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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, danny. said:

I see your point, but if it’s completely wrong it suggests his model must not work. If that’s so, is it even following the scientific method? Carrying out simulations on a broken model doesn’t seem of much use.
 

 

It suggests that the model needs to be adjusted, not that the model itself and (more importantly) the methodology behind it are not fit for purpose. There's an important distinction that people need to make there.

 

1 hour ago, danny. said:

Not being able to suggest anything better feels like a fallacy. Like when religious people claim god/angels/ghosts did something and then say it’s true because no one else can explain it. 
 

 

There may well be a name for it among the fallacies, yes - I wouldn't be sure which one it would be. However, I think it's logical to consider that if someone is going to criticise something then their criticism is only meaningful if they might suggest something better - and it's different to the religious "God of the Gaps" argument from ignorance fallacy which you might be referring to here.

 

1 hour ago, danny. said:

 

I don’t think it’s just moaning either. Maybe from some people - but if you’re trying to run a business, then this is affecting policy, and if it’s wrong this can mean people’s livelihoods ruined for not good reason. It’s been hard enough for many industries since 2020 without more lockdowns if they aren’t needed. 

Yes, it is affecting policy - but with all respect to the aforementioned business-runners, what's best for them individually might not be what's best for the populace as a whole, and if they have evidence to the contrary, they should present it. I agree that more lockdowns are probably unnecessary, but that's because of the data that is being received in the early days of Omicron, not out of sentiment. Of course policymaking has to consider the wishes of the voter base as a priority, but the simple truth is that we're dealing with a virus that expresses zero sentiment of its own (beyond survival) and, if necessary, the response to it must be the same.

 

To add, I guess I feel a bit frustrated at a pattern I have seen not only since Covid began, but also before that involving what I might call the "death of trust in scientific expertise". It's been seen with climate change and it's prevalent here too - the idea that all opinions, and thus policy based on those opinions, are equal in terms of consideration and merit when it comes to matters of science, and that "expert" analysed opinion is no more trustworthy than someone with a slick manner and a YouTube video, examples of which exist on this very thread. Not only do I think this is wrong because of the field I share most affinity with, but practically I think it's possibly the single biggest threat facing human future as we could run head-first into a problem that nature throws at us, with truly dire consequences simply because enough people "believe" or are convinced by the weight of theirs or others opinions that it isn't a problem. Covid, for the five million lives around the world it has taken thus far, has actually been reasonably forgiving of a disjointed response where people could "sit out" or not believe as they wished. Future events might not be so forgiving of that very human failing. 

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Carl the Llama

Carl the Llama

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Line-X said:

I spotted this game yesterday in WH Smith. Popular one for all the family at Christmas then, or perhaps kill some dark winter evenings during a New Year lockdown?

 

 IMG_20211223_143101339.jpg.bcdbb05d86bb537c85a98d092adfea52.jpg

 

Imagine wrapping this for someone on Christmas day? Can't imagine a better way to guarantee a board shoved up your arse sideways. 

Genuinely great board game that

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Too much common sense being spoken here.

 

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

It suggests that the model needs to be adjusted, not that the model itself and (more importantly) the methodology behind it are not fit for purpose. There's an important distinction that people need to make there.

 

There may well be a name for it among the fallacies, yes - I wouldn't be sure which one it would be. However, I think it's logical to consider that if someone is going to criticise something then their criticism is only meaningful if they might suggest something better - and it's different to the religious "God of the Gaps" argument from ignorance fallacy which you might be referring to here.

 

Yes, it is affecting policy - but with all respect to the aforementioned business-runners, what's best for them individually might not be what's best for the populace as a whole, and if they have evidence to the contrary, they should present it. I agree that more lockdowns are probably unnecessary, but that's because of the data that is being received in the early days of Omicron, not out of sentiment. Of course policymaking has to consider the wishes of the voter base as a priority, but the simple truth is that we're dealing with a virus that expresses zero sentiment of its own (beyond survival) and, if necessary, the response to it must be the same.

 

To add, I guess I feel a bit frustrated at a pattern I have seen not only since Covid began, but also before that involving what I might call the "death of trust in scientific expertise". It's been seen with climate change and it's prevalent here too - the idea that all opinions, and thus policy based on those opinions, are equal in terms of consideration and merit when it comes to matters of science, and that "expert" analysed opinion is no more trustworthy than someone with a slick manner and a YouTube video, examples of which exist on this very thread. Not only do I think this is wrong because of the field I share most affinity with, but practically I think it's possibly the single biggest threat facing human future as we could run head-first into a problem that nature throws at us, with truly dire consequences simply because enough people "believe" or are convinced by the weight of theirs or others opinions that it isn't a problem. Covid, for the five million lives around the world it has taken thus far, has actually been reasonably forgiving of a disjointed response where people could "sit out" or not believe as they wished. Future events might not be so forgiving of that very human failing. 

Thank you for the additional example.

 

And no, the word of a single doctor, or even a group of them, means nothing in a scientific context (and therefore in matters of addressing policy of which science is a significant matter) without peer review and the backing of those peers.

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FoxesDeb

FoxesDeb

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In the spirit of Christmas, merry Christmas @I am Rod Hulland to everyone else on this thread. Let's hope next year brings us back to the normality we are all hoping for. 

 

Special shout outs here to @Line-Xfor all his information, science, patience and solidarity, @leicsmacfor his unbiased opinions, science and patience, @HighPeakFoxfor his moral support, and @z-layrexfor his tireless work. 

 

We're all on the same side here, something we all, me included, need to remember sometimes. 

 

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z-layrex

z-layrex

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3 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

In the spirit of Christmas, merry Christmas @I am Rod Hulland to everyone else on this thread. Let's hope next year brings us back to the normality we are all hoping for. 

 

Special shout outs here to @Line-Xfor all his information, science, patience and solidarity, @leicsmacfor his unbiased opinions, science and patience, @HighPeakFoxfor his moral support, and @z-layrexfor his tireless work. 

 

We're all on the same side here, something we all, me included, need to remember sometimes. 

 

Merry Christmas to you too, hope you can enjoy with your friends and family.

 

If anyone would like good news, I have not seen my icu this quiet in years.

Edited by z-layrex
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Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Izzy said:

Daughters PCR came back positive so no seeing her Grandparents, Aunties/Uncles or cousins over Xmas.

 

Bit of a pisser really :(

That sucks, i hope she is fine and has an easy/fast recovery!

 

If it's any consolation, as you know today is my birthday and seeing as my wife has been exposed I can't see my brothers, family, nephews, inlaws (dodged a bullet) or my dad (who isn't well) for today and tomorrow. Boooooooo...

 

Guess it softens the blow given I'm not a youngin anymore. I do miss my two nephews though. One is 1.5 months old and the other is 16 months. As you can gather i havent seen them much during this pandemic :(

 

As I said to my wife, just enjoy what we have as a family and be thankful no matter what.  This is 2021, not 1985 when we didn't have ipads, zoom meetings to at least see them virtually  etc.  I know  this is not the same but better than nothing.

 

In due time we will get back to normalcy. Keep on keepin on folk and Merry Christmas to you all. For those who don't celebrate,   p1ss off! ...jokingggg! I hope those who don't celebrate enjoy the holiday season doing whatever makes you happy in these covid times.

 

When we get through this i hope to get across the pond at some point and meet some of you in person at a city game. You can laugh at my Canadian accent as i yell like a tw@t feeding into the narratives that yanks are annoying (even though i am not a yank). Lol

 

 

Keep safe

 

 

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kyleolly

kyleolly

Posted
Posted

 

5 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

In the spirit of Christmas, merry Christmas @I am Rod Hulland to everyone else on this thread. Let's hope next year brings us back to the normality we are all hoping for. 

 

Special shout outs here to @Line-Xfor all his information, science, patience and solidarity, @leicsmacfor his unbiased opinions, science and patience, @HighPeakFoxfor his moral support, and @z-layrexfor his tireless work. 

 

We're all on the same side here, something we all, me included, need to remember sometimes. 

 

Absolutely merry Christmas 🥳

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
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8 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

In the spirit of Christmas, merry Christmas @I am Rod Hulland to everyone else on this thread. Let's hope next year brings us back to the normality we are all hoping for. 

 

Special shout outs here to @Line-Xfor all his information, science, patience and solidarity, @leicsmacfor his unbiased opinions, science and patience, @HighPeakFoxfor his moral support, and @z-layrexfor his tireless work. 

 

We're all on the same side here, something we all, me included, need to remember sometimes. 

 

Thank you, Debs.

 

The bolded has been my point all along, really. The virus is the opposition here, and the less unity we show, the easier it will be for it to make our lives a misery. Together, we can beat the thing, as we have done with other natural hazards in the past.

 

Merry Christmas to you.

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Hollyfox

Hollyfox

Posted
Posted

Tested positive this morning, thought I'd better do a test before I went to my sister in laws, so thankfully have stayed clear of them and some elderly people that were going there. 

Now missing Tuesday (which might not be a bad thing 😄) and had booked the week off work. 

 

Not sure if I can claim the time back if I've got proof of a positive result. 

 

Double jabbed and had Covid in November, so thought I was quite immune. 

 

Just a running nose and the odd sneeze, feel OK but proper pissed off. 

 

I'm sure a win at Man City, tomorrow, will cheer me up😄

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