Coronavirus Thread

[kingfox]

12 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

This is short term.  We aren't going to have 5m cases per week for very long.  By February we should be over the worst and by March, almost back to normal.  The long term (and possibly short term, fingers crossed) plan is that if, with the help of vaccines, this disease becomes no worse than flu, then we can treat it like we treat flu.

And that’s the thing, it’s always a short term plan, the long term plan could be way off, unless the virus mutates into something less prevalent and severe.

 

As for the short term though, is what we are doing sufficient? 
 

The ‘do your bit to help certain sectors’ bullshit they keep spouting, it’s a bit hard to help those certain sectors, when they are currently falling into a crisis by default.

[BKLFox]

23 hours ago, kingfox said:

Briefing time with Bumbling Boris, FFS 

 

I wonder how the French interpreter signed Macron's speech

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59873833

[reynard]

9 hours ago, shade said:

I think there has to be a middle ground we can reach though because not everyone will succumb to the punishments. I mean personally, I would happily wear some kind of badge to identify to people that I'm unvaccinated so they can avoid me if they want, or maybe even better, give me the option to pay health insurance to cover hospital bills if needed (taper the payments by age, weight, smoker, underlying health conditions etc). 

 

As a hypothetical question where would you stop making their life intolerable, is there a cut off point? Because I wouldn't go out and would lose my job before I got the vaccine. Would you go to fines? I would pay them. Prison sentences? I would possibly leave my children depending on the length of time. Isolation camps, or god forbid, extermination?

 

You know, 100-200 years ago people said the same things and made the same arguments about the vaccine for small pox. Fortunately science was proved right and the sceptics completely wrong and a terrible illness was eventually eradicated from the world.

It is largely those unvaccinated who are, right now, in this country in the worst shape in hospital. They're not all old, infirm or overweight. Though it helps to look after oneself, health isn't as simple as this. I'm afraid luck plays a part too. 

I've known people who appeared thin and fit and exercised a lot who've dropped dead from a heart attack, who've developed cancer or other untreatable illnesses. 

It appears you've taken care of yourself but the fact that you didn't get very ill was also down to luck. Those who choose to be unvaccinated are basically taking a bet. Betting on their immune system holding up. If they are young then their odds are better but not certain if they are over 50 then their gamble is far greater.

What depresses me is the effects on those on the front lines of treating people who confront this every day and have to see people die and suffer through ignorance. 

Edited 5 January 2022 by reynard

[FoxyPV]

4 hours ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Never heard that terminology used before...

I've been married 15 years. MsFoxy isn't showing me anything any more

[Parafox]

5 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

That's been a lot of the problem with the NHS and why they haven't been able to produce sensible plans to increase capacity by say 20,000 beds for a short term spike.  Because they are too much in love with regulation and perfection. 

 

They have their idea of what is needed to be the perfect paramedic, or nurse, or whatever, and I dare say they may be right.  But they go on to say that the likes of Parafox are not perfect and so are deemed to be no use at all.  They need to get their heads round the idea that someone who was up-to-date 18 months ago is still very, very useful today; and a very, very useful paramedic - even if not perfect - is a lot better than having nobody at all.

 

They've been the same with nurses, even for injections.  Does someone who was a nurse for 30 years and retired a couple of years ago, really need a 21-module training course to teach her how to inject vaccinations?  Of course not.  But the NHS top brass think she does.

Abso-bloody-lutely this.

I applied to be a vaccinator as soon as I realised there was going to be a need. I thought, because of my previous training and experience I'd be a straight forward choice with the additional on-line training on the types of vaccines, storage methods, potential allergic reactions and the stuff like that. But no, whatever matching EMAS training modules I could provide evidence of successfully completed didn't count. Even Manual Handling, Fire Safety, Safeguarding for vulnerable adults and more.

By the time I had completed and submitted all modules I got a reply saying that they had enough vaccinators but they'd keep my details on file and let me know if there was any other suitable "employment within the NHS"!! I'd already confirmed that I was retired.

It's set up by e-fl: e-learning for health, which manages most of medical training for health care staff but not Paramedics which is why we are not recognised as being competent until we've completed their modules

Farcical system. 

Edited 5 January 2022 by Parafox

[Farrington fox]

I’d bet NHS management and protocols are responsible for most of their woes. 

[Parafox]

3 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

I’d bet NHS management and protocols are responsible for most of their woes. 

I don't agree with everything you say but I do agree with this. Top heavy management structures and protocols that never seem to get reviewed to test their functionality or appropriateness.

[Parafox]

4 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

My guess would be that annual vaccines will do, just like flu.  Besides, if this wave continues as it is, then the number of people susceptible to the virus should be negligible fairly quickly and that would faltten the wave like nobody's business.

 

I reckon that the best policy would be to ride it out now in the hope and expectation that the number of cases must of necessity drop.  And let the NHS cope as best it can, accepting that certain treatments will be less effective for the short term, and also accepting that people like parafox (if he was willing) would be allowed back to work without the palaver of retraining.  Medical people aren't fools, they know what they can and can't do.

 

15 minutes ago, Parafox said:

Abso-bloody-lutely this.

I applied to be a vaccinator as soon as I realised there was going to be a need. I thought, because of my previous training and experience I'd be a straight forward choice with the additional on-line training on the types of vaccines, storage methods, potential allergic reactions and the stuff like that. But no, whatever matching EMAS training modules I could provide evidence of successfully completed didn't count. Even Manual Handling, Fire Safety, Safeguarding for vulnerable adults and more.

By the time I had completed and submitted all modules I got a reply saying that they had enough vaccinators but they'd keep my details on file and let me know if there was any other suitable "employment within the NHS"!! I'd already confirmed that I was retired.

It's set up by e-fl: e-learning for health, which manages most of medical training for health care staff but not Paramedics which is why we are not recognised as being competent until we've completed their modules

Farcical system. 

 

[st albans fox]

@shade  it seems that the latest data for unvaccinated in ICU is now 61% 

 

this varies between 50% and 66% across different regions. Looks like the highest returns are where omicron is surging the most. 
 

I believe that the average did drop to around 50% by late November 

[dsr-burnley]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

@shade  it seems that the latest data for unvaccinated in ICU is now 61% 

 

this varies between 50% and 66% across different regions. Looks like the highest returns are where omicron is surging the most. 
 

I believe that the average did drop to around 50% by late November 

So in the last 3 weeks, 2,825,000 people have tested positive for coronavirus, and 355 unvaccinated people are in intensive care.  1 in 8,000.  This is not the same disease as it was two years ago.

[shade]

20 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

@shade  it seems that the latest data for unvaccinated in ICU is now 61% 

 

this varies between 50% and 66% across different regions. Looks like the highest returns are where omicron is surging the most. 
 

I believe that the average did drop to around 50% by late November 

I don't disagree that elderly, fat or unwell people that don't get vaccinated are taking a risk unecessarily. I still maintain, and I'm happy to be proven wrong, that your chances as an under 50 year old, with a BMI under 25 and no underlying health conditions, that doesn't smoke, and doesn't drink excessively, of ending up in ICU is so negligible that they shouldn't be vilified.

 

If they are to be vilified, I think you have to vilify everyone that carries a BMI over 25, drinks more units per week than recommended, smokes, uses sunbeds,  engages in unprotected sex (particularly homosexual), or partakes in any other number of risky behaviours.

[st albans fox]

19 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

So in the last 3 weeks, 2,825,000 people have tested positive for coronavirus, and 355 unvaccinated people are in intensive care.  1 in 8,000.  This is not the same disease as it was two years ago.

People dont generally go into ICU within 10 days of testing positive 

 

I would think you have to look at case numbers in the 10 days up to 20th dec to judge those ICU patients against 

 

where did you get current ICU occupation to be 580 ? 

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, shade said:

I don't disagree that elderly, fat or unwell people that don't get vaccinated are taking a risk unecessarily. I still maintain, and I'm happy to be proven wrong, that your chances as an under 50 year old, with a BMI under 25 and no underlying health conditions, that doesn't smoke, and doesn't drink excessively, of ending up in ICU is so negligible that they shouldn't be vilified.

 

If they are to be vilified, I think you have to vilify everyone that carries a BMI over 25, drinks more units per week than recommended, smokes, uses sunbeds,  engages in unprotected sex (particularly homosexual), or partakes in any other number of risky behaviours.

We don’t have a demographic assessment of those in ICU 

 

We would assume certain things (as you have done) ……but we don’t actually know 

[shade]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We don’t have a demographic assessment of those in ICU 

 

We would assume certain things (as you have done) ……but we don’t actually know 

The report they publish breaks it down quite well, there's some interesting bits like this, showing how far we've been above the 5 year average since covid started (not much)...

 

 

[shade]

Or this which shows the BMI of people seriously ill with covid 19,  its primarily a pandemic of obesity (my BMI is 22).

 

[Unabomber]

Can’t believe some people still haven’t had their vaccine now with all the info available. It’s crazy I’ve never known any other vaccine have people actually refuse it, so weird. 

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, Unabomber said:

Can’t believe some people still haven’t had their vaccine now with all the info available. It’s crazy I’ve never known any other vaccine have people actually refuse it, so weird. 

Just shows what misinformation can do to people. That, and massive over-confidence.

[Unabomber]

Just now, HighPeakFox said:

Just shows what misinformation can do to people. That, and massive over-confidence.

It’s just very weird. Someone I know didn’t have it then ended up in hospital and very close to a ventilator. When he was well enough the first thing he sorted was his vaccine. Why would anyone take that risk it is genuinely mental. 

[Dunge]

9 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

It’s just very weird. Someone I know didn’t have it then ended up in hospital and very close to a ventilator. When he was well enough the first thing he sorted was his vaccine. Why would anyone take that risk it is genuinely mental. 

I assume because people are fearful of some unknown chemical being injected into their body.

 

All the following arguments are about building a case for a conclusion they’ve already decided. People are acting more like barristers than scientists.

[danny.]

12 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

Can’t believe some people still haven’t had their vaccine now with all the info available. It’s crazy I’ve never known any other vaccine have people actually refuse it, so weird. 

We've been over this before in this thread, but i.e. for me - when it started I knew of several people die from blood clots and one paralysed in half her body - made me REALLY hesitant to be vaccinated. That was from the AZ, shortly after they then stopped using it. You can surely see why people would be hesitant if they personally knew of people die from a vaccine and didn't know of anyone getting ill from Covid. Data aside, we are emotional creatures and what we personally know has a strong affect on people's decisions.

[Unabomber]

4 minutes ago, danny. said:

We've been over this before in this thread, but i.e. for me - when it started I knew of several people die from blood clots and one paralysed in half her body - made me REALLY hesitant to be vaccinated. That was from the AZ, shortly after they then stopped using it. You can surely see why people would be hesitant if they personally knew of people die from a vaccine and didn't know of anyone getting ill from Covid. Data aside, we are emotional creatures and what we personally know has a strong affect on people's decisions.

Surely the odds on that are crazy though? I would guess statistically the odds on dying from covid when unvaccinated are shorter than dying from some adverse reaction to the vaccine? 

[Unabomber]

9 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I assume because people are fearful of some unknown chemical being injected into their body.

 

All the following arguments are about building a case for a conclusion they’ve already decided. People are acting more like barristers than scientists.

It’s not some unknown chemical is it though? It’s a vaccine to prevent death ffs from a virus that’s everywhere 

[RowlattsFox]

Unless I'm missing something, surely the fact you don't need to get a PCR test means number of reported cases will inevitably fall as people will just take the lateral flow and not do anything with that? They might isolate, and I think most will, but will they report the results. Only people taking PCRs now will be those who don't any lateral flows, I guess they will continue to reduce the amount of them available to ensure people get PCRs if asymptomatic. 

[danny.]

1 minute ago, Unabomber said:

Surely the odds on that are crazy though? I would guess statistically the odds on dying from covid when unvaccinated are shorter than dying from some adverse reaction to the vaccine? 

Apparently, but the people I mentioned were just in Leicester - so certainly didn't feel like crazy low odds. I find the overall death rate from AZ (low 70s UK wide IIRC) very hard to believe, based on the UK population and people I know (which isn't that many!).

At the start, I look at my risk from Covid on the qCovid risk calculator and it was less than the data I could find from the Yellow Card scheme. It's all a bit overwhelming for a layperson though, which is probably why people think "well my 3 mates died, so no chance I'm having it".

 

Also against the backdrop that we were told only over 50s would ever be vaccinated, as the risk/reward for anyone under that wasn't worth it. And although variants might change that, it stays in people's minds.

[HighPeakFox]

18 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

It’s not some unknown chemical is it though? It’s a vaccine to prevent death ffs from a virus that’s everywhere 

For all that I disagree with him, @shade is at least trying to make a good case for why he thinks the risk to him is infinitesimal. I find his case flawed, of course, because I think he is being disingenuous to an extent and  he's already admitted being a contrarian, which suggests (to me anyway) that he's doing it mindfully and for effect.