Coronavirus Thread

[Farrington fox]

Just watching Drakefords presser. All I can say, is I thank god I don’t live in Wales. 

[String fellow]

Just now, Farrington fox said:

Just watching Drakeford's presser. All I can say, is I thank god I don’t live in Wales. 

Michael Parkinson lookalike imo.

[CosbehFox]

14 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

All the virologists seemed to be very smug and I told you so about a new strain of Omicron found in Germany. Fingers crossed it doesn’t transpire. We’ve been here before 

Found it’s a contaminated sample yet we had Trisha and et al warning of Armageddon 

[CosbehFox]

The average sporting event in Wales does well to get 200 to 300, that’s being banned but indoor hospitality/shopping centres are remaining opening. I accept a lot of sporting events see congested travelling but that’s not really the case in rural Wales 
 

Some of the decision making is utterly terrible. 

[st albans fox]

NCID study shows 80% reduction of omicron leading to hospitalisations compared to delta. Risk of severe disease is 70% lower than delta.  

 

IF admitted to hospital then no difference in the likelihood of developing severe illness when compared to delta 

 

I’m sure that someone can look at delta infection rate and consequential hospitalisations and then work out how omicron will affect that based on that info if cases are daily twice the 7 day average delta rate at that time, three times and four times. Presumably the govt number crunchers are already doing this 

 

so the question is why are the Welsh/Scots doing what they are and downing st different ?  They must have the same data to look at ??

 

drakeford seems to be always on the front foot - probably too much. Sturgeon a little less so. 

[VLC86]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

NCID study shows 80% reduction of omicron leading to hospitalisations compared to delta. Risk of severe disease is 70% lower than delta.  

 

IF admitted to hospital then no difference in the likelihood of developing severe illness when compared to delta 

 

I’m sure that someone can look at delta infection rate and consequential hospitalisations and then work out how omicron will affect that based on that info if cases are daily twice the 7 day average delta rate at that time, three times and four times. Presumably the govt number crunchers are already doing this 

 

so the question is why are the Welsh/Scots doing what they are and downing st different ?  They must have the same data to look at ??

 

drakeford seems to be always on the front foot - probably too much. Sturgeon a little less so. 

Scared to make a decision is my guess.

[GingerrrFox]

3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

NCID study shows 80% reduction of omicron leading to hospitalisations compared to delta. Risk of severe disease is 70% lower than delta.  

 

IF admitted to hospital then no difference in the likelihood of developing severe illness when compared to delta 

 

I’m sure that someone can look at delta infection rate and consequential hospitalisations and then work out how omicron will affect that based on that info if cases are daily twice the 7 day average delta rate at that time, three times and four times. Presumably the govt number crunchers are already doing this 

 

so the question is why are the Welsh/Scots doing what they are and downing st different ?  They must have the same data to look at ??

 

drakeford seems to be always on the front foot - probably too much. Sturgeon a little less so. 

Because Labour are a shoe in for the Welsh Assembly and the SNP are a shoe in for the Scottish equivalent. Boris is clinging on by his finger nails. 

[Legend_in_blue]

28 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

Just watching Drakefords presser. All I can say, is I thank god I don’t live in Wales. 

He doesn't look at his own data.  If he did, he would realise that his circuit breaker last October did nothing of note.  What is likely to change this time round?

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Anyone got any advise on how to cope with the total loss of taste and smell? Anything you could taste, or things that didn't taste like sewage? Mouth seems to be getting really dry all the time, anything help that? 

[Farrington fox]

52 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Michael Parkinson lookalike imo.

That's an insult to Parky 

[UniFox21]

27 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

He doesn't look at his own data.  If he did, he would realise that his circuit breaker last October did nothing of note.  What is likely to change this time round?

If he did, would it mean actually anything to him? Why try to half understand and manipulate it yourself, when we have actual specialists in the field who can and advise? 

[danny.]

6 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Have cases even doubled at all?  It's not looking great for these people.  No wonder they are requesting further restrictions right now, it would make their projections have greater weight.

Can someone explain why the predictions are actually correct. When people say on here that Ferguson is always way out, some  people always say he's not - but when I see data like this it just looks like he is, time and time again.

 

Genuine question. 

[VLC86]

35 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Anyone got any advise on how to cope with the total loss of taste and smell? Anything you could taste, or things that didn't taste like sewage? Mouth seems to be getting really dry all the time, anything help that? 

Trying my best not to take the piss but drinking water and staying hydrated is the only way to avoid a dry mouth.

 

Re taste and smell, everyone is different. My advice would be to try to regularly sniff strong smells (spices, lemon, eucalyptus) and hope it comes back. I’m nearly 6 months post covid and recon I’ve got about 20% smell back.

 

When did you have covid?

[Buce]

2 hours ago, Farrington fox said:

Just watching Drakefords presser. All I can say, is I thank god I don’t live in Wales. 

 

I imagine the Welsh are overjoyed with the arrangement...

Edited 22 December 2021 by Buce

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, danny. said:

Can someone explain why the predictions are actually correct. When people say on here that Ferguson is always way out, some  people always say he's not - but when I see data like this it just looks like he is, time and time again.

 

Genuine question. 

Before this question in answered, a question in return.

 

Out compared to who, and what track record do they have? Genuine question.

 

The post you quoted was just another example of a poster with a track record of doing so offering criticism without the "constructive" part.

[danny.]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Before this question in answered, a question in return.

 

Out compared to who, and what track record do they have? Genuine question.

 

The post you quoted was just another example of a poster with a track record of doing so offering criticism without the "constructive" part.

I'm on my phone and making a sandwich so sorry for no sources! But, not who - out from reality. He predicts a large number, and it's like 5% of that. 

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/08/omicron-cases-could-exceed-1m-by-month-end-sajid-javid

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-15-december-2021/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-15-december-2021

 

One is the Health Secretary making a statement ot the House of Commons, the other is a SAGE official report.  Both predict a million cases based on the UK being under the current restrictions, which were introduced on 8th December.  SAGE goes further - it predicts 600,000 to 2 million cases per day by late December to January.

I’m pretty sure that epidemiological models are a guide to the underlying rate of infections, not the headline rate as reported in Worldometer, etc. Happy to be corrected if someone knows different. But many infections will never be reported, because not everybody with symptoms will get tested, and many others will be asymptomatic and have no reason to test, particularly with Omicron. I’m sure I read recently that there are likely to be about 4 times as many actual infections as the headline case rate, though I can’t find an authoritative link at present.

 

Anyway, if that is the case, the underlying rate may be close to the figures quoted. I’m not defending the way these stats are being used, as I’m sure there’s plenty of mushroom management going on, but the epidemiological models will be far more sophisticated than simply assuming a doubling rate and projecting to the end of the month, which was the point I was originally trying to make.

 

Finally, reading a bit of the second link, they acknowledge that the model is a work in progress, does not account for changes in people’s behaviour, etc, etc.

Edited 22 December 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

30 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Trying my best not to take the piss but drinking water and staying hydrated is the only way to avoid a dry mouth.

 

Re taste and smell, everyone is different. My advice would be to try to regularly sniff strong smells (spices, lemon, eucalyptus) and hope it comes back. I’m nearly 6 months post covid and recon I’ve got about 20% smell back.

 

When did you have covid?

Got it now, awaiting pcr but was positive today on my lateral flow again after being positive yesterday. Obviously water but my mouth is getting dryer a lot quicker than normal so wondered if there was anything strange that worked for someone else. 

[VLC86]

1 minute ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Got it now, awaiting pcr but was positive today on my lateral flow again after being positive yesterday. Obviously water but my mouth is getting dryer a lot quicker than normal so wondered if there was anything strange that worked for someone else. 

Recon it’s just more water needed mate.

[leicsmac]

23 minutes ago, danny. said:

I'm on my phone and making a sandwich so sorry for no sources! But, not who - out from reality. He predicts a large number, and it's like 5% of that. 

Right...so assuming that's true, who has a better track record at analysing what's going on here?

 

That's the point I'm making - people are happy to throw stones at the scientific method (which is what Ferguson and co are using) and the many conclusions and projections it can draw about the future but they tend to be a bit stumped when suggesting something better.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Anyone got any advise on how to cope with the total loss of taste and smell? Anything you could taste, or things that didn't taste like sewage? Mouth seems to be getting really dry all the time, anything help that? 

Apples in the fridge worked for me, cold, crispy and refreshing and a hint of sweetness.

[danny.]

23 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Right...so assuming that's true, who has a better track record at analysing what's going on here?

 

That's the point I'm making - people are happy to throw stones at the scientific method (which is what Ferguson and co are using) and the many conclusions and projections it can draw about the future but they tend to be a bit stumped when suggesting something better.

He doesn't use the scientific method does he (observe, hypothesise, test, analyse)? He uses computer models - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y 

 

It was a genuine question BTW, it wasn't a dig or any agenda

[Farrington fox]

Looks like Germans will be drawing on their Pfizer loyalty cards again! Roll up roll up for your 4th shot. 
 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, danny. said:

He doesn't use the scientific method does he (observe, hypothesise, test, analyse)? He uses computer models - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y 

 

It was a genuine question BTW, it wasn't a dig or any agenda

I know it, I'm chewing the fat here and this is more addressed towards others than yourself.

 

Computer modelling is a form of empiricism - it's used for stuff like space observation analysis all the time.

[danny.]

Just now, leicsmac said:

I know it, I'm chewing the fat here and this is more addressed towards others than yourself.

 

Computer modelling is a form of empiricism - it's used for stuff like space observation analysis all the time.

Wasn't his code terrible? IIRC someone asked to review it and he rewrote a load of it before then releasing. I think he said something like he's a scientist not a coder, but that didn't fill me with much confidence in the quality of the simulation is the coding was sucky. (My day job is coding, and usually crappy code in = crappy out). I'd have thought for a simulation to be part of the scientific method it needs to be rock solid.