Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

10 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Since there are no case number counts until Monday, I reckon we should hold a "guess the number of cases to be announced on Monday" quiz.  Closest to the actual figure wins!

 

I'll go first: 324 561 

 

Any takers? 

 

Merry Christmas!

Your mate Ferguson has arranged it so you won’t be able to post his graph on here ……

 

11 hours ago, Hollyfox said:

Tested positive this morning, thought I'd better do a test before I went to my sister in laws, so thankfully have stayed clear of them and some elderly people that were going there. 

Now missing Tuesday (which might not be a bad thing 😄) and had booked the week off work. 

 

Not sure if I can claim the time back if I've got proof of a positive result. 

 

Double jabbed and had Covid in November, so thought I was quite immune. 

 

Just a running nose and the odd sneeze, feel OK but proper pissed off. 

 

I'm sure a win at Man City, tomorrow, will cheer me up😄

That’s concerning…..I guess the figures say that 1 in 4 after a booster will still show symptoms of omicron (your infection in November would be equivalent to a booster). But the hope would be that those who had contracted covid would be less likely to be part of the 25%.  

 

[Farrington fox]

According to the Telegraph. Harries has been caught manipulating the figures to strengthen the case for locking down. Luckily the dodgy data was spotted. 

[Farrington fox]

11 hours ago, Hollyfox said:

Tested positive this morning, thought I'd better do a test before I went to my sister in laws, so thankfully have stayed clear of them and some elderly people that were going there. 

Now missing Tuesday (which might not be a bad thing 😄) and had booked the week off work. 

 

Not sure if I can claim the time back if I've got proof of a positive result. 

 

Double jabbed and had Covid in November, so thought I was quite immune. 

 

Just a running nose and the odd sneeze, feel OK but proper pissed off. 

 

I'm sure a win at Man City, tomorrow, will cheer me up😄

You sure it’s not a cold!

[Legend_in_blue]

5 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

According to the Telegraph. Harries has been caught manipulating the figures to strengthen the case for locking down. Luckily the dodgy data was spotted. 

The house of cards is beginning to tumble now.  Good stuff.

[weller54]

11 hours ago, Hollyfox said:

Tested positive this morning, thought I'd better do a test before I went to my sister in laws, so thankfully have stayed clear of them and some elderly people that were going there. 

Now missing Tuesday (which might not be a bad thing 😄) and had booked the week off work. 

 

Not sure if I can claim the time back if I've got proof of a positive result. 

 

Double jabbed and had Covid in November, so thought I was quite immune. 

 

Just a running nose and the odd sneeze, feel OK but proper pissed off. 

 

I'm sure a win at Man City, tomorrow, will cheer me up😄

You've obviously got a very high temperature and are delusional?😂

[CosbehFox]

13 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

According to the Telegraph. Harries has been caught manipulating the figures to strengthen the case for locking down. Luckily the dodgy data was spotted. 

Less manipulating the figures, more claiming it’s a 17 day lag from catching the virus to hospitalisation when it’s believed it’s more towards 10 day lag. 
 

Sadly we’ve had a climb in hospitalisations in the last 48 hours 

[Guest ttfn]

I tested positive on Christmas Eve - slightly complicated in my case as I am currently on holiday in Dubai and was due to fly back today.

I’m now stuck in a hotel room for the next week or so. My family has gone back to the UK as they all tested negative and weren’t deemed close contacts, so it’s going to be a long few days.

 

Any long reads or quizzes welcome!

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Less manipulating the figures, more claiming it’s a 17 day lag from catching the virus to hospitalisation when it’s believed it’s more towards 10 day lag. 
 

Sadly we’ve had a climb in hospitalisations in the last 48 hours 

My father in law who is a retired medic is pretty laid back but he has a strong disdain for harries ….

 

and we will inevitably have a rise in hospitalisations- just gotta hope it’s manageable. 

Edited 26 December 2021 by st albans fox

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, ttfn said:

I tested positive on Christmas Eve - slightly complicated in my case as I am currently on holiday in Dubai and was due to fly back today.

I’m now stuck in a hotel room for the next week or so. My family has gone back to the UK as they all tested negative and weren’t deemed close contacts, so it’s going to be a long few days.

 

Any long reads or quizzes welcome!

You’re in Dubai so very fortunate to be able to watch the game live today ……… that will certainly be tougher than a week in isolation! 

[Guest ttfn]

Just now, st albans fox said:

You’re in Dubai so very fortunate to be able to watch the game live today ……… that will certainly be tougher than a week in isolation! 

Unfortunately they don’t have Bein Sports in the room so I am in the same boat as everyone else.

[st albans fox]

Just now, ttfn said:

fortunately they don’t have Bein Sports in the room so I am in the same boat as everyone else.

Changed that for you !

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

My father in law who is a retired medic is pretty laid back but he has a strong disdain for harries ….

 

and we will inevitably have a rise in hospitalisations- just gotta hope it’s manageable. 

It's inevitable that there will be a rise in hospitalisations, simply by random numbers.  In the same way as why the number of people with tattoos who are hospitalised now is way higher than it used to be, not because tattoos put people in hospital, but because there are simply more people have tattoos.  The statisticians' job, in conjunction with medical people, is to establish and to publish how many of these coronavirus cases are because of coroanvirus and how many is coronavirus not a factor.

 

Unfortunately I doubt we will see it published.

 

Here's my take.  We have data complete up to 20th December.  In week ended 20th December, 6,581 people were admitted to hospital with coronavirus, compared with 6,080 the week before.  In that week, there were 661,990 new cases compared with 394,890 the week before.  That means the number of admissions to hospital was up by 501, the number of new cases was up by 267,100.

 

For the numbers of people in hospital because coronavirus may ill, we can't usefully use these numbers because there is a delay before the effects of infection work through.  But in terms of estimating numbers of people admitted to hospital where coronavirus wasn;'t a factor, these are the figures to use.  And - ignoring all aspects of age analysis because I don't have the figures - 267,100 is 0.4% of the population, or one in 250 people.  That's the increase in cases week-on-week.  And by extension, we would expect the purely random element of covid admissions week-on-week to increase by 0.4%.  Approx 100,000 people admitted to hospital each week; so we would expect 400 extra cases per week.

 

So using ballpark figures, of the hospital admissions increase of 500, 400 of them were purely random, and 100 related to the increase in cases during  the week or 10 days before that period.  

[Hollyfox]

4 hours ago, Farrington fox said:

You sure it’s not a cold!

Basically it just felt like a cold. 

Runny nose yesterday morning, made me do a test, which went positive straight away. 

Did a PCR this morning and awaiting result. 

Did a lateral flow a while ago, without yesterday's symptoms and it was a very faint line, which took a whole to show. 

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

Why are govt now wasting money sending a booster txt to presumably most phones in the UK?  I don't need the message thanks - and I'm sure neither does anyone else!

 

 

 

 

[grobyfox1990]

10 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Why are govt now wasting money sending a booster txt to presumably most phones in the UK?  I don't need the message thanks - and I'm sure neither does anyone else!

 

 

 

 

I got one too. I thought it was a spam text and reported it to ofcom at 7726. 

[Soar Fox]

16 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Why are govt now wasting money sending a booster txt to presumably most phones in the UK?  I don't need the message thanks - and I'm sure neither does anyone else!

 

 

 

 

My In-laws have just been round our house and the mil just received a text saying get your booster now…. She had her booster on the 4th December. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

4 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

It's inevitable that there will be a rise in hospitalisations, simply by random numbers.  In the same way as why the number of people with tattoos who are hospitalised now is way higher than it used to be, not because tattoos put people in hospital, but because there are simply more people have tattoos.  The statisticians' job, in conjunction with medical people, is to establish and to publish how many of these coronavirus cases are because of coroanvirus and how many is coronavirus not a factor.

 

Unfortunately I doubt we will see it published.

 

Here's my take.  We have data complete up to 20th December.  In week ended 20th December, 6,581 people were admitted to hospital with coronavirus, compared with 6,080 the week before.  In that week, there were 661,990 new cases compared with 394,890 the week before.  That means the number of admissions to hospital was up by 501, the number of new cases was up by 267,100.

 

For the numbers of people in hospital because coronavirus may ill, we can't usefully use these numbers because there is a delay before the effects of infection work through.  But in terms of estimating numbers of people admitted to hospital where coronavirus wasn;'t a factor, these are the figures to use.  And - ignoring all aspects of age analysis because I don't have the figures - 267,100 is 0.4% of the population, or one in 250 people.  That's the increase in cases week-on-week.  And by extension, we would expect the purely random element of covid admissions week-on-week to increase by 0.4%.  Approx 100,000 people admitted to hospital each week; so we would expect 400 extra cases per week.

 

So using ballpark figures, of the hospital admissions increase of 500, 400 of them were purely random, and 100 related to the increase in cases during  the week or 10 days before that period.  

So how many weekly cases would it take to get hospitalisations back to last winter's levels? 

[Babylon]

30 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Why are govt now wasting money sending a booster txt to presumably most phones in the UK?  I don't need the message thanks - and I'm sure neither does anyone else!

 

 

 

 

Checked with everyone have you?

[Legend_in_blue]

2 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Checked with everyone have you?

Indeed.  Another waste of money.  There's only so much force feeding of a message people are prepared to take.  If you haven't had a booster/vaccine, a text message is likely to do the opposite in terms of what it is asking you to do.

[Babylon]

4 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Indeed.  Another waste of money.  There's only so much force feeding of a message people are prepared to take.  If you haven't had a booster/vaccine, a text message is likely to do the opposite in terms of what it is asking you to do.

You realise there are many people not watching the news or reading papers who would know don’t you?

[Nalis]

Been testing all week, all negative except for this morning where I tested positive this morning on 2 LFTs. Waiting for the PCR results but cant see it not being positive.

 

Spent Christmas with 8 other people, they all tested today and were negative.

 

Symptomwise in case it helps others - sore throat yesterday morning that I just put down to too many beers, sore throat went away by the afternoon. Little bit of a sniffly nose yesterday that got worse this morning. Bit of the cold remains and a slight head cold. Apart from that, all fine.

 

Was with fvck all people in the past week, went to the office once and the shops a few times. 

 

Had my booster a week ago.

[Legend_in_blue]

16 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Been testing all week, all negative except for this morning where I tested positive this morning on 2 LFTs. Waiting for the PCR results but cant see it not being positive.

 

Spent Christmas with 8 other people, they all tested today and were negative.

 

Symptomwise in case it helps others - sore throat yesterday morning that I just put down to too many beers, sore throat went away by the afternoon. Little bit of a sniffly nose yesterday that got worse this morning. Bit of the cold remains and a slight head cold. Apart from that, all fine.

 

Was with fvck all people in the past week, went to the office once and the shops a few times. 

 

Had my booster a week ago.

 

This is becoming a recurring theme.  Slight cold, nothing too bad and roll up for a PCR to confirm common cold symptoms aka Omicron.  It would appear that the doctor quoted on the BBC a couple of months ago was right, this virus will become like another common cold, although he mentioned this would happen by March, and not December as appears to be the case.

 

 

Edited 26 December 2021 by Legend_in_blue

[Md9]

19 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Been testing all week, all negative except for this morning where I tested positive this morning on 2 LFTs. Waiting for the PCR results but cant see it not being positive.

 

Spent Christmas with 8 other people, they all tested today and were negative.

 

Symptomwise in case it helps others - sore throat yesterday morning that I just put down to too many beers, sore throat went away by the afternoon. Little bit of a sniffly nose yesterday that got worse this morning. Bit of the cold remains and a slight head cold. Apart from that, all fine.

 

Was with fvck all people in the past week, went to the office once and the shops a few times. 

 

Had my booster a week ago.

Sounds the same as what I have currently have a sore throat yesterday afternoon and stuffy nose slight headache this morning tested negative so far no doubt test again tomorrow and be positive 🤦‍♂️ 
also had my booster last Sunday 

Edited 26 December 2021 by Md9

[Parafox]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Why are govt now wasting money sending a booster txt to presumably most phones in the UK?  I don't need the message thanks - and I'm sure neither does anyone else!

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, grobyfox1990 said:

I got one too. I thought it was a spam text and reported it to ofcom at 7726. 

 

1 hour ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

My In-laws have just been round our house and the mil just received a text saying get your booster now…. She had her booster on the 4th December. 

I had my booster 3 weeks ago. Got a text last week telling me their records show I didn't take the test and should book ASAP. 

I was the one with the needle in my arm!

[Parafox]

28 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

This is becoming a recurring theme.  Slight cold, nothing too bad and roll up for a PCR to confirm common cold symptoms aka Omicron.  It would appear that the doctor quoted on the BBC a couple of months ago was right, this virus will become like another common cold, although he mentioned this would happen by March, and not December as appears to be the case.

 

 

Mrs PF has had cold-like symptoms for 3 days, done 2 LFT's, both negative. Had a PCR and was also negative and was advised it was either a common cold or a throat infection. Still got to test regularly for the next 4 days.