Coronavirus Thread

[Dr The Singh]

15 minutes ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

Has anything changed recently? My partners auntie and her 4 children arrived in the uk at the weekend from St George, Utah. 

I think so, you can now take a PCR test while in quarantine, so effectively wiping out quarantine.  My neighbours sister is over from Buffalo, he was telling me.

[Guest Kopfkino]

Was hoping it got delayed, got a stag do the first weekend after the lifting and it now includes some clubs reopening party. Don’t think I’ve enjoyed going to a nightclub since I was 20 and the last thing I want to do is go into one now surrounded by uncouth diseased people

[reynard]

5 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

And they say it doesn’t effect the young. Sad to here that.
 

Surely removing all restrictions will cause a situation where a new variant could/will form, which could be a massive game changer. Wasn’t the Delta variant a variation of the Alpha one when it spread round India? Might be wrong but I’m sure I read that some where 

 

 

This all seems like a big science experiment but without thought. 
 

 

 

Truth is it does and not always the overweight or those with underlying health conditions.

In a recent interview GB tennis player Maia Lumsden (mid ranking pro in her mid 20s so physically in good shape) revealed

On returning from Istanbul last year she started feeling unwell and tested positive for covid. She says it has taken months for her health to improve been pretty much bed bound. She was fearful her tennis career was over, as walking up the stairs saw her heart rate go up to 160. Every time she started to feel better she tried to do light exercise but she'd have a relapse and it would send her back to bed.

"The first few months were really difficult because I was stuck in bed and couldn't do anything," she says.

"It was pretty scary because no one could tell me when things were going to get better and it was basically just a waiting game. That was the hardest thing, not having any timeline for recovery.

"I definitely had moments when I wondered if I'd ever get back playing. When I couldn't see any improvement, I really wondered if I would ever get back."

She has returned to light training but is taking things slowly to avoid a relapse.

 

And you are  correct. This is basically a big experiment that is going to take place in England. We are going to see massive hikes in the numbers of infections across the country and hope that vaccines remain effective in preventing hospitalisations but with virtually no knowledge about the potential long term effects of even short term exposure to the virus.

Of course society needs to learn to live and cope with this illness but it is still a gamble.  I note that Israel has now returned to compelling people to wear masks in certain situations having previously stated it wasn't required.

I think there is a fair chance that some restrictions will come back later in the year.

[Buce]

 

Why living with Covid would not be the same as flu:

 

As England prepares to ease coronavirus restrictions further, the messaging from ministers has changed. We have reached, it seems, a tipping point in the pandemic where rules will be replaced by personal decisions. The mantra now is about living with coronavirus, much as we do with seasonal flu.

The pandemic has invited countless comparisons between coronavirus and influenza and the diseases do have some features in common. Both are contagious, potentially lethal respiratory viruses. They can spread through aerosols, droplets and contaminated surfaces. And they share some of the same symptoms in the form of fever, cough, headaches and fatigue. In the winter ahead, one challenge the NHS faces is separating the Covid patients from the flu cases.

 

But there are striking differences between coronavirus and flu that matter for public health. Coronavirus spreads faster than influenza and can cause far more serious illness. The symptoms of coronavirus can take longer to show, and people tend to be contagious for longer, making them more prone to passing it on.

Seasonal influenza has been around long enough that previous infection and protection from vaccines bear down on cases and deaths. Analysis of previous influenza outbreaks suggests that the R value for seasonal flu – the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to – averages about 1.28. This means a group of four people with flu might pass the virus on to five more.

Coronavirus spreads more easily than that. For the Delta variant now surging around the world, R is estimated at about seven, so in the absence of vaccines and other interventions, a single case would infect on average seven others. As vaccination programmes push on and the virus continues to spread, immunity to coronavirus will drive R down, but how low is a moot point.

Coronavirus is more lethal than influenza, largely because vulnerability to the disease rockets in older people. Seasonal influenza killed an estimated 44,505 people in England during the three combined flu seasons from 2015-16 to 2018-19. That number died from Covid in England in the first nine weeks of 2021. A major difference is that the flu figure takes into account the protection of influenza vaccines, where 50% effectiveness is considered good.

Coronavirus vaccines should have a greater proportional impact on Covid deaths. So far, the most common Covid vaccines used in the UK – the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech shots – reduce the risk of hospitalisation from Covid by more than 90%. As a result, the vaccination programme has driven Covid deaths down substantially, to fewer than 20 a day in the past week.

But the vaccines do much more to prevent death than transmission of the virus, so cases of Covid are expected to rise for some time yet. The larger the epidemic grows, the more chance the virus has of finding vulnerable people who have not had their shots, or are not sufficiently protected by the vaccine. While the vaccines dramatically weaken the link between cases and deaths, they are unlikely to break it entirely.

The differences between coronavirus, influenza and the vaccines that target them can easily eclipse a more fundamental issue, though. Learning to live with coronavirus as we live with flu does not mean society can take it in its stride.

Every year, a comprehensive global surveillance network detects which variants of influenza are in circulation and most likely to pose a threat in the following season. That information determines which strains go into the annual flu vaccines that are then rolled out in established campaigns. Throughout the flu season, public health authorities issue case counts and if needed, update their advice on medical care.

There is no such global system for coronavirus yet. And despite the well-oiled machine that protects the world from flu, the death toll from the virus in a typical year is still substantial. Every winter, flu puts enormous stress on the NHS, at times pushing it to breaking point. For the health service, living with coronavirus means learning to endure a double wave each winter as coronavirus and flu arrive together.

 

 

[KrefelderFox666]

20 minutes ago, reynard said:

Truth is it does and not always the overweight or those with underlying health conditions.

In a recent interview GB tennis player Maia Lumsden (mid ranking pro in her mid 20s so physically in good shape) revealed

On returning from Istanbul last year she started feeling unwell and tested positive for covid. She says it has taken months for her health to improve been pretty much bed bound. She was fearful her tennis career was over, as walking up the stairs saw her heart rate go up to 160. Every time she started to feel better she tried to do light exercise but she'd have a relapse and it would send her back to bed.

"The first few months were really difficult because I was stuck in bed and couldn't do anything," she says.

"It was pretty scary because no one could tell me when things were going to get better and it was basically just a waiting game. That was the hardest thing, not having any timeline for recovery.

"I definitely had moments when I wondered if I'd ever get back playing. When I couldn't see any improvement, I really wondered if I would ever get back."

She has returned to light training but is taking things slowly to avoid a relapse.

 

And you are  correct. This is basically a big experiment that is going to take place in England. We are going to see massive hikes in the numbers of infections across the country and hope that vaccines remain effective in preventing hospitalisations but with virtually no knowledge about the potential long term effects of even short term exposure to the virus.

Of course society needs to learn to live and cope with this illness but it is still a gamble.  I note that Israel has now returned to compelling people to wear masks in certain situations having previously stated it wasn't required.

I think there is a fair chance that some restrictions will come back later in the year.

As this is still all so new, it's really hard to say what the long term impacts of having had COVID will be. It will take a few more years before the data can be assessed.

 

I have personally noticed that I get a lot of sore throats, coughs (cold type symptoms) recently, on a bit of a cycle. Few weeks normal, then week with symptoms, then repeat. Either this is attributable to "long COVID" or just a coincidence that I am getting lots of different colds.

 

However, I am out a lot less than pre-2019 and I never used to get ill much, A cold/fever once or twice a year max.

[Voll Blau]

Christ, I do hope the scruffy bastard has finally got it right with this one and I can forever erase the phrase "socially distanced, of course" from my memory.

[SpacedX]

11 hours ago, Otis said:

You're not allowed to compare it with flu on here. People get really touchy about it. 

 

Nobody "gets touchy", they simply correct you - why yet again are you intent on polarising this thread? 

 

SARS-CoV-19 is not influenza, which means that health authorities need to respond in a different way and employ different strategies. Can't be arsed to go through this all yet again, but perhaps there is the vaguest glimmer of hope that this will finally help to dispel your incredulity:

 

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.html

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30577-4/fulltext

 

11 hours ago, Otis said:

even those who have been doubled jabbed are scared sh1tless and want to selfishly impose restrictions on those who want to get on with life. 

What???? 

[Md9]

Timed opening up with schools closing for 6 weeks maybe hoping cases go down a bit now  the kids won’t be cramped in class rooms all day. 

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

Has anything changed recently? My partners auntie and her 4 children arrived in the uk at the weekend from St George, Utah. 

Not much has changed recently.  People from the EU and from the UK aren't allowed to enter the USA under US rules.  People from the USA are allowed to enter Europe and the UK.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

21 minutes ago, Md9 said:

Timed opening up with schools closing for 6 weeks maybe hoping cases go down a bit now  the kids won’t be cramped in class rooms all day. 

Witty referenced this as a reason to open up now and not later.

[KFS]

1 hour ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

Has anything changed recently? My partners auntie and her 4 children arrived in the uk at the weekend from St George, Utah. 

As of July 19th it will be much easier now per Boris’ announcement. The big looming elephant in the room is that American citizens can leave the US and go pretty much everywhere and return without quarantine if doubly vaccinated. The US however is shut to visa holders and ‘tourists’ but that includes people who have homes, jobs, American kids and also family who cannot visit.
 

You have to basically weigh up if you want to leave the US on your visa and not come back, risking employment prospects etc. The only way back in for a visa holding or non citizen family member from Britain into the US is to quarantine in Mexico for 15 days and then enter the US. Mexico’s vaccination rate is 24% while the U.K. is 64% and the comparative case load of the two countries means that it’s much more dangerous to do that than if Biden just opened the borders. He’s a politician by the way who I quote as saying ‘travel bans don’t stop Covid’ and then signed one into power 24 hours in office.

 

Fauci last week quoted that the vaccine I have is known to be protective for at least 8 months and 96% effective against delta. So you can imagine my frustration that my doubly vaccinated parents aren’t allowed to enter the US from Britain to meet their grandson, all the while the colour of a passport means others can come and go as they please.

[martyn]

So Prof Neil Ferguson has had his say again this morning 

 

Assume those who've pilloried everything he's said will suggest we should do the opposite, right?

[Super_horns]

Should we not be surprised if there are further restrictions and even a lockdown come winter time?

 

Feel this isn’t the last we we have seen of such a situation.

[KrefelderFox666]

2 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Should we not be surprised if there are further restrictions and even a lockdown come winter time?

 

Feel this isn’t the last we we have seen of such a situation.

Something would have to go horribly wrong for another lockdown (e.g. vaccines ineffective). I can imagine some slight restrictions being imposed during the winter months (e.g. masks indoors again, some limits on gatherings indoors). It's a complete unknown but my feeling is (and my hope) that lockdowns are no longer required. Not sure how much longer people could live in limbo if something new came out every couple of years.

[Innovindil]

7 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Should we not be surprised if there are further restrictions and even a lockdown come winter time?

 

Feel this isn’t the last we we have seen of such a situation.

I would be surprised. The vaccines are working. The vast majority of hospital cases are unvaccinated people. Surely as more get jabbed or build natural immunity through infection then hospital admissions will fall even if cases rise. Only real trouble is another variant, which means sod all to our freedoms considering we're letting in every Tom dick and Harry anyways. 

 

 

 

[Super_horns]

Yes thinking more of minor restrictions rather than a full blown lockdown.

 

As you say we have the vaccine and a potential booster.

 

If we start getting new variants causing problems then guess we are kind of back to square one so hopefully won’t happen .

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

Was hoping it got delayed, got a stag do the first weekend after the lifting and it now includes some clubs reopening party. Don’t think I’ve enjoyed going to a nightclub since I was 20 and the last thing I want to do is go into one now surrounded by uncouth diseased people

Ha, my rearranged stag is also the first weekend after the lifting. 

 

Thankfully, as far as I'm aware, it doesn't include any clubbing. 

[Otis]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Nobody "gets touchy", they simply correct you - why yet again are you intent on polarising this thread? 

 

SARS-CoV-19 is not influenza, which means that health authorities need to respond in a different way and employ different strategies. Can't be arsed to go through this all yet again, but perhaps there is the vaguest glimmer of hope that this will finally help to dispel your incredulity:

 

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.html

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30577-4/fulltext

 

What???? 

😂

I didn't say it was flu. Although apparently the flu is currently causing more deaths than Covid at the moment. 

Edited 6 July 2021 by Otis

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Nobody "gets touchy", they simply correct you - why yet again are you intent on polarising this thread? 

 

SARS-CoV-19 is not influenza, which means that health authorities need to respond in a different way and employ different strategies. Can't be arsed to go through this all yet again, but perhaps there is the vaguest glimmer of hope that this will finally help to dispel your incredulity:

 

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.html

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30577-4/fulltext

 

What???? 

They're obviously not the same but they are similar in the way they spread and consequently what part of the body they affect and how they attack it , it's just covid is a new virus that humans have no defense mechanism against and flu has been around for years so we have acquired a level of immunity to it. In ten years time, will covid be a problem to us? doubt it and  I'm fairly sure that if covid had been amongst us for a long time and flu was a new virus, the roles would be reversed. 

[Otis]

10 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

They're obviously not the same but they are similar in the way they spread and consequently what part of the body they affect and how they attack it , it's just covid is a new virus that humans have no defense mechanism against and flu has been around for years so we have acquired a level of immunity to it. In ten years time, will covid be a problem to us? doubt it and  I'm fairly sure that if covid had been amongst us for a long time and flu was a new virus, the roles would be reversed. 

Quite right. We will live with this like we do the flu, in respect that the most vulnerable will choose to have an annual vaccine. 

[yorkie1999]

24 minutes ago, Otis said:

Quite right. We will live with this like we do the flu, in respect that the most vulnerable will choose to have an annual vaccine. 

To me, the only difference between the 1918 Spanish flu and this pandemic is our ability to communicate and pass on information through world wide media. All the facts and figures and studies and charts and everything else that has suddenly turned everyone into scientists and mathematicians would have been exactly the same if we had our current technologies and media outlets a  100 years ago. In fact, if you read this with a view to removing our current technologies in media and medical advances, you'd think "fvck me, this is almost describing what we have now". In 100 years time, will people be describing this pandemic as the chinese flu.

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

Edited 6 July 2021 by yorkie1999

[String fellow]

It's less than 6 weeks until City's first home super-spreader event of the season, when we'll perhaps be able to catch more than just the football action. The most appropriate one would probably be the Kappa (KP) variant! 

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, Otis said:

😂

I didn't say it was flu. 

To remind you, here's what you actually said...

 

13 hours ago, Otis said:

You're not allowed to compare it with flu on here. 

You can do whatever you want, but it's a different virus demanding a different response and healthcare strategies. What's the point? However I would point out that repeatedly the same people have made the dangerous and erroneous claim that "Covid-19 is no worse than the flu". 

 

What I would also add, it that the exit wave/ possible third wave of Delta colliding with flu season is a concern, which is one of the reasons why relaxing restrictions in July and waiting any longer could make the situation worse - extending the exit wave into the autumn when schools are back and the flu season is getting under way. None of this is without risks. If infection rates keep rising and that wall of immunity is slow to kick in there are many in the population that are susceptible and this could place increasing pressure on local health services. 

 

9 minutes ago, Otis said:

Although apparently the flu is currently causing more deaths than Covid at the moment. 

The vaccination programme has caused covid related death rates to plummet in addition to hospitalisations, despite case rates being at 20,000 per day and rising. 

 

This is entirely possible. Do you have a legitimate source?

 

6 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

They're obviously not the same but they are similar in the way they spread and consequently what part of the body they affect and how they attack it

Whilst both can be contracted through close contact from respiratory droplets, Covid-19 is more likely to spread through airborne transmission. Also the incubation period is completely different. The discrepancy between these incubation periods is because of the way each virus attaches itself to the cells and means instead of the 2-3 days you would associate with influenza, it could be up to a fortnight with coronavirus. Covid-19 can be carried asymptomatically throughout this period and transmitted through superspreading events. Furthermore, since they are different viruses, contrary to your claim, they behave differently in the body and the comorbidities differ. Patients with covid-19 had almost 19 times the risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) than did patients with influenza and more than twice the risk for myocarditis, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, intracranial hemorrhage, acute hepatitis/liver failure, bacteremia, and pressure ulcers.

 

Covid-19 patients were five times as likely to die as flu patients (21% versus 3.8% of patients). During both waves, hospital stays of covid-19 patients were almost three times as long as those of flu patients, and they were twice as likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit which has meant that the clinical burden is far higher. 

 

Covid-19 patients had a higher risk of respiratory complications than flu patients: twice the risk of pneumonia, 1.7 times the risk of respiratory failure, 19 times the risk of ARDS, and 3.5 times the risk of pneumothorax. The risk of some acute non-respiratory complications, such as sepsis and renal and cardiovascular complications, was also higher among covid-19 patients.

 

There is also emerging evidence that antibodies for influenza last longer than SARS-CoV-2, although it is too early to draw conclusions. Add to this, Long Covid to contend with - although the risks of this are far from fully understood.

 

32 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

it's just covid is a new virus that humans have no defense mechanism against and flu has been around for years 

Yes, there is little preexisting immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Through vaccinations and previous infections, a portion of the population has some immunity to influenza, which helps limit the number of cases we see each year.

 

36 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

 In ten years time, will covid be a problem to us? doubt it and  I'm fairly sure that if covid had been amongst us for a long time and flu was a new virus, the roles would be reversed. 

SARS-CoV-19 will continue to be a global issue until vaccinations worldwide are able to tame it. The more people that are infected, the more variants will emerge. These may contain mutations that are capable of evading vaccines. Coronavirus will never be eradicated because it exists on many vectors, but in some parts of the world it will in time be controlled, driven down and eliminated. 

 

[Otis]

6 minutes ago, Line-X said:

To remind you, here's what you actually said...

 

14 hours ago, Otis said:

You're not allowed to compare it with flu on here. 

I did not say it was flu. All I said is that some people get touchy when they say it is flu.

[Otis]

10 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Furthermore, since they are different viruses, contrary to your claim,

No. Again i did not say they were the same.