Coronavirus Thread

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 hours ago, Parafox said:

I don't agree with everything you say but I do agree with this. Top heavy management structures and protocols that never seem to get reviewed to test their functionality or appropriateness.

Same with almost everything in the public sector (from my experience)

[Leicester_Loyal]

No PCR test required afte an LFT positive now.

 

Public sector, shift of 7 in a row, orange juice in an LFT the night before shift starts, full pay for 7 days, doesn't go down as sickness. This system is sadly going to be abused over and over again.

[Dunge]

43 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

It’s not some unknown chemical is it though? It’s a vaccine to prevent death ffs from a virus that’s everywhere 

I agree. But Danny’s right above when he says it’s emotional. And fear is a strong emotion.

 

With Covid, people feel they don’t have to face it immediately. (They do eventually, but it doesn’t feel like it because the odds at any single moment are in your favour.)

With the vaccine, it puts a time and date on it. I can see why people feel different about it and don’t want to face it, whatever science and logic may say. And then they build their own science and logic around the decision when they’re challenged on it.

[st albans fox]

18 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

No PCR test required afte an LFT positive now.

 

Public sector, shift of 7 in a row, orange juice in an LFT the night before shift starts, full pay for 7 days, doesn't go down as sickness. This system is sadly going to be abused over and over again.

If asymptomatic 

sadly I suspect you will be proved right - it’s a licence for any lazy public sector workers to get a week off and leaves the responsible majority to cover for them when services will already be v stretched. 

[pazzerfox]

1 hour ago, Unabomber said:

Can’t believe some people still haven’t had their vaccine now with all the info available. It’s crazy I’ve never known any other vaccine have people actually refuse it, so weird. 

I think it comes down to peoples experiences.  I have 2 friends that are boostered up and have come down with it over christmas and and are quite ill (head aches, palpitations, no energy).  Then my next door neighbour has just tested positive with a lateral flow who is unvaccinated (albeit younger) and has no symtoms whatsoever!   

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Dunge said:

I agree. But Danny’s right above when he says it’s emotional. And fear is a strong emotion.

 

With Covid, people feel they don’t have to face it immediately. (They do eventually, but it doesn’t feel like it because the odds at any single moment are in your favour.)

With the vaccine, it puts a time and date on it. I can see why people feel different about it and don’t want to face it, whatever science and logic may say. And then they build their own science and logic around the decision when they’re challenged on it.

 

2 hours ago, danny. said:

Apparently, but the people I mentioned were just in Leicester - so certainly didn't feel like crazy low odds. I find the overall death rate from AZ (low 70s UK wide IIRC) very hard to believe, based on the UK population and people I know (which isn't that many!).

At the start, I look at my risk from Covid on the qCovid risk calculator and it was less than the data I could find from the Yellow Card scheme. It's all a bit overwhelming for a layperson though, which is probably why people think "well my 3 mates died, so no chance I'm having it".

 

Also against the backdrop that we were told only over 50s would ever be vaccinated, as the risk/reward for anyone under that wasn't worth it. And although variants might change that, it stays in people's minds.

Yeah, the decision comes down to fear at the end of the day, as Dunge states.

 

The issue is, however, that while that fear is understandable it is not logical, and behaviour like that has been shown to not necessarily be a good thing in terms of self preservation (or preservation of species, if we're talking long term). So I'm not sure how excusable it is.

 

It's a tricky one though; how do you help people overcome those base instincts when that voice is often very loud?

[dsr-burnley]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

People dont generally go into ICU within 10 days of testing positive 

 

I would think you have to look at case numbers in the 10 days up to 20th dec to judge those ICU patients against 

 

where did you get current ICU occupation to be 580 ? 

I think you're stretching a point to get to 15 days from testing positive to ICU occupation.  This American study suggests 8-12 days from onset of symptoms to intensive care, but that was in China; the UK study shows 13 days from onset of symptoms to death so presumably onset of symptoms to intensive care would be less.  And in most cases the confirmed test would come after onset of symptoms, which would reduce the number by another day or two from testing to intensive care, especially in 2020 when there was less testing. I couldn't find an equivalent study for time from symptoms to intensive care for delta variant.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf

 

As for 580?  There are 911 patients in intensive care beds in the UK as at 4th January.  39% are vaccinated.  That means 355 people.  I think you might be getting your 61% unvaccinated, 39% vaccinated, the wrong way round.

[Sly]

I personally believe reviewing data against BMI is wrong.
 

You can have a high BMI rating, purely by carrying a large amount of muscle mass. It should be against body fat %. 

[shade]

4 hours ago, Sly said:

I personally believe reviewing data against BMI is wrong.
 

You can have a high BMI rating, purely by carrying a large amount of muscle mass. It should be against body fat %. 

hehe, yeah I'm sure a huge percentage of +30 bmi people are absolute steroid abusing muscle men and not just fat. that's a slightly disingenuous argument, as I've said BMI isn't perfect, but I think anecdotally we can say our population is fat and generally unwell.

[shade]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

Yeah, the decision comes down to fear at the end of the day, as Dunge states.

 

The issue is, however, that while that fear is understandable it is not logical, and behaviour like that has been shown to not necessarily be a good thing in terms of self preservation (or preservation of species, if we're talking long term). So I'm not sure how excusable it is.

 

It's a tricky one though; how do you help people overcome those base instincts when that voice is often very loud?

Do you feel that the fear of the virus is logical for most people? I see healthy, affluent, slim 30 something year olds rushing to book their third injection in 12 months because of the constant fearmongering in the media. That fear should be a good thing for self preservation this time.

 

edit: I only weirdly mentioned affluent because I didn't realise the effect of poverty on likelihood to be admitted to ICU (I guess they're more likely to have comorbidities). yes guys, sadly I've got another drum to bang lol, another thing to add to my list of reasons for not getting it.

Edited 6 January 2022 by shade

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, shade said:

Do you feel that the fear of the virus is logical for most people? I see healthy, affluent, slim 30 something year olds rushing to book their third injection in 12 months because of the constant fearmongering in the media. That fear should be a good thing for self preservation this time.

 

And so this claim endures - and yet since the early emergence of Omicron, the media have consistently reported that it is far milder in terms of symptoms (even in the initial absence of substantive real world data to support this claim).

 

The clamour for the booster that you detect (which is what I assume you were referring to), was more driven by the fear of restrictions, particularly prior to the Christmas period - and the latter is no different to the hysteria that we have consistently seen on this thread throughout the last 22 months. Following a slump in the polls, the catastrophic triumph of Helen Morgan in North Shropshire, the furore and public outrage over 'party-gate' and the very real threat of a revolt in his own party, unlike the rest of the UK, there were never really going to be any because BJ is more concerned about preserving his cult of personality than the NHS or the health and well being of the nation. Precisely the reason for the 'wait and see' approach and precisely the reason that this thread hasn't descended into another meltdown because those members that are only concerned about their own so called 'liberties' (social lives) haven't found it necessary to vent spleen. 

[shade]

16 minutes ago, Line-X said:

And so this claim endures - and yet since the early emergence of Omicron, the media have consistently reported that it is far milder in terms of symptoms (even in the initial absence of substantive real world data to support this claim).

 

The clamour for the booster that you detect (which is what I assume you were referring to), was more driven by the fear of restrictions, particularly prior to the Christmas period - and the latter is no different to the hysteria that we have consistently seen on this thread throughout the last 22 months. Following a slump in the polls, the catastrophic triumph of Helen Morgan in North Shropshire, the furore and public outrage over 'party-gate' and the very real threat of a revolt in his own party, unlike the rest of the UK, there were never really going to be any because BJ is more concerned about preserving his cult of personality than the NHS or the health and well being of the nation. Precisely the reason for the 'wait and see' approach and precisely the reason that this thread hasn't descended into another meltdown because those members that are only concerned about their own so called 'liberties' (social lives) haven't found it necessary to vent spleen. 

Good post. With the clamour for the booster, I was referencing people I know personally, they seem to be driven by an almost ideological fear of the virus now, rather than real world evidence, none of these people have ever had a flu vaccine, yet they're rushing to book their boosters, even on Boxing Day.

[CosbehFox]

46 minutes ago, Line-X said:

And so this claim endures - and yet since the early emergence of Omicron, the media have consistently reported that it is far milder in terms of symptoms (even in the initial absence of substantive real world data to support this claim).

 

The clamour for the booster that you detect (which is what I assume you were referring to), was more driven by the fear of restrictions, particularly prior to the Christmas period - and the latter is no different to the hysteria that we have consistently seen on this thread throughout the last 22 months. Following a slump in the polls, the catastrophic triumph of Helen Morgan in North Shropshire, the furore and public outrage over 'party-gate' and the very real threat of a revolt in his own party, unlike the rest of the UK, there were never really going to be any because BJ is more concerned about preserving his cult of personality than the NHS or the health and well being of the nation. Precisely the reason for the 'wait and see' approach and precisely the reason that this thread hasn't descended into another meltdown because those members that are only concerned about their own so called 'liberties' (social lives) haven't found it necessary to vent spleen. 

I’d agree with your first point. Good news is the key for a click, now the general public has had enough of bad news. 
 

There has been some balanced commentators on the data; particularly the journalist from the FT.
 

My personal grievances are a number of doctors or virologists in a stint of new found Twitter fame appear hell bent on exaggerating bad news to do a ‘I told you so, you are all stupid’. Numerous of them were talking up the possibility of an omicron / delta hybrid - went on social media going nuts about but then it was found to be a contaminated sample. None of them deleted their post - that’s the same way fake news works. I think a lot of their viewpoint comes from the safe haven of knowing their job is secure for the future. The average joe isn’t and we desperately want to get out of this mess. A lot of us no longer have the mental capacity or compliance to do that anymore. 
 

Sorry Line X, that’s a reply to you as it’s gone on a tangent but just something I wanted to get off my chest. 

Edited 6 January 2022 by Cardiff_Fox

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

My personal grievances are a number of doctors or virologists in a stint of new found Twitter fame appear hell bent on exaggerating bad news to do a ‘I told you so, you are all stupid’. Numerous of them were talking up the possibility of an omicron / delta hybrid - went on social media going nuts about but then it was found to be a contaminated sample. None of them deleted their post - that’s the same way fake news works. I think a lot of their viewpoint comes from the safe haven of knowing their job is secure for the future. The average joe isn’t and we desperately want to get out of this mess. A lot of us no longer have the mental capacity or compliance to do that anymore. 

How many though? It really only takes a small number to proclaim something sensationalist and people will tend to seize upon it.  No different to the appeal to authority, cherry picking and confirmation bias on this thread which some embrace because it reinforces an opinion (don't search solely for evidence of what you want to find - look for evidence to the contrary). As I and others have encouraged members to do, avoid populist social media outlets - you're only ever one step away from the Mike Yeadons or worse still, the Andrew Wakefields of this world. Embrace the community of practice, the entire field - yes of course there will be differences, but listen to what the science tells you, not the scientists per se. It is the mission of the former to resolve these differences, establish the truth and to question...to falsify itself which is how it advances. A true scientist will invite such scrutiny and through this entertains the prospect of being corrected, having their theories revised, or being outright wrong. 

 

Ironically, our "way out of this mess" is through science. The problem is, opinion, individuals, politics, agendas and constructs invariably obfuscate and get in the way. 

Edited 6 January 2022 by Line-X

[KrefelderFox666]

6 hours ago, Sly said:

I personally believe reviewing data against BMI is wrong.
 

You can have a high BMI rating, purely by carrying a large amount of muscle mass. It should be against body fat %. 

It's just another pointless measurement in isolation. Just because your BMI is over x % doesn't mean you are unhealthy and vice versa. It is a lot more complicated to work out a person's risk to illness.

[KrefelderFox666]

10 hours ago, pazzerfox said:

I think it comes down to peoples experiences.  I have 2 friends that are boostered up and have come down with it over christmas and and are quite ill (head aches, palpitations, no energy).  Then my next door neighbour has just tested positive with a lateral flow who is unvaccinated (albeit younger) and has no symtoms whatsoever!   

Everyone will react differently. It is hard to say if the effects of a vaccine are exactly the same as getting Covid. In the above case, those two who had side effects from the booster may have had the same (or worse) from a natural infection. The one who was unvaccinated, may have received zero side effects from a vaccine just like he did with having Covid. Everyone weighs up their own risks and makes their decision.

[KrefelderFox666]

11 hours ago, Unabomber said:

Can’t believe some people still haven’t had their vaccine now with all the info available. It’s crazy I’ve never known any other vaccine have people actually refuse it, so weird. 

I guess there are a few categories (if done broadly):

 

1. Those who are unsure about putting anything in their body that they feel uncomfortable with and who may think they are at low risk of issues with Covid (generally those under 40 who are fit and healthy and rarely get ill)

2. Those who have been brainwashed by social media, partly their problem for being such drags but brought on by misinformation

3. Those who think they are number 1 above but are actually just idiots. Best example was those two French TV stars who refused the vaccine because they thought they were safe (even though they were over 70) and who didn't want to put anything into their bodies (yet they were pumped full of cosmetic surgery/Botox)! Or another example, those who wouldn't think twice about a bag of sniff on the weekend from their local dodgy dealer yet won't take a medically approved vaccine.

 

I can understand those in category 1, the ones in category 2 I will give the benefit of the doubt (just about) but those in category 3 get no sympathy and are the ones you could class as "idiots".

[st albans fox]

8 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I think you're stretching a point to get to 15 days from testing positive to ICU occupation.  This American study suggests 8-12 days from onset of symptoms to intensive care, but that was in China; the UK study shows 13 days from onset of symptoms to death so presumably onset of symptoms to intensive care would be less.  And in most cases the confirmed test would come after onset of symptoms, which would reduce the number by another day or two from testing to intensive care, especially in 2020 when there was less testing. I couldn't find an equivalent study for time from symptoms to intensive care for delta variant.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf

 

As for 580?  There are 911 patients in intensive care beds in the UK as at 4th January.  39% are vaccinated.  That means 355 people.  I think you might be getting your 61% unvaccinated, 39% vaccinated, the wrong way round.

you wrote

 

So in the last 3 weeks, 2,825,000 people have tested positive for coronavirus, and 355 unvaccinated people are in intensive care.  1 in 8,000.

so 61% of UNvaccinatee people is 555. (My 580 question was based on 61% being non vaxxed and your quote of 355.)

 

 

In addition to this I am happy to lay bets that those who enter ICU from covid symptoms are not dying within 13 days of showing those symptoms. I suspect those stats are heavily skewed by elderly vulnerable patients who succumb quite quickly. They don’t go anywhere near ICU 

 

Edited 6 January 2022 by st albans fox

[Stivo]

6 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I guess there are a few categories (if done broadly):

 

1. Those who are unsure about putting anything in their body that they feel uncomfortable with and who may think they are at low risk of issues with Covid (generally those under 40 who are fit and healthy and rarely get ill)

2. Those who have been brainwashed by social media, partly their problem for being such drags but brought on by misinformation

3. Those who think they are number 1 above but are actually just idiots. Best example was those two French TV stars who refused the vaccine because they thought they were safe (even though they were over 70) and who didn't want to put anything into their bodies (yet they were pumped full of cosmetic surgery/Botox)! Or another example, those who wouldn't think twice about a bag of sniff on the weekend from their local dodgy dealer yet won't take a medically approved vaccine.

 

I can understand those in category 1, the ones in category 2 I will give the benefit of the doubt (just about) but those in category 3 get no sympathy and are the ones you could class as "idiots".

also

4. Needle phobics

 

Some people faint at the sight of a needle and so may want the vaccine but keep putting it off 

 

I know a couple of people like this.

 

[CosbehFox]

41 minutes ago, Line-X said:

How many though? It really only takes a small number to proclaim something sensationalist and people will tend to seize upon it.  No different to the appeal to authority, cherry picking and confirmation bias on this thread which some embrace because it reinforces an opinion (don't search solely for evidence of what you want to find - look for evidence to the contrary). As I and others have encouraged members to do, avoid populist social media outlets - you're only ever one step away from the Mike Yeadon's or worse still, the Andrew Wakefield's of this world. Embrace the community of practice, the entire field - yes of course there will be differences, but listen to what the science tells you, not the scientists per se. It is the mission of the former to resolve these differences, establish the truth and to question...to falsify itself which is how it advances. A true scientist will invite such scrutiny and through this entertains the prospect of being corrected, having their theories revised, or being outright wrong. 

 

Ironically, our "way out of this mess" is through science. The problem is, opinion, individuals, politics, agendas and constructs invariably obfuscate and get in the way. 

You seem to be thinking that I can’t view things objectively. I certainly can. The problem with the modern world and social media is that it craves thrown arguments/debates into two very clear answers - yes/no, black/white. Nuance doesn’t exist. I can recognise the Yeadon’s from the rest. 
 

Science has enabled us to live with a decent level of freedom for more than six months now. However unless the world begins to unite and get the vaccine across the world, the current tactics being chosen won’t work. 

Edited 6 January 2022 by Cardiff_Fox

[Christoph]

Sorry but BMI is  a decent indicator for health. Your body isn't made to be carrying lots of weight around all day. Doesn't matter if your jacked to the gills or just a fat sh*t. Bodybuilders etc aren't exactly the peak of being healthy. Half of them die before 70, yes generally because of drug abuse from taking too many peds but also because of how much your heart is straining keeping your body up. Nobody should be 120kg if you're 5'10 for example, whether you're fat, rugby player or bodybuilder. That kind of height and weight does impact the body. Don't get why people have such a hate boner for bmi when for the most part the science shows its pretty accurate on a wider scale. 

[Countryfox]

11 minutes ago, Stivo said:

also

4. Needle phobics

 

Some people faint at the sight of a needle and so may want the vaccine but keep putting it off 

 

I know a couple of people like this.

 

Don’t look ..  always works for me. 
 

My mate gave me my booster at a walk in centre on the Narborough road ..  I yowled like a good un in front of a few people that were waiting to leave and accused him of being a butcher ..  but he got the last laugh when he a gave me a backhander ..  

 

Tough times but try and keep smiling ..

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

You seem to be thinking that I can’t view things objectively. I certainly can. 

No I really don't and I didn't say that.

 

8 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

The problem with the modern world and social media is that it craves thrown arguments/debates into two very clear answers - yes/no, black/white. Nuance doesn’t exist.

In science no. However, it does to an extent employ the dialectic process to progress - the populist world that we increasingly inhabit does not. 

 

10 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Science has enabled us to live with a decent level of freedom for more than six months now. However unless the world begins to unite and get the vaccine across the world, the current tactics being chosen won’t work. 

Precisely what I was alluding to in my concluding sentence. 

[CosbehFox]

Anyway covid is over. The variant coming from Sean Dyche will weaken it significantly enough to kill it 

[dsr-burnley]

36 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

you wrote

 

So in the last 3 weeks, 2,825,000 people have tested positive for coronavirus, and 355 unvaccinated people are in intensive care.  1 in 8,000.

so 61% of UNvaccinatee people is 555. (My 580 question was based on 61% being non vaxxed and your quote of 355.)

 

 

In addition to this I am happy to lay bets that those who enter ICU from covid symptoms are not dying within 13 days of showing those symptoms. I suspect those stats are heavily skewed by elderly vulnerable patients who succumb quite quickly. They don’t go anywhere near ICU 

 

911 people are in mechanical ventilation beds.  If 39% have been vaccinated and 61% have not been vaccinated, then that means 355 have been vaccinated and 556 have not.  Ignoring meaningless decimals, so there may be a rounding difference of 1 from your figure.

 

Even if you're right that virtually no-one is in intensive care within 15 days of getting symptoms, and I need to go back to the week ending 20th December - where are they?  week end 13th December, there were 395k identified cases.  Week ending 20th December, 669k.  That's 274k extra cases, from over three weeks ago.  Number of people in mechanical ventilation beds was 900 on 13th December, 859 on 20th December, 911 now.  If even 1 in 1,000 of those extra cases needed mechanical ventilation, there would be 274 more people.  The earlier waves were far more serious than that.  So I repeat, this is not the same disease as it was 2 years ago.