Coronavirus Thread

[SpacedX]

42 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Here you go again.  A Toby Young website so press "ignore" and deflect.  

I would absolutely recommend the above yes. The most sensible thing you have posted on this thread in the last two years. Regarding 'deflection' - that's some hefty projection at work there pal.

 

42 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

You fail to respond to the cited links in the document which have nothing to do with him and discuss a valid point.  But as usual, Toby Young, dismiss.

I'm simply very, very weary of revisiting the same well trodden ground and debunking the repeated recycled populist misconceptions and claims from the same few farcical circular lay opinion pieces and politically driven websites over and over and over again - frankly it's exhausting. This thread is testimony to the fact that contrary to your claim, I and others have previously made a point of objectively responding in detail and exposing your barrage of confirmation bias, quote mining and cherry picked 'cited links' and comprehensively highlighting the deliberate deception in your selective 'sources' together with the vested interests and anti-science behind them, but I now appreciate the futility in this. 

 

Fail to respond? Laughable, coming from someone that still refuses to acknowledge, discuss and remains in complete denial of their embarrassing promotion/advocacy of Mike Yeadon's ludicrous disinformation on this thread. 

 

Sigh, if you would like me to take apart your latest piece of populist junk, then I guess it won't take that much time and effort. But on the proviso that you respond constructively, as opposed to your default laughing emoji defence mechanism. That is actually something that you initially did, - attempted to debate, even at one stage having the integrity to concede that you had the timeline of the first lockdown completely to cock and retracting one of your claims in the process which I respected. Not sure whether your rabid keyboard pounding foam at the mouth tirades against Neil Ferguson took a serious toll at some stage? 

 

In the meantime, why don't you see what the field of epidemiology has to say about the science of infection control as opposed to solely reinforcing your views through Toby Young's spiteful polemic and outrage inciting editorial policy? Perhaps it would be more effective if you challenged your own one dimensional subjective viewpoint from time to time instead of the same few on here having to do so over and over again?

 

Why not start by seeing if you can spot the flaws in your logical reasoning here...

 

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Also, compare rates now to last year.  The peak appears to have happened at almost the same time.

 

In other words, restrictions are ineffective at controlling case rates, cases rates will do their own thing irrespective of restrictions.  

 

Yet lockdowns and restrictions are effective... mmmmm.

 

Because if you can't, then how do you expect your posts and your 'sources' (as ludicrous as they tend to be) to be anything other than immediately dismissed by any rational individual reading this thread?

[shade]

https://orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted-all-cause-mortality?r=zp558&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

 

 

His conclusions.

 

The driving motivation in doing science is being surprised and to find the unexpected and having views challenged by the data. In order to do that, one needs an open mind and the willingness to adapt conclusions based on new insight and not to do it the other way around (pushing a narrative).

La grande surprise, the main surprise was France. But also Switzerland.

 

Expectation / hypothesis to find a negative correlation with lockdowns was challenged by data which told us a different story and surprised us with a much stronger apparent underlying cause: obesity.

 

2021: Neither a positive nor negative impact of the vaccine can be seen. At least it’s not of any relevant dominance on a yearly base level. Other causes dominate. Probably lockdown, or random seasonality as also lockdown hardliners like France and Spain are doing ok for now. Detailed time window analysis by age may find 2nd order some effects. Maybe we will see the male heart (post dose 2) problems for the 18-30 years cohort (in a time window analysis). And we should see some benefit in 70+. That are the 2 trails. In the 30-70 year cohort it likely impossible to see anything.

 

Sweden is outperforming in 2021 (even all it’s neighbours), despite the Sweden denial in MSM.  They could have done better in elderly care settings to flatten the sharp peak in 2020. But nobody else managed that either.

 

What is interesting is that at least in the wealthy countries, the expected lockdown harm doesn’t show up in all-cause mortality. Rich countries like Norway, Switzerland and France can obviously afford such (to my view counterproductive) measures. I still expect, that it’s devastating in poor countries like India and Africa.

 

2020: The age adjusted mortality demonstrates the overreaction in the Covid-19 crises.

 

The observed excess mortality in Austria and Netherlands, is dominated by mortality in the elderly age bins. Those are 95 % vaccinated like in Sweden, Spain and France. The vaccine doesn’t reduce or increase all cause mortality. It isn’t the underlying root cause. QR passports and the one dimensional panic driven C19 health focus has to stop.

Edited 13 January 2022 by shade

[st albans fox]

11 minutes ago, shade said:

https://orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted-all-cause-mortality?r=zp558&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

 

 

His conclusions.

 

The driving motivation in doing science is being surprised and to find the unexpected and having views challenged by the data. In order to do that, one needs an open mind and the willingness to adapt conclusions based on new insight and not to do it the other way around (pushing a narrative).

La grande surprise, the main surprise was France. But also Switzerland.

 

Expectation / hypothesis to find a negative correlation with lockdowns was challenged by data which told us a different story and surprised us with a much stronger apparent underlying cause: obesity.

 

2021: Neither a positive nor negative impact of the vaccine can be seen. At least it’s not of any relevant dominance on a yearly base level. Other causes dominate. Probably lockdown, or random seasonality as also lockdown hardliners like France and Spain are doing ok for now. Detailed time window analysis by age may find 2nd order some effects. Maybe we will see the male heart (post dose 2) problems for the 18-30 years cohort (in a time window analysis). And we should see some benefit in 70+. That are the 2 trails. In the 30-70 year cohort it likely impossible to see anything.

 

Sweden is outperforming in 2021 (even all it’s neighbours), despite the Sweden denial in MSM.  They could have done better in elderly care settings to flatten the sharp peak in 2020. But nobody else managed that either.

 

What is interesting is that at least in the wealthy countries, the expected lockdown harm doesn’t show up in all-cause mortality. Rich countries like Norway, Switzerland and France can obviously afford such (to my view counterproductive) measures. I still expect, that it’s devastating in poor countries like India and Africa.

 

2020: The age adjusted mortality demonstrates the overreaction in the Covid-19 crises.

 

The observed excess mortality in Austria and Netherlands, is dominated by mortality in the elderly age bins. Those are 95 % vaccinated like in Sweden, Spain and France. The vaccine doesn’t reduce or increase all cause mortality. It isn’t the underlying root cause. QR passports and the one dimensional panic driven C19 health focus has to stop.

The comments on the third map reveal that this probably isn’t an unbiased analysis 

[Farrington fox]

32 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

With omicron, unless restrictions are more draconian (with population asked to stay at home for several weeks), you may be right 

 

with delta, alpha and the original wuhan strain, you are surely wrong 

If there was a straw poll on here. I’m exclusively wrong 🤦🏼‍♂️ But, in light of the Downing street shenanigans, I’m pretty sure I read somewhere today that a scientist was quoted as saying restrictions during Alpha may have been to tougher than were needed. So who knows. 

[st albans fox]

Just now, Farrington fox said:

If there was a straw poll on here. I’m exclusively wrong 🤦🏼‍♂️ But, in light of the Downing street shenanigans, I’m pretty sure I read somewhere today that a scientist was quoted as saying restrictions during Alpha may have been to tougher than were needed. So who knows. 

I believe that the report you are referring to was considering the length of the lockdown through may and that on reflection, it likely went on too long.  The same could well be said of March 2021. 

[shade]

8 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The comments on the third map reveal that this probably isn’t an unbiased analysis 

He claims it's born out of frustration to be fair.

Edited 13 January 2022 by shade

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, shade said:

He claims it's born out of frustration to be fair.

But it reveals a bias

stats are so often interpreted to support a pre conceived pov 

[shade]

Just now, st albans fox said:

But it reveals a bias

stats are so often interpreted to support a pre conceived pov 

maybe, but can we get a bit more serious for a minute, I know it's the daily mail but this is the most terrifying thing I've read in 2 long, hard years...

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397797/Man-claims-lost-1-5-inches-length-penis-Covid-vascular-damage.html

[st albans fox]

Just now, shade said:

maybe, but can we get a bit more serious for a minute, I know it's the daily mail but this is the most terrifying thing I've read in 2 long, hard years...

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397797/Man-claims-lost-1-5-inches-length-penis-Covid-vascular-damage.html

Brings a whole new meaning to needing a booster …..

[reporterpenguin]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Brings a whole new meaning to needing a booster …..

And that it’s just a little pr1ck…

Edited 13 January 2022 by reporterpenguin

[Vlad the Fox]

13 minutes ago, shade said:

maybe, but can we get a bit more serious for a minute, I know it's the daily mail but this is the most terrifying thing I've read in 2 long, hard years...

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397797/Man-claims-lost-1-5-inches-length-penis-Covid-vascular-damage.html

Dirty git got bored and wore it out during furlough. 

[WigstonWanderer]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
 

Looking at the 3 charts of hospitalisation rate, Covid patients in hospital, and Covid patients in ICU, the first 2 appear to show a flattening off of general Covid pressure on hospitals, and the third shows no uptick despite the spike in hospitalisations and Covid cases. I think I’m right that sufficient time has elapsed to expect a signal in the ICU figures if one was going to occur. This all supports the view this wave has been much less dangerous than previous ones, and may be coming to an end in the UK.

 

Presumably this is a result of protection afforded by vaccines/previous infection, and Omicron being inherently less dangerous. My guess is that it’s the former that’s doing the heavy lifting here.

 

Anyway, very welcome trends that may signal that we’re on the last lap (or at least you in the UK are). This assumes that getting infected by Omicron does indeed give effective future protection, and that no new nastier strains evolve.

Edited 13 January 2022 by WigstonWanderer

[danny.]

2 hours ago, shade said:

maybe, but can we get a bit more serious for a minute, I know it's the daily mail but this is the most terrifying thing I've read in 2 long, hard years...

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10397797/Man-claims-lost-1-5-inches-length-penis-Covid-vascular-damage.html

He simply needs to get married and he won’t need his penis anymore. 

[leicsmac]

12 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

If the independent science body was given a very strict political remit on what they do, perhaps.  But it's certainly a non-starter to give a scientific body powers sufficient so that, if they decided elimintation of covid was all-important, they could order lockdown for years on end.  If you want anyone, scientists or no, to work out what on balance is the best thing to do re. covid, taking into account conflicting aspects such as deaths, illnesses, children's education, the well-being of the population especially those with dementia, and the overall economy both national and global, and come up with a solution - then the scientists must by definition be making political decisions.

And that's a reason why people wouldn't go for it, yes. And it's a fair one.

 

However, I would submit that there are natural issues far more far-reaching than Covid that will come to the fore one day (perhaps one day very soon) and attempting to deal with them in the manner described above and the way attempted with Covid, while well-meaning, will not end well. Especially when, on the evidence of this thread, we may well have a great many people (and therefore a voter base that appeals to politicians) that can't or won't understand the magnitude of the threat until it is too late, viz. right outside their door. What do we do then?

 

I'm leery about giving too much unaccountable power to any one person or body of people because Acton had it right, but there has to be a better political way of dealing with natural crises than the way most of the world has used for Covid, or after the next crisis it may well be the only one with power are the ones with big guns, a fortress, and canned food, Mad Max style.

 

Sometimes, there simply is no balance between economics and whatever else and the threat simply takes precedence as it renders all other human concerns moot. Quick example: asteroid impact threat. A little bit slower example: climate change (and look at what we're *not* doing about that).

Edited 14 January 2022 by leicsmac

[WigstonWanderer]

Just noticed that the 7 day average of Covid deaths (headline “within 28 days” figure) has doubled since the onset of Omicron. Coupled with the lack of any corresponding increase in ICU Covid occupancy, this suggests that half of these deaths really are people dying with Covid, rather than from it.

 

This is different to previous waves (perhaps unsurprisingly in view of the much higher percentage of the population infected at any one time), and it will be interesting to see if the ONS stats support this when they become available.

Edited 14 January 2022 by WigstonWanderer

[leicsmac]

4 hours ago, st albans fox said:

The comments on the third map reveal that this probably isn’t an unbiased analysis 

Taking the word of single un-peer-reviewed mavericks above that of the more reliable scientific consensus seems to be in vogue on this thread and out in the wider world too.

 

People are of course free to believe what they wish, but I'm likewise free to point out that such courses of action will not end well and perhaps in the interests of self-preservation as well as preservation of human civilisation, a more considered approach that actually trusts the scientific method is called for.

 

 

[shade]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Taking the word of single un-peer-reviewed mavericks above that of the more reliable scientific consensus seems to be in vogue on this thread and out in the wider world too.

 

People are of course free to believe what they wish, but I'm likewise free to point out that such courses of action will not end well and perhaps in the interests of self-preservation as well as preservation of human civilisation, a more considered approach that actually trusts the scientific method is called for.

 

 

yes but you're forgetting that it aligns perfectly with my viewpoint that obesity is the real driver of this, therefore I will follow whatever the renegade maverick says. 😂

[Soup]

If anyone else is against Covid Mandates or would like more informed consent here's a few links. 

https://nhs100k.com/

https://togetherdeclaration.org/

[shade]

Interesting to see them trying to "deplatform" Joe Rogan.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, shade said:

yes but you're forgetting that it aligns perfectly with my viewpoint that obesity is the real driver of this, therefore I will follow whatever the renegade maverick says. 😂

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, to be sure. Everyone is susceptible. That's why we have the peer review process. Or one of the reasons anyway.

[leicsmac]

47 minutes ago, Soup said:

If anyone else is against Covid Mandates or would like more informed consent here's a few links. 

https://nhs100k.com/

https://togetherdeclaration.org/

...does it say who is doing the informing and by what legitimate authority they do so?

[LCFCCHRIS]

1 hour ago, Soup said:

If anyone else is against Covid Mandates or would like more informed consent here's a few links. 

https://nhs100k.com/

https://togetherdeclaration.org/

Cheers. Be a shame if those on the "front lines" during the worst of the pandemic to then be sacked when it's seemingly getting better.

[Soup]

27 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

...does it say who is doing the informing and by what legitimate authority they do so?

Probably not Pfizer

[leicsmac]

21 minutes ago, Soup said:

Probably not Pfizer

Probably and hopefully not. But I'd appreciate an answer to the question, if that isn't too much trouble.

[phoneticerror]

Well, after 2 and a half months of clear health, we have Covid back in the house yet again. 

Edited 14 January 2022 by phoneticerror