbyn any less of a lunatic? (No)

 

So, what? Aside from maybe wanting to sue China, why does it matter? Aside from for scientific accuracy and knowledge for the future? And if that’s the only reason, why the hell do people need an “opinion” on it? What does someone’s opinion matter? It doesn’t affect political decisions, at least not along the lines of how to respond to the current pandemic, although it might be helpful in informing potential future ones. It’s a matter for research, a matter for record and science. And Line-X’s arguments are by far the more compelling.

This is a point I made yesterday, too.

 

AFAIC it only matters for many as a political football to bash the Chinese with. 

 

There are many reasons to dislike the Chinese government. Something like this is not one of them.

[dsr-burnley]

4 hours ago, st albans fox said:

IM WRITING THIS IN CAPITAL LETTERS SO THAT SOME OF YOU MIGHT JUST UNDERSTAND IT

 

PREDICTIONS OF CASES ARE PREDICTIONS OF ALL CASES 

 

THEY ARE.NOT PREDICTIONS OF POSITIVE PCR TEST RESULTS AS REPORTED BY GOVT

 

UP TO A THIRD OF CASES ARE ASYMPTOMATIC -  THEY WILL BE V UNLIKELY TO BE IN GOVT FIGURES 

 

LOTS OF PEOPLE DONT BOTHER TO GET PCR TESTS BECAUSE THEY DONT WANT TO ISOLATE AND BE CONTACTED BY TEST AND TRACE 

 

hence if we had 90k positive PCR test results on Friday it’s not a stretch to think that the real number of infections on Friday could be 200k 

 

and the omicron recorded cases are a load of rubbish - ignore them 

 

btw, was your graph worst case scenario or best case scenario or middle ground ??

Do you shout at foreigners as well if their English isn't very good?  

 

Seriously, the numbers do beg a vital question.  If the proportion of people with coronavirus is rising very rapidly day by day, then why isn't the proportion of people being tested rising very rapidly?  There are several possible reasons why this may be an unusual statistical anomaly, but the prima facie most likely reason is that cases aren't rising as fast as we think.

[dsr-burnley]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

This is a point I made yesterday, too.

 

AFAIC it only matters for many as a political football to bash the Chinese with. 

 

There are many reasons to dislike the Chinese government. Something like this is not one of them.

If you believe that the Chinese government has co-operated fully with WHO and other enquiries and has done its best to minimise the damage of this pandemic, then fair enough.  But as far as I can see, they haven't.  

[Daggers]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

I'm starting to feel like there's more intelligence in one of our match threads. 

It’s a close run contest, I’d hesitate to plump for one over the other.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

If you believe that the Chinese government has co-operated fully with WHO and other enquiries and has done its best to minimise the damage of this pandemic, then fair enough.  But as far as I can see, they haven't.  

...where did I say that?

 

It seems obvious that the Chinese government did hinder the investigation into the origins of this thing, and that's not good. But that on its own doesn't prove guilt for the virus itself and its effects everywhere, which a lot of people seem to want to pin on them because they need someone to blame for an act of nature. That was the point being made, apologies if it wasn't clear.

[HankMarvin]

20 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Do you shout at foreigners as well if their English isn't very good?  

 

Seriously, the numbers do beg a vital question.  If the proportion of people with coronavirus is rising very rapidly day by day, then why isn't the proportion of people being tested rising very rapidly?  There are several possible reasons why this may be an unusual statistical anomaly, but the prima facie most likely reason is that cases aren't rising as fast as we think.

The last 2 days show a 18% increase in testing based on the previous days?

[dsr-burnley]

23 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

The last 2 days show a 18% increase in testing based on the previous days?

Sorry, I expressed it badly.  What I meant to say was, if the proportion of people with coronavirus is rising, then the proportion of positive tests to total tests should be rising as well.  It isn't.

 

[WigstonWanderer]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

This is a point I made yesterday, too.

 

AFAIC it only matters for many as a political football to bash the Chinese with. 

 

There are many reasons to dislike the Chinese government. Something like this is not one of them.

If the virus was ever proved to be man made (repeat IF), it may have ramifications on what types of research are safe and which should be restricted or banned to ensure this is not repeated. The more we know about the origin, the more can be done to prevent it happening again, whether lab or animal derived.

Edited 20 December 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[st albans fox]

5 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Sorry, I expressed it badly.  What I meant to say was, if the proportion of people with coronavirus is rising, then the proportion of positive tests to total tests should be rising as well.  It isn't.

 

Well no for two massive reasons 

1) people are not taking a PCR ahead of Xmas as they will manage their condition away from test and trace (and the law) 

2) there is now a legal requirement to show a negative LFT test to access hospitality for those not double jabbed. Hence there is now a huge influx of reported negative LFT tests in the figures which wasn’t there a week ago.  (No one registers their neg LFT’s unless they have to ?)

3) there is less availability of LFT’s test kits - I expect this has less impact at this time although if not resolved it will by Xmas 

 

I hate to be smug about a reply but I reckon this may the the smuggest reply I have ever given on FT 

 

(cue someone to diss my response and me to crawl back to bed ………)