Coronavirus Thread

[leicsmac]

A polite reminder:

 

[KrefelderFox666]

8 hours ago, rachhere said:

I really hope Boris' decision to let new year go ahead without any restrictions is data driven, rather than politically driven. Right now looking at this data and the lack of availability for testing it seems madness. 

Yes and no. Deaths are going down, this should be the ultimate driver (and I appreciate there are delays from cases but it has been weeks). Hospitalisations are going up but they are nowhere near the peak. The problem is we are too focussed on cases and testing. Initially this was a big help but now that vaccinations have been offered including top-up's, maybe it's time we focus on the important data.

 

Unless there is a grave danger, shutting the economy again would be more dangerous. We are in a different position to last year, a much better one.

 

Unfortunately with Boris it is likely political and he is taking a gamble with people's lives to save his face.

[Babylon]

13 hours ago, shade said:

At some point we have to stop explaining EVERYTHING away that doesn't fit the official narrative, if it's right that the unvaccinated represent 29% of the population but only 4.4% of cases, that is statistically significant whichever way you cut it.

No it's not, because they've already said I don't know how many f****** times the having had the two original jabs will not provide the protection they did. Immunity has waned over the last year and it's a new variant. Only those with a booster are really now "fully vaccinated, we knew from the start immunity would not last forever. They said the booster offers 70% protection against this variant, your numbers of 28% being in hospital literally match up pretty much exactly with that. 

[Babylon]

13 hours ago, shade said:

65% of UK hospitalisations are fully vaccinated so it absolutely DOES matter.

F*** my life, we are still actually having people come out with this horse shit. 

 

Some simple maths to try and help you understand. If there are 10 million people and 9.5 million are vaccinated, but  500,000 are not, then:

 

1% of the 9.5 million going into hospital is 95,000 people. 

20% of the 500,0000 people going into hospital is 75,000 people. 

 

MORE PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN MORE RISK

[Babylon]

10 hours ago, shade said:

All the evidence is that it has zero percent efficacy at stopping infection, yes it does a moderately effective job at stopping serious illness (mainly amongst clinically vulnerable people). Never forget it was "shown" to be 90% effective at stopping infection, also never forget the whistleblower who came forward to say how shoddy the trials were and how data was made up. Then never forget that Facebook "fact checked" the British Medical Journal for reporting on how poor Pfizer's trials were. 

[shade]

4 minutes ago, Babylon said:

F*** my life, we are still actually having people come out with this horse shit. 

 

Some simple maths to try and help you understand. If there are 10 million people and 9.5 million are vaccinated, but  500,000 are not, then:

 

1% of the 9.5 million going into hospital is 95,000 people. 

20% of the 500,0000 people going into hospital is 75,000 people. 

 

MORE PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN MORE RISK

I understand perfectly your point but with vaccinated people in the last month representing:

 

65% of cases

54% of hospitalisations

77% of deaths

 

It's an endorsement of the efficacy of the vaccine, but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Again, if I was over 60, very fat or had health problems I would get the vaccine, but I'm not, I didn't and I caught delta. I wouldn't even describe it as a mild cold.

 

Then again for the last 2 years I've been taking moderately high doses of vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc and probiotics, but supporting your immune system is a conspiracy theory.

 

 

 

[Babylon]

17 minutes ago, shade said:

I understand perfectly your point but with vaccinated people in the last month representing:

 

65% of cases

54% of hospitalisations

77% of deaths

Which, as I pointed out is due to there being vastly more vaccinated than unvaccinated. 

17 minutes ago, shade said:

It's an endorsement of the efficacy of the vaccine, but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Again, if I was over 60, very fat or had health problems I would get the vaccine, but I'm not, I didn't and I caught delta. I wouldn't even describe it as a mild cold.

You do as you wish, but there have been plenty of others who didn't have it mild. 

 

17 minutes ago, shade said:

Then again for the last 2 years I've been taking moderately high doses of vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc and probiotics, but supporting your immune system is a conspiracy theory.

Probably need to change your diet then.

[shade]

4 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Which, as I pointed out is due to there being vastly more vaccinated than unvaccinated. 

You do as you wish, but there have been plenty of others who didn't have it mild. 

 

Probably need to change your diet then.

hehe I respect the flippancy of your response about diet, but seriously, I would urge everyone here as a fellow Leicester supporter wanting only the best for you to start taking at the very least 2000 IU of vitamin D and a small amount of K2 every day through winter.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

[RowlattsFox]

Got a sore throat and a bit of a cough, nothing extreme, the sort of thing you'd normally mention to the Mrs and she'd tell you to man up and get on with it. Lateral flows have came back negative though last night and this morning. Unsure whether to go with them or go for a PCR. I don't want to test if I don't need to but heard loads recently say they had negative LFTs then a positive PCR. 

[Heathrow fox]

3 minutes ago, shade said:

hehe I respect the flippancy of your response about diet, but seriously, I would urge everyone here as a fellow Leicester supporter wanting only the best for you to start taking at the very least 2000 IU of vitamin D and a small amount of K2 every day through winter.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Much rather eat fruit and veg and lots of it.Kills three birds with one stone.I appreciate that vitamin D maybe more difficult to take in diet for some though.

[Soup]

11 minutes ago, shade said:

hehe I respect the flippancy of your response about diet, but seriously, I would urge everyone here as a fellow Leicester supporter wanting only the best for you to start taking at the very least 2000 IU of vitamin D and a small amount of K2 every day through winter.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Yeah I'd echo this however I do try and use natural products rather than supplements. Vitamin D especially is so important in the winter months. 

[shade]

Just now, Soup said:

Yeah I'd echo this however I do try and use natural products rather than supplements. Vitamin D especially is so important in the winter months. 

The levels of vitamin D you would need to increase your serum vitamin D to the desired level to be effective is quite simply impossible to get through diet.

[Facecloth]

Taking the total number of deaths and declaring 77% are from the vaccinated doesn't work, as you're taking the total number and comparing two groups with vastly different numbers in.

 

If you have 90% of a population vaccinated, even a small percentage of that number is going to be bigger that a large percentage of the 10%.

 

For example if its a pool of 100 people, 20% of the 90% is 18 that's more than the total number of the 10% as even 100% would only be 10. 

 

So rather than look at the 18 vaccinated and 10 unvaccinated out of 100 that died, adding them together and declaring 64% of the dead were vaccinated, you need to look at the 18 of 90 and 10 out of 10. So 20% of vaccinated died and 100% unvaccinated died.

 

*All numbers are made up for the purpose of making the point, I'm well aware 100% if unvaccinated people don't die.

Edited 31 December 2021 by Facecloth

[Babylon]

13 minutes ago, shade said:

hehe I respect the flippancy of your response about diet, but seriously, I would urge everyone here as a fellow Leicester supporter wanting only the best for you to start taking at the very least 2000 IU of vitamin D and a small amount of K2 every day through winter.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

I already take vitamin D in winter. The rest I get through a nice mixed diet. 

[Soup]

11 minutes ago, shade said:

The levels of vitamin D you would need to increase your serum vitamin D to the desired level to be effective is quite simply impossible to get through diet.

Yeah true, I did supplement Vit D through the winter months in the UK but I'm lucky enough be in the sun at the moment so I've knocked that on the head for now.

 

To be honest massively cutting down on alcohol seems to be the best thing I've done health wise. I'm considering giving it up completely tbh. 

[adam]

Just tested positive. Great start to the new year

[Nalis]

My day 6 LFT is positive so no early release for me. Probably going to be doing the full 10 days inside ffs

[VLC86]

Great to see such positive ends/starts to the years. Had my PCR this morning, positive lateral flow yesterday. I’ve had 3 bugs in December and this is the mildest of them by far.

[StanSP]

PCR Fit to Fly test done.

Now the anxious >24hr wait for results...

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Can we ever expect to be told the numbers of people in hospital because of Covid, as opposed to those in there for other reasons who have caught Omricon whilst in there? 

 

Seems a pretty major factor in determining if we need to be taking any more action. Into our third year of this crap tomorrow and we still can't figure this nuance out. 

[st albans fox]

10 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Just some random things to take from it:

 

1.  Letting the virus run free will mean lots of cases and the NHS can't cope.  We need to lock down to stop cases rising.  (She doesn't give any indication as to when this danger will pass, but as she says that this won't be the last variant, I presume she means never.)

 

2.  A firebreak lockdown would have stopped the rise in cases and prevented a peak in January.  (She doesn't provide any evidence for this, but presumably what evidence she has - if any - comes from theoretical models.  real world evidence certainly contradicts this claim.)

 

3.  If we had lockdown, businesses wouldn't have staff shortages due to covid.  Which I suppose is true.  They wouldn't need staff, would they.

 

4.  She doesn't want to talk about tdeath data because increases from omicron won't show up for at least another week and because data is incomplete.  But data for intensive care beds, at least in England, is complete up to date and shows no rise at all.  Why not quote that?

 

5.  She has come up with a graph that says if we let the virus go through the country with no further restrictions, hospital admissions will peak at 5k per day in January and it will all be over by february.  But if we go into full lockdown, gradually easing up to April, then we will keep admssions at about 1k per day for now, rising to 2k per day throughout March and April.  (At which point there is no doubt she will be arguing for more, longer lockdowns.)  I don't see there's any gain there.

Not too much to argue with on this apart from point 2

firebreaks and lockdowns would make a difference. To argue that they don’t is akin to Canute sitting on the beach.  Extending the period over which people catch the thing is bound to reduce the daily strain on the nhs. The govt has thus far gambled that the health service will deal with the surge next month ……I think that could change next week. Many thought that we would see a firebreak of two or three weeks after new year and that could still happen. 

[st albans fox]

Just now, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Can we ever expect to be told the numbers of people in hospital because of Covid, as opposed to those in there for other reasons who have caught Omricon whilst in there? 

 

Seems a pretty major factor in determining if we need to be taking any more action. Into our third year of this crap tomorrow and we still can't figure this nuance out. 

Or happen to have covid on admission for something else ?? 

I believe estimates are up to a third 

 

of course you need to be comparing apples and apples going back to previous peaks 

 

presumably anyone who is in hospital and happens to have covid requires additional care and resources re isolation etc etc 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

12 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Or happen to have covid on admission for something else ?? 

I believe estimates are up to a third 

 

of course you need to be comparing apples and apples going back to previous peaks 

 

presumably anyone who is in hospital and happens to have covid requires additional care and resources re isolation etc etc 

Yeah, obviously someone who gets it in hospital clearly still takes up resources but statistically the chances of them becoming seriously ill with it is the same as if they caught it outside, IE not very high at all? 

 

If only we had some journalists that would ask these kind of questions, as it is they all tow the line to make sure they don't get booted off the invitation list.

Edited 31 December 2021 by Sol thewall Bamba

[shade]

8 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Yeah, obviously someone who gets it in hospital clearly still takes up resources but statistically the chances of them becoming seriously ill with it is the same as if they caught it outside, IE not very high at all? 

 

If only we had some journalists that would ask these kind of questions, as it is they all tow the line to make sure they don't get booted off the invitation list.

Trust the science. Yes it sounds Orwellian, but trust us, you have to trust the science.

[steve555]

1 hour ago, RowlattsFox said:

Got a sore throat and a bit of a cough, nothing extreme, the sort of thing you'd normally mention to the Mrs and she'd tell you to man up and get on with it. Lateral flows have came back negative though last night and this morning. Unsure whether to go with them or go for a PCR. I don't want to test if I don't need to but heard loads recently say they had negative LFTs then a positive PCR. 

Sounds a bit like me on boxing day, woke up with sore throat, did a lateral flow which was negative, starting coughing a bit in the afternoon, so did another test which was postitive. PCR next day confimed it. Have now passed it on to the missus. Both of us were trippled jabbed & both wear masks all day at work.