Coronavirus Thread

[dsr-burnley]

8 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Anyway covid is over. The variant coming from Sean Dyche will weaken it significantly enough to kill it 

Covid has gone into 7 days' isolation.  

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I guess there are a few categories (if done broadly):

 

1. Those who are unsure about putting anything in their body that they feel uncomfortable with and who may think they are at low risk of issues with Covid (generally those under 40 who are fit and healthy and rarely get ill)

2. Those who have been brainwashed by social media, partly their problem for being such drags but brought on by misinformation

3. Those who think they are number 1 above but are actually just idiots. Best example was those two French TV stars who refused the vaccine because they thought they were safe (even though they were over 70) and who didn't want to put anything into their bodies (yet they were pumped full of cosmetic surgery/Botox)! Or another example, those who wouldn't think twice about a bag of sniff on the weekend from their local dodgy dealer yet won't take a medically approved vaccine.

 

I can understand those in category 1, the ones in category 2 I will give the benefit of the doubt (just about) but those in category 3 get no sympathy and are the ones you could class as "idiots".

 

My problem with most of the people in your 1st category is their inconsistency. Most of them will have had other vaccines in the past and/or will have taken prescribed medication without scrutinising research into their safety. Most will eat processed food, possibly including take-aways, and will drink beer or tap water without cast-iron safety guarantees. Likewise, they'll get into a car, train or plane without personal knowledge of their safety. They'll take a small implicit risk.

 

Maybe there is a tiny minority who always eat fresh food sourced from identified farms, purify their water and research any car they get into or any pill they swallow or beer they drink. But most people trust that such things are safe or take a small calculated risk that they may not be, perhaps avoiding unhygenic take-aways and products/vehicles of dubious safety.

 

There's another category or sub-category I had more sympathy for initially: people who questioned the rapid development and safety of Covid vaccines specifically. I wouldn't have been brave enough to volunteer for the initial vaccine trials. But even that specific initial concern about Covid vaccines surely no longer applies. There is a mass of evidence that, while vaccination DOES entail a very small risk, the virus entails a massively larger risk for people overall. Of course, very young, fit people can take the approach that, for them as individuals, the virus is no more dangerous than the vaccine - possibly less so, for some. But then, they are accepting that they will increase the much more serious risk to most people, possibly including their family, neighbours or colleagues. They are also helping to increase the risk of another variant that might increase risk - including, potentially, for them.

 

There are some who argue that, while Covid vaccination seems low risk, we don't know what its long-term impacts might be. That's partly true, though scientists will have the knowledge to predict that to some extent. But it is also true of all medications, processed food and beverages, cars, planes etc. Do such people avoid taking heart/asthma pills, eating processed food or take-aways, drinking beer in pubs or taking trains, cars or planes due to unidentified long-term risk?

 

The rational arguments for getting vaccinated are overwhelmingly proven, even if, yes, there is a slight - but much lesser - risk in vaccination. But, even ignoring the more extreme anti-vax arguments, I think most who persist in rejecting vaccination do so for psychological, not rational reasons: irrational fear applied selectively to one particular thing put in the body, feelings of powerlessness and paranoia about those who hold political or economic power in the world etc. These psychological reasons underpin the wilful arrogance that says "I'm going to reject all arguments put to me, however rational. I'm a free individual. There's nothing you can say to convince me because I'm not going to listen with an open mind. I know best and my mind is closed".  

 

Anyway, hopefully once this current wave is over, we just might be close to a situation where Covid is low risk and endemic....and the good times can roll again. 

[st albans fox]

19 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

911 people are in mechanical ventilation beds.  If 39% have been vaccinated and 61% have not been vaccinated, then that means 355 have been vaccinated and 556 have not.  Ignoring meaningless decimals, so there may be a rounding difference of 1 from your figure.

 

Even if you're right that virtually no-one is in intensive care within 15 days of getting symptoms, and I need to go back to the week ending 20th December - where are they?  week end 13th December, there were 395k identified cases.  Week ending 20th December, 669k.  That's 274k extra cases, from over three weeks ago.  Number of people in mechanical ventilation beds was 900 on 13th December, 859 on 20th December, 911 now.  If even 1 in 1,000 of those extra cases needed mechanical ventilation, there would be 274 more people.  The earlier waves were far more serious than that.  So I repeat, this is not the same disease as it was 2 years ago.

I’m clearly a sh1t teacher dsr.  - you got your numbers the wrong way around on your original post - that’s all 

 

it’s clear that omicron is not the same impact virus as the Italian strain was originally - we have some treatments and experience now. The sheer numbers will make it a big problem for a short period. 

[bovril]

Those who think half measures can still "control the spread" of Omicron needs to take a look at numbers coming from other European countries.

[shade]

21 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

My problem with most of the people in your 1st category is their inconsistency. Most of them will have had other vaccines in the past and/or will have taken prescribed medication without scrutinising research into their safety. Most will eat processed food, possibly including take-aways, and will drink beer or tap water without cast-iron safety guarantees. Likewise, they'll get into a car, train or plane without personal knowledge of their safety. They'll take a small implicit risk.

 

Maybe there is a tiny minority who always eat fresh food sourced from identified farms, purify their water and research any car they get into or any pill they swallow or beer they drink. But most people trust that such things are safe or take a small calculated risk that they may not be, perhaps avoiding unhygenic take-aways and products/vehicles of dubious safety.

 

There's another category or sub-category I had more sympathy for initially: people who questioned the rapid development and safety of Covid vaccines specifically. I wouldn't have been brave enough to volunteer for the initial vaccine trials. But even that specific initial concern about Covid vaccines surely no longer applies. There is a mass of evidence that, while vaccination DOES entail a very small risk, the virus entails a massively larger risk for people overall. Of course, very young, fit people can take the approach that, for them as individuals, the virus is no more dangerous than the vaccine - possibly less so, for some. But then, they are accepting that they will increase the much more serious risk to most people, possibly including their family, neighbours or colleagues. They are also helping to increase the risk of another variant that might increase risk - including, potentially, for them.

 

There are some who argue that, while Covid vaccination seems low risk, we don't know what its long-term impacts might be. That's partly true, though scientists will have the knowledge to predict that to some extent. But it is also true of all medications, processed food and beverages, cars, planes etc. Do such people avoid taking heart/asthma pills, eating processed food or take-aways, drinking beer in pubs or taking trains, cars or planes due to unidentified long-term risk?

 

The rational arguments for getting vaccinated are overwhelmingly proven, even if, yes, there is a slight - but much lesser - risk in vaccination. But, even ignoring the more extreme anti-vax arguments, I think most who persist in rejecting vaccination do so for psychological, not rational reasons: irrational fear applied selectively to one particular thing put in the body, feelings of powerlessness and paranoia about those who hold political or economic power in the world etc. These psychological reasons underpin the wilful arrogance that says "I'm going to reject all arguments put to me, however rational. I'm a free individual. There's nothing you can say to convince me because I'm not going to listen with an open mind. I know best and my mind is closed".  

 

Anyway, hopefully once this current wave is over, we just might be close to a situation where Covid is low risk and endemic....and the good times can roll again. 

Impressive post mate. It's a risk calculation for everybody whether to get it, and I do agree that for most people the risk of not getting the vaccine is greater. The known risks of the vaccine are much less than the virus for me. My thought process was, I've done a lot to mitigate the risks of the virus to me and whilst I'll almost definitely be proven wrong, I'm not convinced the vaccine won't have longer term issues (even if for a minority of people).

 

When I saw that the vaccine COULD physically cause heart inflammation (however rare) and missed periods, I thought if it CAN physically do that, what else MIGHT it do long term. The evidence might be that the spike protein might not be toxic or have adverse effects, but it has the mechanism to do those things when it moves through the body, what else MAY happen. This isn't me misinforming, it's just explaining my thought process in the decision.

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

[HighPeakFox]

6 minutes ago, shade said:

Impressive post mate. It's a risk calculation for everybody whether to get it, and I do agree that for most people the risk of not getting the vaccine is greater. The known risks of the vaccine are much less than the virus for me. My thought process was, I've done a lot to mitigate the risks of the virus to me and whilst I'll almost definitely be proven wrong, I'm not convinced the vaccine won't have longer term issues (even if for a minority of people).

 

When I saw that the vaccine COULD physically cause heart inflammation (however rare) and missed periods, I thought if it CAN physically do that, what else MIGHT it do long term. The evidence might be that the spike protein might not be toxic or have adverse effects, but it has the mechanism to do those things when it moves through the body, what else MAY happen. This isn't me misinforming, it's just explaining my thought process in the decision.

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

I'd just like to say at this point, with sincerity, that if you are proven wrong that you are not seriously ill with Covid, or indeed anything else. 

 

Your point that we're all human is the most important one, after all. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

24 minutes ago, bovril said:

Those who think half measures can still "control the spread" of Omicron needs to take a look at numbers coming from other European countries.

Good job France introduced Covid passes everywhere and table service in restaurants 

[brucey]

11 minutes ago, shade said:

Impressive post mate. It's a risk calculation for everybody whether to get it, and I do agree that for most people the risk of not getting the vaccine is greater. The known risks of the vaccine are much less than the virus for me. My thought process was, I've done a lot to mitigate the risks of the virus to me and whilst I'll almost definitely be proven wrong, I'm not convinced the vaccine won't have longer term issues (even if for a minority of people).

 

When I saw that the vaccine COULD physically cause heart inflammation (however rare) and missed periods, I thought if it CAN physically do that, what else MIGHT it do long term. The evidence might be that the spike protein might not be toxic or have adverse effects, but it has the mechanism to do those things when it moves through the body, what else MAY happen. This isn't me misinforming, it's just explaining my thought process in the decision.

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

What about the long term issues post Covid infection? We already know that long Covid affects a much greater proportion of people, and to a greater degree, than the proportion affected by vaccination. What else MIGHT it do in the even longer term? As not just the spike protein, but also all of the other components of the virus moves through all the tissues in the body?

[Farrington fox]

21 minutes ago, shade said:

 

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

Sterimar does the trick!

[Farrington fox]

13 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Good job France introduced Covid passes everywhere and table service in restaurants 

What was their cases yesterday, 300k wasn't it. All those strict measures and they fair no better than us.

[shade]

13 minutes ago, brucey said:

What about the long term issues post Covid infection? We already know that long Covid affects a much greater proportion of people, and to a greater degree, than the proportion affected by vaccination. What else MIGHT it do in the even longer term? As not just the spike protein, but also all of the other components of the virus moves through all the tissues in the body?

I think both vaccinated and unvaccinated suffer long covid at similar levels?

[st albans fox]

26 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Good job France introduced Covid passes everywhere and table service in restaurants 

My guess is that their lower experience of actual infections across their population is responsible for higher case rates - natural immunity + vaccination is the strongest protection 

 

but I get the point that covid passes without any testing will struggle to control omicron spread 

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, shade said:

I think both vaccinated and unvaccinated suffer long covid at similar levels?

 A few things I’ve read seems to disagree with that.  It’s obvious that being hospitalised is more likely to lead to some long term issues (you must be quite poorly ) and being vaccinated sig reduces the likelihood of hospitalisation. 
 

that apart, I’m pretty sure that notable long covid problems are less widespread since the original vax prog was rolled out. 

[brucey]

2 minutes ago, shade said:

I think both vaccinated and unvaccinated suffer long covid at similar levels?

The vaccinated has less chance of getting infected in the first place (dependent on variant of course), and the larger studies show approx. 50% reduced chance of long Covid if they do get infected.

[Zear0]

44 minutes ago, shade said:

Impressive post mate. It's a risk calculation for everybody whether to get it, and I do agree that for most people the risk of not getting the vaccine is greater. The known risks of the vaccine are much less than the virus for me. My thought process was, I've done a lot to mitigate the risks of the virus to me and whilst I'll almost definitely be proven wrong, I'm not convinced the vaccine won't have longer term issues (even if for a minority of people).

 

When I saw that the vaccine COULD physically cause heart inflammation (however rare) and missed periods, I thought if it CAN physically do that, what else MIGHT it do long term. The evidence might be that the spike protein might not be toxic or have adverse effects, but it has the mechanism to do those things when it moves through the body, what else MAY happen. This isn't me misinforming, it's just explaining my thought process in the decision.

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

Out of interest, how do you know it was Delta?

[shade]

12 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Out of interest, how do you know it was Delta?

Not definitively, but the timeline of when my wife first got infected towards the end/November start of December and we both lost taste and smell completely which apparently is far more likely in delta. Not to belittle Omicron, but the severity of her symptoms considering she's vaccinated and the way it went to her chest definitely fit the Delta symptoms.

 

I'm sure she received something saying she would be notified if it was Omicron but never heard anything back, I'll check that.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, shade said:

Do you feel that the fear of the virus is logical for most people? I see healthy, affluent, slim 30 something year olds rushing to book their third injection in 12 months because of the constant fearmongering in the media. That fear should be a good thing for self preservation this time.

 

edit: I only weirdly mentioned affluent because I didn't realise the effect of poverty on likelihood to be admitted to ICU (I guess they're more likely to have comorbidities). yes guys, sadly I've got another drum to bang lol, another thing to add to my list of reasons for not getting it.

You've gone into more detail since you posted this about your risk assessment, which is welcome and I do see where you're coming from.

 

However,  with risk of "long" Covid and more importantly the risk of an undiscovered preexisting condition being exposed by Covid in nasty fashion, I would say that yes, it is statistically right for almost everyone, even those outwardly "healthy" to fear the virus more than the vaccine when the numbers are looked at closely. However,  Omicron might be changing that as we speak, soon we might know more on that.

 

I guess, however, that my point is intended to be further reaching than just Covid.  What we're seeing with that is just one part of what seems to be an increasing culture of misguidance, misinformation and mistrust of the scientific method and thus our understanding of the world and universe. This is fueled by social media, often in the name of "freedom" and that "all opinions are valid". Well, they are, but all views of *fact* are not, and that the waters are being muddied on that frankly terrifies me, because nature only respects facts, Covid has already shown that such lack of respect can be highly consequential and the next time a natural crisis arrives (it may already be at our doorstep), it might not just be five million lives and (relatively) small damage to society that is the price to pay for not respecting facts and taking decisive, unified action upon them.

[brucey]

This meta-analysis on long Covid hasn't included vaccination status in the analysis. But it shows how common and significant long Covid is. Multiply this by the many millions infected, and it's a massive issue that few are talking about. 

 

 

 

 

[foxes1988]

1 hour ago, shade said:

Impressive post mate. It's a risk calculation for everybody whether to get it, and I do agree that for most people the risk of not getting the vaccine is greater. The known risks of the vaccine are much less than the virus for me. My thought process was, I've done a lot to mitigate the risks of the virus to me and whilst I'll almost definitely be proven wrong, I'm not convinced the vaccine won't have longer term issues (even if for a minority of people).

 

When I saw that the vaccine COULD physically cause heart inflammation (however rare) and missed periods, I thought if it CAN physically do that, what else MIGHT it do long term. The evidence might be that the spike protein might not be toxic or have adverse effects, but it has the mechanism to do those things when it moves through the body, what else MAY happen. This isn't me misinforming, it's just explaining my thought process in the decision.

 

As I've said before, I caught delta a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised by how mild it was for me, it could be luck or I would argue more likely I've done lots to mitigate the impact that I've mentioned before so won't go in to. One thing I haven't mentioned before is as soon as I got the positive, I started to gargle with salt water and used a saline solution with a nasal irrigator.

 

I can understand why people were worried about the vaccines when they first came out but side effects from these vaccines are known.  After over a year of administering Billions of doses I think we can all be certain enough to categorically say they are safe.  There was a small risk with AZ but it was so much less risky having the vaccine then catching covid however the regulatory authorities then erred on the side of caution which I think is also very reassuring.

 

Both short and Long term side effects from vaccines almost always appear within the first few months.  For example some people developed narcolepsy when receiving a vaccine for H1N1 in around 2009/2010  (they did stop using this particular vaccine).  Even though this was a long term side effect it developed quickly after having the vaccine not in 2/5/10 years time.  I think sometimes people assume that they could develop side effects far into the future like if you were taking daily medication but the vaccine itself is only actually in the body for a few days. These mRNA vaccines supposedly degrade and get eliminated even faster then traditional vaccines further reducing the risk of side effects.

 

Having said all that I'm not one of these that thinks forcing people to get vaccinated is helpful either and respect your choice not to have it.

Edited 6 January 2022 by foxes1988

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, Line-X said:

How many though? It really only takes a small number to proclaim something sensationalist and people will tend to seize upon it.  No different to the appeal to authority, cherry picking and confirmation bias on this thread which some embrace because it reinforces an opinion (don't search solely for evidence of what you want to find - look for evidence to the contrary). As I and others have encouraged members to do, avoid populist social media outlets - you're only ever one step away from the Mike Yeadons or worse still, the Andrew Wakefields of this world. Embrace the community of practice, the entire field - yes of course there will be differences, but listen to what the science tells you, not the scientists per se. It is the mission of the former to resolve these differences, establish the truth and to question...to falsify itself which is how it advances. A true scientist will invite such scrutiny and through this entertains the prospect of being corrected, having their theories revised, or being outright wrong. 

 

Ironically, our "way out of this mess" is through science. The problem is, opinion, individuals, politics, agendas and constructs invariably obfuscate and get in the way. 

This.  For the sake of the future.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Some of the graphs coming out of this recently are so strange.

 

Out of interest as well, if someone is in hospital with Omicron (no other injuries, caught it out and about and was taken in because of purely Omicron) and they don't need a ventilator, what treatment do they receive? Is it just rest and comfort plus the standard medication? 

[brucey]

8 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Some of the graphs coming out of this recently are so strange.

 

Out of interest as well, if someone is in hospital with Omicron (no other injuries, caught it out and about and was taken in because of purely Omicron) and they don't need a ventilator, what treatment do they receive? Is it just rest and comfort plus the standard medication? 

High flow oxygen / non invasive ventilation (basically a high powered mask, not a proper ventilator) 

[danny.]

It's been 4 weeks since I had my 2nd Pfizer and still feeling really wiped out  I could happily sleep 20 hours a day, trying to work (desk job) is really tough

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, danny. said:

It's been 4 weeks since I had my 2nd Pfizer and still feeling really wiped out  I could happily sleep 20 hours a day, trying to work (desk job) is really tough

did you have covid before the jabs  ??

[danny.]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

did you have covid before the jabs  ??

Yea, I think so. But it was in Feb 2020 so no testing.