Coronavirus Thread

[reynard]

Interactive map of cases | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

 

If you look in the London area on the map (figures are only up to 15th December) the percentage increases in the area are very high based on a 7 day comparison. Infection rates also very high per 100K. I would think it unlikely the rates have improved much since the 15th December.

[reynard]

1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

My symptoms mirror omicron exactly. Plus those colleagues who have it too, many of them have had covid before. 

 

All of us reporting same symptoms: runny nose, cold like feeling and achiness

Hope you get well soon.

[st albans fox]

7 minutes ago, reynard said:

Hugh Pym on BBC news has just reported that there are 500 more people in hospital in London with Covid this week than last week when the number was around 1600. So roughly a third more in a week. Not sure where he got the figure from.

The numbers on the graph posted half an hour ago show the week to 18/12 approx 1200 and the previous  week 850.  It’s not too far fetched that two days on the seven day rolling increase is 500. 

[pleatout]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Those numbers seem to show daily admissions in London being around 150 a week or so ago and now over 200 

 

i’d say that’s a notable increase and the case numbers only rocketed a week ago so hospitalisations will not react to that for another few days yet ….

 

 

I have a massive issue with the media using admissions figures.  What about discharges?  It's a nonsense to talk about the numbers going into hospital without balancing that with numbers leaving.

 

The number to look at is the 8 am census of numbers in hospital. 

 

7482 - 17th dec (latest figures) down from 9671 1st Nov.  Peak was 38000 last jan.  The numbers arent going up (yet).  They've been below 8000 since 23rd nov.

 

I expect they will go up in the coming days/weeks.

 

 

[Nod.E]

4 hours ago, Line-X said:

I'm really sorry to hear that - what a shit timing, but this is so ridiculously contagious it seems almost inevitable. As you know, seven of my family came down with it last week - three are teachers, one works in clinical healthcare, it then spread to their partners/families. Four of them are in London, two in Birmingham, one in Leicester. My daughter registered with track and trace yesterday and she's been bombarded with phone calls since. 

 

Ensure that you test again and sort a PCR test?

 

LFTs are very accurate and dependable in terms of positive results. The issue is, the amount of false negatives. Given our reliance and faith in these as a 'green light' in terms of mixing, the inaccuracies have always concerned me. But as @HighPeakFox says, it's all we have and we do need to test. 

 

 

Won't more people treat a negative test as a green light than the number of people that might have chosen not to go out with cold symptoms in a world without tests, just in case?

 

My partner who is very keen to do the 'right thing' at all times r.e. Covid (masks everywhere, wants restrictions brought in early etc.) made this mistake. If she can make that mistake the average person who doesn't care all that much is likely to, too.

 

I really don't think we're at a point that people with cold symptoms think they're a problem, and tests that regularly provide false negatives are a large factor in that.

 

Honestly? I had a cold last week. Could have been Covid. I'd be lying if I said I isolated, but I did stay home much more than I otherwise would have, just in case. I wasn't about to download an app and be hounded, though. I didn't feel ill enough to warrant a PCR either.

 

I realise this may sound selfish but it's so infectious and so inevitable that I have kind of liberated myself of responsibility by this point. I could just as easily have had Covid and been asymptomatic anyway (assuming I had it at all.)

Edited 21 December 2021 by Nod.E

[Legend_in_blue]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

My symptoms mirror omicron exactly. Plus those colleagues who have it too, many of them have had covid before. 

 

All of us reporting same symptoms: runny nose, cold like feeling and achiness

I had all 5 symptoms a few weeks back.  No idea if it was it or not.  Treated as a cold, felt like a cold, just carried on as much as possible whilst dosed up on lemsip.

 

Probably a cold but who knows?  

[leicsmac]

11 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Not sure who Dunge is and i get the logic of your argument, but personally i think we absolutely should know why we've had our whole lives turned upside down for 2 years and counting, and probably forever more. Like most things in the world i assume the whole truth will never come out, however.

Can't disagree there.

 

However, I will say simply that sometimes there is no human agency responsible. Sometimes nature just takes a look at humanity and arbitrarily says... "here, sort this shit out."

 

10 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Understand that we are stuck between a rock and hard place right now. Here's where I have a problem with our current situation and that's after nearly two years supportive of the steps being taken. 

 

- We have a vaccination which has in effect for 85% (latest study in regards to Omicron) of people made the virus become something manageable and treatable from home. Those of that do catch will have a level of immunity for a period of time. 

- We are (on adults) about 80% of the nation's population double vaccinated and 50% of boosted. Evidence suggests that the double vaccinations are not going to go much higher. 

- We have a new variant where we are being told that more data is required to assert its seriousness. However, projections are being made from minimal data. 

- We have a public now tired of the situation; compliance is waning and the services simply won't be able to keep control on it thanks to a government who've personally ignored the rules. 

- Now we have evidence that existing vaccines need adapting from the latest variant. Which could repeat annually. 

 

 

At what point do you accept that this could be a cycle of variants and rather than throwing money on track/trace and all the vaccination campaigns. Instead begin to invest on training medical staff, increasing ICU capacity, anti-viral medication and aftercare from recovery for those unfortunate enough to suffer badly. 

 

The current point of attacking this virus isn't working. Restrictions across the world are not working; they are too slow and too slack to truly work. We have to accept that a large section of the worlds population is never going to get vaccinated (the larger cities of this country currently sit on 60ish %).  That's even within established Western countries. And to round it off, you will catch it regardless of vaccination status. 

 

Those at the top have to start thinking out of the box. It's quite a 180 degree turn I've done recently but I just don't see the end to all if we carry on with this latest tactics. I have had enough. Personally I am not far off breaking point with it and its cycles of doom. 

This is an astute analysis.

 

The only thing I'll add is that with any luck within a certain amount of time such measures will become unnecessary because the virus will have mutated into a form that just becomes endemic but is (mainly) harmless.

[The Year Of The Fox]

12 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Understand that we are stuck between a rock and hard place right now. Here's where I have a problem with our current situation and that's after nearly two years supportive of the steps being taken. 

 

- We have a vaccination which has in effect for 85% (latest study in regards to Omicron) of people made the virus become something manageable and treatable from home. Those of that do catch will have a level of immunity for a period of time. 

- We are (on adults) about 80% of the nation's population double vaccinated and 50% of boosted. Evidence suggests that the double vaccinations are not going to go much higher. 

- We have a new variant where we are being told that more data is required to assert its seriousness. However, projections are being made from minimal data. 

- We have a public now tired of the situation; compliance is waning and the services simply won't be able to keep control on it thanks to a government who've personally ignored the rules. 

- Now we have evidence that existing vaccines need adapting from the latest variant. Which could repeat annually. 

 

 

At what point do you accept that this could be a cycle of variants and rather than throwing money on track/trace and all the vaccination campaigns. Instead begin to invest on training medical staff, increasing ICU capacity, anti-viral medication and aftercare from recovery for those unfortunate enough to suffer badly. 

 

The current point of attacking this virus isn't working. Restrictions across the world are not working; they are too slow and too slack to truly work. We have to accept that a large section of the worlds population is never going to get vaccinated (the larger cities of this country currently sit on 60ish %).  That's even within established Western countries. And to round it off, you will catch it regardless of vaccination status. 

 

Those at the top have to start thinking out of the box. It's quite a 180 degree turn I've done recently but I just don't see the end to all if we carry on with this latest tactics. I have had enough. Personally I am not far off breaking point with it and its cycles of doom. 

This is on the money

 

The adage of, ‘Prevention is better than cure’ isn’t relevant in COVID’s case. We simply can’t prevent it for any number of reasons. 
 

The only way out of this thing is by ensuring the country has the means to look after the COVID patients whilst having the capacity for the rest of the NHS to carry normal day to day treatments unaffected. Until that day comes, the last two years in this country are going to be our norm 

[grobyfox1990]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Can't disagree there.

 

However, I will say simply that sometimes there is no human agency responsible. Sometimes nature just takes a look at humanity and arbitrarily says... "here, sort this shit out."

 

This is an astute analysis.

 

The only thing I'll add is that with any luck within a certain amount of time such measures will become unnecessary because the virus will have mutated into a form that just becomes endemic but is (mainly) harmless.

Oh totally agree. I think it’s likely nature is totally responsible for this. And if that is the case, we should know how and why it happened. Sorry, probably didn’t come across clearly in my first few comments!!

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Oh totally agree. I think it’s likely nature is totally responsible for this. And if that is the case, we should know how and why it happened. Sorry, probably didn’t come across clearly in my first few comments!!

Not at all, I understand!

 

It's definitely in scientific interest to know as much about any natural origin of this virus as we can.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Oh totally agree. I think it’s likely nature is totally responsible for this. And if that is the case, we should know how and why it happened. Sorry, probably didn’t come across clearly in my first few comments!!

Cultures in other parts of the world are very different to here when it comes to eating.

 

however, I’m sure someone can think of stuff we do in the west that is likely to lead to massive global health issues 

 

the over use of antibiotics for a start …….

[hejammy]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Cultures in other parts of the world are very different to here when it comes to eating.

 

however, I’m sure someone can think of stuff we do in the west that is likely to lead to massive global health issues 

 

the over use of antibiotics for a start …….

Overuse of antibiotics isn't just a Western problem, in most of the Eastern world you can simply buy antibiotics over the counter and people take them for things like the common cold. (used much like paracetamol is used here) unfortunately antibiotics overuse is a world wide problem and potentially could be more dangerous than the current situation we are in. Scientists are trying to develop new types of antibiotics all the time but there's a limit. If a type of bacteria develops to resist all of the current antibiotics on offer we are going to be royally screwed and no vaccine will fix that! 

[CosbehFox]

i see the WHO popped out yesterday to say that 2022 is the year the pandemic needs to go. 
 

Well we need to start get that vaccine across the world. Can’t be stressed enough!

Edited 21 December 2021 by Cardiff_Fox

[whoareyaaa]

10 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

i see the WHO popped yesterday to say that 2022 is the year the pandemic needs to go. 
 

Well we need to start get that vaccine across the world. Can’t be stressed enough!

We probably need a better vaccine which they are probably working on the more they know the better they can produce the vaccine that will ultimately stop it from causing death

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said:

We probably need a better vaccine which they are probably working on the more they know the better they can produce the vaccine that will ultimately stop it from causing death

Probably help as well though if the richer countries didn't hoard them... 

Edited 21 December 2021 by StanSP

[yorkie1999]

11 hours ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Cases on the downwards trend in London already surely not? 

I've just been listening to the national chair of south african medical asscociation, wish we had someone like her as you could actually understand what she was on about,

 

The cases in in the province where omicron was first detected are going down

666 hospitals

18th dec 87 admisions

535 in icu, not all admitted with covid

212 on ventilators

9 out of 10 in icu not vaccinated. 

There's more people going for tests than vaccines.

 

That's how it is, no but's, no if's, no aguement for not being vaccinated.

[SpacedX]

7 hours ago, Nod.E said:

Won't more people treat a negative test as a green light than the number of people that might have chosen not to go out with cold symptoms in a world without tests, just in case?

 

I had to read this three times, but yes, I think that's what I was getting at.

 

8 hours ago, Nod.E said:

but it's so infectious and so inevitable

That's the worry. Most will be fine. Less severe than Delta it seems, but it still isn't very pleasant. Some won't be fine though - and a small proportion of a very large sum is still a huge number all at once which is where the concern lies. It isn't just about you or me getting it...it's about the next person and the next two people and the next three people and... Unlike many European countries, we are currently pursuing a 'wait and see' tactic - so let's wait and see. Make no mistake, the sole reason that we are though, is a consequence of BJs perceived damage to his 'cult of personality' and fear of a backbench rebellion. Possibly the only thing that it has actually averted is the inevitable mass meltdown that was gathering on this thread last night when some members realised they might not be able go to the pub any longer. 

 

What does amuse me, is those that incorrectly refer to the current vaccinations as 'experimental' have likely been routinely vaccinated before and are willing to take the chance against the possible long-term consequences of inevitable future variants that emerge containing mutations that we know absolutely **** all about. It may seem that way - but this is actually not a 'glorified cold'.

 

As I suggested last week from the Hong Kong study, infection in the lung from omicron is significantly lower than Delta, rather, it replicates in the bronchial tissue as astonishing speed, it could be that the respiratory cilia/mucosa play some part in infection which would suggest that it is steering itself in a more flu-like direction. It is quickly becoming the most dominant variant in the world - the adjusted mRNA vaccinations will be drive it down in spring. Fighting a virus is about containment - and where it is contained, it can then be eliminated. 

 

....Until the next variant materialises in another part of the world 

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Cultures in other parts of the world are very different to here when it comes to eating.

 

however, I’m sure someone can think of stuff we do in the west that is likely to lead to massive global health issues 

 

the over use of antibiotics for a start …….

Long term, antibiotic resistance will make the current pandemic look like a tea party, I mean, a cheese and wine party.

[Ric Flair]

What irks me at the minute is this never ending bombardment about the unvaccinated being the stain on society and a threat to the world and yet 22 months in to the pandemic there's never been a drive to remind people to exercise more, drink less and eat healthier. All of those things will be just as important to this as the vaccine but as we've seen the hypocrisy on what people are willing to discriminate over is no surprise. 

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Long term, antibiotic resistance will make the current pandemic look like a tea party, I mean, a cheese and wine party.

Not the only cloud on the horizon with regard to such things, either.

 

1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

What irks me at the minute is this never ending bombardment about the unvaccinated being the stain on society and a threat to the world and yet 22 months in to the pandemic there's never been a drive to remind people to exercise more, drink less and eat healthier. All of those things will be just as important to this as the vaccine but as we've seen the hypocrisy on what people are willing to discriminate over is no surprise. 

Possibly because one is rather easier in terms of human capability than the others.

[filbertway]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Possibly because one is rather easier in terms of human capability than the others.

The cynic in me suggests that it's about creating a division and diversion of attention

 

[Foxdiamond]

10 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

What irks me at the minute is this never ending bombardment about the unvaccinated being the stain on society and a threat to the world and yet 22 months in to the pandemic there's never been a drive to remind people to exercise more, drink less and eat healthier. All of those things will be just as important to this as the vaccine but as we've seen the hypocrisy on what people are willing to discriminate over is no surprise. 

There are many regular tv programmes and advice telling people to do eat healthy and exercise etc  stop smoking and the rest. Fact is some people won't be told whatever facts are out there. Most of us are guilty to a degree. For example drinking too much is seen as something us British are proud of. We are catching up the US in obesity. 

[SpacedX]

17 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

What irks me at the minute is this never ending bombardment about the unvaccinated being the stain on society and a threat to the world and yet 22 months in to the pandemic there's never been a drive to remind people to exercise more, drink less and eat healthier. All of those things will be just as important to this as the vaccine but as we've seen the hypocrisy on what people are willing to discriminate over is no surprise. 

There have been huge concerted efforts to encourage this. One of the major remits of PHE is to inform the public and to advocate healthier lifestyles. Have you not seen the TV and radio campaigns? There has been enormous investment in doing so for the last decade...because again, it is a ticking time bomb in terms of long-term health care - (in particular, obesity and diabetes and the associated comorbidities). The same public bodies, campaigns and third sector initiatives will also be advocating vaccination. No coincidence that PHE used to be called the Health Protection Agency. It's all part of the same mission. I would suggest that the message has become buried somewhat during the current global healthcare crisis - but it's still there. Again, why the attempt to polarise? Both are of tremendous importance. 

[grobyfox1990]

27 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

What irks me at the minute is this never ending bombardment about the unvaccinated being the stain on society and a threat to the world and yet 22 months in to the pandemic there's never been a drive to remind people to exercise more, drink less and eat healthier. All of those things will be just as important to this as the vaccine but as we've seen the hypocrisy on what people are willing to discriminate over is no surprise. 

Exactly. It’s so easy to exercise for 30 mins 5 times a week. Housework, going for a walk, running for the train. Likewise eating healthy is so cheap. Controlling alcohol intake should be a given. But no, telling people that would ‘against my human rights yeh!!!’ Pathetic 

[dsr-burnley]

37 minutes ago, Line-X said:

I had to read this three times, but yes, I think that's what I was getting at.

 

That's the worry. Most will be fine. Less severe than Delta it seems, but it still isn't very pleasant. Some won't be fine though - and a small proportion of a very large sum is still a huge number all at once which is where the concern lies. It isn't just about you or me getting it...it's about the next person and the next two people and the next three people and... Unlike many European countries, we are currently pursuing a 'wait and see' tactic - so let's wait and see. Make no mistake, the sole reason that we are though, is a consequence of BJs perceived damage to his 'cult of personality' and fear of a backbench rebellion. Possibly the only thing that it has actually averted is the inevitable mass meltdown that was gathering on this thread last night when some members realised they might not be able go to the pub any longer. 

 

What does amuse me, is those that incorrectly refer to the current vaccinations as 'experimental' have likely been routinely vaccinated before and are willing to take the chance against the possible long-term consequences of inevitable future variants that emerge containing mutations that we know absolutely **** all about. It may seem that way - but this is actually not a 'glorified cold'.

 

As I suggested last week from the Hong Kong study, infection in the lung from omicron is significantly lower than Delta, rather, it replicates in the bronchial tissue as astonishing speed, it could be that the respiratory cilia/mucosa play some part in infection which would suggest that it is steering itself in a more flu-like direction. It is quickly becoming the most dominant variant in the world - the adjusted mRNA vaccinations will be drive it down in spring. Fighting a virus is about containment - and where it is contained, it can then be eliminated. 

 

....Until the next variant materialises in another part of the world 

But the evidence of the last two years suggests that containment isn't working.  

 

What would lockdown achieve?  OK, we lock down for amonth and there is no extra pressure on the NHS in January.  Then what?  Has the virus been contained and eliminated, or will it surge in February?  I don't see any reason why it wouldn't surge when lockdown ended.  So we need to lockdown for another month.

 

That cures the surge in February.  But what happens in March?  Another surge - another lockdown - same old, same old.  

 

I think the long term plan, if lockdown is the answer, must be to lockdown every winter and open up (partially) in summer, before locking down again next winter.  And let the NHS continue as it is now, even though the medics are both overworked and unable to cope with the workload.  They have to find another way.  

 

Put the plans made in the last two years into operation in the short term.  Deal with the surge using the plans made in the past two years.And hopefully by the end of the surge, we will be more or less out the other side and can all - NHS included - start getting back to normal.