Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Eh?

And apparently we were the better team on Wednesday too …….

[fox_favourite]

5 hours ago, SecretPro said:

I'm negative for covid but currently suffering from a cold that feels like actual death, the worst I've ever had. Sure there has to be a link there with wearing a mask and not exposing yourself to anything for two years. I feel like absolute shite.

I know of 4 people who had the same. All went to PCR tests and negative. All described it the same as you. It’s known as a super cold. Could be the same but worth checking though as it could be the Covid

[fox_favourite]

4 hours ago, chapero82 said:

I would get a PCR test if you haven’t already as I was negative on LFT for 8 days but positive on the PCR

8 days? Really? I was positive on a LFT before any symptoms showed.

 

I assume you went for a PCR test prior to day 8?

[chapero82]

8 minutes ago, fox_favourite said:

8 days? Really? I was positive on a LFT before any symptoms showed.

 

I assume you went for a PCR test prior to day 8?

I did yes because my eldest had tested positive and I started to get the exact same symptoms as him do I decided to do a PCR with him and I tested positive and I felt really rough with it so I was shocked I was negative for so long.. it did seem like there was a delay with me on the LFT as I was positive far longer after that on the LFT’s 

[Leicester_Loyal]

5 hours ago, Unabomber said:

Yeah this blows my mind. Someone who works in healthcare refusing the vaccine is crazy and makes no sense. You think they would be well informed etc and not buy in to any of the bollocks conspiracy theories being spouted. 

Of all the people I know who haven't got the vaccine, only probably 10% or so are into any sort of 'bollocks conspiracy theories'. The rest all have reasons which although I don't 100% agree with or understand totally, are actual genuine reasons in my mind.

 

Labelling these who don't want the vaccine as being into 'bollocks conspiracy theories' automatically puts them on the defensive, whereas if we want them to take the vaccine we should be offering them all the information and allowing them to weigh up the benefits vs. negatives to themselves personally.

[fox_favourite]

14 minutes ago, chapero82 said:

I did yes because my eldest had tested positive and I started to get the exact same symptoms as him do I decided to do a PCR with him and I tested positive and I felt really rough with it so I was shocked I was negative for so long.. it did seem like there was a delay with me on the LFT as I was positive far longer after that on the LFT’s 

Ah. I wasn’t judging it was more the shock it was 8 days until a positive. 
 

I was shocked mine was positive as I didn’t have any symptoms. I take LFTs regularly for work anyway. 

[fuchsntf]

42 minutes ago, fox_favourite said:

I know of 4 people who had the same. All went to PCR tests and negative. All described it the same as you. It’s known as a super cold. Could be the same but worth checking though as it could be the Covid

Yes my Daughters Family ( 4) here in Germany have come down with the same thing,exactly at the Time ,that where they Live Darmstadt have the worse

Covid-cases. But all Tests shown negative....

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

What's this 6000 number I've read about being how many people have actually died of covid? Is that accurate? 

[st albans fox]

47 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

What's this 6000 number I've read about being how many people have actually died of covid? Is that accurate? 

 

dunno but I suggest a newspaper like the guardian will be reliable 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/16/what-do-we-know-about-people-who-died-covid-uk

[FoxesDeb]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Of all the people I know who haven't got the vaccine, only probably 10% or so are into any sort of 'bollocks conspiracy theories'. The rest all have reasons which although I don't 100% agree with or understand totally, are actual genuine reasons in my mind.

 

Labelling these who don't want the vaccine as being into 'bollocks conspiracy theories' automatically puts them on the defensive, whereas if we want them to take the vaccine we should be offering them all the information and allowing them to weigh up the benefits vs. negatives to themselves personally.

Yeah that's worked well in this thread over the last year or so 

[Leicester_Loyal]

9 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Yeah that's worked well in this thread over the last year or so 

To be fair in some cases it has worked, but obviously months and months ago, back when the vaccines when new onto the scene.

 

If you haven't had the vaccine now, you're very unlikely to change your mind IMO, regardless of the arguments put forward.

[Parafox]

1 hour ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

What's this 6000 number I've read about being how many people have actually died of covid? Is that accurate? 

I wonder if anyone knows the actual figure of those who died only from Covid because the figures used include all those who died from whatever cause within 28 days of a positive test. We'll never know and I don't understand why the NHS/Gov have chosen to use the measure of Covid deaths to include "from any other reason" 

[FoxesDeb]

11 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

To be fair in some cases it has worked, but obviously months and months ago, back when the vaccines when new onto the scene.

 

If you haven't had the vaccine now, you're very unlikely to change your mind IMO, regardless of the arguments put forward.

I've got FT covid thread fatigue, probably to the relief of some of you 

 

I honestly can't remember anyone here changing their mind about the vaccine, all I've seen in recent months are people like you say who probably won't change their mind despite all the evidence presented to them. 

 

But the reason why I continue to refute all the nonsense and let's be honest, absolute fvcking bullshit posted on here at times, which has certainly increased recently, is for the benefit of the lurkers. I'm not expecting to change the minds of the die hard science deniers who post here, their minds were made up long ago. But for every one of us actively posting here there are potentially hundreds of readers, who unless it's challenged, might just believe some of the absurdity posted. 

[Parafox]

12 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

I've got FT covid thread fatigue, probably to the relief of some of you 

 

I honestly can't remember anyone here changing their mind about the vaccine, all I've seen in recent months are people like you say who probably won't change their mind despite all the evidence presented to them. 

 

But the reason why I continue to refute all the nonsense and let's be honest, absolute fvcking bullshit posted on here at times, which has certainly increased recently, is for the benefit of the lurkers. I'm not expecting to change the minds of the die hard science deniers who post here, their minds were made up long ago. But for every one of us actively posting here there are potentially hundreds of readers, who unless it's challenged, might just believe some of the absurdity posted. 

[ARM1968]

42 minutes ago, Parafox said:

I wonder if anyone knows the actual figure of those who died only from Covid because the figures used include all those who died from whatever cause within 28 days of a positive test. We'll never know and I don't understand why the NHS/Gov have chosen to use the measure of Covid deaths to include "from any other reason" 

According to the ONS around 17,500 actually from Covid alone. 

[Soup]

4 minutes ago, ARM1968 said:

According to the ONS around 17,500 actually from Covid alone. 

Yeah I thought this, is it true? I posted the ONS link on here  a week ago and it was deleted for some reason. 

[Parafox]

1 minute ago, ARM1968 said:

According to the ONS around 17,500 actually from Covid alone. 

Yep. I googled it.

The direct cause of death from flu is well published ever year. Around 25,000 per year.

They don't ever say (whatever) the cause of death is within 28 days of contracting 'flu.

Doesn't make sense.

[ARM1968]

2 minutes ago, Soup said:

Yeah I thought this, is it true? I posted the ONS link on here  a week ago and it was deleted for some reason. 

The figure was obtained under the FOIA. Everything I have seen and read suggests that it is accurate. I am not sure why your link would have been deleted. It’s the best we have for a figure at the moment. 

[kyleolly]

Now on the news when giving the daily covid death number, the news reporter gives a number for covid deaths and then says some of these people didn't die of covid 🤔

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Big difference between 150k+ and 17,500. That's over 2+ years as well, it does make you think all can't be what it seems with the powers that be inflating death figures, but to what end? 

[Stivo]

13 hours ago, Parafox said:

Yep. I googled it.

The direct cause of death from flu is well published ever year. Around 25,000 per year.

They don't ever say (whatever) the cause of death is within 28 days of contracting 'flu.

Doesn't make sense.

If you raise a freedom of information request for the number of people who died solely of flu with no comorbidities the figure will be tiny. - why?

Because flu mainly kills the old and old people typically have other conditions such as raised blood pressure, cancer etc etc and also  flu very commonly causes pneumonia which will be listed on the death certificate.

 

 So ( by exactly the same logic as the daft covid number going around ) you will find that  the vast majority of people who died of flu didn’t die of flu…

 

 We don’t have a flu dashboard or test for flu as it doesn’t hospitalise enough people to seriously threaten the nhs.

 

The 28 day figure for covid is easy to calculate and has until recently been very accurate.  Death certificates take a week to 10 days so although the figures are on the dashboard they are only updated 3x a month.

 

For a representative sample of the population we would expect about 0.08% to die  a month.  So the proportion who will die within 28 days of any event ( gas meter reading, car mot, covid positive test result) is 0.08%.
 

So if 50,000 people test positive for covid we would expect 40 to die of somethIng else within the next 28 days ( the famous car crash included).

Before vaccines this caused a  very small error ( perhaps 3% overestimate)  in the 28 day death figures.  
 

I would no longer argue for keeping the 28 figure but if you compare on the dashboard the ratio of 28 day deaths to death certificate deaths the ratio has remained close to 1.

 

Edited 23 January 2022 by Stivo

[danny.]

2 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

I've got FT covid thread fatigue, probably to the relief of some of you 

 

I honestly can't remember anyone here changing their mind about the vaccine, all I've seen in recent months are people like you say who probably won't change their mind despite all the evidence presented to them. 

 

But the reason why I continue to refute all the nonsense and let's be honest, absolute fvcking bullshit posted on here at times, which has certainly increased recently, is for the benefit of the lurkers. I'm not expecting to change the minds of the die hard science deniers who post here, their minds were made up long ago. But for every one of us actively posting here there are potentially hundreds of readers, who unless it's challenged, might just believe some of the absurdity posted. 

I did, I was very against it for quite a while and then changed my mind late last year and got double jabbed. But the second one made me really ill so sorta regret that now 😅 don't think I'll be having the booster, but fortunately it seems Covid is on the way out to something more mild and endemic

[WigstonWanderer]

On 13/01/2022 at 04:06, WigstonWanderer said:

The ONS stats take much longer to produce and are therefore delayed.

 

Edit:

 

Here’s a link to November data and some contextual explanation

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/november2021

 

Deaths due to COVID-19 registered in November 2021

The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death, and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide.

Since March 2020 (when the first deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) were registered in England and Wales), where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate it was the underlying cause of death in most cases (88.6% in England, 87.2% in Wales). For more information on our definition of COVID-19 deaths, see Section 10: Measuring the data.

!

In this bulletin, we use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19, and we use the term "involving COVID-19" when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not. 

Of the 48,180 deaths registered in November 2021 in England, 6.6% (3,185 deaths) were due to COVID-19, a larger proportion than in October 2021 (5.6%). Including all deaths involving COVID-19 (3,752 deaths), this percentage increases to 7.8% of all deaths in England in November 2021.

In Wales, 9.0% of the 3,344 deaths registered in November 2021 were due to COVID-19 (302 deaths), a smaller proportion than in October 2021 (9.5%). Including all deaths involving COVID-19 (360 deaths), this percentage increases to 10.8% of all deaths in Wales.

 

 

Don’t like quoting myself, but this post from a week or so back seems relevant to the discussion about deaths due to, or involving Covid.

 

The “only ~17,500 deaths due to Covid alone” figure mentioned in a post above, is pretty much irrelevant I’d have thought, if the ONS specifically state that in November alone there were 3,185 deaths actually due to Covid (3,752 deaths involving Covid). They appear to have changed their measure precisely because of divergence between the two definitions in recent months when Covid is more widespread.

 

I believe the cumulative excess deaths since the start of the pandemic in the UK now stands at about 150k, in reasonable agreement with the ONS count.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

(Scroll down to the “Estimated excess mortality from The Economist“, and change the country to UK).

 

Excess deaths is probably the best measure of the overall effect of the pandemic, but will include knock on effects such as suicides due to the pandemic increasing the count, offset by reductions in deaths due to motor accidents that never happened due to lockdown, for instance.

Edited 23 January 2022 by WigstonWanderer

[pazzerfox]

11 hours ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Big difference between 150k+ and 17,500. That's over 2+ years as well, it does make you think all can't be what it seems with the powers that be inflating death figures, but to what end? 

Things like this help fuel the conspiracy doesn't it? The amount of nonsense modelling that has proved to be an absolute mile away from actuality, the constant fear mongering, the lies from Parliament and the complete disregard for their own rules! Makes me quite angry and makes people question everything. 

[st albans fox]

27 minutes ago, pazzerfox said:

Things like this help fuel the conspiracy doesn't it? The amount of nonsense modelling that has proved to be an absolute mile away from actuality, the constant fear mongering, the lies from Parliament and the complete disregard for their own rules! Makes me quite angry and makes people question everything. 

Read WW’s post above yours 

 

even in a period where so much physical activity was prohibited, where we travelled so much less around, excess deaths are 175k - that’s what we need to look at. Everything else is subject to manipulation by whoever wants to make a point based on their bias or pre determined opinion.