Coronavirus Thread

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, danny. said:

Wasn't his code terrible? IIRC someone asked to review it and he rewrote a load of it before then releasing. I think he said something like he's a scientist not a coder, but that didn't fill me with much confidence in the quality of the simulation is the coding was sucky. (My day job is coding, and usually crappy code in = crappy out). I'd have thought for a simulation to be part of the scientific method it needs to be rock solid.

You should have seen what I came up with for my undergrad thesis

 

But broadly speaking, yeah - at the very least the code should have been checked by someone else beforehand or maybe even written by someone else in the first place if it was that bad - working as a team and having your results verified by a team is what good science is all about.

[WigstonWanderer]

14 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

You should have seen what I came up with for my undergrad thesis

 

But broadly speaking, yeah - at the very least the code should have been checked by someone else beforehand or maybe even written by someone else in the first place if it was that bad - working as a team and having your results verified by a team is what good science is all about.

My guess is that models that attempt to provide guidance for policy in real time simply don’t have time for proper peer review. The whole science seems to be more like economics than say physics, so models are likely to have wide ranging estimates of possible outcomes, with experts often disagreeing. Despite all that it’s the best we have, and certainly better than self appointed experts on a football forum.

[Otis]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

so the question is why are the Welsh/Scots doing what they are and downing st different ?  They must have the same data to look at ??

 

Because they can. No other reason, just a power trip.

[Corky]

3 hours ago, Farrington fox said:

So in Wales you can be fined £60 for going to work from your office. But take your laptop to the pub and sit there working with a pint and it's fine. You cannot make up this nonsense. Only idiots like Drakeford and Sturgeon could dream up these kind of rules.

 

Yes, don't get that at all. Complete overkill. People shouldn't be shamed for going to work.

[oxford blue]

2 hours ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Anyone got any advise on how to cope with the total loss of taste and smell? Anything you could taste, or things that didn't taste like sewage? Mouth seems to be getting really dry all the time, anything help that? 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-and-loss-of-taste#how-to-cope

 

I remember listening to Inside Health on R4 many months ago - above article incorporates all advice given, so I hope this helps you regarding taste/smell. 

[Nalis]

100,000 cases, you'll never sing that

[The Horse's Mouth]

So it looks like even Australia are calming down their mental restrictions because of how positive the Omicron variant is now, very interesting and a real cause to be optimistic 

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Apples in the fridge worked for me, cold, crispy and refreshing and a hint of sweetness.

Might be good for the apple and the fridge, but what about his mouth?! 

[MPH]

4 hours ago, st albans fox said:

NCID study shows 80% reduction of omicron leading to hospitalisations compared to delta. Risk of severe disease is 70% lower than delta.  

 

IF admitted to hospital then no difference in the likelihood of developing severe illness when compared to delta 

 

I’m sure that someone can look at delta infection rate and consequential hospitalisations and then work out how omicron will affect that based on that info if cases are daily twice the 7 day average delta rate at that time, three times and four times. Presumably the govt number crunchers are already doing this 

 

so the question is why are the Welsh/Scots doing what they are and downing st different ?  They must have the same data to look at ??

 

drakeford seems to be always on the front foot - probably too much. Sturgeon a little less so. 

 

if i remember  correctly the recent Scottish study on Omicron hasn’t included as many over 65s who are of course the main vulnerable groups.

 

 

 

but anyway, I think everyone knows that there’s a chance you’ll have much milder symptoms with omicron but it’s looking like it’s much more highly effective so there is still one main concern.

 

 

and that is, to explain it simply, say you get 10,000 cases of covid you might get 100 hospitalizations. Total guess at the number there… but omicron is more virulent  and nightly infectious so you might in a similar geographical area get 50,000 cases and that, although on a case by case basis omicron can be milder , that could bump the hospital numbers up to higher  than the Delta levels.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Might be good for the apple and the fridge, but what about his mouth?! 

Mouth watering 🍏 perfect 

[Dahnsouff]

21 minutes ago, GingerrrFox said:

What numbers are currently available?

The Yellow Card reporting scheme has reported that between 9 December 2020 and 8 September 2021 there were 1,645 deaths where the person died shortly after receiving one of the coronavirus vaccines.
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/amp/

 

That’s up to September.

 

You can read up on the full yellow card updates here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

 

 

Thank you, but the pertinent article in the first link

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021
 

reads like a cheerleader for the vaccine, people receiving the vaccine earlier were always more likely to die because for them be called earlier they would have needed to be vulnerable or elderly. The table 1 in that link is extremely supportive of vaccines, and perhaps I am mistaken, but I fail to grasp any concern exhibited in this article

[reynard]

8 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

If we go into lockdown again he knows he’s finished as PM, guiding us through this tricky situation and avoiding lockdown is probably his only way of gaining some public support, high stakes indeed. 

Hmm. Public safety versus Boris's political career. Tough choice of course.

[reynard]

17 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

Excuse my stupidity, but I know this variant is more transmissible than other variants, but what does that mean? How do I catch it easier? Does it mean that if someone breathes over me, I’m more likely to pick it up? Does it stay on surfaces longer? Does it travel further in the air? Is standing 2ms away with mask not good enough? 
 

How do I limit my risk in catching in when I do the weekly shop in a supermarket? I have always worn a mask, is this good enough? If I unknowingly have it how do I stop/limit spreading it? I do regular LFT test anyway 2-3 days a week for work and my own comfort as I have been round vulnerable people 

I'd pretend to be doing a trolley dash for charity if I were you.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

 

and that is, to explain it simply, say you get 10,000 cases of covid you might get 100 hospitalizations. Total guess at the number there… but omicron is more virulent  and nightly infectious so you might in a similar geographical area get 50,000 cases and that, although on a case by case basis omicron can be milder , that could bump the hospital numbers up to higher  than the Delta levels.

Pedantically it’s less virulent - unfortunately we have to dot the i’s and cross the t’s 

[Legend_in_blue]

Anyone with experience of the Moderna booster on here at all?  Had that booster today, so far no problems.  Not even a sore arm this time round

 

[Zear0]

5 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Anyone with experience of the Moderna booster on here at all?  Had that booster today, so far no problems.  Not even a sore arm this time round

 

I felt as if I were drunk on the first day. Days 2 and 3 I felt fine but I couldn't lift my arm above my shoulder. Let's hope it stays as is for you! 

[fox_favourite]

1 hour ago, reynard said:

I'd pretend to be doing a trolley dash for charity if I were you.

Supermarket Sweep style…that’s the norm for me. Just people always in the way 

[reynard]

Just now, fox_favourite said:

Supermarket Sweep style…that’s the norm for me. Just people always in the way 

Not if you pretend to start coughing.

[Nalis]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Anyone with experience of the Moderna booster on here at all?  Had that booster today, so far no problems.  Not even a sore arm this time round

 

Day 1 was ok, felt like crap on Day 2. Reactions have been so varied from people I've spoken to.

[rachhere]

4 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Anyone with experience of the Moderna booster on here at all?  Had that booster today, so far no problems.  Not even a sore arm this time round

 

I wasn’t too bad the first day - no aching arm or anything, but towards the end of the day I got quite tired. Days two and three I felt ROUGH! Aching muscles, no energy to do anything, minimal appetite and a metallic taste in my mouth. It’s now day 5 and I still am really tired, but that could be more of an end of term thing. 

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, MPH said:

 

if i remember  correctly the recent Scottish study on Omicron hasn’t included as many over 65s who are of course the main vulnerable groups.

 

 

 

but anyway, I think everyone knows that there’s a chance you’ll have much milder symptoms with omicron but it’s looking like it’s much more highly effective so there is still one main concern.

 

 

and that is, to explain it simply, say you get 10,000 cases of covid you might get 100 hospitalizations. Total guess at the number there… but omicron is more virulent  and nightly infectious so you might in a similar geographical area get 50,000 cases and that, although on a case by case basis omicron can be milder , that could bump the hospital numbers up to higher  than the Delta levels.

We need to remember that just because it spreads faster does not necessarily mean that more people will get it.  It might mean that the same number of people get it but in a shorter time.  Or something in between.  I've seen very little about why this virus or any other seem to affect some people and not others - even people in the same house can survive unscathed while their bedmate is seriously ill, and that was true for smallpox and other deadly diseases as well.  But there is no need to assume that a disease that spreads five times as fast, will affect five times as many people in the same time.

[MPH]

14 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

We need to remember that just because it spreads faster does not necessarily mean that more people will get it.  It might mean that the same number of people get it but in a shorter time.  Or something in between.  I've seen very little about why this virus or any other seem to affect some people and not others - even people in the same house can survive unscathed while their bedmate is seriously ill, and that was true for smallpox and other deadly diseases as well.  But there is no need to assume that a disease that spreads five times as fast, will affect five times as many people in the same time.

 

this part makes absolutely no sense.

 

are you suggesting that once it reaches a set amount of people it just suddenly stops transmitting?

[yorkie1999]

5 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Anyone with experience of the Moderna booster on here at all?  Had that booster today, so far no problems.  Not even a sore arm this time round

 

First day was fine, second day felt a bit shaky, third day, different kettle of fish, explosive diarrhoea and swollen testicles.  Hopefully you’ll be ok.

[dsr-burnley]

52 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

this part makes absolutely no sense.

 

are you suggesting that once it reaches a set amount of people it just suddenly stops transmitting?

No.  I'm suggesting that once it has infected all or most of the people that it can infect, then it stops infecting.  (Or at least, very much slows down.)

 

No virus infects everyone in the country.  Spanish flu didn't, ordinary flu doesn't, colds don't, coronavirus (in any variant) hasn't.  I don't think anyone knows why a man and his daughter can be infected while his wife and son are not, but it happens.  

 

Just because delta variant infected (random number) 20 million people in this country does not mean that a variant that travels five times faster will infect 100 million people.  Obviously.  And if delta infected 10 million it doesn't mean a variant travelling five times faster will infect 50 million.  Viruses don't necessarily work that way.

[MPH]

27 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

No.  I'm suggesting that once it has infected all or most of the people that it can infect, then it stops infecting.  (Or at least, very much slows down.)

 

No virus infects everyone in the country.  Spanish flu didn't, ordinary flu doesn't, colds don't, coronavirus (in any variant) hasn't.  I don't think anyone knows why a man and his daughter can be infected while his wife and son are not, but it happens.  

 

Just because delta variant infected (random number) 20 million people in this country does not mean that a variant that travels five times faster will infect 100 million people.  Obviously.  And if delta infected 10 million it doesn't mean a variant travelling five times faster will infect 50 million.  Viruses don't necessarily work that way.

 

There’s people who are catching covid more than once… it’s possible that it’s similar to the flu virus in so much that you can become immune to a certain strain or even have a ‘ decent’ immune system  from catching it but after a while your immune system ‘ dies down’ again.

 

 

with the way it mutates, there’s  evey possibility there is a strain either now or on the way that could infect far more people that we even know… the only reason we can put a number on the amount of people with covid is because of the number of people who have been tested… if someone isn’t showing symptoms then that doesn’t mean they haven’t got covid or can’t pass it on to someone, it just means they are not symptomatic and won’t be tested. Several of the Drs I work with all day similar things- the amount of positive covid cases numbers we currently see might  only be a percentage of how many positive cases we currently have. 
 

no one is immune from catching Covid. 

Edited 23 December 2021 by MPH